Iran's Military Forces and Warfighting Capabilities

Transcription

1 A/ Iran's Military Forces and Warfighting Capabilities The Threat in the Northern Gulf Anthony H. Cordesman and Martin Kleiber Published in cooperation with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington, D.C. PRAEGER SECURITY INTERNATIONAL Westport, Connecticut London

2 Contents FIGURES ix CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 1 INTENTIONS VERSUS CAPABILITIES IN A DIVIDED STATE 1 The Uncertain Voices of Iran's Leaders 2 Iran's Military Exercises 15 Iran's "Traveling Circus(es) " of Security Voices 20 EXTERNAL SOURCES OF INSTABILITY 21 Strategic Uncertainty and the Gulf 23 The Problem of the United States and Israel 24 FOCUSING ON CAPABILITIES RATHER THAN ON INTENTIONS 25 CHAPTER 2: IRAN'S CHANGING ROLE IN REGIONAL SECURITY 27 CHAPTER 3: MILITARY SPENDING, ARMS IMPORTS, AND 30 MILITARY MANNING IRANIAN MILITARY SPENDING AND ARMS IMPORTS 30 IRANIAN MILITARY MANPOWER 35 CHAPTER 4: THE IRANIAN ARMY 40 IRANIAN TANK STRENGTH 41 Iran's Most Modern Tanks 45 Holdings of Older Tanks 46 OTHER IRANIAN ARMOR 47 IRANIAN ANTI-ARMOR WEAPONS 53 IRANIAN ARTILLERY STRENGTH 54

3 VI CONTENTS Holdings of Tube Artillery 56 Multiple Rocket Launchers 59 Modern Targeting and Fire-Control Systems and Artillery Tactics 61 IRANIAN ARMY AIR-DEFENSE SYSTEMS 62 IRANIAN ARMY AVIATION 64 IRANIAN ARMY UNMANNED AERIAL VEHICLES 64 IRANIAN ARMY'S COMMAND, CONTROL, COMMUNICATIONS, COMPUTERS, 65 AND INTELLIGENCE FORCE TRENDS AND SUMMARY CAPABILITIES 66 CHAPTER 5: THE ISLAMIC REVOLUTIONARY GUARDS CORPS 73 (PASDARAN) IRGC LAND FORCES 74 THE IRGC AIR FORCE 77 THE IRGC NAVAL FORCES 77 PROXY AND COVERT CBRN OPERATIONS 77 THE AL QUDS (QODS) FORCE 78 THE BASIJ 81 ROLE IN IRAN'S INDUSTRIES 82 OTHER PARAMILITARY FORCES 83 CHAPTER 6: THE IRANIAN AIR FORCE 84 IRANIAN AIR STRENGTH 85 Force Quantity 87 Force Quality 91 Mission Capability 92 Airlift and Support Capability 92 IRGC Air Units 92 Air Weaponry 93 IRANIAN AIRCRAFT DEVELOPMENT 93 IRANIAN AIR FORCE READINESS AND EFFECTIVENESS 94 IRANIAN LAND-BASED AIR DEFENSE 97 FORCE TRENDS AND SUMMARY CAPABILITIES 103 CHAPTER 7: THE IRANIAN NAVY 108 MAJOR SURFACE SHIPS 112 IRAN'S SUBMARINE FORCES 113 ANTI-SHIP MISSILES AND SMALLER MISSILE CRAFT 116 OTHER PATROL BOATS AND SURFACE CRAFT 119 IRANIAN MINE WARFARE CAPABILITIES 119 IRANIAN AMPHIBIOUS ASSETS 120 IRANIAN NAVAL AIR 121 THE ROLE OF THE NAVAL BRANCH OF THE IRGC 123 NAVAL FORCE DEPLOYMENTS 125 FORCE TRENDS AND SUMMARY CAPABILITIES 125

4 CONTENTS Vll CHAPTER 8: PARAMILITARY, INTERNAL SECURITY, AND 129 INTELLIGENCE FORCES THE MINISTRY OF INTELLIGENCE AND SECURITY 131 THE IRGC INTELLIGENCE BRANCH 131 THE BASIJ RESISTANCE FORCE 132 THE UNCERTAIN ROLE OF THE MINISTRY OF INTERIOR 132 CHAPTER 9: IRAN'S LONG-RANGE MISSILE ARSENAL 134 SHAHAB-1/SCUD-B 136 SHAHAB-2/SCUD-C 139 SHAHAB Missile Development 142 Uncertain Performance 144 Mobility and Deployment 147 SHAHAB-3A/3M/3D/IRIS 148 SHAHAB SHAHAB-5 AND SHAHAB SATELLITE LAUNCH VEHICLE 151 CSS-8 OR TONDAR BM-25/SS-N GHADR 101 AND GHADR RADUGA KH-55 GRANAT/KH-55/AS- 15 KENT 154 M-9 AND M-11 MISSILES 15 5 FURTHER DEVELOPMENTS 156 CHAPTER 10: IRAN'S WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION 157 PROGRAM: CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS CHEMICAL WEAPONS 157 Official Estimates of Iranian Capability 158 Arms Control Estimates of Iranian Capability 159 NGO Estimates of Iranian Capability 160 BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS 161 Possible Early Indicators That Iran Might Have a BW Program 162 The Uncertain Nature of Iran's BW Program Since the Mid-1990s 163 Continuing Alarms and Excursions 163 The Possible Role of Outside Suppliers 163 POSSIBLE CBW WARFIGHTING CAPABILITY 164 CHAPTER 11: POSSIBLE NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAMS 169 PROBLEMS IN ANALYZING IRAN'S WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION (WMD) 173 PROGRAM: A CASE STUDY Uncertainty and Credibility of Sources 175 Key Uncertainties in Iran's Nuclear Developments 177 PLUTONIUM PRODUCTION 177 Uranium Enrichment 180

5 Vlll CONTENTS The Centrifuge Challenge 181 Laser Isotope Separation 186 Other Aspects of Iranian Activity 188 Iranian Commitment to Nuclear Power Programs 191 A CONTINUING PROCESS OF DISCOVERY 192 CHAPTER 12: IRAN'S STRATEGIC CAPABILITIES AND THE 195 POSSIBLE RESPONSE IRAN'S CONVENTIONAL WEAKNESSES AND STRENGTHS 196 Iran's Limited Conventional Offensive Capabilities 196 Iran as a Defensive Power 198 Iran's Conventional Forces and Iraq 198 IRAN AS AN ASYMMETRIC THREAT 199 The Iranian Threat in the Gulf 199 "Closing the Gulf?" 200 Other Contingencies 201 IRAN'S USE OF STATE AND NONSTATE ACTORS AS PROXIES AND PARTNERS 202 "Proxies" and "Partners" 202 The Strengths and Weaknesses of Such Operations 203 The Iraq Option 204 IRAN AS A NUCLEAR POWER ARMED WITH LONG-RANGE MISSILES 209 Sanctions and Economic Vulnerability 210 Petroleum Sanctions 211 Petroleum and Product Sanctions 213 Financial Sanctions 214 If Iran Becomes a Serious Nuclear Power 215 IRAN AS A RELIGIOUS AND IDEOLOGICAL THREAT IN A REGION AND AN ISLAMIC 216 WORLD POLARIZED ALONG SECTARIAN LINES LIMITING IRAN'S CURRENT AND FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES FOR OPPORTUNISM 218 Actions by the United States, the EU, Other Outside Powers, and the UN 218 Actions by Iran's Neighbors 221 THE WORST CASE: ISRAELI AND U.S. COUNTER-NUCLEAR STRIKES ON IRAN 222 The Problem of Targeting 223 Israeli Options 226 Possible Methods of Israeli Attack 226 Iranian Defense against Israeli (and U.S.) Strikes 231 Iranian Retaliation against Israel 232 U.S. Options against Iran 232 Possible U.S. Strike Methods 233 Possible U.S. War Plans: Attacking, Delaying, and Waiting Out 235 Iranian Retaliation against U.S. Strikes 235 No SHORT OR EASY ROAD 241 NOTES 243