THE NUCLEAR WORLD IN THE EARLY 21 ST CENTURY

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1 THE NUCLEAR WORLD IN THE EARLY 21 ST CENTURY SITUATION WHO HAS NUCLEAR WEAPONS: THE COLD WAR TODAY CURRENT THREATS TO THE U.S.: RUSSIA NORTH KOREA IRAN TERRORISTS METHODS TO HANDLE THE THREATS: DETERRENCE BI-LATERAL TREATIES MULTI-LATERAL TREATIES NON-PROLIFERATION TREATY

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5 CURRENT THREATS RUSSIA DETERIORATION OF U.S.-RUSSIAN RELATIONS APPARENT MUTUAL INCREASE IN RELIANCE ON NUCLEAR WEAPONS NEW ARMS RACE? NORTH KOREA NOW ARMED WITH NUCLEAR WEAPONS IRAN COMPLYING WITH PLAN OF ACTION, BLOCKING PATH FOR YEARS TERRORISTS NONE IN HAND, BUT NO GUARANTEE

6 HOW TO DETER OR DEFEND? DETERRENCE I WILL MAKE YOU WISH YOU HAD NOT SHOT FIRST. ANTI-BALLISTIC MISSILE DEFENSE I CAN STOP WHAT YOU SHOOT.

7 MUTUAL ASSURED DETERRENCE MUTUAL ASSURED DETERRENCE IS WHERE TWO STATES DETER EACH OTHER FROM THE FIRST USE OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS. MUTUAL ASSURED DETERRENCE REQUIRES THAT BOTH STATES HAVE A SECOND STRIKE CAPABILITY. FIRST USE FIRST STRIKE CAPABILITY SECOND STRIKE CAPABLITY

8 BUT ALL DELIVERY SYSTEMS ARE NOT MISSILES OR CARRIED BY AIRCRAFT CONCERN FOR THE TERRORIST FOR INSTANCE: SUITCASE SIZED ON CONTAINER SHIPS

9 TWO KINDS OF ARMS CONTROL AGREEMENTS TREATIES, SUCH AS BETWEEN THE US AND THE USSR/RUSSIA AND THE IRAN AGREEMENT ANTI-BALLISTIC MISSILE TREATY (ABM) ( ) INTERMEDIATE RANGE NUCLEAR FORCES TREATY (INF) (1987) NEW STRATEGIC ARMS REDUCTION TREATY (START) (2011) THE NUCLEAR NON-PROLIFERATION TREATY (NPT), AMONG SOME 170 STATES

10 THE KEY ELEMENTS OF THE NPT (I) ^ NUCLEAR WEAPON STATES (NWS) AND THE NON-NUCLEAR WEAPON STATES (NNWS) ^ THE NWS AGREED NOT TO HELP THE NNWS GET NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND THE NNWS AGREED NOT TO ACQUIRE THEM. ^ ALL STATES CAN SEEK TO USE NUCLEAR ENERGY FOR PEACEFUL PURPOSES

11 THE KEY ELEMENTS OF THE NPT (II) ^ THE STATES, SPECIFICALLY THE US AND THE USSR/RUSSIA, COMMIT TO NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT. ^ THE NNWS MUST ACCEPT INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY (IAEA) MONITORING. ^ A STATE CAN WITHDRAW WITH THREE MONTH S ADVANCE NOTICE.

12 THE NPT HAS BEEN A SUCCESS TO DATE, BUT: STOPPING NORTH KOREA S NUCLEAR AND MISSILE CAPABILITIES BLOCKING IRAN S PATH TO NUCLEAR WEAPONS REDUCING INCENTIVES FOR OTHER STATES TO GO NUCLEAR SOUTH KOREA, JAPAN, SAUDI ARABIA DISCOURAGING THE SPREAD OF ENRICHMENT AND REPROCESSING CAPABILITIES STRENGTHENING NPT TOOLS EXPORT CONTROLS INTERDICTIONS IAEA SAFEGUARDS: VERIFICATION TECHNIQUES AND SPECIAL INSPECTIONS SHARING INTELLIGENCE BETTER ASSIST STATES WITH CONTROLS REINFORCING THE NPT CONCERN FOR TREATY TO BAN NUCLEAR WRAPONS US AND RUSSIA S COMITMENT TO CONTINUE TO REDUCE WEAPONS FIX NPT WITHDRAWAL CLAUSE

13 REDUCING INCENTIVES FOR OTHER STATES TO GO NUCLEAR Fear or Perceived need: (1) States facing major conventional security threats. (2) States fearing nuclear preemption. Capability: (1) economic capacity (2) technology to manufacture nuclear weapons (3) nuclear fissile materials available

14 WHY NO ZERO NUCLEAR WEAPONS? THE BAN NUCLEAR WEAPONS TREATY DEVELOPED IN THE UN WOULD: WEAKEN THE CURRENT NPT, WHICH IS WORKING ADEQAUTELY AND DELEGITIMIZE THE NUCLEAR UMBRELLA (EXTENDED DETERENCE) THE US HAS FOR SOME STATES. IN OTHER WORDS, WOULD BE DESTABILIZING. THE CRITICAL ISSUE OF CREDIBILITY AND VERIFICATION.

15 I BELIEVE IN YOUR LIFETIME IT IS LIKELY THAT A NUCLEAR WEAPON WILL BE USED AGAINST THE UNITED STATES. UNLESS WE EFFECTIVELY MANAGE THE NUCLEAR NON-PROLIFERATION TREATY AND PROCESS.

16 ONE OF TWO TASKS IN ESSAY SET #IX MON 2 APR Topic: The Nuclear World in 2017 My website: Arms Control Association, Nuclear Weapons Who Has Then at a Glance, Jan 2017 My website: Brookings, Einhorn, Non-Proliferation Challenges Facing the Trump Administration, March 2017, introduction and sections 1, 2, 3, 4. 5 & 7. (NOTE THE ADDITION.) My website: Union of Concerned Scientists, Trump s Nuclear Posture Review: Top Take-Aways 2 Feb (50) In a one-page essay, describe the non-proliferation challenges facing this administration as discussed in the Brookings article in its first paragraph and in sections 3, 4, 5 & 7.

17 THE NPT HAS BEEN A SUCCESS TO DATE, BUT: STOPPING NORTH KOREA S NUCLEAR AND MISSILE CAPABILITIES BLOCKING IRAN S PATH TO NUCLEAR WEAPONS REDUCING INCENTIVES FOR OTHER STATES TO GO NUCLEAR SOUTH KOREA, JAPAN, SAUDI ARABIA DISCOURAGING THE SPREAD OF ENRICHMENT AND REPROCESSING CAPABILITIES STRENGTHENING NPT TOOLS EXPORT CONTROLS INTERDICTIONS IAEA SAFEGUARDS: VERIFICATION TECHNIQUES AND SPECIAL INSPECTIONS SHARING INTELLIGENCE BETTER ASSIST STATES WITH CONTROLS REINFORCING THE NPT CONCERN FOR TREATY TO BAN NUCLEAR WRAPONS US AND RUSSIA S COMITMENT TO CONTINUE TO REDUCE WEAPONS FIX NPT WITHDRAWAL CLAUSE