Cardinal Bank & George Mason University

Transcription

1 Cardinal Bank & George Mason University 2th Annual Economic Conference Friday, January 13, 212 cra.gmu.edu

2 Cardinal Bank/George Mason University 2 th Annual Economic Conference Is This a Recovery or What? The Near-Term Outlook for the Washington Area Economy Stephen S. Fuller, Ph.D. Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional Analysis George Mason University January 13, 212

3 Recession Recovery Patterns of GDP Past Five Recessions in GDP % Change Q Q Q1 21-Q4 29-Q Quarters After Trough Sources: BEA, GMU Center for Regional Analysis,

4 % U.S. Gross Domestic Product Quarterly Change: Forecast > > > > > > Source: BEA, Global Insight

5 (1s) 4 Annual Change in Payroll Jobs US Month over the Year, Not Seasonally Adjusted 2 Dec = M Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

6 U.S. Job Change by Sector December 27 December 29 Ranked by Size in 21 State & Local Govt Educ & Health Svcs Prof. & Bus. Svcs Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Manufacturing Financial Construction Wlse Trade Other Services Transp. & Util. Federal Govt. Information -2,192-1,795-1,563-1,26 (s) Total - 8,363, Source: BLS March 21 Benchmark, (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

7 U.S. Job Change by Sector Dec 21 Dec 211 Ranked by Size in 21 State & Local Govt Educ & Health Svcs Prof. & Bus. Svcs Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Manufacturing Financial Construction Wlse Trade Other Services Transp. & Util. Federal Govt. Information -251 (s) Total = 1, Source: BLS March 21 Benchmark, (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

8 Initial Claims for Unemployment 4-Week Moving Average 382 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

9 U.S. Unemployment Rate % Dec = 8.5 GI FCST Source: BLS, Seasonally Adjusted

10 % Growth in Total Consumption Outlays Forecast > > > > > Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

11 U.S. Economic Performance % GDP Residential Fixed Non-Res: Structures State & Local Federal Bus. Inv. -3 Source: Global Insight

12 The Washington Metropolitan Area Economy

13 1,s 16 Annual Change in Jobs Washington Metro Area Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

14 (s) Largest Job Markets Job Change Nov 9 Nov 1 Washington + 49,2 Source: BLS March 21 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

15 (s) Largest Job Markets Job Change Nov 21 Nov 211 Washington + 8,8 Source: BLS March 211 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

16 Annual Job Change Washington MSA s Annual Data Annual Month over Year Oct Aug Jun Apr Feb Dec Oct Aug Jun Apr Feb Dec Oct Aug Jun Apr Feb Source: BLS March 211 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

17 Washington MSA, Job Change by Sector (s) Sector TOTAL Manufacturing Information Svcs Construction Other Services Financial Svcs State & Local Gov Retail Leisure & Hosp Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Gov Health & Educ Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis (November Data)

18 Annual Job Change District of Columbia s Annual Data Annual Month over Year Oct Aug Jun Apr Feb Dec Oct Aug Jun Apr Feb Dec Oct Aug Jun Apr Feb Source: BLS March 211 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

19 Annual Job Change Suburban Maryland s Annual Data Annual Month over Year Oct Aug Jun Apr Feb Dec Oct Aug Jun Apr Feb Dec Oct Aug Jun Apr Feb Source: BLS March 211 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

20 Annual Job Change Northern Virginia s Annual Data Annual Month over Year Oct Aug Jun Apr Feb Dec Oct Aug Jun Apr Feb Dec Oct Aug Jun Apr Feb Source: BLS March 211 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

21 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Nov 21 Nov 211 Northern Virginia (s) Total + 12, Source: BLS March 21 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

22 Unemployment Rate DC 8.2 U.S. 5.5 SMD 5.4 MSA NVA 2 Source: BLS, Not Seasonally Adjusted

23 The Economic Impact of Federal Spending on the Maryland-DC-Virginia Region

24 Federal Spending Trends in DC, Maryland and Virginia,2-21 (in billions of dollars) Area 2 21 %Change % Total ** United States $1,637.2 $3, District of Columbia Maryland Virginia Total Area $136. $ Source: Consolidated Federal Funds Report, 21 ** state population as a percent of US

25 Total Federal and DOD Spending in DC, Maryland and Virginia, 21 (in billions of dollars) Area Total $s DOD $s % Total % DOD United States $3,276.4 $ District of Columbia Maryland Virginia Total Area $294.3 $ Source: Consolidated Federal Funds Report, 21

26 The Commonwealth of Virginia Economy and Federal Spending (in billions of current year dollars) Characteristics 2 21 % Change Gross State Product $265.1 $ Total Federal Spending $62.7 $ Salaries and Wages $12.5 $ Procurement $21.3 $ Total DOD Outlays $24.5 $ Salaries and Wages $8.3 $ Procurement $13.5 $ Sources: Consolidated Federal Funds Reports, 2 and 21

27 $ Billions Federal Procurement Virginia, yr Rate of Growth = 1.7%/yr Source: Census: Consolidated Federal Funds Reports, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

28 $ Billions Federal Procurement Top 1 States VA CA TX MD DC PA FL MA NY GA Source: Census: Consolidated Federal Funds Reports, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

29 $ Billions 25 2 Federal Wages & Salaries Virginia, yr Rate of Growth = 5.4%/yr Source: Census: Consolidated Federal Funds Reports, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

30 $ Billions Federal Wages & Salaries Top 1 States TX CA DC VA GA NC MD NY FL WA Source: Census: Consolidated Federal Funds Reports, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

31 The Commonwealth of Virginia Federal Spending Comparative Metrics 2 21 % of US population % of total federal spending state ranking, total $s 2 2 per capita federal spending $8,859 $17,8 per capita DOD spending $3,476 $7,263 % of total DOD spending state ranking, DOD $s 2 1 Sources: Consolidated Federal Funds Reports, 2 and 21

32 The Importance of DOD Spending in the Commonwealth of Virginia, 28 (in billions of 28 $s) Source GSP* Personal Earnings Jobs Direct Payroll $22.4 $ ,941 Contracting $33.6 $ ,258 Construction $1.4 $1.1 25,786 Totals $57.4 $ ,985 % of State Revenues Expenditures Net Benefit Fiscal Impacts** $1, $ $1,96.4 *gross state product *in millions of dollars

33 The Changing Role of the Federal Government in the Washington Area

34 21 Structure of the Greater Washington Economy Non-Local Business 12. % Other Federal 1.7 % Local Serving Activities 34.8% Total Federal 39.8% Fed Wages & Salaries 1.% Procurement 19.1% Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis

35 FEDERAL SPENDING WASHINGTON MSA $ Billions TOTAL & PROCUREMENT Source: Census Consolidated Federal Funds Report

36 $ Billions Federal Procurement Washington Metro Area TOTAL = $862 Billion Source: Census Consolidated Federal Funds Report

37 s 4 35 Eisenhower Federal Employment Washington Metro Area Kennedy Johnson + 8 Nixon - Ford Carter Reagan Bush 1 Clinton Bush Obama Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

38 Federal Government Washington MSA s Annual Data Annual Month over Year Nov Sep Jul May Mar Jan Nov Sep Jul May Mar Jan Nov Sep Jul May Mar Jan Nov Sep Jul May Mar Jan Source: BLS March 21 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Tot Nov 21 = 378,

39 Growth Projections for Federal Spending and GRP: (in billions of 21 dollars, annual % change) Year Federal $s WMSA GRP 21 $169. $ % 2.6% % 2.7% 213.% 2.9% % 3.3% % 3.2% 215 $178.5 $491.2 Change 5.6% 15.6% Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis

40 215 Structure of the Greater Washington Economy Non-Local Business 14. % Other Federal 9.5 % Local Serving Activities 34.2% Total Federal 36.3% Fed Wages & Salaries 9.4 % Procurement 17.4% Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis

41 Near-Term Economic Outlook for the Washington Metropolitan Area

42 7 % 6 5 Economic Outlook (GRP) 215 Washington Area and Sub-state Portions (Annual % Change) NV 4 MSA 3 SM 2 DC Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis

43 Employment Change by Sub-state Region (s) D.C Sub. MD No. VA REGION Average Annual Change = 36, Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, based on 21 Benchmark data from BLS, Revised 1/9/212

44 % 8 GDP/GRP Washington 2 U.S Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

45 Cardinal Bank & George Mason University 2th Annual Economic Conference Friday, January 13, 212 cra.gmu.edu