Labour Market Trends. Jobs Online. Trends in New Zealand Job AdverƟsements. April 2018

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Clarence Dean
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1 Labour Market Trends Jobs Online Trends in New Zealand Job AdverƟsements April 2018

2 Ministry of Business, InnovaƟon and Employment (MBIE) Hīkina Whakatutuki LiŌing to make successful MBIE develops and delivers policy, services, advice and regulaɵon to support economic growth and the prosperity and well-being of New Zealanders. MBIE combines the former Ministries of Economic Development, Science + InnovaƟon, and the Departments of Labour and Building and Housing. More informaɵon InformaƟon, examples and answers to your quesɵons about the topics covered here can be found on our website or by calling us free on Disclaimer This document is a guide only. It should not be used as a subsɵtute for legislaɵon or legal advice. The Ministry of Business, InnovaƟon and Employment is not responsible for the results of any acɵons taken on the basis of informaɵon in this document, or for any errors or omissions April 2018 Crown copyright 2018 The material contained in this report is subject to Crown copyright protecɵon unless otherwise indicated. The Crown copyright protected material may be reproduced free of charge in any format or media without requiring specific permission. This is subject to the material being reproduced accurately and not being used in a derogatory manner or in a misleading context. Where the material is being published or issued to others, the source and copyright status should be acknowledged. The permission to reproduce Crown copyright protected material does not extend to any material in this report that is idenɵfied as being the copyright of a third party. AuthorizaƟon to reproduce such material should be obtained from the copyright holders.

3 IntroducƟon OVERVIEW OF KEY TRENDS Online adverɵsements grew 3.4 per cent in the March 2018 quarter. This is the strongest quarterly growth since the December 2016 quarter. The strongest percentage growth in online adverɵsing over the quarter came from the services industry, parɵcularly hospitality and tourism, IT and health. However, the volume of adverɵsing from the construcɵon and sales and retail industries meant those two industries showed the strongest total growth. AdverƟsing for labourers rose most strongly over the quarter; along with machinery drivers and operators, this occupaɵon has been the main driver of job opening growth in the past year. Over both the quarter and the year, growth was driven by unskilled and highly-skilled openings. Semi-skilled occupaɵons showed weakest growth, consistent with the longterm soōening in demand for these workers. Auckland s size means it is the main driver of quarterly growth, although Waikato and Otago/Southland have also made significant contribuɵons. Over the year, the main drivers of growth lay outside the main centres: Waikato, Otago/Southland and Bay of Plenty accounted for half of annual adverɵsing growth, with Auckland s growth being very low by contrast. Purpose of Jobs Online Jobs Online measures changes in online job adverɵsements from four internet job boards: SEEK, Trade Me Jobs, the EducaƟon GazeƩe and Kiwi Health Jobs. Job adverɵsements are a proxy for job vacancies, a key indicator of labour demand and economic change. The relaɵonship between job adverɵsements and labour demand is complex, parɵcularly when disaggregated at an industry, occupaɵon and regional level. For example, an increase in job adverɵsements by a parɵcular industry may indicate the industry is expanding, and looking for new workers; or the industry has a high rate of churn (workers are moving between businesses, but overall employment is not necessarily increasing). Likewise, declining job adverɵsing can signal reduced headcount in an industry, or that the industry is using alternaɵves to adverɵsing in their hiring process (such as word-of-mouth or social networks). With these caveats in mind, data from Jobs Online tracks well with other labour market indicators, such as the unemployment rate.

4 Overall Job AdverƟsements Job adverɵsements point to an upwards trend in job openings Online job adverɵsements increased by 3.4 per cent in the March 2018 quarter. This is up from the 2.5 per cent growth recorded in the December 2017, and well above the 0.4 and 0.9 per cent increases in the June and September quarters. Overall, job adverɵsements rose by 7.3 per cent in the year to March. The up-ɵck in the last two quarters is contrary to the general trend of soōening growth through 2017, and it remains to be seen if this represents a turn-around. Recent indicators of business confidence give weight to a pessimisɵc outlook: NZIER s Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion, for example, shows only a net 6 per cent of businesses intend to increase headcount over the next quarter, a fall from previous quarters. 1 Figure 1: All Vacancies Index 1 New Zealand InsƟtute of Economic Research, Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion: March quarter 2018 MINISTRY OF BUSINESS, INNOVATION & EMPLOYMENT 2 Jobs Online: March 2018

5 Figure 2: Annual change in All Vacancies Index Annual Percentage Change (%) MINISTRY OF BUSINESS, INNOVATION & EMPLOYMENT 3 Jobs Online: March 2018

Job AdverƟsements by Industry Quarterly growth led by services industries At an industry level, percentage growth over the March quarter has been led by services industries, specifically hospitality

6 Job AdverƟsements by Industry Quarterly growth led by services industries At an industry level, percentage growth over the March quarter has been led by services industries, specifically hospitality and tourism, IT and healthcare and medical services. This marks a shiō from early-2017, when growth was led by manufacturing and transport and the primary industries. The main drivers of overall adverɵsing growth in the quarter were construcɵon and sales and retail, due to the larger volume of vacancies from those industries. The volume of adverɵsing for construcɵon and manufacturing and transport jobs meant these were the main drivers of annual growth. Figure 3: Quarterly and annual changes in online job adverɵsements by industry MINISTRY OF BUSINESS, INNOVATION & EMPLOYMENT 4 Jobs Online: March 2018

7 Figure 4: Indices by industry MINISTRY OF BUSINESS, INNOVATION & EMPLOYMENT 5 Jobs Online: March 2018

8 Job AdverƟsements by OccupaƟon Demand for labourers increasing In percentage terms, openings for labourers led growth over the quarter and the year. Around one-third of the annual growth in openings was from labourers, with labourers and machinery drivers and operators combined made up half of annual adverɵsing growth. The weakest percentage growth was for clerical and administraɵve jobs, which, combined with the low volume of adverɵsing for this occupaɵon, was also the least-significant driver of growth. Wellington was an outlier among New Zealand regions, with around three-quarters of annual adverɵsing growth for professional or managerial jobs. Elsewhere, growth tends to be driven by openings for labourers and machinery drivers and operators in that order. In Auckland, the main annual occupaɵonal drivers of growth have been those two occupaɵons; offseƫng an annual fall in openings for professionals and clerical and administraɵve workers. Figure 5: Quarterly and annual changes in online job adverɵsements by occupaɵon MINISTRY OF BUSINESS, INNOVATION & EMPLOYMENT 6 Jobs Online: March 2018

9 Figure 6: Indices by occupaɵon Unskilled and high-skilled jobs lead growth Quarterly growth has been led by unskilled jobs, with solid percentage growth also being recorded for high-skilled jobs. Weakest growth was for semi-skilled jobs, reflecɵng a longer-term slow-down. While percentage growth was high for unskilled jobs, the volume of these jobs is small: possibly an indicaɵon that these jobs are adverɵsed through more informal processes than online adverɵsing. As such, their contribuɵon to overall growth was relaɵvely low. High-skilled occupaɵons accounted for the largest volume of job adverɵsements, and as such over half of both annual and quarterly growth was driven by this occupaɵon group. MINISTRY OF BUSINESS, INNOVATION & EMPLOYMENT 7 Jobs Online: March 2018

10 Figure 7: Quarterly and annual changes in online job adverɵsements by skill level Figure 8: Indices by skill levels MINISTRY OF BUSINESS, INNOVATION & EMPLOYMENT 8 Jobs Online: March 2018

Job AdverƟsements by Region Provincial New Zealand leads growth in job adverɵsing Growth in job adverɵsements was strongest outside the main centres in the March quarter.

11 Job AdverƟsements by Region Provincial New Zealand leads growth in job adverɵsing Growth in job adverɵsements was strongest outside the main centres in the March quarter. Highest percentage growth was recorded in Manawatu-Whanganui, Otago/Southland, Waikato and Bay of Plenty; while the lowest growth was in Wellington, Canterbury and Auckland. However, given Auckland s size, it was the main driver of overall growth in March, followed by Waikato and Otago/Southland. The very low growth recorded by Auckland over the year changes that picture. Waikato, Otago/Southland and Bay of Plenty accounted for half of the overall growth in the year to March; while the main centres of Auckland, Canterbury and Wellington accounted for around 20 per cent of this increase. Figure 9: Quarterly and annual changes in online job adverɵsements by region MINISTRY OF BUSINESS, INNOVATION & EMPLOYMENT 9 Jobs Online: March 2018

12 Figure 10: Indices by region NORTHLAND Northland job adverɵsements grew by 3.0 per cent over the quarter, and 16.9 per cent over the year: growth has been soōening over the past year, but remains elevated. The main driver of quarterly growth was the health sector, and hospitality and tourism. Annual growth was driven by construcɵon. At an occupaɵonal level, technicians and trades workers were the largest driver of annual growth, followed by professionals and labourers. AUCKLAND Auckland job adverɵsements grew by 1.8 per cent over the quarter, and 0.1 per cent over the year: around the slowest growth rate for this region since our series begins in At a quarterly level, about half the growth has been from sales and retail openings, with IT and business services also making solid contribuɵons to growth. Sales and retail job openings are down since March 2017: this is the main cause of Auckland s weak annual growth, along with falls for construcɵon and educaɵon openings. A strong rise in manufacturing and transport openings was the main reason Auckland didn t show a decline in job adverɵsing over the year. WAIKATO Waikato job adverɵsements grew by 5.6 per cent over the quarter, largely driven by increased openings for construcɵon and transport jobs. Manufacturing and transport, healthcare and educaɵon also pushed up quarterly growth. Job adverɵsements in the region are up 18.1 per cent over the year, with a similar set of drivers (construcɵon, manufacturing and transport and healthcare). At an occupaɵonal level, managers, labourers and machinery operators and drivers MINISTRY OF BUSINESS, INNOVATION & EMPLOYMENT 10 Jobs Online: March 2018

13 drove growth. Job opening growth in Waikato have stabilised following the rapid increase experienced in BAY OF PLENTY Bay of Plenty job adverɵsements rose 4.7 per cent in the quarter, and 20 per cent over the year, bouncing back from slowing growth in ConstrucƟon was the main driver of quarterly growth, followed by manufacturing and transport and business services. Along with healthcare, these are the same drivers of annual growth in the region. At an occupaɵonal level, the main drivers of growth were professionals, machinery operators and drivers and managers. GISBORNE/HAWKE S BAY Job adverɵsement growth in Gisborne/Hawke s Bay is around the naɵonal average, with increases of 3.5 per cent over the quarter, and 7.4 per cent over the year. ConstrucƟon and manufacturing and transport and health all drove quarterly growth in roughly equal measure; while at an annual level the bulk of growth has been in manufacturing and transport. MANAWATU-WHANGANUI/TARANAKI Manawatu-Whanganui/Taranaki had the largest percentage increase in job adverɵsing over the March quarter: up 6.0 per cent. The main driver of this growth was construcɵon, with health and manufacturing and transport making smaller contribuɵons. The same drivers were responsible for annual growth. WELLINGTON Wellington had the weakest quarterly percentage growth of any region, up 0.6 per cent. Over the year, job adverɵsements rose by 6.3 per cent, a fairly low rate of growth that has been stable in recent years. Hospitality and tourism was the strongest driver of quarterly growth. NELSON/TASMAN/MARLBOROUGH/WEST COAST The upper South Island has seen strong job adverɵsing growth in recent years, although that appears to be soōening. At 21.4 per cent, annual percentage growth was sɵll the second-highest in the country, driven by construcɵon. ConstrucƟon was also the main driver of quarterly growth of 3.5 per cent. CANTERBURY Due to the earthquake rebuild, construcɵon adverɵsements peaked in late-2014 and have been declining ever since. The 4.7 per cent rise in adverɵsements over the past year has been strongly driven by growth in manufacturing and transport, along with broad-based growth in business MINISTRY OF BUSINESS, INNOVATION & EMPLOYMENT 11 Jobs Online: March 2018

14 services, the primary sector, and hospitality and tourism. The 0.9 per cent quarterly growth was driven by health and business services growth while being offset by falling construcɵon adverɵsing. OTAGO/SOUTHLAND Job adverɵsements in Otago/Southland rose by 5.6 per cent over the quarter, and 22.9 per cent over the year: the strongest annual growth of any region. Growth in Otago/Southland s job adverɵsing has been elevated and stable for the past year. The main drivers of annual growth in the region have been construcɵon and manufacturing and transport, with growth in hospitality and tourism, business services and health making smaller contribuɵons. ConstrucƟon and health were the main quarterly drivers. MINISTRY OF BUSINESS, INNOVATION & EMPLOYMENT 12 Jobs Online: March 2018

Labour Market Trends. Jobs Online. Trends in New Zealand Job Adver sements. July 2018

Labour Market Trends. Jobs Online. Trends in New Zealand Job Adver sements. July 2018 Labour Market Trends Jobs Online Trends in New Zealand Job Adver sements July 2018 Ministry of Business, Innova on and Employment (MBIE) Hīkina Whakatutuki Li ing to make successful MBIE develops and delivers