Norges Bank Review Rate hike at end-2018, steeper FRA-curve, stronger NOK

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1 Investment Research 14 December 2017 Norges Bank Review Rate hike at end-2018, steeper FRA-curve, stronger NOK As expected, Norges Bank (NB) left the sight deposit rate unchanged at 0.50% this morning. The Board maintained the neutral bias introduced formally in the statement in September 2016, but was slightly more hawkish than expected as it stated that the key policy rate in Monetary Policy Report 4/17 is forecast to remain at 0.5 percent in the period to autumn 2018, followed by a gradual increase. Hence, Norges Bank is now signalling a 25bp rate hike in December 2018, which is in line with our forecast. The decision was unanimous. The rate path published in the Monetary Policy Report (MPR) was adjusted upwards from Q3 18 (Chart 2 and Chart 3). Specifically, NB now implies a rate hike in December 2018, compared with the summer of 2019 in September. As expected, the main positive effects on the rate path came from a weaker NOK and a higher oil price. Also, NB adjusted the forecast for mainland GDP upwards in 2018 and 2019, mainly due to higher oil investments. Capacity utilisation is once again considered to be higher than expected. This has been a cornerstone for our long-term call for a December hike, and the developments in the labour market clearly justify this move. On the other hand, lower inflation pulled in the opposite direction. Also, according to NB, the uncertainty surrounding the effects of changes in interest rates when rates are close to zero calls for a more careful approach. In isolation, this pulls the rate path downwards by more than 20bp in Without this, the rate path would have indicated a positive probability of a rate hike as early as March. As the forecasts in the monetary policy are well in line with our own forecast, we still expect NB to hike rates in December Markets are roughly pricing the first hike in Q1 19. FI/Rates. Norges Bank s upward revision of the sight deposit and 3m Nibor projections support our strategy, from Reading the Markets Norway, 11 December, of a steepening of the FRA curve for That is, we suggested selling NOK FRA 3m SEP 2018 and buying NOK FRA 3m SEP We opened the trade at 23.5bp. At present the spread is 29bp after a steepening of 2.5bp at the release of Norges Bank s new forecasts. Still the spread between the 3m Nibor projection of Norges Bank and the market curve is substantial. We share Norges Bank s recovery case and we believe that the market will gradually adjust the 2019 and 2020 FRAs upwards. We therefore reiterate our strategy of being positioned for a steepening of the FRA-curve. Norges Bank s projection of the 3m Nibor in Q4 19 is adjusted up in the MPR from 1.27% to 1.47%, i.e. 20bp. The current NOK FRA 3m SEP 2019 is 1.235%, which is up 5.5bp after the release of the MPR. There should also be potential for a steepening of the 2020 FRA curve. The more hawkish Norges Bank could trigger a stronger NOK trend, which could imply higher demand for short-end NGBs and a corresponding widening of the short end ASW-spread. We therefore suggest keeping open the recently opened strategies of wider ASW-spread for NST473 and NST474. FX. EUR/NOK has fallen to the low end of the 9.70s. Over the past few weeks we have been arguing that a fundamental case for a stronger NOK has been building, with seasonal headwinds fading, investors realising the differences between the Swedish and Norwegian housing market, and taking account of positioning, a positive terms-of-trade shock, real rates spreads, valuation and Nibor fixings moving higher. In FX Top Trades 2018 How to position for the year ahead, 6 December, we entered a short EUR/NOK options position and a long NOK/SEK spot positon. These positions have benefited from today s announcement. Chart 1: NB kept rates unchanged and repeated neutral stance in statement Source: Macrobond Financial, Danske Bank Chart 2. but rate path raised signalling first hike at end-2018 Source: NB, Macrobond Financial, Danske Bank Chart 3: Exchange rate and foreign developments key drivers for higher rate path pp Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Domestic demand Prices and wages Exchange rate Total Source: NB, Macrobond Financial, Danske Bank Chief Economist Frank Jullum fju@danskebank.no Chief Strategist Jostein Tvedt jtv@danskebank.com Senior Analyst Kristoffer Kjær Lomholt Contributing factors for NB rate path changes Oil price Foreign factors Financial imbalances and uncertainty Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 5 of this report.

2 Appendix chart pack Chart 4: Rate path raised to level signalling the first rate hike at end-2018 and second rate hike in mid Chart 5: Exchange rate and foreign developments key drivers for higher rate path pp Contributing factors for NB rate path changes Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Domestic demand Oil price Prices and wages Foreign factors Exchange rate Financial imbalances and uncertainty Total Table 1: Contributing factors for changes to the rate path in table format Quarter Domestic demand Source: Norges Bank, Danske Bank Oil price Contributing factors for rate path changes (pp) Prices and wages Foreign factors Exchange rate Financial imbalances and uncertainty Q1' Q2' Q3' Q4' Q1' Q2' Q3' Q4' Q1' Q2' Q3' Q4' Total 2 14 December

3 Chart 6: Mainland GDP forecasts raised for 2018 and 2019 Chart 7: Petroleum investments projections were raised significantly for 2018 Source: Macrobond Financial, Bloomberg, Danske Bank Chart 8: Household consumption projections lowered somewhat for 2018 Chart 9: Public demand forecasts marginally lowered for 2018 Source: Macrobond Financial, Bloomberg, Danske Bank Chart 10: Output gap projections lifted as expected Chart 11: Core inflation projections (quarterly) also raised Source: Ministry of Finance, Macrobond Financial, Bloomberg, Danske Bank 3 14 December

4 Chart 12: Core inflation (annual) raised Chart 13: Wage growth projections lifted Source: Ministry of Finance, Macrobond Financial, Bloomberg, Danske Bank Chart 14: NB raised the I44 forecast (weaker NOK) Chart 15: but pencilled in stronger NOK appreciation tempo Source: Ministry of Finance, Macrobond Financial, Bloomberg, Danske Bank Chart 16: EUR/NOK roughly 1% lower we still see fundamental case for stronger NOK in 2018 Chart 17: We like to position for steeper FRA curve. Source: Macrobond Financial, Bloomberg, Danske Bank 4 14 December

5 Disclosure This research report has been prepared by Danske Bank A/S ( Danske Bank ). The authors of this research report are Frank Jullum, Chief Economist, Jostein Tvedt, Chief Strategist, and Kristoffer Kjær Lomholt, Senior Analyst. Analyst certification Each research analyst responsible for the content of this research report certifies that the views expressed in the research report accurately reflect the research analyst s personal view about the financial instruments and issuers covered by the research report. Each responsible research analyst further certifies that no part of the compensation of the research analyst was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations expressed in the research report. Regulation Danske Bank is authorised and subject to regulation by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority and is subject to the rules and regulation of the relevant regulators in all other jurisdictions where it conducts business. Danske Bank is subject to limited regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority (UK). Details on the extent of the regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority are available from Danske Bank on request. Danske Bank s research reports are prepared in accordance with the recommendations of the Danish Securities Dealers Association. Conflicts of interest Danske Bank has established procedures to prevent conflicts of interest and to ensure the provision of high-quality research based on research objectivity and independence. These procedures are documented in Danske Bank s research policies. Employees within Danske Bank s Research Departments have been instructed that any request that might impair the objectivity and independence of research shall be referred to Research Management and the Compliance Department. Danske Bank s Research Departments are organised independently from, and do not report to, other business areas within Danske Bank. Research analysts are remunerated in part based on the overall profitability of Danske Bank, which includes investment banking revenues, but do not receive bonuses or other remuneration linked to specific corporate finance or debt capital transactions. Financial models and/or methodology used in this research report Calculations and presentations in this research report are based on standard econometric tools and methodology as well as publicly available statistics for each individual security, issuer and/or country. Documentation can be obtained from the authors on request. Risk warning Major risks connected with recommendations or opinions in this research report, including as sensitivity analysis of relevant assumptions, are stated throughout the text. Expected updates None. Date of first publication See the front page of this research report for the date of first publication. General disclaimer This research report has been prepared by Danske Bank (a division of Danske Bank A/S). It is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute or form part of, and shall under no circumstances be considered as, an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase or sell any relevant financial instruments (i.e. financial instruments mentioned herein or other financial instruments of any issuer mentioned herein and/or options, warrants, rights or other interests with respect to any such financial instruments) ( Relevant Financial Instruments ). The research report has been prepared independently and solely on the basis of publicly available information that Danske Bank considers to be reliable. While reasonable care has been taken to ensure that its contents are not untrue or misleading, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and Danske Bank, its affiliates and subsidiaries accept no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss, including without limitation any loss of profits, arising from reliance on this research report. The opinions expressed herein are the opinions of the research analysts responsible for the research report and reflect their judgement as of the date hereof. These opinions are subject to change and Danske Bank does not undertake to notify any recipient of this research report of any such change nor of any other changes related to the information provided herein. This research report is not intended for, and may not be redistributed to, retail customers in the United Kingdom or the United States. This research report is protected by copyright and is intended solely for the designated addressee. It may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, by any recipient for any purpose without Danske Bank s prior written consent December

6 Disclaimer related to distribution in the United States This research report was created by Danske Bank A/S and is distributed in the United States by Danske Markets Inc., a U.S. registered broker-dealer and subsidiary of Danske Bank A/A, pursuant to SEC Rule 15a-6 and related interpretations issued by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The research report is intended for distribution in the United States solely to U.S. institutional investors as defined in SEC Rule 15a-6. Danske Markets Inc. accepts responsibility for this research report in connection with distribution in the United States solely to U.S. institutional investors. Danske Bank is not subject to U.S. rules with regard to the preparation of research reports and the independence of research analysts. In addition, the research analysts of Danske Bank who have prepared this research report are not registered or qualified as research analysts with the NYSE or FINRA but satisfy the applicable requirements of a non-u.s. jurisdiction. Any U.S. investor recipient of this research report who wishes to purchase or sell any Relevant Financial Instrument may do so only by contacting Danske Markets Inc. directly and should be aware that investing in non-u.s. financial instruments may entail certain risks. Financial instruments of non-u.s. issuers may not be registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and may not be subject to the reporting and auditing standards of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Report completed: 14 December 2017, 11:43 CET Report first disseminated: 14 December 2017, 12:25 CET 6 14 December

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