Information & Communications Technology (ICT) Global Enrolment Trends in Tertiary Education. Labour Market Trends in Australasia

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Neil Kennedy
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1 Information & Communications Technology (ICT) Global Enrolment Trends in Tertiary Education & Labour Market Trends in Australasia Tertiary IT Conference 2009 Garry Roberton Waikato Institute of Technology

2 Content: Trends: Tertiary Enrolments (past & recent) NZ & global Institutes of Technology & Polytechnics (ITP) Information & Communications Technology (ICT) Wintec School of IT (Diploma & Bachelor) Gender balance NZ & global perspective ICT Job Market (past & recent) Australasia

3 2002 to % Increase in EFTS 90,000 Total ITP EFTS 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 EFTS Linear (EFTS) 30,000 20,000 10, Education Counts (Accessed May 2009)

4 2002 to % Decline in EFTS ITP ICT EFTS (49% Decline Between 2002 & 2007) 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 8% Increase 2007 to % Increase 2008 to 2009? 2,500 2,000 EFTS Poly. (EFTS) 1,500 1, Year Source: NACCQ Statistics (Accessed March 2009)

5 NZ Vacancy Rate & Unemployment Rate March 2000 March 2009 DoL Skills Insight ( Accessed August 2009)

6 USA - Computer Science Enrolments 8% Increase Computer science major is cool again Carolyn Duffy Marsan, 03/17/2009 U.S. undergraduate majors rise 8.1%, first increase since 2000 CRA Taulbee Report ( Accessed April 2009)

160 169 Male Female 30% 20% 10% 0% 101 84 80 67 58 48 52 2002 2003

7 Wintec ICT Enrolments by Gender Approximately 80:20 ICT Enrolments Levels 5, 6 & 7 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% % 40% Male Female 30% 20% 10% 0% Source: Student MIS (Accessed March 2009)

8 USA Computer Science & Computer Engineering Graduates - Approximately 1 in 10 Female

NZ Occupations for Computer Science Distribution by Gender 2006 100%

9 NZ Occupations for Computer Science Distribution by Gender % 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Female Male DoL JVM Shortage ( Accessed August 2009)

quals only Post-school qualified & Degree and higher 50%

10 NZ Occupations for Computer Science Highest Educational Qualification % No qualifications 70% 60% School quals only Post-school qualified & Degree and higher 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% DoL JVM Shortage ( Accessed August 2009)

New Zealand ICT Vacancies Index May 2003 to May 2006 300% increase (Total jobs

11 New Zealand ICT Vacancies Index May 2003 to May % increase (Total jobs relatively static) McCallum, S. Dept. of CS, University of Otago (Accessed April 2009)

Australia ICT Vacancies Index Jan 2003 to Jan 2008

12 Australia ICT Vacancies Index Jan 2003 to Jan % increase SkillsInfo Australia (Accessed April 2009)

13 IT Regional Vacancies in NZ Dec 2006 to Dec % Increase DoL JVM (Accessed May 2008)

120% NZ Vacancy Fill Rates 2006 & 2007 100% 80% 60% 40%

14 120% NZ Vacancy Fill Rates 2006 & % 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% DoL JVM Shortage ( Accessed August 2009)

IT Vacancies (NZ) Sept 2008 to April 2009 57% Decline Seek IT Job Vacancy Trends 3500 3000 3487

15 IT Vacancies (NZ) Sept 2008 to April % Decline Seek IT Job Vacancy Trends Seek IT Sept 2007 Sept 2008 Apr-09 Seek IT (Accessed March 2009)

16 IT Vacancies - Rest of NZ 107 Seek IT Jobs by Region April 2009 Total 1270 Christchurch Wellington Auckland Wellington Christchurch Total Auckland Seek IT (Accessed March 2009)

17 NZ Vacancy Rate & Unemployment Rate March 2000 March 2009 DoL Skills Insight ( Accessed August 2009)

18 Difficulty of Finding Skilled (& Unskilled) Labour DoL Skills Insight ( Accessed August 2009)

19 Australia Decline in ICT State Vacancies NSW - 52% // Victoria - 56% SkillsInfo Australia (Accessed April 2009)

20 Australian ICT Labour Market Feb 2009 Note: Click on any line below while running the slide show ICT LABOUR MARKET INDICATORS This presentation provides an overview of the demand side of the ICT labour market in Australia or Labour Supply and Skills Branch Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations February 2009

21 Wintec Information Technology Services Percentage of staff - Wintec School of IT graduates 42% Wintec School of IT Graduates Remainder

22 Global recession to hit investment in IT training market Bangalore, July 27 Indo-Asian News Service (IANS) Gartner - Investment in IT training and software certification is set to decline by 25 percent in the Asia-Pacific region this fiscal as budgets on tech spending fall due to recession. At the same time, the pent-up demand for skilled engineers will force the firms in the region to scout for talent. The need for more human capital will encourage corporations to invest judiciously in training in hardware and software. The IT training market size in the region is estimated to touch $13.6 billion in 2013 from $5.6 billion, despite tremors being felt due to the meltdown. Once the economy recovered and IT budgets restored over the next months, the study estimated that the industry in the region would require about 1.5 million skilled personnel by Thaindian News (Accessed August 2009)

23 Conclusions: ICT Enrolment trends; 50% decline 2002 to 2007 Coincided with high employment /low unemployment rates 8% increase in 2008 (NZ & the USA) 12% to 15% in 2009 (NZ)? Impacted/influenced by the global economic recession Gender imbalance in the field of ICT an ongoing challenge Australasian job market; Global recession having a significant impact Pockets of skill shortages still evident Future IT/ICT job potential extremely healthy?

24 In times of global recession it is those organisations who have good governance practices in place (IT being a major enabler and expense item in most organisations), and good HR practices in terms of recruiting, developing and retaining IT skills (that) will have major advantages over those who don t. Quote from Maxsys (Murray Wills), February 2009 (Accessed August 2009)

SEEK NZ Employment Indicators, May Commentary

SEEK NZ Employment Indicators, May 12 Commentary In May 12 the number of new job ads registered with SEEK (seasonally adjusted) rose by 3.8%, to be 3.9% higher than three months earlier and 6.4% higher