Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Ireland. A Manpower Research Report

Transcription

1 Manpower Q3 27 Employment Outlook Survey Ireland A Manpower Research Report

2 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Ireland Contents Q3/7 Ireland Employment Outlook 1 Regional Comparisons Sector Comparisons Global Employment Outlook 8 International Comparisons EMEA International Comparisons Americas International Comparisons Asia Pacific About the Survey 15 About Manpower 16

3 Ireland Employment Outlook The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey for the third quarter of 27 was conducted by interviewing a representative sample of 639 employers in Ireland. All survey participants were asked, How do you anticipate total employment at your location to change in the three months to the end of September 27 as compared to the current quarter? Of the Irish employers interviewed, 15% said they expect to hire more people during the third quarter of 27. 4% expect to reduce their workforce, and 81% anticipate no change. For the third quarter of 27 the Net Employment Outlook is a respectable +11%, 7 percentage points weaker quarter-on-quarter. Year-on-year, hiring intentions are a notable 11 percentage points weaker. On a seasonally adjusted basis the Outlook stands at +8%, representing an 11 percentage point decrease quarter-over-quarter and a percentage decrease year-over-year. Throughout this report, we use the term Net Employment Outlook. This figure is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating total employment to increase, and subtracting from this, the percentage expecting to see a decrease in employment at their location in the next quarter. The result of this calculation is the. Increase Decrease No?Change Don t?know Net?Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted % % % % % % July-Sep Apr-June Jan-Mar Oct-Dec July-Sep

4 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Ireland Regional Comparisons For the eleventh consecutive quarter, positive hiring intentions are found in all five Irish regions. Employers in Dublin have the most optimistic expectations [+21%], with those in Connaught indicating more modest intentions [+4%]. Quarter-over-quarter reductions in Net Employment Outlook are observed in four regions, with one region [Dublin] reporting no change. Year-over-year comparisons reveal weaker Outlooks across all five regions. When adjustments are made for seasonal variation, employers in all five regions have positive Outlooks with those in Dublin being the most positive [+17%] and employers in Connaught being the least positive [+1%]. When quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year comparisons are made, employers in all five regions indicate weaker Outlooks. Connaught 1 4 Dublin Leinster 8 7 Munster 5 7 Ulster Connaught +4 (1)% Employers in the Connaught region are less optimistic about hiring intentions when compared to the second quarter of 27. The of +4% has declined by 6 percentage points quarter-overquarter and 11 percentage points year-over-year. When quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year comparisons are made, the Outlook is weaker by a moderate 5 percentage points and a considerable 14 percentage points, respectively. Dublin +21 (17)% Before seasonal adjustments are made, hiring intentions in Dublin reveal a solid of +21%. This represents no change in the Outlook quarter-over-quarter and a moderate weakening of 5 percentage points year-over-year. After adjustments are made for seasonal variation, the Outlook stands at a steady +17%. This represents a moderate decrease in Outlook of 6 percentage points both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year

5 Leinster +8 (7)% Hiring intentions in Leinster reveal a modest Outlook of +8% with quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year comparisons indicating a considerable weakening in the of 9 and percentage points, respectively. On a seasonally adjusted basis the Outlook is a conservative +7% - 17 percentage points weaker quarter-over-quarter and 8 percentage points weaker year-over-year. Munster +7 (5)% Employers in Munster report a considerably weaker Net Employment Outlook of +7% compared to the second quarter of 27. Hiring intentions are15 percentage points weaker quarter-over-quarter and 24 percentage points weaker year-over-year. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the Outlook is +5%, representing the second weakest Outlook across the five Irish regions. Both quarter-over-quarter and yearover-year Outlooks indicate considerably weaker hiring intentions by 18 percentage points Ulster +11 (7)% Employers in Ulster anticipate almost no change in hiring activity compared to the second quarter of 27 with the now at +11%. This represents a decrease of 1 percentage point quarterover-quarter and a decrease of 5 percentage points year-over-year. After seasonal variations are taken into account, the Outlook stands at a modest +7% - 2 percentage points weaker quarter-over-quarter and 5 percentage points weaker year-over-year

6 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Ireland Sector Comparisons Without seasonal adjustments, employers in all 11 industry sectors report positive hiring intentions for the third quarter of 27. Employers in the Transport, Storage & Communication industry sector are the most optimistic regarding hiring activity in the upcoming quarter [+27%]. The weakest hiring intentions are reported by employers in the Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Business Services industry sector where an Outlook of +2% is reported. Quarter-over-quarter improvements in Outlook are reported in four out of 11 industry sectors, weaker in six and one reporting no change. Stronger year-over-year Outlooks are reported in three industry sectors with six reporting weaker hiring intentions and two industry sectors reporting no change. When seasonal variations are removed from the data, positive Outlooks are reported in eight industry sectors, with the greatest optimism among employers in the Mining & Quarrying industry sector [+21%] and the least optimistic outlook among employers in the Community, Social & Personal industry sector [-5%]. The Mining & Quarrying and Pharmaceutical industry sectors are the only two industry sectors to report quarter-over-quarter improvements, whereas seven report weaker Outlooks. Two industry sectors report no change [Electricity, Gas & Water and Restaurant & Hotel industry sectors]. When a year-over-year comparison is made, three industry sectors anticipate an increase in hiring activity while eight report weaker hiring plans. Agriculture, etc Community Construction Electricity, etc Finance, etc Manufacturing Mining & Quarrying Pharmaceutical Restaurant & Hotels Transportation, etc Wholesale & Retail

7 Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing +11 (12)% The in the Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing industry sector remains steady at +11% following a 1 percentage point quarter-overquarter decrease in Outlook. When a year-over-year comparison is made, the Outlook remains unchanged. On a seasonally adjusted basis, employers in this industry sector report an Outlook of +12% following - 3 percentage points weaker quarter-over-quarter and 2 percentage points weaker year-over-year. Community, Social & Personal +6 (-5)% Employers in the Community, Social & Personal industry sector have positive hiring intentions for the third quarter of 27 with a modest Net Employment Outlook of +6%. This represents considerable decreases of 14 percentage points quarter-over-quarter and 13 percentage points year-over-year. When seasonal variations are removed from the data, the Outlook indicates mixed hiring intentions at -5% - the weakest Outlook of all the industry sectors in Ireland this quarter. Hiring intentions are 29 percentage points weaker quarter-over-quarter and 21 percentage points weaker year-over-year Construction + (7)% Hiring activity in the Construction sector is anticipated to remain relatively stable quarter-over-quarter with a 1 percentage point weaker than in the previous quarter. The Outlook now stands at a steady +%. However, this Outlook is percentage points weaker than in the same quarter of 26. On a seasonally adjusted basis the Outlook in this sector is +7%, which is 5 percentage points weaker quarter-over-quarter and 9 percentage points weaker year-over-year. Electricity, Gas & Water +15 (14)% Employers in the Electricity, Gas & Water industry sector anticipate a quarter-over-quarter reduction in hiring intentions with a of +15% [down 7 percentage points]. Year-over-year, this represents a decrease in Outlook of 17 percentage points. After seasonal adjustments are made, the Outlook stands at a respectable +14%. The Outlook is 16 percentage points weaker year-over-year, while the quarter-over-quarter Outlook remains unchanged

8 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Ireland Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Business Services +2 (-2)% Employers in the Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Business Services sector anticipate much weaker third quarter hiring intentions with the Net Employment Outlook now standing at a mild +2%. This Outlook reveals a considerable 23 percentage point decrease both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the Outlook stands at a weak -2%. The Outlook is weaker in both a quarterover-quarter and year-over-year comparison by 26 and 19 percentage points, respectively. Manufacturing +17 (11)% Based on the unadjusted data, hiring intentions among employers in the Manufacturing industry sector are 5 percentage points stronger than in the second quarter of 27 with the standing at +17%. However, employers in this industry sector anticipate moderately weaker hiring plans year-over-year. When the data is seasonally adjusted, the Net Employment Outlook stands at a hopeful +11% - just 1 percentage point weaker quarter-on-quarter and a 6 percentage points weaker year-on-year Mining & Quarrying +23 (21)% Employers in the Mining & Quarrying industry sector anticipate solid hiring intentions with a Net Employment Outlook of +23%. This follows a considerable increase of 9 percentage points quarter-over-quarter and 11 percentage points since the corresponding quarter of 26. After seasonal adjustments are applied, the Outlook stands at a solid +21%. This forecast is considerably stronger on both a quarter-over-quarter and year-overyear basis [up 18 and 9 percentage points, respectively]. Pharmaceutical +21 (17)% Pharmaceutical industry sector employers anticipate considerably stronger quarter-on-quarter hiring activity [14 percentage points] with the Net Employment Outlook at a healthy +21%. The Outlook is also 2 percentage points stronger year-on-year. On a seasonally adjusted basis the Outlook is +17% - 5 percentage points stronger quarter-on-quarter, and 1 percentage point stronger year-on-year

9 Restaurants & Hotels +26 (12)% Employers in the Restaurants & Hotels industry sector report healthy hiring activity for the upcoming quarter with a of +26%. Comparison with the previous quarter shows no change while the Outlook is 3 percentage points stronger year-on-year. After allowing for seasonal variation in the data, the Outlook stands at a steady +12% revealing no variation quarter-on-quarter but 5 percentage points stronger year-on-year. Transport, Storage & Communication +27 (12)% Employers in the Transport, Storage & Communication industry sector anticipate an improvement in hiring activity following an increase in Net Employment Outlook of 11percentage points quarter-over-quarter. The Outlook now stands at a strong +27%. However, this represents no change when a year-over-year comparison is made. On a seasonally adjusted basis the Outlook now stands at +12%. Hiring intentions are 9 percentage points weaker than the second quarter of 27 and a slight 2 percentage points weaker than the corresponding quarter of Wholesale & Retail Trade +4 ()% Hiring activity in the Wholesale & Retail Trade industry sector is expected to be considerably weaker in the third quarter of 27 when quarter-on-quarter and yearon-year comparisons are made. The Net Employment Outlook stands at a cautiously optimistic +4%, indicating hiring intentions 13 percentage points weaker than the previous quarter and 21 percentage points weaker than the corresponding quarter of 26. On a seasonally adjusted basis the Outlook stands at an uncertain % - 26 percentage points and 19 percentage points weaker on a quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year basis respectively

10 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Ireland Global Employment Outlook Nearly 52, employers have been interviewed across 27 countries and territories to measure anticipated employment trends* between July and September 27. Positive third-quarter hiring is expected in all 27 countries and territories surveyed with employers in Germany and Norway reporting their most optimistic hiring plans since the survey began in these countries. * Comments in this section are based on seasonally adjusted data where available. Employers in 15 countries and territories are reporting weaker hiring plans compared to the second quarter, while those in 14 are reporting stronger hiring expectations compared to this time last year. Thirdquarter U.S. job prospects are expected to remain stable, but are softer when compared to Quarter 3, 26. Meanwhile, the Asia Pacific labour market is expected to cool from three months ago. A notable exception is India, where employer demand has bounced back after a dip reported in Quarter 2. The strongest third-quarter hiring prospects reported globally were in Singapore, Peru, India, Argentina, New Zealand, Australia, Norway, Costa Rica, Japan and Hong Kong. Conversely, employers in Italy, Belgium and France reported the weakest job prospects. Regionally, employers in the Americas continue to report positive s, with those in Peru reporting the strongest hiring plans. Hiring expectations in Asia Pacific remain healthy, as employers in Singapore again report the most optimistic Outlook in the region. In the Europe, Middle East & Africa (EMEA) region, all 13 countries surveyed report positive hiring activity for Quarter Hiring intentions in Germany remain strong, continuing the upward trend first reported in the fourth quarter of 26. 8

11 Survey Respondents by Region Research for the third quarter 27 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey involved surveying nearly 52, human resources directors and senior hiring managers from public and private organisations worldwide. 44% of respondents came from six countries in the Americas; 23% from eight countries and territories across Asia Pacific; and 33% from 13 countries in EMEA. 9

12 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Ireland International Comparisons EMEA Nearly 12, interviews have been conducted with employers across 13 EMEA countries to measure anticipated hiring activity for Quarter 3, 27. Employers across the region continue to report varying degrees of positive hiring activity. Job prospects in the region are strongest in Norway, South Africa, the UK, Germany, Sweden and Switzerland, with employers in Germany and Norway reporting the most optimistic Outlooks since the survey Austria began in these countries. Italian employers reported the weakest but still positive hiring expectations in the region. With the exception of the weaker Outlook in Ireland and stronger employer hiring plans in Norway, hiring should remain relatively steady from Quarter 2 across Europe. Employers in Ireland expect to slow hiring considerably from both three months ago and Quarter On a year-over-year basis, employers in eight European countries anticipate increasing the pace of hiring. Belgium France Germany Ireland Italy

13 Netherlands Norway South Africa Spain Sweden Switzerland UK 11

14 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Ireland International Comparisons Americas Nearly 23, interviews have been conducted across Argentina, Canada, Costa Rica, Mexico, Peru and the United States to measure employment prospects for Quarter 3, 27. The data indicates that job prospects in the U.S., Canada and Mexico should hold steady in the next three months as these three labour markets appear to be moving in unison. Slightly weaker hiring activity is expected in Argentina Argentina and Mexico compared to Quarter Compared to Quarter 3 26, Outlooks are relatively stable in Canada and Mexico; slightly weaker in Costa Rica and the U.S.; but notably improved in Peru. Employers in Peru and Argentina are the most optimistic about adding to their workforces in the quarter ahead. The Outlook for Mexico remains one of the most optimistic since the survey was established in the country. Canada Costa Rica Mexico Peru USA 12

15 International Comparisons Asia Pacific Over 17, interviews have been conducted across the Asia Pacific region to measure anticipated hiring activity between July and September of 27. Quarter Compared to one year ago, employers in Australia, China, New Zealand and Singapore are reporting improved hiring plans. The strongest Outlooks are reported in Singapore, India, New Zealand and Australia, while employers in Taiwan expect to offer the fewest employment opportunities. s for the eight countries and territories surveyed across the Asia Pacific region are positive. However, with the exception of India, Outlooks for seven of the eight are weaker when compared to Australia China Hong Kong India 13

16 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Ireland Japan New Zealand Singapore Taiwan 14

17 About the Survey The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted quarterly to measure employers intentions to increase or decrease the number of employees in their workforce during the next quarter. The survey has been running for more than 4 years and is one of the most trusted surveys of employment activity in the world. Various factors underpin the success of the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey: Unique: It is unparalleled in its size, scope, longevity and area of focus. Projective: The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is the most extensive, forward-looking employment survey in the world, asking employers to forecast employment over the next quarter. In contrast, other surveys and studies focus on retrospective data to report on what occurred in the past. Focused: For more than four decades, the survey has derived all of its information from a single question. Independent: The survey is conducted with a representative sample of employers from throughout the countries in which it is conducted. The survey participants are not derived from Manpower s customer base. Robust: The survey is based on interviews with nearly 52, public and private employers across 27 countries and territories to measure anticipated employment trends each quarter. This sample allows for analysis to be performed across specific sectors and regions to provide more detailed information. Survey Question All employers participating in the survey worldwide are asked the same question, How do you anticipate total employment at your location to change in the three months to the end of September 27 as compared to the current quarter? Throughout this report, we use the term Net Employment Outlook. This figure is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating an increase in hiring activity and subtracting from this the percentage of employers that expect to see a decrease in employment at their location in the next quarter. The result of this calculation is the Net Employment Outlook. Seasonal Adjustment Seasonal adjustments have been applied to the data for Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom and the United States to provide additional insight into the survey data. These adjustments make it possible to review the data without the employment fluctuations that normally occur at the same time each year, thus providing a clearer picture of the data over time. Manpower intends to add seasonal adjustments to the data for other countries in the future, as more historical data is compiled. Methodology The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted using a validated methodology, in accordance with the highest standards in market research. The research team for the 27 countries and territories where the survey is currently conducted includes Manpower s Market Intelligence team; the Organisation Research and Analysis Division of Right Management Consultants - an independent operating division of Manpower Inc.; NOP World, Grupo IDM and DATUM Research and SEL Consultores. The survey has been structured to be representative of each national economy. The margin of error for all national, regional and global data is not greater than +/- 4.3%. In Ireland, the national survey is conducted by external surveyors and includes 665 employers. With this number of interviews, the margin of error for the Ireland survey is +/- 3.9%. 15

18 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Ireland History of the Survey st generation of the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey launched in the United States and Canada Manpower s UK operation launches the equivalent of the United States survey, naming the report the Quarterly Survey of Employment Prospects. The survey adopts the same forward looking research format as the United States survey and is the first of its kind in Europe nd generation of Manpower s Employment Outlook Survey launched in the United States and Canada. Research methodology is updated to evolve with advancements in the field of market research. 22 Manpower UK s Quarterly Survey of Employment Prospects is updated to adopt an enhanced research methodology. Manpower s operations in Mexico and Ireland launch the survey in their respective countries. 23 3rd generation of the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is launched, expanding the program to a total 18 countries worldwide: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom and United States. 24 Manpower operations in New Zealand launch the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey. 25 Manpower operations in China, India, Switzerland, and Taiwan launch the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey. 26 Manpower operations in Costa Rica and Peru joined the survey program. Surveys in Australia, Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, Singapore, Spain and Sweden add seasonally adjusted data in the third quarter. Manpower operations in South Africa launch the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey. 27 Manpower operations in Argentina join the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey. The survey in New Zealand adds seasonally adjusted data in the first quarter. About Manpower Inc. Manpower Inc. (NYSE: MAN) is a world leader in the employment services industry; creating and delivering services that enable its clients to win in the changing world of work. The $18 billion company offers employers a range of services for the entire employment and business cycle including permanent, temporary and contract recruitment; employee assessment and selection; training; outplacement; outsourcing and consulting. Manpower s worldwide network of 4,4 offices in 73 countries and territories enables the company to meet the needs of its 4, clients per year, including small and medium size enterprises in all industry sectors, as well as the world s largest multinational corporations. The focus of Manpower s work is on raising productivity through improved quality, efficiency and cost-reduction across their total workforce, enabling clients to concentrate on their core business activities. Manpower Inc. operates under five brands: Manpower, Manpower Professional, Elan, Jefferson Wells and Right Management. More information on Manpower Inc. is available at About Manpower Ireland Manpower is Ireland s leading provider of workforce management solutions specialising in permanent and temporary recruitment, HR services, managed services, outsourcing and HR consultancy. Manpower Ireland s network of offices allows the company to meet the needs of local and national customers. This includes numerous small and medium sized enterprises, as well as larger organisations. The focus of Manpower s work is on raising productivity through improved quality, efficiency and cost-reduction, enabling customers to concentrate on their core business. Manpower has a highly skilled workforce of over 2, temporary employees who stay loyal to the company (and its customers) thanks to best-in-class employment benefits. These include a contract of employment and a free e-learning tool offering staff over 1, courses in a diverse range of subjects, keeping Manpower s workforce up to date with today s ever-changing working environment. 16

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