Initiatives in Strategic Studies: Issues and Policies

Transcription

1 PROLIFERATION OF WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION IN THE MIDDLE EAST

2 Initiatives in Strategic Studies: Issues and Policies James J. Wirtz General Editor Jeffrey A. Larsen T.V. Paul Brad Roberts James M. Smith Series Editors Initiatives in Strategic Studies provides a bridge between the use of force or diplomacy and the achievement of political objectives. This series focuses on the topical and timeless issues relating to strategy, including the nexus of political, diplomatic, psychological, economic, cultural, historic and military affairs. It provides a link between the scholarly and policy communities by serving as the recognized forum for conceptually sophisticated analyses of timely and important strategic issues.

3 PROLIFERATION OF WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION IN THE MIDDLE EAST: DIRECTIONS AND POLICY OPTIONS IN THE NEW CENTURY James A. Russell

4 PROLIFERATION OF WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION IN THE MIDDLE EAST James A. Russell, Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition All rights reserved. No part of this book may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical articles or reviews. First published in 2006 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, N.Y and Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire, England RG21 6XS Companies and representatives throughout the world. PALGRAVE MACMILLAN is the global academic imprint of the Palgrave Macmillan division of St. Martin s Press, LLC and of Palgrave Macmillan Ltd. Macmillan is a registered trademark in the United States, United Kingdom and other countries. Palgrave is a registered trademark in the European Union and other countries. ISBN ISBN (ebook) DOI / Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Proliferation of weapons of mass destruction in the Middle East : directions and policy options in the new century / James A. Russell. p. cm. Essays originally presented at a conference held at the Naval Postgraduate School in June Includes bibliographical references and index. 1. Weapons of mass destruction Middle East. 2. Nuclear nonproliferation Middle East. 3. Arms control Middle East. 4. Middle East Military policy. I. Russell, James A. (James Avery), 1958 U793.P dc A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. Design by Newgen Imaging Systems (P) Ltd., Chennai, India. First edition: January

5 CONTENTS Foreword Acknowledgments Abbreviations vii ix xi 1. Introduction 1 James A. Russell Theoretical Overview 2. Proliferation, Asymmetric War, and the Contemporary Threat Environment 11 Stephen Blank Middle East Case Studies 3. Continuity and Change in Israeli Strategic Thinking: Reflections in the Wake of Operation Iraqi Freedom 33 Avner Cohen 4. Iran at the Strategic Crossroads 51 Ray Takeyh 5. Syrian WMD Programs in Context 63 Murhaf Jouejati 6. Syrian Weapons of Mass Destruction 73 Ahmed S. Hashim 7. A.Q. Khan, Proliferation Networks, and the Nuclear Slippery Slope 93 Christopher Clary 8. Saudi Arabia in the Twenty-First Century: A New Security Calculus? 115 James A. Russell 9. Saudi Arabia: The Nuclear Conundrum 133 Glen M. Segell 10. Tracking and Assessing Nuclear Issues in Open Sources: The Case of Libya 145 Wyn Q. Bowen

6 vi CONTENTS Policy Implications 11. Iraq and Libya: Nonproliferation through Regime Change or Change in a Regime? 167 Robert S. Litwak 12. Counterproliferation versus Nonproliferation in the Middle East after Saddam: Lessons from Iraq and Libya 183 Michael Friend 13. A Demand-Side Strategy for Regional Security and Nonproliferation in the Persian Gulf 203 Michael Ryan Kraig and Riad Kahwaji 14. Cooperative Threat Reduction at the Next Phase 223 Rose Gottemoeller About the Contributors 233 Index 235

7 FOREWORD The nexus between international terrorism, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD), and the countries of the Middle East has emerged as one of the most troubling security issues of the twenty-first century. The reality of this issue is highly complex. The international community has experienced some recent success in stemming the spread of chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons in the region. A.Q. Khan s clandestine effort to sell nuclear-weapon technology and technical assistance has been shut down. Libya also has abandoned its nuclear-weapons program. These achievements, however, have not extended to other important actors in the region. Iran has defied the nonproliferation regime by continuing to build a nuclear-weapons program, and there is a growing concern that it is only a matter of time before terrorists acquire and use a rudimentary chemical, biological, or radiological device. Israel retains its policy of deliberate ambiguity when it comes to its nuclear capability, leaving scholars to assess the impact of Tel Aviv s policies on the region. The counterproliferation war fought by a U.S. led coalition against Iraq also has turned into a source of embarrassment. Although the second Gulf war succeeded in eliminating the threat posed by Saddam Hussein s regime, it now appears that the U.S. intelligence community greatly overestimated Iraq s programs to build WMD while it underestimated the apparent effectiveness of international policies to constrain Iraq s weapons programs. The challenges posed by the presence of WMD programs in the Middle East are highly nuanced. This nuance is reflected in this outstanding collection of analytical compositions, WMD Proliferation in the Middle East: Trends and Policy Options in the Twenty-First Century. James Russell and his contributors take a fresh and balanced look at the proliferation issue in the Middle East, seeking to generate theoretically informed policy prescriptions that can help reduce the danger posed by the spread of WMD in this volatile region. By exploring a variety of case studies from several theoretical perspectives, Russell and the contributors to the volume make a much needed contribution to our understanding of the threat of WMD in the Middle East today. James J. Wirtz, General Editor Initiatives in Strategic Studies: Issues and Policies

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9 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The chapters in this volume were initially presented at a conference in Monterey, California, hosted by the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) in June 2004 and sponsored by the Advanced Systems Concept Office in the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA-ASCO). Dave Hamon at ASCO deserves credit for allowing NPS to sponsor the conference, and for supporting the research all the authors put into this valuable project. The conference was an overwhelming success, providing a forum for experts from widely diverse backgrounds to discuss their perspectives on the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction in the Middle East. Special thanks to my research assistant at NPS, Ms. Lashley Pulsipher, who helped ensure the flawless execution of the conference and the subsequent follow-up with the authors over the next several months. Thanks, too, to Dr. Jeff Larsen and his team at Larsen Consulting Group for their excellent work in editing and preparing the manuscript. Finally, thanks to David Pervin at Palgrave Macmillan for his support, patience, and recognition that this important topic deserved to be brought to print.

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11 ABBREVIATIONS ABM Treaty ADI BCCI BW BWC CBRN CBW CIA CTBT CTR CW CWC DoD DOE EIA EU FDO FSB FY GCC GDP IAEA ILSA IMF IRC IW KRL MEPI MTCR NASR NATO NBC NBSR NIS NPT NSC Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty Arab Development Institute Bank of Credit and Commerce International Biological Weapons Biological Weapons Convention Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear Weapons Chemical and Biological Warfare / Warfare Central Intelligence Agency Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Cooperative Threat Reduction Chemical Weapons Chemicals Weapons Conventions Department of Defense Department of Energy Energy Information Administration European Union Fysisch Dynamisch Onderzoekslaboratorium (Physical Dynamic Research) Federal Security Service Fiscal Year Gulf Cooperation Council Gross Domestic Product International Atomic Energy Agency Iran Libya Sanctions Act International Monetary Fund Industrial Research Centre Information Warfare Khan Research Laboratories Laboratory Middle East Partnership Initiative Missile Technology Control Regime National Authority (Academy) for Scientific Research North Atlantic Treaty Organization Nuclear, Biological, or Chemical National Board for Scientific Research Newly Independent States Non-Proliferation Treaty National Security Council

12 xii OPEC PAEC PSI RMA SAAF SANG SCOPE START TNRC UNC UNMOVIC UNSCOM UNSCR URENCO VMF WMD ABBREVIATIONS Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission Proliferation Security Initiative Revolutions in Military Affairs Saudi Arabian Armed Forces Saudi National Guard Scomi Precision Engineering Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty Tajura Nuclear Research Center Ultra-Centrifuge Nederland United Nations Monitoring and Verification Commission UN Special Commission United Nations Security Council Resolution Uranium Enrichment Consortium Verenigde Machinefabrieken (United Machine Factory) Weapons of Mass Destruction