SEEK NZ Employment Indicators, May Commentary

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "SEEK NZ Employment Indicators, May Commentary"

Sabina Hoover
5 years ago
Views:

1 SEEK NZ Employment Indicators, May 12 Commentary In May 12 the number of new job ads registered with SEEK (seasonally adjusted) rose by 3.8%, to be 3.9% higher than three months earlier and 6.4% higher than in May 11. Although the SEEK Employment Index (the ratio of new job ads placed with SEEK during the month to the number of applications for those jobs) fell by 1.3% in May 12 this reflected a rapid rise in applications for new jobs becoming available in the month. In May the Index was 3.4% higher than three months ago and 1.2% higher than in May 11. Thus in spite of continued month-to-month volatility these indicators continue to underline the steadily improving state of the labour market in New Zealand. This modest underlying improvement, at a time of continued difficulty in the global economy, is also evident in Figure 1A, which shows the moving three month percentage changes in new job ads and the SEEK Index. The change in job ads has been positive over the five successive three month periods in 12 to date, with some rise in the rate of growth. The change in the SEEK Index has been more volatile, but has been positive in four of the five such periods. While the growth in job ads in the Canterbury region continues to be strong new ads for this region rose by 4.6% in May 12 and were 33.3% higher than a year earlier a notable feature of recent data has been a strengthening in the two largest markets, Auckland and Wellington. New job ads in Auckland were weak for a six month period from the end of hiring for the 11 Rugby World Cup in July 11, but have gradually picked up in recent months. Although they rose by 3.9% in May 12, they were still 1.9% lower than a year earlier. New job ads in Wellington have also picked up in recent months, rising by 2.% in May to be 7.9% higher than a year earlier. These labour market trends appear to reflect emerging strength in the New Zealand economy, with housing market and building activity picking up and likely being reinforced as reconstruction activity in Canterbury increases during the year. The rise of 3.8% in new job ads placed with SEEK for New Zealand, compared with the decline of 1.% in such ads for Australia, further highlights the contrasting trends in the economies and labour markets of the two countries. Figure 1B shows that, relative to a base of January 11, ads have been significantly stronger in New Zealand in the past six months. By May 12 new job ads were, on this basis, 1.3% higher than in New Zealand than in Australia, and all of this divergence has taken place in the past six months. The Reserve Bank of Australia has responded to a slowing non-resource economy by two reductions in the cash rate, totalling 75 basis points, in the past five weeks. But, at 3.5%, the cash rate in Australia is still higher than the NZ figure of 2.5%, and both are a good deal higher than comparable rates in the USA and Europe. Professor Peter Sheehan Director, Centre for Strategic Economic Studies, Victoria University

2 Figure 1A: Quarterly percentage changes in SEEK New Job Ads and Employment Index (seasonally adjusted), May 11 to May 12 % May-11 Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 New job ads Employment index Figure 1B: New job ads placed with SEEK, New Zealand and Australia, January 11 to May 12 (seasonally adjusted: January 11 = 1) New Zealand Australia. 2

The SEEK Employment Index is the first New Zealand indicator to measure labour market supply and compare this against labour market demand. Each monthly release includes two key indicators: 1.

3 The SEEK Employment Index is the first New Zealand indicator to measure labour market supply and compare this against labour market demand. Each monthly release includes two key indicators: 1. The SEEK Employment Index (SEEK EI), a dynamic snapshot of matching between the supply of jobseekers and demand for workers (i.e., the ratio of new job advertisements posted on the SEEK website to job applications for those SEEK job ads); and 2. Candidate Demand, as measured by new job advertisements posted on the SEEK website; These indicators provide useful insights into the dynamics of the New Zealand labour market. For further explanation on the applications of use please refer to the SEEK Employment Index launch document available at Figure 1. SEEK Employment Index (January 5 = 1), seasonally adjusted 8 Tightening labour market 6 4 Trend Seas. Adj. Softening labour market May-8 May-9 May-1 May-11 May-12 Seasonally adjusted, the SEEK Employment Indicator (SEI) - the ratio of new job ads placed with SEEK during the month to the number of applications for those jobs fell 1.3% in May 12 The decline was driven by a surge in job applications that more than offset a solid rise in job ads. The SEI is now 1.2% higher than in May last year. At the regional level, the SEI fell in Auckland (-1.5%), Wellington (-6.5%), and remote areas in South Island (-15.3%) but rose in Canterbury (4.3%) and the rest of North Island (6%). The seasonally adjusted SEI series in the last six months was 54% of the level observed in May 8 for New Zealand, 48% for Auckland, 45% for Wellington, 57% for the rest of North Island, 112% for Canterbury, and 42% for other regions in South Island.. 3

Figure 2. SEEK New Job Ads Index (January 5 = 1), seasonally adjusted 25 15 1 5 May-8 May-9 May-1 May-11 May-12 The seasonally adjusted SEEK New Job Ads series rose 3.8% in May 12.

4 Figure 2. SEEK New Job Ads Index (January 5 = 1), seasonally adjusted May-8 May-9 May-1 May-11 May-12 The seasonally adjusted SEEK New Job Ads series rose 3.8% in May 12. New job ads are now 6.4% higher than May last year. The rise in job ads this month was pervasive across the nation: Auckland (3.9%), Wellington (2%), other locations in North Island (2.8%), Canterbury (4.6%) and the rest of South Island (12.6%). In comparison to May 8, the SEEK New Job Ads series is lower by 25% in New Zealand, 36% in Auckland, 31% in Wellington, 14% in other regions in North Island and 21% in South Island Other. In contrast, the series is 49% higher in Canterbury. Top 5 most competitive occupations: Industry Occupation I.T. & T Help Desk/Support Call Centre/Cust. Service Customer Service Administration Administration Retail & Consumer Prods. Retail: Sales Assistant Accounting Accounts Clerk/Admin If you are looking for a place in one of these categories it is vital that you get a competitive edge and present yourself in the best light - the competition is fierce. Hundreds of applicants are received for each position advertised, making these SEEK s Top 5 most competitive occupations. Top 5 occupations in most demand: Industry Occupation I.T. & T Consultant/Funct. Consultant Engineering Management Government/Defence Government: Local Legal Solicitor: Private Practice Healthcare & Medical Nursing/Midwives The special group! If you are seeking for a place in these categories and you have the relevant skills and experience, you are lucky and highly sought after. Be it due to increasing demand or a critical shortage of specialised skills, these positions are the hardest to fill.. 4

5 REGIONAL DATA The following charts illustrate the SEEK Employment Index by City and Region classified on the basis of the location of the advertiser, not necessarily by the locality of the position. Figure 3. SEEK Employment index by Region (January 5 = 1), seasonally adjusted 1 AUK 1 WEL AUK N Z WEL N Z May-8 May-9 May-1 May-11 May-12 May-8 May-9 May-1 May-11 May-12 8 NIO 8 CAN NIO N Z CAN N Z May-8 May-9 May-1 May-11 May-12 May-8 May-9 May-1 May-11 May-12 SIO SIO N Z 5 May-8 May-9 May-1 May-11 May-12 May-8 May-9 May-1 May-11 May May-8 May-9 May-1 May-11 May-12 May-8 May-9 May-1 May-11 May-12 Note: AUK, WEL, NIO, CAN, SIO and NZ stand for Auckland, Wellington, North Island Other, Canterbury, South Island Other and New Zealand respectively. Since July 1, SEEK has redefined the South Island regions as Canterbury and South Island Other, previously composed of Christchurch and South Island Other.. 5

6 Table 1. SEEK Employment Index (SEEK EI), Seasonally Adjusted (see Figure 1) Month EI Index Orig. EI Index SA Annual % Change Monthly % Change May % -3.4 % Jun % -2.9 % Jul % % Aug % -2.8 % Sep % -3.7 % Oct % -6. % Nov % -9.4 % Dec % -9. % Jan % -17. % Feb % % Mar % -8.2 % Apr % -6.6 % May % -5.6 % Jun % -3.3 % Jul % 8.8 % Aug % 2. % Sep % 2.2 % Oct % 2.6 % Nov % 1.6 % Dec % 1.1 % Jan % 1.6 % Feb % 1.4 % Mar %.6 % Apr % -2.2 % May % -1.1 % Jun %.3 % Jul % 8.2 % Aug %.2 % Sep % -4.2 % Oct % 7.6 % Nov % 1.1 % Dec %.4 % Jan % 6.7 % Feb % -.8 % Mar % -1.3 % Apr % 3.1 % May % -3.9 % Jun % -. % Jul % 2.2 % Aug % -3.3 % Sep % -2.1 % Oct % -5.6 % Nov % 2.6 % Dec % 3.6 % Jan % 11.9 % Feb % -9.9 % Mar % 3.5 % Apr % 1.2 % May % -1.3 % Note: Annual change is the percentage change from the same month in the previous year. Monthly change is the change from the previous month. Estimates are aggregates for New Zealand. Since July 1, SEEK has redefined the South Island regions as Canterbury and South Island Other. Previously, the South Island was composed of Christchurch and South Island Other.. 6

7 Table 2. SEEK New Job Ads Index, Seasonally Adjusted (see Figure 2) Month Ads Index Orig. Ads Index SA Annual % Change Monthly % Change May % -1.8 % Jun % -2.5 % Jul % -1.5 % Aug % -2.9 % Sep % -2.8 % Oct % -1. % Nov % -6.8 % Dec % -5.9 % Jan % -8.3 % Feb % % Mar % -9. % Apr % -7.4 % May % 2.4 % Jun % -6.1 % Jul % -3. % Aug % 5. % Sep % 4.5 % Oct % 9.1 % Nov % -.5 % Dec % 1.6 % Jan % 9.2 % Feb %.6 % Mar % -.2 % Apr % 1. % May %.6 % Jun % 1.8 % Jul % 7. % Aug % -2.1 % Sep % -1.4 % Oct % 6.9 % Nov % -1.5 % Dec % 4.7 % Jan % 2.1 % Feb % -.2 % Mar % -1.8 % Apr % 11.2 % May % -6.9 % Jun % -.8 % Jul % 5.6 % Aug % -2.4 % Sep % -.9 % Oct % -3.2 % Nov % 2.6 % Dec % 5. % Jan % -5.1 % Feb % 2.3 % Mar % 4.3 % Apr % -4.1 % May % 3.8 % Note: Annual change is the percentage change from the same month in the previous year. Monthly change is the change from the previous month. Estimates are aggregates for New Zealand. Since July 1, SEEK has redefined the South Island regions as Canterbury and South Island Other. Previously, the South Island was composed of Christchurch and South Island Other.. 7

8 Table 3. SEEK New Jobs Ads Index by Region, Seasonally Adjusted Month AUK WEL NIO CAN SIO NZ May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Note: Annual change is the percentage change from the same month in the previous year. Monthly change is the change from the previous month. AUK, WEL, NIO, CAN, SIO and NZ stand for Auckland, Wellington, North Island Other, Canterbury, South Island Other and New Zealand respectively. Since July 1, SEEK has redefined the South Island regions as Canterbury and South Island Other. Previously, the South Island was composed of Christchurch and South Island Other. Also, the state and national series are seasonally adjusted separately and, as a result, there may be some discrepancy between the national and the average of the state series.. 8

9 Table 4. SEEK EI, by City and Region, Seasonally Adjusted (see City and Regions charts) Month AUK WEL NIO CAN SIO NZ May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Note: Annual change is the percentage change from the same month in the previous year. Monthly change is the change from the previous month. AUK, WEL, NIO, CAN, SIO and NZ stand for Auckland, Wellington, North Island Other, Canterbury, South Island Other and New Zealand respectively. Since July 1, SEEK has redefined the South Island regions as Canterbury and South Island Other. Previously, the South Island was composed of Christchurch and South Island Other. Also, the state and national series are seasonally adjusted separately and, as a result, there may be some discrepancy between the national and the average of the state series.. 9

An explanation of the SEEK indicators are as follows: Advertiser an individual or organisation who has placed an advertisement on the SEEK website.

10 An explanation of the SEEK indicators are as follows: Advertiser an individual or organisation who has placed an advertisement on the SEEK website. SEEK charges advertisers to post an advertisement to the website. Application a response made to a job advertisement via the SEEK website through the Apply Now function, which sends responses directly to the advertiser. Duplicate Job Advertisement a job advertisement consisting of the same title and content as another advertisement posted to the SEEK website in the same month. This includes advertisements posted to different classifications (industry, occupation and location). Index a numerical scale used to compare variables with one another or with some reference number ( indexation point ). It illustrates relative changes in data over time. Industry defined as the SEEK industry classification in which the job advertisement was first placed, eg. Accounting. SEEK industry classifications have been mapped to the ANZSIC industry codes. Job Advertisement a posting made to the SEEK website advertising a specific position of employment that is available to be filled. Jobseeker an individual who visits the SEEK website with the view to searching for a job opportunity. SEEK does not charge jobseekers to apply for jobs. Labour market demand a measure of the level and composition of employment that employers wish to engage at a given point in time; given current wage rates, output levels and other relevant factors. Labour market supply a measure of the number of people seeking new employment including those working or available for work. It reflects the availability and willingness of actual and potential employees to supply labour of a particular structure and composition, given wage rates and other working conditions. Linked-Out Job Advertisement a job advertisement that requires applications to be lodged via a third-party website. The SEEK database does not record application volumes for linked-out advertisements. Location defined as the SEEK location classification in which the job advertisement was first placed, e.g. Auckland. Locations are broken down into major cities and non-metropolitan regions. Since July 1, SEEK has redefined the South Island regions as Canterbury and South Island Other. Previously, the South Island was composed of Christchurch and South Island Other. Thus, prior to July 1 the Canterbury series are identical to those of Christchurch, as in past estimates. New Job Ads this is the number of new job ads posted on seek.co.nz in that month. The series is adjusted to ensure that multiple postings count as only one ad. Multiple postings occur when an ad is posted several times across several classifications or when a client cancels and re-posts the same ad within the same month. Due to data availability, the New Job Ads series at the regional level has not been adjusted for postings in multiple states. Occupation defined as the SEEK occupation classification in which the job advertisement was first placed, eg. Payroll. There are over 3 SEEK occupational categories. Seasonal Adjustment Seasonal adjustment was carried out by the SEATS/TRAMO model developed by the Bank of Spain. The model employs signal extraction techniques to pre-adjust the series for outlier and calendar effects. The adjustment accounts for working day and holiday effects. Also, the concurrent approach to seasonal adjustment was adopted in May 6. This means that each month the above model is reestimated using the full data set available to that month. Thus, historical seasonally adjusted data may vary slightly from month to month, as revised seasonal factors are applied to the fixed original data. Note also that in order to account for regional diversity and to arrive at more robust adjustments for the national series, the regional and national series are adjusted separately and, thus, there may be some discrepancy between the national and the average of the regional series from time to time. SEEK Employment Index (EI) this is the number of new job ads posted on SEEK per applications received. Here, the New Job series is net of Linked Out job advertisements: ads channelled outside the SEEK website and for which applications are lodged directly with a third party. The New job ads are for full-month while application series are defines as number of applications made on SEEK last month and 7 days into the next month for new jobs posted. The latter is initially forecast and subsequently updated with actual figures. Disclaimer This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any recipient for any purpose. Under no circumstances is this document to be used or considered to be an offer to sell, or to be soliciting an offer to buy. The information and any opinions contained in this document have been obtained from and are based upon, sources that are believed to be reliable. The views expressed in this document accurately reflect the authors personal views. The authors make no representation as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and/or opinions and neither the information nor the opinions should be relied upon as such. All opinions and estimates contained in this document reflect the authors judgments on the date of this document and may change without notice from time to time. The authors compensation, remuneration or any money paid to the authors for production of this document was in no way, and never will be directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations, views or opinions expressed about any matter contained in this document. The Centre for Strategic Economic Studies and Victoria University disclaim any responsibility, and shall not be liable for data provided by SEEK Limited and market analysis based on these data. SEEK Limited and its related bodies corporate, their respective directors, officers, and employees disclaim any responsibility, and shall not be liable, for any loss, damage, claim, liability, proceedings, cost or expense ( Liability ) arising directly or indirectly (and whether in tort (including negligence), contract, equity or otherwise) out of or in connection with the contents of and/or any omissions from the contents of this document and/or any communications in relation to them.. 1

SEEK EI, February Commentary

SEEK EI, February Commentary SEEK EI, February 11 Commentary The SEEK indicators for February 11 again show that the economy is experiencing continued steady growth in spite of the impact of natural disasters and the quite different