Emerging WMD threats and the Proliferation of WMD material: NM Perspectives. Vahid Majidi, DASD(NM)
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1 Emerging WMD threats and the Proliferation of WMD material: NM Perspectives Vahid Majidi, DASD(NM) March 2015
2 National Preparedness Intelligence: Collection, Dissemination, Integration, Analysis and Action Preparedness Prevention Protection Mitigation Response* Recovery Policy & Planning Training/Exercises Countermeasures Intelligence Assessment Tiered Deployment NCB/NM Efforts (Deterrence, Physical Security, International Engagements, Technical Capabilities) DoD Efforts (Planning, Programs, Policy, Operations) Interagency/National Effort (Joint TF, Regional, Multi-jurisdictional) * Response is both following an incident or response to informa6on leading to interdic6on
3 Infrastructure & Vulnerability Electrical Grid Internet Subject Matter Expertise Cyber, Physical Sciences, Manufacturing Material Source Chem, Bio, Rad, Energetic Material Unique Response Capabilities Deep Water Horizon (BP) Does Industry Have A Role? 3
4 USG CWMD Team Construct DNI DOS DOE NCTC DOC OSD NCPC DIA CCMDs Treas WH DHS Joint Staff IAEA INTERPOL UN 1540 GICNT Global Partnership Nuclear Summit WINS Bi-Lateral Multi-Lateral CIA DoD NSA STIG FBI Services DTRA/ CCWMD Defense Agencies 4
5 Intelligence International Partners Commerce, DOD, DOE, DOS, FBI, Treasury DOD, DHS, FBI DOD, DOE, DOS Interdiction Nonproliferation Counterproliferation 5
6 CP Discussion Historical Perspective Case Study Counterproliferation Programs Attribution Process Community Partnership 6
7 Manhattan Project 7
8 Nuclear Programs N. Korea US Russia China Pakistan Iran Libya Iraq UK France South Africa 1994 India s 1970s 1980s 8
9 Proliferation Examples Industrial Nexus Intentional Unintentional 9
10 Proliferation Examples Ohio Russia Libya Netherlands: Urenco Iran 10
11 Dr. Gernot Zippe ( ) Invented the Zippe-Type centrifuge: The easiest way to make fuel for reactors and weapons. 11
12 Dr. Gernot Zippe Born and raised in Austria In 1945 he was kidnapped and held prisoner in the Soviet Union where he was ordered to develop a centrifuge program. Having done as he was asked, he was freed by the Soviets (1957)! 12
13 Dr. Gernot Zippe 1957, Dr. Zippe flew to the United States and set up shop at the University of Virginia. He managed to recreate the Russian centrifuge and returned to Europe in
14 Dr. Gernot Zippe In the 1960s, Dr. Zippe switched the rotor material from aluminum to maraging steel to allow for higher spin rates. Rotors were made longer, which increased the collection of U
15 Dr. Gernot Zippe In the 1970's, Urenco, a new European consortium for making nuclear fuel, adopted Zippe-type designs. Dr. A. Q. Khan worked as a consultant at a Urenco plant and stole the designs. 15
16 Dr. A. Q. Khan Proliferation 16
17 National Preparedness Intelligence: Collection, Dissemination, Integration, Analysis and Action Preparedness Prevention Protection Mitigation Response* Recovery Policy & Planning Training/Exercises Countermeasures Intelligence Assessment Tiered Deployment NCB/NM Efforts (Deterrence, Physical Security, International Engagements, Technical Capabilities) DoD Efforts (Planning, Programs, Policy, Operations) Interagency/National Effort (Joint TF, Regional, Multi-jurisdictional) * Response is both following an incident or response to informa6on leading to interdic6on 17
18 Iraq Insurgents Employ Chlorine in Bomb Attacks: February 22,
19 Gang Arrested Trying to Sell Enriched Uranium: November 29, 2007 Two Hungarians and a Ukrainian man were arrested by the Slovakian police as they tried to sell the uranium. 19
20 Preventing WMD Material Misappropriation Facility X-Int Network Infrastructure Support Finance Materials Preparedness Prevention Protection Mitigation Response* Recovery Policy & Planning Training/Exercises Countermeasures Intelligence Assessment Tiered Deployment 20
21 National Preparedness Intelligence: Collection, Dissemination, Integration, Analysis and Action Preparedness Prevention Protection Mitigation Response* Recovery Policy & Planning Training/Exercises Countermeasures Intelligence Assessment Tiered Deployment NCB/NM Efforts (Deterrence, Physical Security, International Engagements, Technical Capabilities) DoD Efforts (Planning, Programs, Policy, Operations) Interagency/National Effort (Joint TF, Regional, Multi-jurisdictional) * Response is both following an incident or response to informa6on leading to interdic6on 21
22 Nuclear Programs WMD Proliferation Develop Concept Acquire Materials and Equipment Develop Weapon Deploy Weapon Formulate Ini6al Design Acquire Fissile Material Process Fissile Material Acquire Explosives or Propellants Make Weapon Components Acquire Materials, Equipment, and Components Test Explosive and Assembly System Assemble Weapon Deploy and Detonate 22
23 The 5 Ds of CWMD Physical Security Adversary Surveillance, Plans and Preparation Intel & Warning Penetrate Boundaries Cross Security Area Penetrate Secondary Area Cross Secondary Area Enter Facility WMD Material Task 7 Task 6 Task 5 Task 4 Task 3 Task 2 Task 1 Deter Detect Delay Deny Defeat We only have to be successful once; the adversary has to be successful at every point. Preparedness Prevention Protection Mitigation Response* Recovery Policy & Planning Training/Exercises Countermeasures Intelligence Assessment Tiered Deployment 23
24 Radiological Detection System (RDS) Detect, classify, and measure radioactive materials Replaces legacy RADIAC meters Sensitivity covers operational and occupational levels and quantities Network interoperability Geographic location data enabled Autonomous and on-demand data entries, network, and information exchange Procurement planned for USA, USAF, USMC, USN Preparedness Monitoring and Verification Preparedness Prevention Protection Mitigation Response* Recovery Policy & Planning Training/Exercises Countermeasures Intelligence Assessment Tiered Deployment 24 24
25 PROJECT DISCREET OCULUS Preparedness When has something happened? Prompt diagnostics research & development project by the Defense Threat Reduction Agency. Ground-based sensor suite collects prompt outputs of a limited nuclear event in an urban environment. Measured outputs include seismic, infrasound, overpressure, electromagnetic pulse, gamma radiation, and optical signatures. Sensor readings sent to the Air Force Technical Applications Center for analysis and reporting. Preparedness Prevention Protection Mitigation Response* Recovery Policy & Planning Training/Exercises Countermeasures Intelligence Assessment Tiered Deployment 25 25
26 Preparedness Detecting What Happened Harvester Particulate Airborne Collection System (PACS) Modular air sampling capability tested on C-130 and MQ-9 aircraft. Post-collection analysis: samples prepared in a deployable clean room, radio-chemical analyses conducted at a lab. Preparedness Prevention Protection Mitigation Response* Recovery Policy & Planning Training/Exercises Countermeasures Intelligence Assessment Tiered Deployment 26 26
27 Response Use of WMD Materials Airborne Radiation Detection & Identification Measurement System (ARDIMS) Wide-area radiological reconnaissance mapping capability to support ground collection. Gamma and neutron detection pods mounted on UH-60 displays real-time gross count and dose rate and radiation mapping to inform collections. Preparedness Prevention Policy & Planning Protection Mitigation Response* Training/Exercises Countermeasures Intelligence Assessment Recovery Tiered Deployment 2727
28 Ground Collections Task Force Collect radioactive debris samples quickly and process, prepare, and package the evidence for transport to national laboratories. Response Material Collection and Analysis Equipment Mojave suits, boots, booties, gloves, M40 protective masks Ion chamber gamma detectors AN/UDR-14 dosimeters Humvee, GPS/maps, satellite phone Collection kits, marking kits Preparedness Prevention Protection Mitigation Response* Recovery Policy & Planning Training/Exercises Countermeasures Intelligence Assessment Tiered Deployment 28 28
29 Nuclear Deterrent Preparedness Material Weapon Preparedness Prevention Protection Mitigation Response* Recovery Policy & Planning Training/Exercises Assistant Secretary Countermeasures of Defense for Nuclear, Chemical, Intelligence and Biological Defense Programs Assessment Tiered Deployment 29
30 Intelligence International Partners Commerce, DOD, DOE, DOS, FBI, Treasury DOD, DHS, FBI DOD, DOE, DOS Interdiction Nonproliferation Counterproliferation 30
31 U.S. Response: Scale and Persistence Drives Lead DOD FBI Mumbai/T ( 08) Syria/Chem ( 14) 600 Sapphire /Nuke ( 94) Spain/E ( 04) Fukushima/RAD ( 11) UK/Rad ( 06) DNI W-Africa/Ebola ( 14) Tiblisi/HEU ( 06 & 09) Phuket-hurricane ( 04) 31
32 Highlighting Infrastructure Vulnerabilities 2007: Chlorine Release During Railcar Unloading 32
33 We all own this problem!! Industry Stuff & Expertise Academia USG Solution through collaboration. 33
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