New Zealand Employment Expectations

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1 The hudson report employment and hr trends New Zealand Employment JANUARY MARCH 12

2 contents Message from the Executive General Manager 3 Introduction and Methodology 4 Summary of Key Findings Permanent Employment 5 Contracting/Temporary Workforce 6 Permanent Employment Overall 7 By Industry 9 By Organisation Size 11 Upper North Island 12 Lower North Island 14 South Island 17 Contracting/Temporary Workforce 19 Your Points of Contact 22

3 MESSAGE from the Executive GENERAl Manager, New Zealand As we kick off the new year, many New Zealand employers are maintaining an attitude of cautious prudence following the recent distractions in 11 of the highly successful Rugby World Cup and the conclusion of the national election. While the local economy is showing modest performance, turbulence in overseas markets and its impact on trading partners closer to home are weighing on employers as they consider their labour planning for 12. The earthquakes in the South Island have created a mammoth rebuilding task in Christchurch and we are seeing the impact of that in record sentiment in some sectors in the south most notably in construction/ property/engineering and IT where demand for project management and specialist construction skills remain high. However, organisations have learnt from the lessons of the previous year. Following a surge in hiring in early 11 in expectation of business activity that either did not eventuate or was not sustained, many organisations are instead currently adopting a wait and see attitude for 12. But the difficulties of the current market also create opportunities for first movers those who proactively attract high performers. Today employers are advised to start 12 with a clear understanding of their own talent pool and identify and work to retain high performers. Organisations who fail to communicate a strong employee value proposition will likely raise eyebrows with those elusive high quality passive job seekers the same individuals who are essential to an organisation s future success. Now, more than ever, it is vital for senior executives to be involved in the recruiting process in order to hire the right talent for their company strategy. I trust these findings will aid in your market insights and business planning as you get back into the swing of things after a safe and relaxing holiday period. On behalf of Hudson New Zealand, I d like to extend a warm thanks to the 1,2 employers who gave up their time to contribute to this report. Kind regards Roman Rogers Executive General Manager, New Zealand 3

4 Introduction and Methodology Introduction The Hudson Report is based on in-depth and nationwide research. Released every quarter, the report uncovers and analyses the hiring expectations of New Zealand employers over the forthcoming quarter and provides insights into a range of human resource issues currently impacting business and the broader New Zealand economy. While a number of industry surveys currently address hiring intentions and job vacancies, The Hudson Report fills the gap with market knowledge and data on broader human resource issues and trends relevant to business leaders. Methodology The Hudson Report has established a reputation as a key socio-economic indicator in the New Zealand market. It captures employers hiring expectations for permanent and contracting/temporary over the forthcoming three months. The Report s quarterly findings on permanent employment expectations are built on the premise that the expectation to increase or decrease permanent staffing levels represents a significant indication of employers optimism for the growth of their organisations. The Hudson Report frequently refers to the term net effect. The net effect figure is calculated by taking the percentage of employers surveyed that expect to increase permanent staff levels, or their contracting/ temporary workforce, during the forthcoming three months and subtracting the percentage of employers surveyed that expect to decrease staff levels. The Hudson Report combines the expectations of key employment decision makers from all major industries across small (< employees), medium ( employees) and large (> employees) organisations and analyses the findings in relation to other key economic indicators (e.g. interest rates and housing figures). For the January to March 12 period 1,2 employers were personally surveyed by Hudson recruitment and consulting professionals. Participants were surveyed from 16 core industry groups as detailed below: Advertising/Marketing/Media Construction/Property/Engineering Education Financial Services/Insurance FMCG Government Healthcare (government) Healthcare (non-government) Information Technology Manufacturing Professional Services Retail Telecommunications Transport Utilities Wholesale/Distribution. 4

5 Summary of Key Findings Permanent Employment The Hudson Report Employment survey for January to March 12 shows the nation s employers are maintaining an attitude of cautious prudence with labour hire plans for the new year. Employer sentiment dropped 4.6pp over the quarter with a net 18.% of employers in New Zealand intending to increase permanent staffing levels before the end of the quarter. Hiring intentions are down 6.4pp year-on-year from January to March 11. Sentiment in the South Island remains the strongest of all regions at net 4.1% a significant 22.1pp above net national sentiment. Employer confidence in the region lifted 1.5pp over the quarter and is up.2pp year-on-year (from 29.9%). Hiring intentions in the lower North Island lifted 1.6pp over the quarter to 14.% but slipped 5.3pp year-on-year. However, more than one quarter (26.1%) of employers in the region are planning to increase the number of permanent employees in the first quarter of 12. Employer confidence in organisations of fewer than people, making up the bulk of New Zealand s businesses, slipped 16.7pp over the quarter to net 16.%. Hiring intentions in medium sized organisations ( employees) slipped 4.8pp over the quarter to a net 19.6% (from 24.5%). Employer sentiment in organisations with over employees dropped 3.1pp over the quarter to net 17.2%, returning to levels experienced in April to June. At net 78.6% employer sentiment in construction/property/engineering in the South Island is the highest recorded in the history of The Hudson Report. At net 43.4% information technology is the nation s most confident sector with 44.7% of hiring managers intending to increase the number of permanent employees in the first quarter of 12. Sentiment in telecommunications lifted 6.4pp over the quarter to net 32.4% following structural changes in the industry and as plans for the rollout of the ultra-fast broadband network continue. 27.5% of employers in all sectors plan to increase permanent headcount in the three months to end of March 12, down 3.8pp over the quarter. A strong 62.9%, plan for headcount to remain steady lifting 3.pp over the quarter. The percentage of employers intending to decrease permanent staff lifted fractionally (up.8pp) over the quarter to 9.6% (from 8.8%). 5

6 Summary of Key Findings Contracting/ Temporary Workforce After an aggressive year of hiring, employer sentiment in the temporary and contractor workforce fell 6.1pp nationally over the quarter to a net 7.9%. Employer confidence also slipped year-on-year, down 6.1pp from 14.% in January to March 12. However, the percentage of hiring managers across New Zealand intending for headcount to remain steady to the end of March 12 lifted 4.1pp over the quarter to a dominant 64.6%. A strong 21.6% of hiring managers intend to increase the number of contractor and temporary employers prior to the end of March 12 with 13.8% planning to decrease contract and temporary employee numbers over the same period. All regions recorded a drop in sentiment for temporary and contract workers over the quarter. Despite hiring intentions in the South Island dropping 11.2pp over the quarter to net 17.2% they remain at near record levels. Hiring intentions dropped in small, medium and large organisations across New Zealand. Following sharp declines in the July September and April June quarters in 11, employee confidence in small organisations slipped 1.7pp over the past three months to a net 6.%. However, sentiment is steady (up.2pp) year-on-year, from 5.8% in January to March 11. Following a strong increase last quarter, employer confidence in medium organisations dropped.4pp in the last three months to net 5.9% (from 16.4%). Sentiment remains down 7.5pp year-onyear, slipping each quarter since January March. Net employer sentiment for temporary and contractor workers in large organisations also fell, down 4.pp over the quarter to net 8.9% and 6.pp down year-on-year. Sentiment has dropped consecutively each quarter since January to March. Sentiment in manufacturing lifted 4.9pp over the quarter to net 18.1% and is up 6.1pp year-on-year. Hiring intentions in information technology also lifted.6pp over the quarter to net 14.5%. 6

7 Overall New Zealand s employers are maintaining an attitude of cautious prudence as 12 gets underway. More than a quarter of the nation s surveyed hiring managers (27.5%) are planning to invest in additional permanent employees in the first quarter of 12. However, at net 18.% employer confidence slipped 4.6pp over the quarter with sentiment down 6.4pp year-on-year from 24.4% in January to March 11. The Treasury is forecasting growth of 2.3% in the year ending March 12, up from 1.8%, stating the increased strength in the economy is expected to persist over the second half of the year. 1 However, the majority of employers remain undecided about prospects for this year, with well over half of the nation s surveyed hiring managers (62.9%) planning for permanent headcount to remain steady to the end of March. Some uncertainty was removed when the results of the national election were decided on 5 December 11 with National forming a minority government following the election on 26 November. The voter turnout of 73.93% was the lowest since The conclusion of the election contributed to an improvement in the National Bank s November business confidence survey with a net 18.3% of respondents expecting conditions to improve over the next 12 months, compared with a net 13.2% in October. 3 These positive predictions were tempered with the recognition from the Treasury that forecasts for economic growth among New Zealand s main trading partners have been revised down from the Budget Update as outturns have been lower and the outlook has deteriorated. 1 Continuing sovereign debt crises in Europe have driven volatility in global financial markets prompting fears of contagion across major markets and among key trading partners. In particular, the likely impact of a recession in Europe and economic difficulties in the US or Asia are a consideration with around % of China s exports going directly to the US and the European Union. 4 Westpac commented that the cooling global economy will make life harder for exporters with the.7% fall in the September terms of trade marking the beginning of the cyclical downturn that we expect over the next year, as the slowing world economy weighs on commodity prices. 5 The rebuilding efforts in Canterbury are expected to offset negative impacts and provide a significant boost to output and employment over the second half of the year. 1 The Treasury commented the influx of government and insurance money as a result NATIONAL PERMANENT EMPLOYMENT EXPECTATIONS July 1999 March July Dec 99 Jan June July Dec Jan June 1 July Dec 1 Jan June 2 July Dec 2 Jan June 3 July Dec 3 Jan June 4 July Dec 4 Jan June 5 July Dec 5 Jan June 6 July Dec 6 Jan June 7 July Dec 7 Jan June 8 July Dec 8 Jan March 9 April June 9 July Sept 9 Oct Dec 9 Jan March April June July Sept Oct Dec Jan March 11 April June 11 July Sept 11 Oct Dec 11 Jan March 12 1 The Treasury. (11, October 25) Pre-election economic and fiscal update TVNZ. (11, November 28). Voting to stay optional despite record low turnout. 3 The National Bank. Business Outlook, November BIS Shrapnel. Economic Outlook November Westpac. (11, December 2). Australia and NZ weekly, week beginning 5 December 11. 7

8 of the Christchurch rebuild will contribute to an economic boost that is now likely to be even larger and longer lived than previously thought, with the official estimate of total damage increasing from $15 billion to $ billion or around % of GDP. Employer sentiment in construction/property/ engineering among employer s in the South Island at net 78.6% is the highest recorded in the history of The Hudson Report. Hiring intentions in information technology are also buoyant at net 42.3%. Overall, employer sentiment in the South Island at net 4.1% is a significant 22.1pp above the national average. In its pre-election fiscal update, the Treasury also predicted wages in and around the rebuild area to come under upward pressure, as well as prices for some goods. 6 We are seeing many organisations focusing on communicating a strong employee value proposition in order to attract passive candidates and avoid a wages spiral as they seek to attract quality candidates in the current market. Statistics New Zealand s national employment indicator for September revealed average ordinary time hourly earnings rose 3.2% for the year to September 11 the largest annual rise since a 4.% increase in the September 9 year. Average total weekly earnings for FTE s also lifted 4.1% in the September 11 year. In addition, the number of filled jobs by wage and salary earners grew 1.2% over the year to September The unemployment rate in New Zealand remains at 6.6% in the third quarter of 11. However, the earthquake rebuild is likely to take longer than initially expected. The Treasury in its October monthly economic indicators stated we have pushed back our estimate of when the rebuild will substantially begin from the first to the second half of This is likely to impact the timing of hiring of permanent headcount. We are seeing some organisations delay hiring and in some cases putting off skilled employees as approved rebuilding faces planning delays. In addition to victory for the host nation, the RWC also brought more than 8, overseas tourists 8 with retail sales volumes rising 2.2% in the September quarter. 9 Figures from Paymark show that foreign electronic card spending for the period of the RWC rose $7 million (36.5%) on the same period last year. 8 Employer confidence among small organisations (< employees) slipped over the quarter (down 16.7pp) following strong growth over the September to December 11 quarter. This may perhaps reflect overall consumer confidence as New Zealand consumers focus on debt reduction and savings. Reflecting the prudent optimism of many surveyed hiring managers, sentiment in medium organisations also dropped in the previous three months, down 4.8pp with employers in large organisations (> employees) also reporting a drop in hiring intentions, down 3.1pp over the quarter. NATIONAL PERMANENT EMPLOYMENT EXPECTATIONS BY REGION July 1999 March Upper North Island Lower North Island South Island July Dec 99 Jan June July Dec Jan June 1 July Dec 1 Jan June 2 July Dec 2 Jan June 3 July Dec 3 Jan June 4 July Dec 4 Jan June 5 July Dec 5 Jan June 6 July Dec 6 Jan June 7 July Dec 7 Jan June 8 July Dec 8 Jan March 9 April June 9 July Sept 9 Oct Dec 9 Jan March April June July Sept Oct Dec Jan March 11 April June 11 July Sept 11 Oct Dec 11 Jan March 12 6 The Treasury. (11, October 25). Pre-election economic and fiscal update Statistics New Zealand. (11, November 29). National employment indicator: September The Treasury. (11, October 28). Monthly economic indicators October Westpac. (11, November 14). The world came to play. 8

9 By Industry Despite rebuilding efforts in Canterbury there was a 15.2pp drop in employer confidence over the quarter to net 36.4% for construction/property/engineering. Information technology at net 43.4% remains the nation s most buoyant sector reflecting the planning and infrastructure demands as many organisations establish new premises following the disruptions of earthquakes in the south. At net 43.4% information technology is continuing to experience positive hiring intentions with 44.7% of hiring managers intending to increase the number of permanent employees in the first quarter of 12. Reflecting past strong growth, employee confidence is down 8.pp over the quarter and down 8.9pp year-on-year (from 52.3% in January to March 11). However, we are expecting hiring intentions in the sector to remain strong as rebuilding efforts in the south gain momentum throughout 12 and beyond. Employer confidence in construction/ property/engineering dropped 15.2pp over the quarter following expectations of the likely extension of timing of rebuilding in the South Island and as organisations negotiate insurance for redevelopment plans. Sentiment in the sector is down 11.4pp year-on-year, from 47.7% in January to March 11 but remains a healthy 21.pp above hiring intentions in January to March and a remarkable.3pp above January to March 9. A robust 42.1% of surveyed hiring managers in the sector are planning to hire permanent staff in the first quarter of 12. Over half, at 52.3%, are reporting intentions for headcount to remain unchanged over the same period. Reflecting recent industry developments in preparation for the rollout of ultra-fast broadband across New Zealand, employee sentiment in telecommunications lifted 6.4pp over the quarter to a net 32.4%. The rise coincides with Telecom New Zealand s completion of the demerger of its Chorus division in late November % of hiring managers in the sector are planning to increase the number of permanent employees prior to the end of March 12. Sentiment is however down 4.pp year-on-year (from 36.4% at the same time last year). While sentiment is 1.9pp below that of January to March it remains a healthy 29.9pp above employer confidence during January to March 9 (2.5%). 56.3% of hiring managers in the sector intend for headcount to remain unchanged to the end of March 12. We expect demand for quality candidates to continue over coming months as major carriers prepare for the upcoming structural changes in the industry. NATIONAL PERMANENT EMPLOYMENT EXPECTATIONS BY INDUSTRY January March 12 (Comparison with Previous Surveys) 6 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q Q Construction/ Engineering/ Property Education Financial Services/ Insurance Government Information Technology Manufacturing Computerworld. (11, December 1). NZ Telecom seals Chorus demerger. 9

10 At net.% sentiment in manufacturing dropped a slight 1.1pp over the quarter and is down 7.2pp year-on-year (from 27.2%). This drop reflects results of the Statistics New Zealand Economic Survey of Manufacturing: September 11 quarter which revealed the volume of manufacturing sales fell 1.4% (seasonally adjusted) for the September quarter, dropping for the second consecutive quarter. 11 A majority of 66.7% of employers in manufacturing plan for headcount to remain steady in the three months to end March 12. More than a quarter of surveyed employers in the sector, at 26.7%, are intending to hire permanent employees over the same period. We expect employers in manufacturing to continue to face the challenge of replacing long-standing employees and the consequential loss of intellectual property as baby boomers in the industry retire. Sentiment in the sector is 2.pp above levels in January to March (18.%) and a healthy 35.5pp above sentiment in January to March 9 (-15.5%). Following the Government s budget announcement of a $1.4 billion investment over the next four years for schools and early education 12, hiring intentions in education dropped 7.3pp over the quarter to a net 11.5% and slipped.1pp year-on-year, from 21.7% in January to March 11. A hefty 73.1% of employers in the sector intend for headcount to remain steady in the coming three months. However, 19.2% plan to increase the number of permanent employees prior to end of March 12. Following continued volatility on overseas financial markets, sentiment in financial services/insurance slipped 11.7pp over the quarter to net 11.2%. While 23.3% of employers in the sector intend adding permanent headcount in the three months to end March 12 hiring intentions are down 12.9pp year-on-year. 12.1% of hiring managers plan to decrease permanent headcount prior to the end of March 12 the second highest of any sector. As access to offshore debt markets becomes more challenging for New Zealand s banks 13 we are seeing strong demand for risk professionals as well as for commercial and business lenders as banks seek to maximise and grow existing business opportunities. At net 9.% employer sentiment in government lifted 7.1pp over the quarter with 84.1% of employers planning to either increase headcount or keep it steady in the first quarter of 12. Sentiment is down 2.pp year-on-year (from.9%) and 3.9pp below that of January to March (12.9%). As government restructuring continues in order to drive cost efficiencies, 15.9% of hiring managers in the government sector intend decreasing the number of permanent employees in the three months to the end of March 12. This is the highest of any sector. Employer sentiment in FMCG dropped 16.1pp over the quarter to net 1.4% and is down.pp year-on-year (from 11.4% in January to March 11) as consumer confidence across New Zealand remains subdued. A healthy majority of 78.9% of hiring managers in the sector intend for permanent headcount to remain steady to end of March 12 the highest of any sector. 11.3% of surveyed hiring managers are planning for headcount to increase and 9.9% are intending headcount to decrease. Employers in FMCG are continuing to focus on technology investment and supply chain efficiencies and we are seeing this focus played out in reduced hiring intentions. 11 Statistics New Zealand. (11, December 8). Economic Survey of Manufacturing: September 11 quarter Media Release. 12 John Key. (11, May ). Post-Budget Speech: Trans-Tasman Business Circle. 13 Reserve Bank of New Zealand. (11, November ). Media Release. Turbulent global markets continue to affect NZ.

11 By Organisation Size Employer confidence in organisations of fewer than people, making up the bulk of New Zealand s businesses, slipped 16.7pp over the quarter to net 16.%. Hiring intentions are down 16.7pp on levels in January to March 11 and are yet to return to sentiment in January to March (4.%). The latest drop follows strong growth last quarter. 22.% of hiring managers in small businesses across New Zealand are intending to increase the number of permanent employees in the three months to end of March 12. A dominant majority of 72.% of hiring managers are planning for headcount to remain unchanged in the first quarter of 12 indicating many business people are remaining cautious until there is evidence of a lift in consumer sentiment. Hiring intentions in medium sized organisations ( employees) slipped 4.8pp over the quarter to a net 19.6% (from 24.5%) the sixth quarterly fall in sentiment in succession. Employer confidence is down 2.6pp year-on-year, however, hiring intentions remain 16.pp above levels during January to March 9 (3.7%). More than a quarter (27.1%) of employers intend increasing the number of permanent employees prior to the end of March % of surveyed hiring managers are reporting plans for headcount to remain steady over the same period. Employer confidence in large organisations (> employees) dropped 3.1pp over the quarter to net 17.2% returning to levels experienced in October to December (17.3%). Hiring intentions are down 7.8pp year-on-year (from 25.% in January to March 11). 28.1% of hiring managers in large organisations across New Zealand intend increasing the number of permanent employees in the first quarter of 12 with.9% intending to decrease the number of permanent employees over the same period. NATIONAL PERMANENT EMPLOYMENT EXPECTATIONS BY ORGANISATION SIZE January March 12 (Comparison with Previous Surveys) 35 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q < (small) (medium) + (large) 11

12 UPPER NORTH ISLAND Sentiment drops 8.3pp over the quarter to net 13.6% and slips 12.pp year-on-year (from 25.6%). Education is the region s most confident sector at net 19.2%. Hiring intentions in construction/property/ engineering lift 2.5pp over the quarter but at net 17.9% remain down 22.5pp year-on-year. Employer confidence in manufacturing rises 1.8pp over the quarter to net 14.3%. As organisations return to business as usual following the national election hiring managers in the upper North Island reported an 8.3pp drop in employer sentiment over the quarter to net 13.6%. In an indication hiring managers remain undecided about talent management plans as we start the year, 66.7% of employers are planning for headcount to remain steady in the coming three months to end of March 12. However, despite signs of caution, 23.5% of employers across the region reported plans to increase the number of permanent employees in the first three months of 12. Focusing on communicating an attractive employee value proposition and conveying a clear sense of an organisation s strategic direction remain important in attracting high performers in the current market. Employer confidence remains 12.pp down year-onyear, from 25.6% in January to March 11. Education is the region s most confident sector with hiring intentions at net 19.2%. 25.5% of hiring managers are expecting to increase the number of permanent employees before the end of March 12. However, sentiment slipped 12.1pp over the quarter and is down 3.9pp year-on-year (from 23.1%). 68.1% of employers in the sector report plans for headcount to remain steady over the first quarter of 12. Employer confidence is 7.9pp below that of January to March, falling each quarter since July to September following government announcements of funding freezes and cost efficiency measures. At net 17.9% construction/property/ engineering remains among the region s most confident sector lifting 2.5pp over the quarter. 26.8% of hiring managers are planning to increase the number of permanent employees before the end of March 12 with a majority of 64.3% of employers intending to keep the number of permanent employees unchanged over the same period. Westpac commented recently that underbuilding in Auckland made a sharp pickup in construction inevitable. 14 Hiring intentions in the sector are down 22.5pp year-on-year, slipping from 4.4% in January to March 11. While sentiment is 4.4pp below January to March it remains 2.8pp above that of January to March 9. UPPER NORTH ISLAND PERMANENT HIRING EXPECTATIONS BY INDUSTRY January March 12 (Comparison with Previous Surveys) 5 4 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q Construction/ Engineering/Property Education Financial Services/ Healthcare Insurance FMCG (excl Govt.) Manufacturing Healthcare (Govt) Telecommunications 14 Westpac. (11, December 2). Australia and NZ weekly, week beginning 5 December

13 Employer confidence in manufacturing lifted 1.8pp over the quarter to net 14.3%. 26.8% of hiring managers in the manufacturing sector report intentions to increase the number of permanent employees prior to the end of March 12. However, employer confidence is down 6.5pp year-on-year with 12.5% of hiring managers reporting plans to reduce the number of permanent employees in the first quarter of 12 the highest of any sector in the region. Sentiment among hiring managers in healthcare (excluding government) dropped 18.5pp over the quarter to net 11.5% and is down.2pp year-on-year. 65.4% of employers in the sector intend for the number of permanent employees to remain unchanged throughout the first quarter of % are planning to decrease the number of permanent employees before the end of March 12 the second highest of any sector in the region. Hiring intentions in telecommunications dropped 23.5pp over the quarter to net 11.1% and are down a significant 26.4pp year-onyear following recent demergers. 22.2% of employers in telecommunications intend decreasing the number of permanent employees before the end of March 12 with 66.7% reporting plans for headcount to remain steady over the same period. Sentiment is 25.pp below January to March but relatively level (down 1.4pp) with that of January to March 9. Echoing turbulence in European financial markets, employer confidence in financial services/insurance at net 9.8% slipped 14.6pp over the quarter and is down 15.5pp year-on-year. Hiring intentions remain steady with employer confidence in January to March. However despite global uncertainty and the corresponding likely increase in the cost of credit,.3% of hiring managers in the sector intend raising the number of permanent employees in the three months to end of March 12. A strong majority of 69.2% surveyed employers are planning to keep the number of permanent employees steady over the same period. At net 4.9% employer confidence in FMCG dropped 8.5pp over the quarter and slipped 12.9pp year-on-year as consumer confidence remains subdued. 78.7% of the sector s hiring managers plan to keep headcount steady in the first three months of 12 the highest of any sector in the upper North Island. 13.1% are planning to increase headcount over that period. Employer confidence in the sector is down 12.9pp on January to March. Employer sentiment for contract and temporary staff slipped 5.6pp over the quarter to net 6.% and dropped 4.5pp year-on-year (from.5% in January to March 11). 67.7% of hiring managers in the upper North Island intend for headcount to remain unchanged in the first quarter of 12. A strong 19.2% of hiring managers in the region intend increasing the number of temporary and contract employees before the end of March 12. UPPER NORTH ISLAND PERMANENT EMPLOYMENT EXPECTATIONS BY ORGANISATION SIZE January March 12 (Comparison with Previous Surveys) 4 35 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q < (small) (medium) + (large) 13

14 Lower North Island Hiring intentions lift 1.6pp over the quarter to net 14.%. Sentiment in healthcare (Govt) up 11.1pp year-on-year to net 7.1%. Sentiment in government rises 5.7pp over the quarter to net 8.9%. Hiring intentions in information technology remain strong at net 34.5% second only to telecommunications at a healthy net 38.2%. Employer sentiment for temporary/ contractor staff falls 2.1pp over the quarter to net 6.2% and is down 7.2pp year-on-year from 13.5% in January to March 11. Employer sentiment in the lower North Island lifted 1.6pp over the quarter to net 14.% following the national election on 26 November 11 and as hiring managers across the region maintain a cautiously optimistic view of economic prospects starting the year. The percentage of employers intending to increase the number of permanent employees prior to end of March 12 remains steady over the quarter at 26.1% (up a fractional.2pp). We are seeing an increased focus on maximising operating efficiencies and labour productivity as hiring the right people for sustained high performance becomes increasingly important in the current environment. The number of hiring managers in the region intending for headcount to remain steady rose to 61.9% up 1.2pp over the quarter. Sentiment in the region is down 5.3pp year-on-year. Hiring intentions in government lifted 5.7pp over the quarter to net 8.9% with a healthy 25.4% intending to increase permanent headcount in the first three months of 12. The threatened increases in the sinking lid of FTEs by a re-elected National Government means employers in the sector have less discretion around employee numbers. It is therefore critical hiring managers focus on ensuring they implement a smart and effective recruitment process. In particular, it is important to tightly identify key competencies and motivators for the roles they are seeking to fill in order to attract high performers who can hit the ground running given there is little room to develop new talent. Change directors, programme directors and programme managers who bring not just skills but key competencies and relevant motivators are in high demand. In contrast,16.6% of employers LOWER NORTH ISLAND PERMANENT EMPLOYMENT EXPECTATIONS BY INDUSTRY January March 12 (Comparison with Previous Surveys) 7 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q Q Financial Services/ Insurance Government All Industries Information Technologies 14

15 in the sector intend decreasing permanent headcount in the first three months of 12 the highest of any sector in the region and a reflection of departmental restructuring. Sentiment is down 2.8pp year-on-year. At net 7.1% hiring intentions in healthcare (government) slipped 6.5pp over the quarter. At 78.6% a decisive majority of hiring managers in the sector intend for permanent headcount to remain steady in the three months to end of March 12. Employer sentiment is up 11.1pp year-on-year with a healthy 14.3% of employers in the sector planning to increase permanent employees in the first quarter of 12. Sentiment in the region s financial services/ insurance sector dropped 4.7pp over the quarter to net.5% and is down 14.5pp year-on-year (from 25.% in January to March 11). The latest drop follows decreases over the last nine consecutive quarters as turbulence in overseas markets continues. However, at 26.3% over a quarter of employers in the sector are planning to increase the number of permanent employees before the end of March 12. Change and project management skills remain in demand across HR, finance and technology with significant demand for risk specialists as financial institutions prepare for heightened compliance obligations. More than half of the employers in the sector, 57.9%, intend making no changes to the number of permanent employees in the first quarter of this year. At net 38.2% the telecommunications sector is the region s most confident lifting a strong 21.6pp over the quarter. A healthy 41.2% of hiring managers in the sector are planning to increase permanent headcount in the three months to end of March 12. More than half, at 55.9%, are intending for headcount to remain steady over the same period. Hiring intentions are down 3.9pp year-on-year (from 42.1% in January to March 11) but remain 6.2pp above employer sentiment in January to March. Hiring intentions in information technology dropped 13.5pp over the quarter to net 34.5% and are down 5.5pp year-on-year. The sector remains the region s second most confident with a robust 37.9% of employers intending to lift permanent headcount in the first three months of % of hiring managers plan on making no change to the number of permanent employees over the same period. Employer confidence is down 11.2pp from 45.7% in January to March. LOWER NORTH ISLAND PERMANENT EMPLOYMENT EXPECTATIONS BY ORGANISATION SIZE January March 12 (Comparison with Previous Surveys) 35 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q < (small) (medium) + (large) 15

16 Hiring intentions in education lifted a strong 7.3pp over the quarter to net -3.9% but sentiment remains down 19.2pp year-on-year following structural changes in the sector. 8.8% of employers in education reported plans for permanent headcount to remain unchanged over the first quarter of 12 the highest of any sector in the region. However, 11.5% of hiring managers are planning to decrease the number of permanent employees over the first quarter of the new year. The potential result is remaining employees being asked to take on increased responsibilities as employers seek enhanced outcomes with fewer people. Employer sentiment for temporary/ contractor staff fell 2.1pp over the quarter to net 6.2% and is down 7.2pp year-on-year from 13.5% in January to March 11. The reduction reflects government s move away from fixed-term contracting. Sentiment is at its lowest since April to June and follows consecutive quarterly declines since April to June. Hiring intentions are 9.4pp below that of January to March but steady (down a fractional.8pp) with levels in January to March 9. A strong 23.8% of employers in the region report intentions to increase the number of temporary and contract employees in the first quarter of 12. We are seeing an increase in the length of fixed term contracts to around 18 months to two years providing individuals with the opportunity to see major projects through until completion. 58.6% of hiring managers in the region are planning for employee levels to remain steady over the same period. 16

17 south Island Employer sentiment lifts 1.5pp to 4.1% over the quarter and is up.2pp yearon-year (from 29.9%). Sentiment in the region remains a strong 22.1pp above the national average. At net 78.6% employer sentiment in construction/property/engineering is the highest on record. Employer sentiment for temporary/ contractors is the strongest of all regions across New Zealand at net 17.2%. Employer sentiment in the South Island remains well above net national sentiment and by far the highest of any region in New Zealand as planning for the massive reconstruction operation in Canterbury continues. Hiring intentions lifted 1.5pp over the quarter to a net 4.1% and remain up a strong.2pp year-on-year from 29.9% in January to March 11. Yet despite the uplift it continues to be a difficult environment for organisations as the complexities of planning and approvals associated with the rebuild become apparent. Employers in the region are increasingly mindful that rebuilding efforts may be occurring over a longer period. However, a remarkable 96.9% of employers in the region expect to either maintain or increase headcount in the coming three months. Of this 96.9%, a strong 43.2% report intentions to increase the number of permanent employees in the first quarter of 12, up 1.3pp over the previous three months. Increased hiring intentions over the past half year has created a shortage of quality candidates and employers are advised to be proactive with their talent management plans in order to benefit from the first mover advantage. Increasingly, highly skilled candidates are in greater demand than ever before and organisations must act quickly to secure their commitment as multiple offer situations again become common. Companies which can clearly articulate and deliver their EVP (Employee Value Proposition), create a positive and engaging working environment, whilst offering competitive packages will continue to grow out of the current climate and leave competitors behind. As rebuilding efforts in the Canterbury region continue, construction/property/ engineering remains the region s most confident sector with employer sentiment at net 78.6% the highest ever in the history SOUTH ISLAND PERMANENT EMPLOYMENT EXPECTATIONS BY INDUSTRY January March 12 (Comparison with Previous Surveys) 9 8 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q Construction/Property/Engineering Manufacturing Information Technology All Industries 17

18 of The Hudson Report. Hiring intentions lifted 2.3pp over the quarter and are up a significant 19.2pp year-on-year (from 59.4% at the same time last year). A remarkable 78.6% of surveyed hiring managers report plans to increase permanent headcount in the first three months of 12. Only 21.4% intend for headcount to remain steady over the same period. No employers indicated plans to decrease the number of permanent employees. Hiring intentions are a remarkable 84.5pp above sentiment in January to March (-5.9%). Immigration New Zealand issued visas to 71 foreign nationals between 1 June and 31 October. The agency recently updated its skills shortage list to include an urgent requirement for civil, electrical and structural engineers. 15 We are seeing strong demand for project managers and project directors for programmes with a two to three year timeframe. Increasingly employers are seeking to fill permanent project roles as estimates for rebuilding timelines extend. At net 42.3% employer confidence in information technology remains strong despite a drop of 5.7pp over the quarter. Hiring intentions are up 4.8pp year-on-year with a dominant 42.3% of employers in the sector reporting plans to increase permanent headcount in the first quarter of 12. Over the last year demand for IT professionals has been intense with many traditionally under resourced IT departments now looking to rebuild teams in the face of development opportunities following the earthquakes. 57.7% plan for permanent headcount to remain steady to end of March 12. Like hiring managers in construction/ property/engineering, the region s most confident sector, no employers are intending to decrease the number of permanent employees prior to the end of March 12. Employer confidence in manufacturing slipped 8.8pp over the quarter to net 26.2% and is down 8.7pp year-on-year. 73.8% of hiring managers intend making no changes to permanent headcount in the three months to end of March 12 with 26.2% reporting intentions to increase the number of permanent employees. Employer sentiment for temporary/ contractors is the strongest of all regions across New Zealand at net 17.2%. After an aggressive year of hiring, 24.% of hiring managers in the South Island report intentions to increase the number of temporary and contract employees before the end of March 12. A strong majority of 69.3% are planning for headcount to remain steady over the same period. As estimates for the rebuild extend, employers are moving contracting and temporary roles to permanent positions. Hiring intentions slipped 11.2pp over the quarter from a particularly high net 28.4% and are down 6.2pp year-on-year from 23.4% in January to March 11. SOUTH ISLAND PERMANENT EMPLOYMENT EXPECTATIONS BY ORGANISATION SIZE January March 12 (Comparison with Previous Surveys) Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q < (small) (medium) + (large) 15 nzherald.com.au. (11, December 2). Skilled brits lead the way for Christchurch rebuild. 18

19 Contracting/Temporary Workforce Sentiment slips 6.1pp over the quarter to net 7.9%. Hiring intentions drop 6.1pp year-on-year, from 14.% in January to March 11. All regions record a drop in sentiment over the quarter and year-on-year. Contracting/temporary employment expectations fell 6.1pp over the quarter to net 7.9% and are down 6.1pp year-on-year from 14.% in January to March 11. Sentiment dropped in all regions over the quarter and also year-on-year with hiring intentions in the South Island recording the largest fall, down 11.2pp over the quarter to net 17.2%. However, at 24.% nearly a quarter of employers in the region report intentions to increase the number of contracting and temporary employees in the three months to end of March 12 the highest of any region. A strong 69.3% are planning for headcount to remain unchanged also the highest of any region. At net 6.2% the lower North Island is the nation s second most confident in relation to employer sentiment for temporary and contract employees with employer confidence slipping 2.1pp over the quarter. 23.8% of the region s surveyed hiring managers intend lifting the number of contracting and temporary employees in the first quarter of 12 with 58.6% planning for temporary and contracting headcount to remain steady. Hiring intentions in the upper North Island declined 5.6pp over the quarter to net 6.%. The region experienced the smallest year-on-year drop of any region down 4.5pp from the same time last year. Reflecting the cautiousness of employers across the nation, 67.7% of the region s hiring managers report plans for temporary and contract headcount to remain unchanged throughout the first quarter of 12. At net 6.% employer sentiment for contract and temporary employees in the upper North Island is close behind that in the lower North Island. 19.2% of employers in the region are planning to increase contracting and temporary employee numbers in the first quarter of the New Year. However, hiring intentions in the region fell 5.6pp over the quarter and are down 4.5pp year-on-year. 67.7% of employers in the region are planning for headcount to remain steady throughout January to March 12. CONTRACTING/TEMPORARY EMPLOYMENT EXPECTATIONS BY INDUSTRY January March 12 (Comparison with Previous Surveys) 35 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q Construction/ Engineering/Property Education Financial Services/ Government Information Technology Manufacturing Insurance 19

20 Contracting/Temporary Workforce Hiring intentions in manufacturing lifted 4.9pp over the quarter to net 18.1% making the sector the most confident in relation to temporary and contracting employer sentiment. Sentiment is up 6.1pp year-onyear (from 12.% at the same time last year). A strong 28.6% of employers in manufacturing plan to increase the number of temporary and contract employees prior to the end of March % are planning for the number of temporary and contract staff to remain steady over the same period. Reflecting the robustness of sentiment in the sector, hiring intentions are up 4.6pp from January to March. At net 14.5% hiring intentions in information technology remained steady, lifting a fractional.6pp over the quarter. An overwhelming majority of employers in the sector, 75.%, are planning for contracting and temporary headcount to remain steady to the end of March 12. A strong 19.7% are intending to increase the number of temporary/contract employees prior to the end of March 12. Sentiment in the sector is also steady year-onyear, a fractional.6pp below hiring intentions in January to March 11. Employer sentiment in education lifted 9.8pp over the quarter to net 14.1% and is relatively steady year-on-year, down a fractional.9pp from the same time last year. 25.6% of hiring managers in the sector reported intentions to increase the number of temporary and contracting employees in the first quarter of 12 with 62.8% planning on headcount remaining steady. 11.5% of surveyed hiring managers intend decreasing staff levels. CONTRACT/TEMPORARY EMPLOYMENT EXPECTATIONS BY REGION January March 12 (Comparison with Previous Surveys) 25 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q Upper North Island Lower North Island South Island

21 Contracting/Temporary Workforce At net 8.5% hiring intentions in telecommunications fell 5.6pp over the quarter but remain 8.5pp above sentiment in January to March % of hiring managers are planning for headcount to remain unchanged with 28.2% intending to lift the number of contract and temporary employees in the first quarter of the new year. Sentiment in construction/property/ engineering plummeted.5pp over the quarter to net 6.8% and is down 18.2pp year-on-year. However, despite the drop a strong 19.3% of hiring managers intend increasing the number of contract and temporary employees in the first quarter of % plan for levels to remain unchanged over the same period. Employer confidence in government slipped 2.1pp over the quarter to net 6.% and is down 4.4pp year-on-year (from.4% in January to March 11). Hiring intentions are 3.1pp above levels in January to March. More than half (54.2%) of employers in the sector intend for headcount to remain steady with 25.9% planning to increase the number of temporary and contracting employees in the three months to end of March 12. Reflecting permanent employment trends in the sector, sentiment in financial services/ insurance dropped 13.3pp over the quarter to net 2.2% and is down 13.3pp year-on-year (from 15.4%). 14.7% of hiring managers plan to decrease the number of temporary and contract employees in the first quarter of this year with 16.8% intending to increase numbers over the same period. Hiring intentions are 1.pp above January to March. At net 1.4%, employer confidence in FMCG dropped 11.3pp over the quarter and is down 1.4pp year-on-year. 19.7% of the sector s employers report plans to decrease temporary and contracting headcount in the first quarter of 12 with 21.1% intending to increase staff levels over the same period. Hiring intentions remain 4.4pp above that of January to March. CONTRACT/TEMPORARY EMPLOYMENT EXPECTATIONS BY ORGANISATION SIZE January March 12 (Comparison with Previous Surveys) 25 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q < (small) (medium) + (large) 21

22 your points of contact New Zealand Roman Rogers Executive General Manager t (9) Auckland Roman Rogers General Manager, Auckland t (9) Wellington Mike Dickson General Manager, Wellington t (4) Christchurch Ged Clink General Manager, Christchurch t (3) About Hudson Hudson (NASDAQ: HHGP) is a leading provider of permanent recruitment, contract professionals and talent management services worldwide. From single placements to total project solutions, Hudson helps clients achieve greater organisational performance by assessing, recruiting, developing and engaging the best and brightest people for their businesses. The company employs more than 2, professionals serving clients and candidates in approximately countries. More information is available at nz.hudson.com. 22

23 hudson Adelaide Auckland Brisbane Canberra Christchurch Melbourne Mount Waverley Hunter/Central Coast Greater Western Sydney Perth Sydney Wellington nz.hudson.com

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