Q Manpower. Employment Outlook Survey New Zealand. A Manpower Research Report

Transcription

1 Manpower Q4 6 Employment Outlook Survey New Zealand A Manpower Research Report

2 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey New Zealand Contents Q4/6 New Zealand Employment Outlook 1 Regional Comparisons Sector Comparisons Global Employment Outlook 6 International Comparisons Asia Pacific International Comparisons Americas International Comparisons EMEA About the Survey 13 About Manpower 14

3 New Zealand Employment Outlook The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey for the October December quarter of 6 was conducted by interviewing a representative sample of 852 employers in New Zealand. All survey participants were asked, How do you anticipate total employment at your location to change in the three months to the end of December 6 as compared to the current quarter? Of the employers interviewed in New Zealand, 31% said they expect to hire more people during the fourth quarter of 6. Only 5% anticipated that their workforce would decline, and 63% expected no change. Employers in New Zealand anticipate a seven percentage point increase in the quarterover-quarter bringing the to a solid +26%. This also represents a four percentage point rise in Outlook year-over-year. Throughout this report, we use the term Net Employment Outlook. This figure is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating total employment to increase, and subtracting from this, the percentage expecting to see a decrease in employment at their location in the next quarter. The result of this calculation is the. Increase Decrease No Change Don t Know % % % % % Oct-Dec July-Sep Apr-June Jan-Mar Oct-Dec

4 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey New Zealand Regional Comparisons Employers in all three regions anticipate an increase in hiring activity since last quarter. The most optimistic Outlook is reported by Wellington (+29). However, Wellington is also the only region reporting a year-overyear decrease. Auckland is the region with the weakest at +22%. Auckland Christchurch Wellington Auckland +22% Employers in Auckland anticipate a slight increase in hiring activity since the last quarter by one percentage point. Year-over-year a slight increase of three percentage points brings the current Outlook to an active +22%. Christchurch +27% Considerable increases in hiring activity are shown in the Christchurch region with a quarter-over-quarter increase of percentage points and a nine percentage point increase since the same quarter in Wellington +29% For the fourth quarter of 6 employers in Wellington anticipate an increase in hiring activity. Despite a three percentage point year-over-year decrease, a solid Net Employment Outlook of +29% is reported. Quarter-overquarter hiring activity is anticipated to increase by percentage points

5 Sector Comparisons Since the establishment of the survey, all industry sectors have reported a positive and the same optimistic forecast is reported for the fourth quarter of 6, despite some decreases both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year. Most optimistic are employers in the Services sector, anticipating a prosperous hiring activity of +36%. Employers in both the Public Administration & Education sector and Transportation & Utilities sector anticipate the least optimistic Outlook of +13%. Although, the remains positive among employers in all seven industry sectors, quarterover-quarter and year-over-year decreases are revealed in four out of the seven industry sectors. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate Manufacturing Mining & Construction Public Admin/Education Services Transportation & Utilities Wholesale & Retail Trade Finance, Insurance & Real Estate +17% Despite considerable quarter-over-quarter and yearover-year decreases in hiring intention ( and nine percentage points respectively) among employers in the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector, results show a steady of +17%. Manufacturing +32% The among employers in the Manufacturing sector reveals the greatest quarter-overquarter and year-over-year increase (21 and 22 percentage points respectively) in hiring intentions of any industry sector for the fourth quarter of 6. The now stands at a bright +32%, the strongest Outlook in this industry sector since the fourth quarter of

6 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey New Zealand Mining & Construction +21% Employers in the Mining & Construction sector report an upbeat at +21%. However, this reveals a decrease in hiring activity since last quarter of five percentage points. This figure is also eight percentage points below the Net Employment Outlook for the corresponding quarter of 5. Public Administration & Education +13% Employers in the Public Administration & Education sector anticipate the largest quarter-over-quarter decline in hiring activity of any industry sector this forthcoming quarter. A considerable quarter-over-quarter decrease of 15 percentage points leaves the Outlook at a still respectable +13%. A considerable year-over-year decline of 12 percentage points is also revealed Services +36% For the third quarter in succession, employers in the Services sector report the most optimistic Net Employment Outlook of any industry sector in New Zealand. The now stands at a brisk +36% for the upcoming quarter of 6. Moderate to considerable increases are reported quarter-over-quarter (six percentage points) and year-over-year (13 percentage points). Transportation & Utilities +13% The among employers in the Transportation & Utilities sector is less optimistic for the upcoming quarter at +13% following a considerable percentage point quarter-over-quarter decline in Outlook. A considerable change is also revealed yearover-year with the anticipated hiring activity decreasing by 13 percentage points

7 Wholesale & Retail Trade +% Hiring intentions of employers in the Wholesale Trade & Retail Trade sector has increased and is now at a healthy +%. Anticipated Outlook has increased considerably since previous quarter by nine percentage points. Since the fourth quarter of 5 anticipated hiring activity has slightly increased by two percentage points

8 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey New Zealand Global Employment Outlook Over 49, employers have been interviewed across 26 countries and territories to measure anticipated employment trends* between October and December 6. Employers in all of the 26 countries and territories Manpower surveyed expect to add to their workforces in Quarter 4 6, with those in 18 of the countries and territories reporting stronger hiring expectations compared to last year at this time. Hiring activity is also expected to improve in 15 countries and territories compared to three months ago. The strongest activity is anticipated in Peru, India, Hong Kong, Singapore, Australia, New Zealand and South Africa, while the weakest hiring activity is forecast in France, Italy, the Netherlands and Spain. Notably, employers in Costa Rica, Peru, Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, Austria, Germany and Italy are reporting their most optimistic Net Employment Outlooks since the survey began in these countries and territories. On a regional basis, employers in the Americas continue to report strong, stable s. Employers in Asia Pacific are among the most positive globally, and data shows most intend to increase headcounts compared to the third quarter and Quarter 4 5. In the Europe, Middle East & Africa (EMEA) region, employers in all 13 countries surveyed are reporting positive hiring activity for the quarter ahead, with those in Germany and Italy indicating notably improved job prospects. Employers in South Africa were surveyed for the first time, reporting the strongest fourth-quarter hiring expectations in the region. * Comments in this section are based on seasonally adjusted data where available. Americas Canada Quarter 4 5 % 16 () 1 Quarter 3 6 % 29 (19) 1 19 (19) 1 Quarter 4 6 Peru United States 21 (21) 1 25 (21) 1 () 1-5 (-1) 1-1 (-1) 1 % 18 (21) 1 () 1 Qtr on Qtr Change Q3 6 to Q4 6 Costa Rica Mexico 19 (18) 1-11 (2) 1 1 (1) 1 Yr on Yr Change Q4 5 to Q4 6 2 (1) 1 1 (2) 1 Asia Pacific Australia China Hong Kong India Japan New Zealand Singapore Taiwan Quarter 4 5 % 18 (19) (14) 1 14 () (15) 1 16 Quarter 3 6 % 15 (15) (27) (24) (11) 1 23 Quarter 4 6 % 27 (29) (31) (24) (31) 1 14 Qtr on Qtr Change Q3 6 to Q (14) (4) () () 1-9 Yr on Yr Change Q4 5 to Q4 6 9 () (17) (4) (16) 1-2 6

9 EMEA* Austria Belgium France Germany Ireland Italy Netherlands Norway South Africa 26 Spain (12) 1 16 (12) 1 4 (6) 1-12 (-6) 1-6 (-6) 1 Sweden Switzerland UK Quarter 4 5 % () 1 8 (8) 1 5 (3) 1-2 (-2) 1 14 (15) 1-1 (1) 1 5 (3) 1 12 (14) 1 3 (6) (6) 1 Quarter 3 6 % 14 (12) 1 13 (12) 1 4 (4) 1 1 (-2) 1 22 (19) 1 2 () 1 4 (2) 1 16 (14) 1 11 (7) (12) 1 Quarter 4 6 % 11 (13) 1 9 (9) 1 4 (2) 1 5 (8) 1 15 (16) 1 2 (5) 1 9 (6) 1 12 (14) 1 7 (11) (9) 1 *EMEA Europe, Middle East and Africa. 1. Number in parentheses is the when adjusted to remove seasonal variations. Qtr on Qtr Change Q3 6 to Q4 6-3 (1) 1-4 (-3) 1 (-2) 1 4 () 1-7 (-3) 1 (5) 1 5 (4) 1-4 () 1-4 (4) (-3) 1 Yr on Yr Change Q4 5 to Q (13) 1 1 (1) 1-1 (-1) 1 7 () 1 1 (1) 1 3 (4) 1 4 (3) 1 () 1 4 (5) (3) 1 Survey Respondents by Region Americas 44% Asia Pacific 31% Research for the fourth quarter 6 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey involved surveying over 49, human resources directors and senior hiring managers from public and private organisations worldwide. 44% of respondents came from five countries in the Americas; 31% from eight countries and territories across Asia Pacific, and 25% from 13 countries in EMEA. EMEA 25% 7

10 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey New Zealand International Comparisons Asia Pacific Over 15, interviews have been conducted across the Asia Pacific region to measure anticipated hiring activity between October and December 6. Employers in the Asia Pacific region remain positive about adding employees across all countries and territories surveyed, with those in India, Singapore and Hong Kong anticipating the most robust fourth-quarter hiring activity. Compared to this time last year, Net Employment Outlooks have improved in seven of the Australia 5 3 eight countries and territories, with the exception being Taiwan, where the Outlook remains positive, but is the weakest result since the survey began there in Quarter 2 5. Meanwhile, employers in Australia, Hong Kong, Japan and Singapore are reporting their most optimistic s since the survey began in these countries and territories in 3. Notably, employers in China, Australia and Singapore expect to increase the pace of hiring considerably in comparison to both three months ago and this time last year. China Hong Kong 5 3 China joined the survey in Q2 5. India India joined the survey in Q3 5. 8

11 Japan 5 3 New Zealand New Zealand joined the survey in Q2 4. Singapore 5 3 Taiwan Taiwan joined the survey in Q2 5. 9

12 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey New Zealand International Comparisons Americas Over 21, interviews have been conducted across Canada, Costa Rica, Mexico, Peru and the United States to measure employment prospects for Quarter 4 6. The data shows continued strength and stability in the region with employers in all five countries indicating healthy hiring plans for the final three months of the year. Canada 5 3 The for Peru is considerably improved in comparison to the third quarter and is the most optimistic Outlook reported globally, while the Outlooks reported by employers in the United States, Mexico and Canada are comparable to both three months ago and last year at this time. Canadian employers are forecasting their most optimistic hiring plans in six years. Costa Rica Costa Rica joined the survey in Q3 6. Mexico 5 3 Peru Peru joined the survey in Q2 6. USA

13 International Comparisons EMEA Over 12, interviews have been conducted with employers across 13 EMEA countries to measure anticipated employment trends for Quarter 4 6. Employers in the EMEA region are anticipating varying degrees of positive hiring activity for the next three months, but all intend to add to their existing workforces. Compared to Quarter 4 5, the employment picture has improved in nine countries and weakened in just two Spain and France. Employer hiring expectations Austria 5 3 have improved quarter-over-quarter in six countries, however they have weakened in five. South African employers, who join the survey for the first time this quarter, report the strongest Outlook for the region, along with those in Ireland, Norway and Austria. Notably, employers in Germany and Italy report improved, positive hiring intentions, and join employers in Austria in predicting their strongest hiring plans since the survey began in these countries in 3. The weakest hiring activity in the region and globally is anticipated in France, where employers expect only a slight increase to their workforces over the next three months. Belgium France 5 3 Germany Ireland 5 3 Italy

14 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey New Zealand Netherlands 5 3 Norway South Africa 5 3 Spain South Africa joined the survey in Q4 6. Sweden 5 3 Switzerland UK Switzerland joined the survey in Q3 5. No bar indicates of zero

15 About the Survey The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted quarterly to measure employers intentions to increase or decrease the number of employees in their workforces during the next quarter. The survey has been running for more than years and is one of the most trusted surveys of employment activity in the world. Various factors underpin the success of the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey: Unique: It is unparalleled in its size, scope, longevity and area of focus. Projective: The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is the most extensive, forward-looking employment survey in the world, asking employers to forecast employment over the next quarter. In contrast, other surveys and studies focus on retrospective data to report on what occurred in the past. Focused: For more than four decades, the survey has derived all of its information from a single question. Independent: The survey is conducted with a representative sample of employers from throughout the countries in which it is conducted. The survey participants are not derived from Manpower s customer base. Robust: The survey is based on interviews with more than 49, public and private employers across 26 countries and territories to measure anticipated employment trends each quarter. This sample allows for analysis to be performed across specific sectors and regions to provide more detailed information. Methodology The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted using a validated methodology, in accordance with the highest standards in market research. The research team for the 26 countries and territories where the survey is currently conducted includes Manpower s Market Intelligence team; the Organization Research and Analysis Division of Right Management an independent operating division of Manpower Inc.; NOP World, Grupo IDM and DATUM Research. The survey has been structured to be representative of each national economy. The margin of error for all national, regional and global data is not greater than +/- 4.3%. In New Zealand, the national survey is conducted by external surveyors and includes 852 employers. With this number of interviews, the margin of error for the New Zealand Survey is +/- 3.4%. Survey Question All employers participating in the survey worldwide are asked the same question, How do you anticipate total employment at your location to change in the three months to the end of December 6 as compared to the current quarter? Throughout this report, we use the term Net Employment Outlook. This figure is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating an increase in hiring activity and subtracting from this the percentage of employers that expect to see a decrease in employment at their location in the next quarter. The result of this calculation is the. Seasonal Adjustment Seasonal adjustments have been applied to the data for Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom and the United States to provide additional insight into the survey data. These adjustments make it possible to review the data without the employment fluctuations that normally occur at the same time each year, thus providing a clearer picture of the data over time. Manpower intends to add seasonal adjustments to the data for other countries in the future, as more historical data is compiled. History of the Survey st generation of the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey launched in the United States and Canada Manpower s UK operation launches the equivalent of the United States survey, naming the report the Quarterly Survey of Employment Prospects. The survey adopts the same forward-looking research format as the United States survey and is the first of its kind in Europe nd generation of Manpower s Employment Outlook Survey launched in the United States and Canada. Research methodology is updated to evolve with advancements in the field of market research. 2 Manpower UK s Quarterly Survey of Employment Prospects is updated to adopt an enhanced research methodology. Manpower s operations in Mexico and Ireland launch the survey in their respective countries. 3 3rd generation of the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is launched, expanding the program to a total 18 countries and territories worldwide: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom and United States. 4 Manpower operations in New Zealand launch the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey. 5 Manpower operations in China, India, Switzerland and Taiwan launch the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey. 6 Manpower operations in Costa Rica, Peru and South Africa joined the survey program. Surveys in Australia, Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, Singapore, Spain and Sweden add seasonally adjusted data in the third quarter. 13

16 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey New Zealand About Manpower Inc. Manpower Inc. (NYSE: MAN) is a world leader in the employment services industry; creating and delivering services that enable its clients to win in the changing world of work. The $16 billion company offers employers a range of services for the entire employment and business cycle including permanent, temporary and contract recruitment; employee assessment and selection; training; outplacement; outsourcing and consulting. Manpower s worldwide network of 4, offices in 72 countries and territories enables the company to meet the needs of its, clients per year, including small and medium size enterprises in all industry sectors, as well as the world s largest multinational corporations. The focus of Manpower s work is on raising productivity through improved quality, efficiency and cost-reduction across their total workforce, enabling clients to concentrate on their core business activities. Manpower Inc. operates under five brands: Manpower, Manpower Professional, Elan, Jefferson Wells and Right Management. More information on Manpower Inc. is available at Jefferson Wells delivers professional services in Finance and Accounting, Internal Audit and Controls, Technology Risk Management and Tax. Our seasoned professionals average 18 years of public accounting or industry experience, partnering with clients through professional staff augmentation, complete project solutions and through leadership. About Manpower New Zealand Founded in 1948, Manpower offers its clients 58 years of staffing industry experience. We are listed on the NYSE and currently ranked number 1 on the 5 Fortune 5. In addition to the Manpower brand, in New Zealand the company operates under the brand names of Manpower Professional and Right Management. Please visit for more information. The Manpower Group From strategy to implementation, we are unique in that we create and deliver services that help our clients win in the changing world of work. Manpower is a world leader in the employment services industry. We offer a complete range of services to help clients meet their workforce challenges: permanent, temporary and contract recruitment, employee assessment and selection, training, outsourcing and consulting. Our, customers range from small through mid-size to global corporations. Manpower Professional helps find and retain the best people in IT, e-commerce, Accounting, Finance, Engineering, Sales and Marketing and other business professions. Our recruiters are industry experts who know where to find the top people to suit each client s specific needs. Elan is the world s leading IT resourcing and recruitment consultancy, covering the range of positions from help desk, programmers and telecoms to program managers and IT Directors. Right Management is the world leader in both outplacement and organisational consulting. We help companies attract and assess top talent, grow and develop leaders, engage and align people with strategy, transition and re-deploy employees. 14

17 What we do People From management to staff. Permanent hire to contract. Financial to industrial. Manpower and Manpower Professional find the best people for all types of jobs and industries at all levels. Training Through Manpower, Manpower Professional, Elan and our subsidiary company Right Management, we have a wide choice of training and development solutions. Our awardwinning online training has successfully enhanced the skills of over nine million people worldwide. There are now more than 3,6 courses and, current users of our Global Learning Centre. HR Services Recruiting. Prescreening. Testing. Interviewing. We have a full spectrum of customisable HR Services to reduce your hiring timeline and costs. Candidates are thoroughly screened and evaluated, which means a better fit of employee to work and higher staff retention. Outsourcing Recruitment process outsourcing. Technology enabled solutions. Customised vendor management programs. Business planning. Internal audit and tax operations. Finance and accounting. These are just some of the areas of expertise offered by Manpower and our subsidiary companies. Consulting HR consulting. Research and diagnostics. Benchmarking. Talent architecture. Career transition. Organisation consulting across sectors. Offered through Manpower and Manpower Professional, along with our subsidiaries, Right Management and Jefferson Wells. 15

18 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey New Zealand Notes 16

19 Manpower Services (New Zealand) Pty Ltd, Level 5, 8 Willis Street, Wellington, New Zealand Tel: Fax: , Manpower Inc. All rights reserved.