SEEK NZ Employment Indicators, November 2010

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1 SEEK NZ Employment Indicators, November 21 Commentary The SEEK Employment Indicators suggest that the job market in New Zealand stabilised in November 21 after the big jump in new job ads registered with SEEK in October, associated with the Canterbury reconstruction program. New job ads fell by.8% in November following a (revised) increase of 5.% in October, and were 25.2% higher than a year earlier. The SEEK Employment Index - the ratio of new job ads placed with SEEK during the month to the number of applications for those jobs rose by.5% in November following a (revised) increase of 5.3% in October, and was 23.3% higher than a year earlier. Over the past few months the strength of the New Zealand job market has been concentrated in the Canterbury region and in Auckland. Over the three months to November 21 new job ads (seasonally adjusted) rose by 1.3% in Canterbury and 4.7% in Auckland, but fell in Wellington (-1.5%) and in other regions. Over the same period the SEEK Employment Index rose by 8.4% in Canterbury and by 7.4% in Auckland, but fell in Wellington by 1.7% and in other regions. It is notable that the markedly higher readings for both indicators in October were broadly maintained in November, as the New Zealand economy continues to navigate what the Governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has recently referred to as the aftershocks of the global financial crisis, namely the sharp changes in exchange rates and the sovereign debt crisis in Europe. It seems clear that the pace of recovery in the New Zealand economy from the recession, while continuing, has become much more subdued, in part as a result of these aftershocks. This is evident in Figure 1A, which shows the moving three month percentage change in new job ads and in the employment index for New Zealand since January 21. On this quarterly basis, both indicators have continued to rise in recent months, but at much lower rates than earlier in the recovery process. The current state of the labour market can also be illustrated by placing it in a somewhat longer term context. New jobs ads in November 21 were still 21.% below their level in November 26, before the boom had developed its full momentum, and 38.5% below their peak in the boom in February 28. Reflecting the continued growth in job applicants, the Employment Index in November 26 was 46.8% lower than in November 26 and 58.1% below its January 28 peak. These data again illustrate the limited and incomplete nature of the recovery that has occurred to this time. This is in contrast with the stronger recovery that has occurred in Australia where new job ads in November 21 were 9.1% higher than in November 26. Professor Peter Sheehan Director, Centre for Strategic Economic Studies Victoria University

2 Rate of change (%) Figure A1: Growth in SEEK New Job Ads and the SEEK Employment Index in the recovery, New Zealand (moving three monthly per cent change, seasonally adjusted) 2 15 SEEK New Job Ads SEEK Employment index 1 5 Jan-1 Feb-1 Mar-1 Apr-1 May-1 Jun-1 Jul-1 Aug-1 Sep-1 Oct-1 Nov-1-5 The SEEK Employment Index The SEEK Employment Index is the first New Zealand indicator to measure labour market supply and compare this against labour market demand. Each monthly release includes two key indicators: 1. The SEEK Employment Index (SEEK EI), a dynamic snapshot of matching between the supply of jobseekers and demand for workers (i.e., the ratio of new job advertisements posted on the SEEK website to job applications for those SEEK job ads); and 2. Candidate Demand, as measured by new job advertisements posted on the SEEK website; These indicators provide useful insights into the dynamics of the New Zealand labour market. For further explanation on the applications of use please refer to the SEEK Employment Index launch document available at

3 Figure 1. SEEK Employment Index (January 22 = 1), seasonally adjusted 8 Tightening labour market Trend Seas. Adj. Softening labour market Nov-6 Nov-7 Nov-8 Nov-9 Nov-1 The seasonally adjusted SEEK Employment Indicator (SEI) - the ratio of new job ads placed with SEEK during the month to the number of applications for those jobs increased by.5% in November 21. As a result, the SEI is 23.3% higher than the same month last year. The national increase in the SEI was entirely driven by a solid rise in Auckland (4.3%), that more than offset declines in all other regions: Wellington (-1%), the rest of North Island (-4.5%), Canterbury (-.5%) and other regions in South Island (-2.7%). The seasonally adjusted SEI series in November 21 was 47% of the level recorded in November 26 for New Zealand as a whole, 44% for Auckland, 48% for Wellington, 45% for the rest of North Island, 62% for Canterbury, and 55% for other regions in South Island.

4 Figure 2. SEEK New Job Ads Index (January 22 = 1), seasonally adjusted Nov-6 Nov-7 Nov-8 Nov-9 Nov-1 The seasonally adjusted, SEEK New Job Ads series recorded a slight fall of.8% in November 21, following a (revised) strong increase of 5% last month. New job ads are 25.2% higher than those reported a year ago. The fall in new job ads was mainly associated with declines in Wellington (-3%), non-metropolitan North Island (-3.4%) and Canterbury (-2.4%), the latter comes after a strong rise of 11.6% in October. Auckland (.6%) and other regional South Island (6.3%) recorded increases to go against the national result. In comparison to November 26, the SEEK New Job Ads series is lower by 21% in New Zealand, 29.2% in Auckland, 26% in Wellington, and 1% in South Island Other. However, the series is higher by 16% in Canterbury and 8.2% in North Island Other. 1. Jobseeker Trends Top 5 most competitive occupations Top 5 occupations most in demand Industry Occupation Industry Occupation Call Centre & Customer Service Retail & Consumer Products Information & Communications Technology Administration & Office Support Customer Service Call Centre Retail Assistants Help Desk & IT Support Receptionists Government & Defence Healthcare & Medical Accounting Information & Communication Technology Government Management Business Services & Corporate Advisory Consultants Hospitality & Tourism Waiting Staff Engineering Civil/Structural Engineering If you are looking for a place in one of these categories it is vital that you get a competitive edge and present yourself in the best light - the competition is fierce. Hundreds of applicants are received for each position advertised, making these SEEK s Top 5 most competitive occupations. The special group! If you are seeking for a place in these categories and you have the relevant skills and experience, you are lucky and highly sought after. Be it due to increasing demand or a critical shortage of specialised skills, these positions are the hardest to fill.

5 Regional Data The following charts illustrate the SEEK Employment Index by City and Region classified on the basis of the location of the advertiser, not necessarily by the locality of the position. Figure 3. SEEK Employment Index (January 22 = 1), seasonally adjusted AUK WEL AUK N Z 2 WEL N Z Nov-6 Nov-7 Nov-8 Nov-9 Nov-1 Nov-6 Nov-7 Nov-8 Nov-9 Nov-1 NIO CAN NIO N Z 2 CAN N Z Nov-6 Nov-7 Nov-8 Nov-9 Nov-1 Nov-6 Nov-7 Nov-8 Nov-9 Nov-1 8 SIO SIO N Z Nov-6 Nov-7 Nov-8 Nov-9 Nov-1. SEE Note: AUK, WEL, NIO, CAN, SIO and NZ stand for Auckland, Wellington, North Island Other, Canterbury, South Island Other and New Zealand respectively. Since July 21, SEEK has redefined the South Island regions as Canterbury and South Island Other, previously composed of Christchurch and South Island Other.

6 K The SEEK The SEEK Employment Indicator Tables Table 1. SEEK Employment Index (SEI), Seasonally Adjusted (see Figure 1) Month EI Index Orig. EI Index SA Annual % Change Monthly % Change Nov % 3.2 % Dec % 2.3 % Jan % -3.3 % Feb % 7.7 % Mar % 1.4 % Apr % -1.1 % May % -2.8 % Jun % -1. % Jul %.1 % Aug %.9 % Sep % 1.8 % Oct % -5. % Nov %.4 % Dec % 3. % Jan % 7.6 % Feb % -5.8 % Mar % -6.7 % Apr %.6 % May % -4.2 % Jun % -2.6 % Jul % % Aug % -3.6 % Sep % -4.7 % Oct % -7.1 % Nov % -8.1 % Dec % -9.5 % Jan % % Feb % -1.2 % Mar % -7.3 % Apr % -6.3 % May % -6.2 % Jun % -3.1 % Jul % 7.5 % Aug % 1.4 % Sep % 1.2 % Oct % 1. % Nov % 2.6 % Dec % 1.1 % Jan % 11.2 % Feb % 2.6 % Mar % 1.8 % Apr % -1.5 % May % -1.6 % Jun % 1. % Jul % 5.8 % Aug %.1 % Sep % -4.5 % Oct % 5.3 % Nov %.5 % Note: Annual change is the percentage change from the same month in the previous year. Monthly change is the change from the previous month. Estimates are aggregates for New Zealand. Since July 21, SEEK has redefined the South Island regions as Canterbury and South Island Other. Previously, the South Island was composed of Christchurch and South Island Other.

7 Table 2. SEEK New Job Ads Index, Seasonally Adjusted (see Figure 2) Month Ads Index Orig. Ads Index SA Annual % Change Monthly % Change Nov % 4.4 % Dec %.7 % Jan %.1 % Feb % 8.1 % Mar % 4.3 % Apr % 2.7 % May % -.6 % Jun %. % Jul % -.3 % Aug % 5.1 % Sep % 1.1 % Oct % -.1 % Nov % 2.1 % Dec % -.1 % Jan % 2.3 % Feb %.3 % Mar % -1.9 % Apr %.5 % May % -2.3 % Jun % -2.6 % Jul % -1.1 % Aug % -3.9 % Sep % -3.8 % Oct % -1.9 % Nov % -6. % Dec % -5.1 % Jan % -9.6 % Feb % % Mar % -8.4 % Apr % -6.4 % May % 1.5 % Jun % -6.1 % Jul % -3. % Aug % 4.1 % Sep % 3.3 % Oct % 7.3 % Nov %.2 % Dec % 2.9 % Jan % 7.1 % Feb % 2.9 % Mar %.6 % Apr % 2.4 % May % -.3 % Jun % 1.9 % Jul % 6.1 % Aug % -2.2 % Sep % -2.3 % Oct % 5. % Nov % -.8 % Note: Annual change is the percentage change from the same month in the previous year. Monthly change is the change from the previous month. Estimates are aggregates for New Zealand. Since July 21, SEEK has redefined the South Island regions as Canterbury and South Island Other. Previously, the South Island was composed of Christchurch and South Island Other.

8 Table 3. SEEK New Jobs Ads Index by Region, Seasonally Adjusted Month AUK WEL NIO CAN SIO NZ Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Note: Annual change is the percentage change from the same month in the previous year. Monthly change is the change from the previous month. AUK, WEL, NIO, CAN, SIO and NZ stand for Auckland, Wellington, North Island Other, Canterbury, South Island Other and New Zealand respectively. Since July 21, SEEK has redefined the South Island regions as Canterbury and South Island Other. Previously, the South Island was composed of Christchurch and South Island Other. Also, the state and national series are seasonally adjusted separately and, as a result, there may be some discrepancy between the national and the average of the state series.

9 Table 4. SEEK EI, by City and Region (see City and Regions charts) Month AUK WEL NIO CAN SIO NZ Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Note: Annual change is the percentage change from the same month in the previous year. Monthly change is the change from the previous month. AUK, WEL, NIO, CAN, SIO and NZ stand for Auckland, Wellington, North Island Other, Canterbury, South Island Other and New Zealand respectively. Since July 21, SEEK has redefined the South Island regions as Canterbury and South Island Other. Previously, the South Island was composed of Christchurch and South Island Other. Also, the state and national series are seasonally adjusted separately and, as a result, there may be some discrepancy between the national and the average of the state series.

10 Technical notes on data series An explanation of the SEEK indicators are as follows: Advertiser an individual or organisation who has placed an advertisement on the SEEK website. SEEK charges advertisers to post an advertisement to the website. Application a response made to a job advertisement via the SEEK website through the Apply Now function, which sends responses directly to the advertiser. Duplicate Job Advertisement a job advertisement consisting of the same title and content as another advertisement posted to the SEEK website in the same month. This includes advertisements posted to different classifications (industry, occupation and location). Index a numerical scale used to compare variables with one another or with some reference number ( indexation point ). It illustrates relative changes in data over time. Industry defined as the SEEK industry classification in which the job advertisement was first placed, e.g. Accounting. SEEK industry classifications have been mapped to the ANZSIC industry codes. Job Advertisement a posting made to the SEEK website advertising a specific position of employment that is available to be filled. Jobseeker an individual who visits the SEEK website with the view to searching for a job opportunity. SEEK does not charge jobseekers to apply for jobs. Labour market demand a measure of the level and composition of employment that employers wish to engage at a given point in time; given current wage rates, output levels and other relevant factors. Labour market supply a measure of the number of people seeking new employment including those working or available for work. It reflects the availability and willingness of actual and potential employees to supply labour of a particular structure and composition, given wage rates and other working conditions. Linked-Out Job Advertisement a job advertisement that requires applications to be lodged via a third-party website. The SEEK database does not record application volumes for linked-out advertisements. Location defined as the SEEK location classification in which the job advertisement was first placed, e.g. Auckland. Locations are broken down into major cities and non-metropolitan regions. Since July 21, SEEK has redefined the South Island regions as Canterbury and South Island Other. Previously, the South Island was composed of Christchurch and South Island Other. Thus, prior to July 21 the Canterbury series are identical to those of Christchurch, as in past estimates. New Job Ads this is the number of new job ads posted on seek.co.nz in that month. The series is adjusted to ensure that multiple postings count as only one ad. Multiple postings occur when an ad is posted several times across several classifications or when a client cancels and re-posts the same ad within the same month. Occupation defined as the SEEK occupation classification in which the job advertisement was first placed, e.g. Payroll. There are over 3 SEEK occupational categories. Seasonal Adjustment Seasonal adjustment was carried out by the SEATS/TRAMO model developed by the Bank of Spain. The model employs signal extraction techniques to account for Easter, working day and holiday effects. Also, each month the above model is reestimated using the full data set available to that month. Thus, historical seasonally adjusted data may vary slightly from month to month, as revised seasonal factors are applied to the fixed original data. Note also that in order to account for regional diversity and to arrive at more robust adjustments for the national series, the regional and national series are adjusted separately and, thus, there may be some discrepancy between the national and the average of the regional series from time to time. SEEK Employment Index (SEI) this is the number of new job ads posted on SEEK per applications received. Here, the New Job series is net of Linked Out job advertisements: ads channelled outside the SEEK website and for which applications are lodged directly with a third party. New job ad series are for full-month while the application series is defined as the number of applications made on SEEK in the current month and 7 days into the next month for new jobs posted. Disclaimer This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any recipient for any purpose. Under no circumstances is this document to be used or considered to be an offer to sell, or to be soliciting an offer to buy. The information and any opinions contained in this document have been obtained from and are based upon, sources that are believed to be reliable. The views expressed in this document accurately reflect the authors personal views. The authors make no representation as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and/or opinions and neither the information nor the opinions should be relied upon as such. All opinions and estimates contained in this document reflect the authors judgments on the date of this document and may change without notice from time to time. The authors compensation, remuneration or any money paid to the authors for production of this document was in no way, and never will be directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations, views or opinions expressed about any matter contained in this document. The Centre for Strategic Economic Studies and Victoria University disclaim any responsibility, and shall not be liable for data provided by SEEK Limited and market analysis based on these data. SEEK Limited and its related bodies corporate, their respective directors, officers, and employees disclaim any responsibility, and shall not be liable, for any loss, damage, claim, liability, proceedings, cost or expense ( Liability ) arising directly or indirectly (and whether in tort (including negligence), contract, equity or otherwise) out of or in connection with the contents of and/or any omissions from the contents of this document and/or any communications in relation to them.

SEEK NZ Employment Indicators, May Commentary

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