Navy Nuclear Recruiting Markets: Race-Ethnic/gender Qualification Rates

Transcription

1 alhun: The NPS Institutinal Arhive Reprts and Tehnial Reprts All Tehnial Reprts lletin Navy Nulear Reruiting Markets: Rae-Ethni/gender Qualifiatin Rates Thmas, Gerge W. Mnterey, alifrnia. Naval Pstgraduate Shl

2 S23 NPS-AS NAVAL PSTGRADUATE SHL Mnterey, alifrnia Navy Nulear Reruiting Markets: Rae-Ethni/Gender Qualifiatin Rates Gerge Thmas & Kathryn Kher Deember, 1993 Apprved fr publi release; distributin unlimited. Prepared fr: Navy Reruiting mmand de N.Randlph St. PedDs Arlingtn, VA D /2 NPS-AS

3 NAVAL PSTGRADUATE SHL Mnterey, A RADM T.A. Merer Harrisn Shull Superintendent Prvst The reprt was prepared fr and funded by the Navy Reruiting mmand, Arlingtn, VA. Reprdutin f all r part f this reprt is authrized This reprt was prepared by:

4 REPRT DUMENTATIN PAGE Frm Apprved MB N Publi reprting burden fr this lletin f infrmatin is estimated t average 1 hur per respnse, inluding the time fr reviewing instrutins, searhing existing data sures, gathenni and maintaining the data needed, and mpleting and reviewing the lletin f infrmatin Send mments regarding this burden estimate r any ther aspet f this lletin infrmatin, inluding suggestins fr reduing this burden, t Washingtn Headquarters Servies, Diretrate fr inlnfrmatin peratins and Reprts, 1215 Jeffersn Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlingtn, VA , and t the ffie f Management Budget, Paper Redutin Prjet ( ), Washingtn, D AGENY USE NLY (Leave Blank) REPRT DATE Deember, TITLE AND SUBTITLE Navy Nulear Reruiting Markets: Rae-Ethni/Gender Qualifiatin Rates 6. AUTHR(S) Gerge Thmas & Kathryn Kher REPRT TYPE AND DATES VERED Tehnial Reprt, Deember, FUNDING NUMBERS N WR02063 fi n 3 Is 3 n > 73 X» i PERFRMING RGANIZATIN NAMES(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) Naval Pstgraduate Shl Department f Systems Management 555 Dyer Rd., Rm. 229 Mnterey, A SPNSRING /MNITRING AGENY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) Naval Pstgraduate Shl Department f Systems Management 555 DyerRd., Rm. 229 Mnterey, A PERFRMING RGANIZATIN REPRT NUMBER NPS-AS SPNSRING/MNITRING AGENY REPRT NUMBER 11. SUPPLEMENTARY NTES 12a. DISTRIBUTIN / AVAILABILITY STATEMENT 12b. DISTRIBUTIN DE Apprved fr publi release; distributin unlimited 13. ABSTRAT (Maximum 200 wrds) This reprt presents explratry mdel-building fr identifying and analyzing the reruiting market fr Navy upatins in the highly tehnial nulear field. Variatin in eligibility fr nulear upatins by rae and gender subsets f the reruiting market is examined. Lgisti regressin mdels fr rae/gender market segments estimate the relatinship f sienmi fatrs and gegraphi latin t fur lassifiatins f mental qualifiatins: (1) high quality (mental ategry IMA and abve) eligible fr Navy nulear upatins, (2) high quality nt eligible fr these highly tehnial upatins, (3) mental ategry IIIB, and (4) nt eligible fr the military labr market (mental ategry IV and belw). The results f these mdels are then used t estimate the size f nulear qualified markets f 17 t 21 year ld high shl graduates at the unty level. Great variatin in nulear qualifiatin by gender and rae-ethni grup is apparent in these estimates with white males qualifying at rates substantially abve all ther grups. Reginal variatin reflets these demgraphi harateristis. 14. SUBJET TERMS Navy nulear upatins, gender rae-ethni grup differenes, mental grup ategries, reruiting markets. 15. NUMBER F PAGES PRIE DE 17. SEURITY LASSIFIATIN F REPRT 18. SEURITY LASSIFIATIN F THIS PAGE 19. SEURITY LASSIFIATIN F ABSTRAT 20. LIMITATIN F ABSTRAT Unlassified Unlassified Unlassified Unlimited NSN Standard Frm 298 (Rev 2-89) Presribed by ANSI Std

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6 NAVY NULEAR RERUITING MARKETS Rae-Ethni/Gender Qualifiatin Rates By Gerge W. Thmas and Kathryn M. Kher Naval Pstgraduate Shl Mnterey, A (408) Deember 1993 The pinins expressed are slely thse f the authrs.

7 ABSTRAT This reprt presents explratry mdel-building fr identifying and analyzing the reruiting market fr Navy upatins in the highly tehnial nulear field. Variatin in eligibility fr nulear upatins by rae and gender subsets f the reruiting market is examined. Lgisti regressin mdels fr rae/gender market segments estimate the relatinship f sienmi fatrs and gegraphi latin t fur lassifiatins f mental qualifiatins: (1) high quality (mental ategry IIIA and abve) eligible fr Navy nulear upatins, (2) high quality nt eligible fr these highly tehnial upatins, (3) mental ategry IIIB, and (4) nt eligible fr the military labr market (mental ategry IV and belw). The results f these mdels are then used t estimate the size f nulear qualified markets f 17 t 21 year ld high shl graduates at the unty level. Great variatin in nulear qualifiatin by gender and raeethni grup is apparent in these estimates with while males qualifying at rates substantially abve all ther grups. Reginal variatin reflets these demgraphi harateristis. n

8 TABLE F NTENTS Page Abstrat ii Table f ntents iii List f Tables iv List f Figures v I. INTRDUTIN 1 II. UPATINAL HANNELING AND ASVAB SRES 4 A. ASVAB and AFQT 4 B. ategries f Tehnial upatins 5. The Navy Nulear Field Prgram 6 III. THE NLSY DATA 8 IV. NAVY NULEAR MARKET ESTIMATING MDELS 10 A. Theretial Mdel 1 B. Seletin f Explanatry Variables 10. Empirial Mdels 11 V. APPLIATIN F NAVY NULEAR MDELS T NATINAL MARKETS. 14 A. unty Level Estimating Predure 14 B. Ppulatin Data 15 VI. ESTIMATES F MENTAL GRUP/NULEAR QUALIFIATIN RATES.. 18 A. Natinal Estimates by Gender and Rae/Ethni Grup. IS B. Reginal Estimates 22. Underlying ASVAB Subtest Sre Differentials VIII. MENTAL GRUP/NULEAR RATING ELIGIBILITY FR 1990 AESSINS 27 A. Qualifiatin at Aessin by Gender and Rae/Ethni Grup 27 B. Qualifiatin by Regin 32. Underlying Enlistee ASVAB Subtest Sres 37 IX. NLUSINS 39 A. Summary 39» B. Impliatins and Remmendatins 40 REFERENES 43 APPENDIX A REGINAL NULEAR RATING/MENTAL GRUP QUALIFIATIN DISTRIBUTINS 45 APPENDIX B SHRINKAGE F 199 ALL-SERVIE AND NAVY AESSINS 53 DISTRIBUTIN LIST

9 LIST F TABLES Page Table 1 Table 2 Table 3 Table 4 Table 5 Table 6 ASVAB Test Frmat and Skill Areas 4 Distributin f the NLSY Sample by Gender and Rae/Ethni Grup 9 Standardized Lgisti Regressin effiients fr Navy Nulear Qualifiatin by Gender and Rae/ Ethni Grup, NLSY High Shl Graduates Age Estimated upatinal Qualifiatin High Shl Graduates Age 17 t 21 by Gender and Rae- Ethni Grup 19 Nulear Rating/Mental Grup Qualifiatin 1990 High Shl Graduate All-Servie Aessins Age 17 t 21 By Gender and Rae/ Ethni Grup 28 Nulear Rating/Mental Grup Qualifiatin 1990 High Shl Graduate Navy Aessins Age 17 t 21 By Gender and Rae/Ethni Grup 29 IV

10 LIST F FIGURES Page Figure 1 Shrinkage f Hypthetial Pl f 20 Millin High Shl Graduates Age 17 t 21 By Gender 20 Figure 2 Estimated Nulear Rating/Mental Grup Qualifiatin, High Shl Graduates Age 17 t 21 By Rae and Gender 21 Figure 3 Estimated Nulear Rating/Mental Grup Qualifiatin, ivilian Male High Shl Graduates Age 17 t 21 fr Seleted unties 23 Figure 4 Estimated Nulear Rating/Mental Grup Qualifiatin, ivilian Female High Shl Graduates Age 17 t 21 fr Seleted unties 24 Figure 5 Perent Nulear Rating/Mental Grup Qualifiatin, 1990 High Shl Graduate All-Servie Aessins Age 17 t 21 by Gender 30 Figure 6 Perent Nulear Rating/Mental Grup Qualifiatin, 1990 High Shl Graduate Navy Aessins Age 17 t 21 by Gender 31 Figure 7 Nulear Rating/Mental Grup Qualifiatin by Rae and Gender, 1990 All-Servie Aessins, High Shl Graduates Age 17 t Figure 8 Nulear Rating/Mental Grup Qualifiatin by Rae and Gender, 1990 Navy Aessins, High Shl Graduates Age 17 t Figure 9 Nulear Rating/Mental Grup Qualifiatin, 1990 Male High Shl Graduate All-Servie Aessins Age 17 t 21 fr Seleted unties 35 Figure 10 Nulear Rating/Mental Grup Qualifiatin, 1990 Male High Shl Graduate Navy Aessins Age 17 t 21 fr Seleted unties 36

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12 I. INTRDUTIN Reruiting suess is dependent predminantly n the nature f the ivilian labr market, the level f military requirements, the quality mix f requirements, the availability f reruiting resures, and mpetitin frm lleges and ivilian emplyers. As the U.S. dmesti enmy imprves, a majr issue fr the military is whether it will be able t attrat enugh peple wh are able t handle mplex weapn systems. The rivalry between ivilian and military emplyers will beme even mre intense. urrent ppulatin freasts indiate that the wrkfre entry-age hrt will deline until the mid 1990s. The level f general intelletual ahievement f high shl graduates has been predited t deline during this same perid (Kher and Thmas 1991). The ffie f Tehnlgy Assessment (1990) estimates that 20% t 30% f the wrkfre is already defiient in the basi skills required t perfrm effetively in the wrkplae. The reruiting envirnment will ntinue t hange radially during the remainder f the 1990s. The desired quality mix f reruits will be revised as the military emplys a smaller, smarter, mre resilient fre t math sphistiated weapn systems. The demand fr high quality reruits may even inrease while ttal requirements are dereasing. At the same time, natinal budget defiit redutin measures will substantially redue reruiting resures available t the military. In additin, interest in the military has delined sine the end f the ld war, and will prbably ntinue t deline as the missin f the U.S. military remains unlear. If the dminant missin bemes interventin in reginal nflits, general interest in the military may deline even further. Effiient reruiting fr highly speialized military upatins requires identifiatin f 1

13 the qualified military available and interested market fr thse upatins. The target market fr military reruits generally is defined n the basis f age (17 t 21 years ld), high shl graduatin, and physial, mral, and mental qualifiatin. Mental qualifiatin is usually indiated by a suffiiently high sre n the Armed Fres Qualifiatin Test (AFQT), an arithmeti mpsite f several sublists f the Armed Servies Vatinal Aptitude Battery (ASVAB). A distint subset f the general qualified military available (QMA) market is eligible fr highly tehnial military upatins. Qualifiatin fr tehnial upatinal fields, inluding the nulear field prgram, is based primarily n a andidate's sre n speifi subsets f the ASVAB. After passing additinal qualifiatin sreens, sme QMA reruits are eligible fr the lengthy and expensive training that leads t the mre tehnial and mplex military upatins. Nulear field rating als requires a minimum sre n the Nulear Field Qualifiatin Test (NFQT), as well as eduatinal bakgrund qualifiatin. The purpse f this reprt is t develp prttype mdels fr identifying and analyzing the reruiting market fr the highly tehnial Navy nulear upatins. These enmetri reruit qualifiatin mdels are then used in determining what prtin f the yuth labr market in a lal gegraphi regin will qualify fr these upatins. Reruiter management deisins suh as reruiter allatin and gal setting are dependent upn apprpriate measures f lal reruiting markets. By prviding imprved market measures, these mdels an be used as a basis fr mre effiient use f reruiting resures. This study develps statistial mdels fr the ahievement f the minimum test sre required fr entry int training fr highly tehnial Navy nulear ratings. Sidemgraphi harateristis suh as age, gender, rae/ethni grup, eduatinal bakgrund, enmi status,

14 and family bakgrund have been shwn t influene an individual's perfrmane n the ASVAB (Grman and Thmas 1993). These harateristis are utilized as explanatry variables in mdeling eligibility fr nulear ratings. Beause ur ultimate gal is the appliatin f the results t lal labr markets, the explanatry variables are restrited t thse fr whih measures are available natinwide at the lal level (unty and/r zipde). As updated freasts f market segment ppulatin size and measures f lal level explanatry variables beme available ver time, hanges in qualifiatin fr these upatins an be predited by unty. Estimates develped frm ur mdels an als be mpared with histrial unty level Navy nulear enlistments.

15 II. UPATINAL HANNELING AND ASVAB SRES A. ASVAB and AFQT All fur military servies use the Armed Servies Vatinal Aptitude Battery, r ASVAB, t sreen appliants (U.S. Department f Defense 1992). As shwn in Table 1, the ASVAB ntains ten subtests designed t measure the ability f reruits in separate general skill areas. The Armed Fres Qualifiatin Test, r AFQT, is used by all the servies as their primary sreening devie fr mental qualifiatin fr entrane int the military. AFQT is a speifi aptitude mpsite based n three ASVAB subtests: arithmeti reasning wrd knwledge paragraph mprehensin. TABLE 1 ASVAB TEST FRMAT AND SKILL AREAS SUBTEST Minutes/ Questins Desriptin f Subtest ntent 1. General Siene (GS) 2. Arithmeti Reasning (AR) 3. Wrd Knwledge (WK) 4. Paragraph mprehensin (P) 5. Numerial peratins (N) 6. ding Speed (S) 7. Aut and Shp Inf. (AS) 8. Mathematis Knwledge (MK) 9. Mehanial mprehensin (M) 10. Eletrnis Infrmatin (EI) 11 / / / / 15 3 / 50 7 / / / / 25 9 / 20 Physis and bilgy. Arithmeti wrd prblems. Meaning f wrds. btain written infrm. Arithmeti speed test. Speed test. Knwledge abut ars. High shl mathematis. Mehanial & physial priniples. Eletriity & eletrnis. Althugh the Air Fre, Army, Marine rps and Navy use the AFQT fr their general reruit sreening, separate ASVAB subtest r subtest mpsite sres are used t filter reruits int training pipelines fr varius upatinal fields. Speifi subfuntinal areas eah require 4

16 a speifi set f minimum sres. Hwever, the branhes d nt use unifrm mpsites t sreen reruits fr similar training. ASVAB mpsites with the same aggregate lassifiatin may be mpsed f different grups f subtests fr different branhes; fr example, the mehanial mpsites fr Navy and Air Fre are nstruted in different ways (Eitelberg 1988, p. 71). B. ategries f Tehnial upatins The servies d nt use unifrm grupings f military upatins nr d they use unifrm ASVAB mpsites fr reruit sreening and assignment. At present, the Navy uses 11 ASVAB lassifiatin mpsites: GT (General Tehnial), MEH (Mehanial), ELE (Eletrnis), LER (lerial), AM (Aviatin Strutural Mehani), BE/E (Basi Eletriity/ Eletrnis), BT/EN/MM (Biler Tehniian/Engineman/Mahinists Mate), MR (Mahinery Repairman), SUB (Submarine), T (mmuniatins Tehniian) and HM (Hspital man). The reruiter enurages the appliant t sign up fr the field t whih he r she is best suited, given the surplus r shrtage f persnnel fr different upatinal speialties. The Navy is the nly servie that differentiates upatins int the three general ategries: semitehnial, tehnial, and highly tehnial. Data prvided by the Defense Manpwer Data enter indiate that abut ne third f all Navy enlisted persnnel are assigned t the least tehnial jb ategry (semitehnial). This ategry inludes batswains mate, biler tehniian, ship's servieman, and pstal lerk. At the ther end f the tehnial upatins are the highly tehnial Navy jbs. Examples inlude snar tehniian, data systems tehniian, missile tehniian, air traffi ntrller, and ryptlgi tehniian, as well as thse upatins in the nulear field prgram. Apprximately 20 perent f all enlisted persnnel

17 are assigned t jbs f this kind.. The Navy Nulear Field Prgram The Navy Nulear Field Prgram was designed t reruit, assign, and train enlisted persnnel t serve as prpulsin plant peratrs n either nulear submarines r nulear surfae warships. Beause highly trained and qualified individuals are required t staff the nulear pwered fleets, sreening, seletin, and training are rigrus. Eligibility riteria fr persnnel perating nulear engineering plants have been develped jintly by the Navy and the Department f Energy (U.S. Department f the Navy 1992). mpletin f the Nulear Field Prgram leads t qualifiatin as a mehanial peratr, eletrial peratr, r reatr peratr. These three peratr ratings are drawn frm the Mahinist's Mate (MM), Eletriian's Mate (EM), and Eletrnis Tehniian (ET) ratings, respetively. Nulear peratrs are expeted t serve ultimately as senir enlisted nulear prpulsin plant wath supervisrs. All three peratr psitins require an understanding f all aspets f reatr plant design and thus must be rss-trained. In rder t be nsidered fr the Navy nulear field, an enlistee must be between 17 and 25 years f age, must nt have a ttal ative military servie exeeding fur years at time f enlistment, and must meet the Navy's physial and mral standards. In additin, andidates must be high shl diplma graduates wh have mpleted ne year f high shl r llege level algebra with a grade f at least "". There are additinal ASVAB test sre requirements, as well as a minimum ahievement level n an additinal test, the Nulear Field Qualifiatin Test (NFQT). urrently, the nulear field is lsed t wmen. The required ASVAB sres inlude:

18 VE + AR = 113 with NFQT = 49 r higher, r VE + AR = 108 t 112 with NFQT = 55 r higher. These additinal minimum ASVAB sres must als be ahieved: 1. MK + AS = AR + 2MK + GS = MK + EI + GS = MK + El + GS + AR = 218, as well as: VE + NFQT = J 10 r higher. ur apprah t estimating the size f the Navy nulear field reruiting market is based n the results f a natinal sample survey f ivilian yuth that inludes respndents' sres n the ASVAB. This survey, hwever, des nt inlude a natinal sample f sres n the NFQT. nsequently, the riteria fr Navy Nulear Field Prgram eligibility fr this reprt have been restrited t the minimum ASVAB requirement, VE + AR = 108 r higher, as well as the abve fur additinal mpsite sres.

19 III. THE NLSY DATA Frm 1979 t 1987 the Natinal Lngitudinal Survey f Yuth (NLSY) lleted data natinwide n eduatin, training, labr fre experiene, finanial status, and ther harateristis fr a statistially representative sample f the U.S. yuth ppulatin (enter fr Human Resures Researh 1991). In 1980, spnsred by the Department f Defense, the Armed Servies Aptitude Battery (ASVAB) was administered t bth the ivilian and military yuth samples in the NLSY. The Department f Defense used these test results t develp urrent nrms fr the ASVAB (U.S. Department f Defense 1982). The NLSY sample nsists f three grups: (1) a rss-setin natinal sample f Amerian yuth, aged 14 t 21 as f January 1, 1979 in their prper ppulatin prprtins; (2) a sample designed t ver represent ivilian Hispanis, blaks, and enmially disadvantaged whites, and (3) a military sample designed t represent the ppulatin aged as f January 1, 1979 wh were serving in the military as f September 30, f the riginal 12,686 NLSY respndents, 11,914 tk the ASVAB in f this grup, 5,969 respndents were male and 5,945 respndents were female. The military sample tk the ASVAB test a send time, aunting fr 823 males and 457 females. (They had taken the ASVAB fr the first time n entering military servie). Table 2 shws the distributin f the NLSY sample by rae/ethni grup and gender. Studies f test perfrmane n the AFQT and the develpment f estimating equatins fr reginal QMA has been pineered in a researh prgram at The Naval Pstgraduate Shl: Sinkiewiz (1990), Petersn (1990), Snyder (1990), Wds (1990), Mreau (1991), Uslar (1991), Biakaiz (1992), and Shultz (1992). Thmas and Grman (1991) used a mbinatin 8

20 TABLE 2 DISTRIBUTIN F THE NLSY SAMPLE BY GENDER AND RAE/ETHNI GRUP rss-setin Sample 6,111 Supplemental Sample 5,295 Military Sample 1,280 TTAL 12,686 Males White 2,439 Blak 346 Hisp. 218 Males Pr White 742 Blak 1,105 Hisp. 729 Males White 609 Blak 162 Hisp. 53 Males White 3,790 Blak 1,613 Hisp. 1,000 Females White 2,477 Blak 405 Hisp. 226 Females Pr White 901 Blak 1,067 Hisp. 751 Females White 342 Blak 89 Hisp. 25 Females White 3,720 Blak 1,561 Hisp. 1,002 Sure: NLSY Handbk 1991 f AFQT sres and sidemgraphi variables t predit bth qualified military available fr enlistment, and the size f lal ivilian labr markets likely t jin the military fr 1990 t the year 2010.

21 IV. NAVY NULEAR MARKET ESTIMATING MDELS A. Theretial Mdel The rdered multinmial lgit mdel was used t estimate nulear rating/mental grup distributins (Maddala 1983). The lgit funtin g(p) = lg ^p is the inverse f the umulative lgisti distributin, whih is given by F(X) =, 1- _ x X I Suppse Yj an take n rdered values 1 m where m is an integer greater than 1. P ij5 the prbability that the ith individual has made hie j given the vetr f persnal harateristis X;, is ' F(a, + b'xj) frj = l Pij - P(YH X,) = < F(aj + b'xj) - V{a ia + b'xj) fr 1< j <m 1-F(a m., +b'xj) frj=m. B. Seletin f Explanatry Variables Seletin f explanatry variables was based n the jint riteria f (i) behaviral sundness, (ii) inlusin in the NLSY data set and (iii) the availability f similar unty level variables n a natinwide basis. Sienmi and reginal bakgrund harateristis influene the eligibility f the respndents fr the prime market. Researh by Bk and Mre (1984) has shwn that parents' eduatinal attainment, and espeially mther's eduatin, influenes individual perfrmane n the AFQT. Parents' eduatin strngly affets ertain ASVAB subtests suh as Wrd Knwledge, Mathematis Knwledge, General Siene, 10

22 Arithmeti Reasning, and Paragraph mprehensin, but the effet n ther subtests is mre limited. A variable alled "parents eduatin" was nstruted. If bth parents' eduatin was available, the average was used. If ne parent's eduatin was missing, the eduatinal attainment f the ther was used in rder t maintain sample size. Higher parental eduatinal level was expeted t inrease the prbability f nulear qualifiatin. The sienmi status f a respndent als was aunted fr by a prxy variable indiating whether r nt the individual's family was living in pverty. This pverty status variable was expeted t have a negative influene n eligibility fr the prime market and hene als fr the nulear high teh ratings. As shwn in the previus setin, when the ntinental states are gruped int regins identified as Nrtheast, Suth, Nrth entral and West, variatin in the distributin f eligibility fr the nulear ategries thrughut the fur regins is apparent. Eligibility was lwest in the Suth. In rder t apture this effet, a dihtmus variable ("Suth") was used t indiate whether r nt an individual resided in the Suth ensus regin.. Empirial Mdels The Navy nulear qualifiatin mdel estimates the likelihd f an individual being in eah f fur mental grups (1) Nulear, (2) High Quality/Nt Nulear, (3) mental ategry IIIB, and (4) mental ategry IV r belw, nt eligible fr the military labr market. Separate mdels were estimated by gender and rae/ethni grup. A priri, it was expeted that being blak r Hispani wuld derease the likelihd f being eligible fr tehnial military upatins fr bth males and females. Furthermre, pverty status (0=nt pverty, 1 =pverty) and the residene in the Suth ensus regin were expeted t derease the 11

23 prbability f lassifiatin in the higher mental grups. Table 3 presents the standardized estimated multinmial lgit effiients by gender and rae fr mental ategry as a funtin f pverty status, parents' eduatin and regin. A negative effiient implies dereasing nulear qualifiatin assiated with an inrease in an explanatry variable. Fr all gender/rae ethni grup mdels exept that fr Hispani wmen, living in pverty had a signifiant negative impat n nulear/mental grup qualifiatin (0.01 level fr white males, white females, blak males, blak females, and Hispani males; 0.05 level fr Hispani females). Residene in the Suth ensus regin was als negatively signifiant fr white men (0.10 level), white wmen (0.05) and fr blak men (0.05). As expeted, the level f parents' eduatin was psitively and strngly assiated with mental qualifiatin fr all TABLE 3 STANDARDIZED LGISTI REGRESSIN EFFIIENTS FR NAVY NULEAR QUALIFIATIN BY GENDER AND RAE/ETHNI GRUP, NLSY HIGH SHL GRADUATES AGE Variable WM WF BM BF HM HF Sample size Pverty status (living in -.086*** -.074*** -.186*** -.161*** -.146**.005 pverty=l ensus regin (Suth=l) -.048* -.065** -.125** Parents' eduatin (highest year, either parent).353***.420***.324***.383***.267***.324*** Mdel hisquare *** *** 69.62*** 83.79*** 25.34*** 26.41*** * p<.10 ** p<.05 *** p<.01 Nte: WM indiates white male; WF indiates white female; BM indiates blak male; BF indiates blak female; HM indiates Hispani male; HF indiates Hispani female. 12

24 mdels (0.01 level). The mdel hi-square (differene between full mdel and interepts nly) was signifiant (0.01 level) fr all mdels. 13

25 V. APPLIATIN F NAVY NULEAR MDELS T NATINAL MARKETS A. unty Level Estimating Predure The lgisti regressin equatins derived in setin IV were used t alulate the prbabilities f a unty's high shl graduate ppulatin being lassified int eah mental grup fr eah gender/rae-ethni grup segment f a unty's ppulatin using the values fr pverty and parent's eduatin 1 fr eah market segment in the unty. Fr example, the perent f blaks in pverty in unty K, average parents' eduatin fr blaks in unty K, and Suth/nt Suth latin fr unty K were substituted in the lgit equatin t yield prbabilities fr mental grup ategry membership fr blak males in unty K. (Prbabilities sum t ne arss mental grups fr blak males in unty K). The mdel results were then mbined with unty-level ppulatin estimates fr eah gender/rae-ethni grup segment t estimate the number f high shl graduates qualifying fr eah mental ategry by gender, rae, and gegraphi regin in a partiular year. The number f high shl graduates f a gender/rae-ethni grup residing in a unty was multiplied by the prbability f belnging t a partiular mental grup ategry within a gender/rae-ethni grup segment: AT jjk = (HSG^PAT^ j unty jk), where AT ijk is the number f individuals in mental grup/nulear qualifiatin ategry i in eah market segment j (gender/rae-ethni grup) in unty k. HSG jk is the number f high shl graduates in market segment j in unty k, and PAT is the prbability f an ijl 1 The unty value f eduatinal attainment f adults 25 years r lder was used as a prxy fr parent's eduatin fr eah rae-ethni ategry. 14

26 individual being lassified in AT i given the sienmi harateristis f market segment j in unty k. Thus, the number f blak male high shl graduates in unty K in 1990 was multiplied by the prbability f a blak male with the average blak male sienmi harateristis in unty K sring in a partiular mental grup t yield an estimate f the number f blak males wh wuld meet this riterin in unty K in Estimates fr eah mental grup/nulear qualifiatin ategry were then summed arss a unty t yield ttal high shl graduates fr the gender/rae-ethni grup segment. B. Ppulatin Data Wds & Ple Enmetris, In. (W&P) 2 prvided estimates f high shl graduates between 17 and 21 wh were nt in the military fr eah unty in the ntinental United States fr Six estimates fr eah unty were inluded, ne fr eah raeethni grup (white, blak, Hispani) within gender grups. (Estimates f high shl graduate gender/rae ppulatin segments frm ther sures an be used in njuntin with ur nulear rating/mental grup estimating equatins). The ppulatin estimates develped by W&P are fr high shl graduates (bth diplma graduates and GED hlders). This ppulatin is apprpriate fr this study beause, in reent years, the military servies have limited reruiting almst exlusively t high shl graduates. Suh a restritin, hwever, des give rise t sme nfusin when these estimates 2 The W&P ppulatin estimates used fr this reprt are nt based n the 199 ensus results. We remmend that updated ppulatin and sidemgraphi estimates be used t update the speifi unty level market estimates. Hwever, suh updates wuld have n effet n the rae/gender relatinships in ur estimating mdels. 15

27 are mpared with alternative data sures that inlude all residents, regardless f degree status. Many 17 t 21 year lds are nt high shl graduates - sme are enrlled in high shl and will eventually reeive a diplma; thers will eventually btain a GED; and still thers will nt ahieve either a diplma r a ertifiate. W&P estimates fr 17 and 18 year lds are muh smaller than thse based n ttal residents, sine a large prprtin f ttal residents in this age grup are high shl students wh have nt yet graduated. This will tend t understate market size. Anther area in whih the versin f W&P estimates used fr this reprt differ frm ther estimates used fr estimating reruit market size is the inlusin f llege students in the W&P freasts. While reruiting resures tend t be direted at high shl senirs, the prime market age grup nsidered here inludes thse up t 21 years ld, many f whm are full-time r part-time llege students. This will tend t verstate market size. The starting pint fr the W&P freasts fr ttal white, blak and ther ppulatin are the urrent Ppulatin Reprts Series P-25 N Ttal Hispani ppulatin estimates are based n PR Series P-25, N The freast fr ttal Hispani ppulatin assumes that unties with large Hispani ppulatins in the early 1980s will experiene the largest grwth in Hispani ppulatin thrugh The ensus Bureau defines Hispani ppulatin as persns f Spanish rigin, regardless f rae and W&P take the same apprah. We have adjusted the W&P freasts t prevent duble unting by treating Hispanis as a separate, mutually exlusive rae/ethni grup ategry. ur white ategry inludes all nnblaks and nnhispanis. unty residential ppulatin freasts are derived frm W&P's prprietary 16

28 freasting mdels. This apprah is largely enmetri, rather than stritly an extraplatin f demgraphi trends. The mdels have three mpnents: (1) unty emplyment by industry freasts based n a marenmi mdel f ttal U.S. emplyment by industry, a reginal exprt-base mdel fr 183 "Enmi Areas," and unty exprt-base emplyment mdels. (2) Initial estimates f ttal unty ppulatin based n hanges in emplyment derived frm (1) abve. (3) Estimates f unty ppulatin by age, gender, and rae based n a hrt-survival mdel and a net migratin mdel that is emplyment driven, rather than an extraplatin f histrial migratin patterns. Based n the W&P freasts, the 17 t 21 year ld ppulatin is expeted t deline during the 1990s and t begin t inrease early in the next entury. The rae/ethni grup mpsitin f the yuth ppulatin is antiipated t reflet a larger prprtin f blaks and Hispanis and thus a smaller prprtin f whites. Eduatinal attainment is expeted t fall thrugh 2010 with a slight deline in the prprtin f high shl graduates amng 17 t 21 year lds. Largely due t the fat that the W&P unty freasting mdel is based n emplyment driven migratin rather than n histrial migratin patterns, the reginal distributin f the freast yuth ppulatin differs smewhat frm the ensus prjetins. W&P freasts greater ppulatin grwth fr the West, Midwest and Nrtheast, and smewhat slwer grwth fr the Suth. 17

29 VI. ESTIMATES F MENTAL GRUP/NULEAR QUALIFIATIN RATES A. Natinal Estimates by Gender and Rae/Ethni Grup Table 4 shws the gender/rae-ethni grup distributin f nulear qualifiatin estimated fr ne view f the pattern f qualifiatin rates fr the U.S. as a whle may be gained frm the "shrinkage" f a pl f qualified individuals as the qualifiatin riteria beme mre stringent. Figure 1 traes a hypthetial grup f 20 millin high shl graduates 17 t 21 years ld, frm the qualifiatin riteria fr membership in mental ategry IV and belw thrugh eligibility fr Navy nulear ratings. Rae-ethni grup prprtins fr these 20 millin reflet the rae-ethni grup distributin f the ivilian ppulatin f year ld high shl graduates. Men and wmen shw similar qualifiatin patterns until the nulear qualifiatin stage is reahed. ut f 10 millin males and 10 millin females, there wuld be 7.3 millin men and 7. 1 millin wmen wh qualify as IIIB and abve. The IIIA and abve grup wuld have 800 thusand mre men than wmen. Fr the nulear ategry, 2.6 millin ut f 10 millin men qualify, but nly 300 thusand wmen frm an riginal grup f the same size qualify. That is, ver eight times as many male high shl graduates wuld qualify fr suh highly tehnial ratings as wuld wmen. Figure 1 masks the disparity in qualifiatin rates amng rae-ethni grups. Figure 2 illustrates the distributin f nulear qualifiatin rates and mental ategries within gender/raeethni grup segments using W&P ppulatin estimates fr It is striking that white males qualify fr the highly tehnial nulear ratings at three times the rate f the next largest grup, Hispani males. White females qualify at less than half the rate f Hispani males, and blak males at less than a third the rate f white females. Blak and Hispani wmen have extremely 18

30 TABLE ESTIMATED UPATINAL QUALIFIATIN HIGH SHL GRADUATES AGE 17 T 21 BY GENDER AND RAE-ETHNI GRUP (perent) Nulear High Quality/ Qualified Nt-Nulear IIIB Belw IIIB Ttal White male (n=3,587,232) White female (n=4,252,084) Blak male (n=476,423) Blak female (n=726,924) Hispani male (n=386,468) Hispani female (n=414,645) All males (n=4,450,121) All females (n=5,393,653) Ttal (n=9, 843,776)

31 "U t :e M H I s *. T_" D) L < -- D T7 jl: 2 >% X H ~ X H^ 13 D" k </i -1 (0 (0 E M D LL " L z > (3 " " ^ ^ D) > "-* 0).Q (0 D (0 XJ ^ ih 0) (0 in < X)» '" t* M ^t M 20

32 IBM +-» w J) (0 E 0) LL " (0 Q. </) " - V t- ^ " 3 )^ i_ Q '5 < q: i- _ 2 D) "P = «E - UU E t _a> a E Q) LL 1 $s as Q. D a) x_ " _ t/) JD 1 5 -f-» D) D _0 " i _ D - T3 0) *^ "(0 T 4) U s WD fa 21

33 lw qualifiatin rates, less than ne perent. At the lwer end f the mental grup distributin, white men and wmen fail t qualify abve ategry IV at abut the same rates (18.9% and 19.7%, respetively). Blak males and females are muh less likely t sre abve ategry IV, with 70.0% and 70.2%, respetively, failing t meet this riterin and, nsequently, ineligible fr military servie. Hispani yuth fall between the tw extremes, with 43.4% f men and 52.8% f wmen in this lwest ategry. B. Reginal Estimates Variatin in mental grup qualifiatin and nulear rating by ensus regin is desribed in the tables in Appendix A. The East and Nrth entral ensus regins display very similar rates f nulear qualifiatin while the Suth has a slightly lwer perent eligible fr nulear upatins and the West has a slightly higher perent. These distributins within regins are similar fr male and female high shl graduates. Appendix A identifies the states in eah ensus regin. It is diffiult t appreiate the differenes in upatinal qualifiatin amng gegraphi areas frm suh a brad aggregate as ensus regin. T demnstrate lal market variatin in upatinal qualifiatin, we shw the distributins f nulear rating and mental grup qualifiatin fr men and wmen ivilian high shl graduates between 17 and 21 years f age fr three unties in Figures 3 and 4 3. Ls Angeles unty, with 22 perent f males nulear 3 As shwn in Figure 1, the natinal male ivilian nulear qualifiatin rate is abut 26%. 22

34 t sl +- St Z3 D) < i.e <» - v-.2>p =5 X lj- T~ "D = t > V % "f-» n ^^ " r a. _0 U 3 L. a> < ^ D) *+-» T3 D h^ v_ (0 13 r 13 m 13 u p DX) LU 23

35 v^ H= HZ *- Q. ) =3 < 2 <s> _ t <D S 2 g S Q.E t ). " 5 (D *-* zz.e LU - D) j_ < _Q) D) < < (3 Li. Q % * *-* "^ 75 D Q_ r 0> 4-* 15 P +- < fe S D) > IWIII-I D i_ 13 u it: D r m Z3 24

36 qualified, falls between Fultn unty (16 perent) and Jhnsn unty (40 perent) 4. The unty distributins fr wmen shw nly 2 perent f female high shl graduates t be nulear qualified in Fultn and Ls Angeles unties, whereas 6 perent are qualified fr nulear upatins in Jhnsn unty 5.. Underlying ASVAB Subtest Sre Differentials A pattern f differential ASVAB subtest and subtest mpsite sres aunts fr these estimated disparities in nulear qualifiatin by gender and rae-ethni grup. When ASVAB subtest sres fr men and wmen ivilian high shl graduates ages 17 t 21 are mpared, within eah rae-ethni grup, men sred signifiantly higher than wmen n all mpsites used t hannel enlistees int highly tehnial jbs. These mpsites are: (i) VE+AR, where VE=(P+WK), saled t the mean fr individual subtests; (ii) MK + AS; (iii) AR+2MK+GS; (iv) MK+EI + GS; and (v) MK+EI + GS + AR. f the subtests in these sreens, wmen sred signifiantly lwer n AR, AS, GS and EI, while their sres n MK and VE were nt signifiantly different frm thse f men. Thse subtests n whih wmen's sres are signifiantly higher than men's (P, N, and S), r where there is n signifiant differene (VE, MK, and WK), have very limited (MK and VE), r n (N and S) influene n mpsites used fr nulear sreenings (based n Bnferrni t-tests fr all six gender/rae-ethni grups, p<0.05). The arithmeti reasning (AR) subtest has by far the greatest differential effet n qualifiatin by gender, fllwed t a muh mre limited extent by eletrnis 4 If highly tehnial enlistees are a target market, then reruiting resures shuld parallel these markets, after aunting fr size and ther market differenes. 5 The natinal female ivilian nulear qualifiatins rate is abut 3%, as shwn in Figure 1. 25

37 infrmatin (EI) and aut shp infrmatin (AS). When rae-ethni grup sres within gender grups are mpared (based n the same Bnferrni t-tests), white ivilian high shl graduates between 17 and 21 years ld have signifiantly higher sres than Hispanis r blaks n all subtests (and mpsites) fr men and wmen. High shl graduate Hispanis, in turn, have signifiantly higher sres than blaks n all subtests (and mpsites) fr men and all but fur subtests (MK, GS, EI, and M) fr wmen. The arithmeti reasning (AR) subtest, again, has the mst influential rle in nulear qualifiatin differentials by rae-ethni grup. 26

38 VIII. MENTAL GRUP/NULEAR RATING ELIGIBILITY FR 1990 AESSINS The pl f ivilian yuth qualified fr miliary servie disussed in Setin VII prvides a base ppulatin fr reruiting purpses. Interest in jining the military, physial and mral qualifiatin standards, alternative ivilian labr market and eduatinal pprtunities, and reruiting praties are all influential in determining wh atually will enlist in the armed servies. High quality reruits are needed t fill the Navy's highly tehnial jbs but they are als the subset f the yuth ppulatin that shls and ivilian emplyers are anxius t attrat. A mparisn f the estimated natinal ivilian distributin f nulear rating and mental grup qualifiatin with atual aessins fr 1990 yields a piture f a very high quality hrt entering the military. A great diversity by gender and rae is readily apparent in the qualifiatin f atual aessins fr highly tehnial upatins suh as thse in the Navy nulear prgram. A. Qualifiatin at Aessin by Gender and Rae/Ethni Grup Tables 5 and 6 shw nulear rating/mental grup qualifiatin rates fr 1990 atual aessins. The "shrinkage" f the pl f all-servie enlistees as qualifiatin riteria beme mre stringent as an be seen in Figure 5. There was a muh higher prprtin f nulear qualified amng men (34 perent fr all-servie aessins) than amng wmen (20 perent fr all-servie aessins). Navy aessins (Figure 6) fllwed the same pattern, with 33 perent f male enlistees and 18 perent f female enlistees eligible fr nulear ratings. Figure 1 indiated that nly 26 perent f male and 3 perent f female high shl graduates in the ivilian ppulatin wuld qualify n the same basis. 27

39 TABLE 5 NULEAR RATING/MENTAL GRUP QUALIFIATIN 1990 HIGH SHL GRADUATE ALL-SERVIE AESSINS AGE 17 T 21 BY GENDER AND RAE/ ETHNI GRUP (Perent) Nulear High Qual ity/ Belw Qualified Nt Nul ear IIIB IIIB Ttal White Male (n=119,719) White Female (n=15,040) Blak Male (n=30,748) Blak Female (n=6,280) Hispani Male (n=10,844) Hispani Female (n=l,344) All Males (n=161,311) All Females (n=22,664) All Aessins (n=183,975)

40 TABLE 6 NULEAR RATING/MENTAL GRUP QUALIFIATIN 1990 HIGH SHL GRADUATE NAVY AESSINS AGE BY GENDER AND RAE/ETHNI GRUP (Perent 17 T 21 Nulear High Quality/ Qualified Nt Nulear IIIB Belw IIIB Ttal White Male (n=37,520) White Female (n=3,968) Blak Male (n=10,351) Blak Female (n=l,605) Hispani Male (n=4,568) Hispani Female (n=585) All Males (n=52,439) All Females (n=6,158) All Navy Aessins (n=58,590)

41 ; ; : 1 M.2 < itz w -8 a) " ^» H MM D T t 0) F li. D z > JQ D In J= D " h5 *- = ta S M > M t r. II z ^ " ^ (0 1 DQ ": T Q- [? X < II T- z % t (0 30 <D z

42 M ««-» r^ +-* 05 D) mmmtm < 05 D Q. ' 13 i < 05 v* g T3» r -Z > JQ *U f- D) " D 05 v_ 05 aaa 13 +-* sz ) * d : n 0> ) > 03 JQ <~ II T3 </>" Q) (0 E <D IJvi m" in II (0 0) <0 I fa 31 <D z

43 The distributin f mental grup qualifiatin within rae/ethni grup and gender ategries fr 1990 aessins (Figure 7 [All-Servie] and Figure 8 [Navy] varies substantially frm that f the gender distributin. The prprtins f 1990 all-servie reruits qualifying fr nulear upatins amng while males (41.0 perent) and white females (26.3 perent) were greater than thse amng Hispani men and wmen (22. 1 perent and 12.5 perent, respetively) whih, in turn, were greater than thse amng blak males (10.3 perent) and blak wmen (6.2 perent). Navy enlistees were similarly distributed. A majr nlusin whih may be drawn frm mparisn f the female qualifiatin rates amng enlistees with thse fr the ivilian ppulatin the same age grup is that the Navy and the ther armed servies attrat a muh higher prprtin f wmen with the ptential t fill highly tehnial jbs than is present in the ppulatin, regardless f rae. The mre rapid "shrinkage" f qualified aessins fr minrities, mpared with whites, indiated in Figures 7 and 8, an be seen in additinal detail in the umulative histgrams in Appendix B fr bth all-servie and Navy 1990 aessins. B. Qualifiatin by Regin The distributins f atual aessins qualified fr nulear upatins and mental grup ategries fr the fur ensus regins are inluded in Appendix A. Figures 9 and 10 shw the all-servie and Navy distributins f male aessins fr three seleted unties, yielding mre insight int variatin amng reruiting envirnments than an be gleaned frm the large aggregate ensus regins. The largest unty, Ls Angeles unty, had 23 perent f all servie male aessins in the nulear qualified ategry. Jhnsn unty, Kansas, had a higher prprtin f male reruits in this ategry (54 perent), and Fultn unty, Gergia, a lwer 32

44 M TD *-» V^ T3 D) < * >*"* JD 8 S l D) Q.I (0 < EL i 1 < D 7" ) t (0 (0 (0 JD 0) Ll_ j 00 JD (0 'sz 5 t JD (0 (0 a t t ji> (0 J D t JD (0 1 ' 4 03 ZJ +-» : %» D i 03 DQ V r v_ - r 2 (D E ) (D (0 a. 2^ D) l 4> 5 S3 (0 0) a> ). (0 E jq Q) 33

45 SS >* "» d 0>J E LL Q. ' Q. g GQ V ^ 99 = 0) E LL _g m J (0 D a 5 * D" i D»-» a> E D) <D a. >.2 v? X) (0 Q) <D D> _ E D Q" u- _ J (d a>.a ED ft 2 ) 'jz 5 34 <D «- z

46 ' - M < * 13 D ^ lsz = X0) - (D (0 i- 5=.? LL 0) J z < x: < 0~ _0 D) < < UL m V»'- l ZJ mmm r 3 V () » n=167) (D < </> s J -3 D "D < in H t. II D D" </> <D z < D z _J II - 9 igure 35

47 M +-» h* T- <D D) < +3 n% D SZ "3» m im 05 1 V '/, ^^ ^ L - D D ^, T3 ^= *^ D) - X v_ HH U_ G ^. 05 < >, 3 > z: is z 05 2 ) < 0) < < +^ LL ) 13 D Q" I ZJ < D) '5 " 05 ie D r z 0) " (0 x: ~3 M II <

48 perentage (17 perent). Navy male enlistees frm these three unties were similarly distributed amng nulear rating/mental grup qualifiatin ategries. The number f female aessins in all but the largest unties was s small that similar unty mparisns were nt feasible.. Underlying Enlistee ASVAB Subtest Sres Underlying the greater similarity in qualifiatin rates amng men and wmen enlistees when mpared with their ivilian unterparts are mre limited gender differenes in ASVAB subtest sres used in the mpsites that sreen fr highly tehnial jbs. The relevant mpsites are: (i) VE+AR; (ii) MK + AS; (iii) AR + 2MK + GS; (iv) MK+EI+GS; and (v) MK+EI + GS + AR. Amng white all-servie enlistees, men sre signifiantly higher than wmen n all but ne (i) f these mpsites (based n Bnferrni t-tests fr all six gender/raeethni grups, p<0.05). Blak wmen reruits sre signifiantly higher than blak men n tw (i and iii) f five mpsites, but signifiantly lwer n the thers. Hispani wmen enlistees' sres are nt signifiantly different frm Hispani men's fr ne (iii) f the mpsites, but are signifiantly higher fr ne (i) and signifiantly lwer fr the remainder. Fr aessins, the eletrnis infrmatin (EI) subtest ntributes mst t differenes in qualifiatin between men and wmen in all rae-ethni grups. Fr male all-servie aessins, rae-ethni grup differenes in subtest sres whih affet qualifiatin fr highly tehnial jbs shw the same pattern as fr ivilians, i.e., whites sre signifiantly higher than Hispanis wh, in turn, sre signifiantly higher than blaks (based n the same Bnferrni t-tests). Amng wmen all-servie aessins, the pattern is the same, with whites' sres signifiantly higher than Hispanis' n all mpsites and blaks 37

49 sring signifiantly lwer than Hispanis n all relevant mpsites. Differenes in sres fr the arithmeti reasning (AR) subtest largely aunted fr lwer qualifiatin rates fr blak reruits and the general siene (GS) and eletrni infrmatin (EI) subtests ntributed t lwer rates fr Hispanis as well as blaks. 38

50 IX. NLUSINS A. Summary Estimates f nulear rating/mental grup qualifiatin fr unties by gender and rae/ethni grup segment were nstruted n the basis f ASVAB mpnent sres frm the NLSY. A methd was develped t utilize unty-level sidemgraphi values in lgisti regressin equatins estimated with the NLSY data base. Resulting prbability estimates fr eah nulear rating/mental grup ategry in eah gender/rae-ethni grup segment in eah unty were then multiplied by unty ppulatin prjetins fr eah segment t yield unty level freasts. These freasts f the ivilian ppulatin distributin amng nulear rating/mental grup qualifiatin ategries fr 1990 were then aggregated and mpared with Navy and all-servie enlistments fr the same year. Great variatin in qualifiatin rates was bserved in the ivilian ppulatin estimates n the basis f gender and rae. While 26 perent f men qualified fr nulear upatins, nly 3 perent f wmen were similarly qualified. Eligibility fr highly tehnial jbs was mre limited fr minrities than fr whites. Almst 31 perent f white males and abut 4 perent f white females qualified, but nly 2. 1 perent f blak males and 0.3 perent f blak females were eligible fr nulear ratings. Hispanis in the ivilian ppulatin fell between blaks and whites with 10.5 perent f males and 0.6 perent f females in the nulear qualified ategry. Enlistments ategrized by nulear rating/mental grup qualifiatin shw a pattern f variatin by gender and rae-ethni grup similar t that fund in the ivilian ppulatin. Hwever, a muh greater prprtin f enlistees than ivilians were nulear qualified. Almst 34 perent f men and 20.0 perent f wmen jining the military servies in 1990 were nulear 39

51 qualified. The disparity between men and wmen is strikingly smaller than amng the ivilian ppulatin f high shl graduates between 17 and 21 years ld. Navy male aessins were 33.5 perent nulear qualified and wmen entering the Navy were 17.7 perent qualified fr these ratings. White males were the mst likely gender/rae-ethni grup segment t be nulear qualified amng all-servie reruits, with 41.0 perent in this ategry. White wmen were next highest with 26.3 perent, fllwed by Hispani males (22.1 perent), Hispani females (12.5 perent), blak males (10.3 perent) and blak wmen (6.2 perent). Qualifiatin rates fr nulear upatins were thus muh higher fr enlistees than fr the ivilian ppulatin fr all gender/rae-ethni grup segments. Navy aessins shwed the same pattern as all-servie aessins by gender and rae-ethni grup, but with Hispani males qualifying at slightly higher rates than white wmen (27.6 perent vs perent). B. Impliatins and Remmendatins A mparisn f the 17 t 21 year ld ivilian high shl graduate ppulatin with 17 t 21 year ld high shl graduate enlistments n the basis f nulear qualifiatin indiates that the pl f qualified white wmen and minrities f bth genders is relatively limited, but that the servies, inluding the Navy, have attrated a very "tehnially trainable" fre with representatin frm all gender/rae-ethni grup segments inluding larger prprtins f nulear rating eligible reruits in eah segment than are present in the ivilian ppulatin. Enlistment standards, fr the mst part, limit reruits t mental ategries IIIB and abve. Reruiting effrt and enlistment inentives direted tward high quality (IIIA and abve) yuth help in attrating these targeted individuals as may suh exgenus fatrs as pr ivilian 40

52 labr market nditins and the stagnant r slw grwing level f general enmi ativity. As the yuth labr fre hanges in rae-ethni grup mpsitin ver the next deade t inlude a larger prprtin f minrity members, the nulear qualified ivilians will make up a smaller perentage f the ttal market. Thus, the pl f qualified individuals will be (relatively) smaller at a time when tehnial requirements fr military upatins are expeted t inrease. The pening up f sme nulear fields t wmen may help t meet the demand fr thse qualified fr highly tehnial fields, thugh a muh smaller perentage f wmen than men in the ivilian ppulatin are eligible. Althugh yung wmen tend t have limited interest in nntraditinal jbs, higher-ability wmen shw a greater tendeny t hse sex-atypial upatins (Waite and Berry man 1985). In additin, a larger perentage f the female yutn labr fre will be aunted fr by minrity wmen wh have the lwest qualifiatin rates amng gender/rae-ethni grup segments. Despite these barriers, minrity wmen mprise a larger prprtin f the military wrk fre than they d f the ivilian labr fre and they are mre likely t wrk in nntraditinal jbs than their ivilian unterparts (Mre 1991; Firestne 1992). The evlutin t a system f jb plaement whih favrs white males is nt surprising,, given the histrial predminane f white men in the U.S. military. It is similar t that fund in the seletin predures f eduatinal institutins and ivilian emplyers and it hallenges the military t nstrut st effetive sreening riteria fr tehnial training that permit an expanded pprtunity fr wmen and minrities. The Navy has made great strides in reent years in pening areer fields t wmen and in regnizing the need t inrease minrity 41

53 representatin in many upatins. ntinued reliane n upatinal sreens emphasizing suh dimensins as arithmeti reasning, eletrnis infrmatin, and aut shp knwledge ges unter t the egalitarian philsphy f reduing gender and rae-ethni grup membership as a basis fr upatinal eligibility in tday's Navy. Suh reliane shuld be altered r augmented t assure the aquisitin and training f a highly skilled Navy f the future. A lser evaluatin f the ASVAB subtest sres whih are effetively sreening ut wmen and minrities frm tehnial training and upatins is warranted. Alternative st effetive sreening riteria and training prgrams that permit an expanded pprtunity fr females and minrities fr tehnial upatins shuld be explred. 42

54 REFERENES Biaksiz, Adnan (1992). A P-Based Mdel Fr Estimating Reginal Reruit Markets. Master's thesis. Mnterey A: Naval Pstgraduate Shl. Bishp, Jhn H. (1989). "Is the Test Sre Deline Respnsible fr the Prdutivity Grwth Deline?," Amerian Enmi Review, vl. 79, n. 1, pp Bk, Darrel R. and Mre, Elsie G. (1984). The Prfile f Amerian Yuth: Demgraphi Influenes n ASVAB Test Perfrmane. Washingtn D: ffie f the Assistant Seretary f Defense (Manpwer, Installatins and Lgistis). enter fr Human Resures Researh (1991). NLS Handbk lumbus H: the hi State University. Eitelberg, Mark J. (1988). Manpwer fr Military upatins. Alexandria VA: ffie f the Assistant Seretary f Defense (Fre Management and Persnnel). Firestne, Juanita M. (1992). "upatinal Segregatin: mparing the ivilian and Military Wrk Fre," Armed Fres and Siety. Vl. 18(3), pp Grman, Linda and Thmas, Gerge W. (1993). "General Intelletual Ahievement, Enlistment Intentins, and Raial Representativeness in the U.S. Military," Armed Fres & Siety, vl. 19, n. 4. Kher, Kathryn M. and Thmas, Gerge W. (1992). Yuth Labr Fre in the 21st entury. Tehnial reprt. Mnterey A: Naval Pstgraduate Shl. Maddala, G.S. (1983). Limited Dependent and Qualitative Variables in Enmetris. New Yrk NY: ambridge University Press. Mre, Brenda I. (1991). "Afrian-Amerian Wmen in the U.S. Military," Armed Fres and Siety. Vl. 17(3), pp Mreau, Ellen (1991). Freasting High Teh ASVAB Sres. Master's Naval Pstgraduate Shl. thesis. Mnterey A: ffie f Tehnlgy Assessment, U.S. ngress (1990). Wrker Training: mpeting in the New Internatinal Enmy. Washingtn D: U.S. ngress. Petersn, Jeffery M. (1990). AFT Sre Freasting Mdels Fr Reginal Estimatin f Qualified Military Available. Master's thesis. Mnterey A: Naval Pstgraduate Shl. 43

55 Shulz, David S. (1993). A mparisn f Alternative Measures f the Qualified Military Available and Interested Reruit Market. Master's thesis. Mnterey A: Naval Pstgraduate Shl. Sinkiewitz, James A. (1990). Prediting Enlistment Behavir Frm Stated Intentins and Demgraphi harateristis. Master's thesis. Mnterey A: Naval Pstgraduate Shl. Snyder, Paul R. (1990). An Empirial Analysis f Enlistment Intentins and Subsequent Enlistment Behavir. Master's thesis. Mnterey A: Naval Pstgraduate Shl. Thmas, Gerge W. and Grman, Linda (1991). Estimatin f High Quality Military Available and Interested. Tehnial reprt. Mnterey A: Naval Pstgraduate Shl. U.S. Department f Defense (1992). ASVAB 18/19 Eduatr and unselr Guide. Washingtn D: Department f Defense. U.S. Department f Defense (1982). Prfile f Amerian Yuth: 1980 Natinwide Administratin f the Armed Servies Vatinal Aptitude Battery. Washingtn D: ffie f the Assistant Seretary f Defense (Manpwer, Reserve Affairs and Lgistis). U.S. Department f the Navy (1992). BUPERS Instrutin Pers-403f - Nulear Field Prgram. Uslar, Hans J. (1991). A Prttype Mdel fr Estimating High Teh Navy Reruiting Markets. Master's thesis. Mnterey A: Naval Pstgraduate Shl. Waite, Linda J. and Berryman, Sue E. (1985). Wmen in Nntraditinal upatins: hie and Turnver. Santa Mnia, A: RAND. Wds, Willis A. (1990). Analysis f Enlistment Inentives Fr High Quality Reruits t the U.S. Army. Master's thesis. Mnterey A: Naval Pstgraduate Shl. 44

56 APPENDIX A REGINAL NULEAR RATING/MENTAL GRUP QUALIFIATIN DISTRIBUTINS 45

57 TABLE A-l U.S. BUREAU F ENSUS LASSIFIATIN F STATES BY REGIN Regin States NRTH ENTRAL Illinis Missuri Indiana Iwa Kansas Mihigan Minnesta Nebraska Nrth Dakta hi Suth Dakta Wisnsin NRTHEAST nnetiut New Jersey Maine New Yrk Massahusetts New Hampshire Pennsylvania Rhde Island Vermnt SUTH Alabama Maryland Arkansas Mississippi Delaware Nrth arlina Distrit f lumbia klahma Flrida Gergia Kentuky Luisiana Suth arlina Tennessee Texas Virginia West Virginia WEST Alaska Mntana Arizna Nevada alifrnia New Mexi lrad regn Hawaii Idah Utah Washingtn Wyming 46

58 g g T_ 03 D +- < LU LU 5 V % * ^^ D) 05 D)0 _ 05 X < '5) 05 D D 05 Q. 13 ( D) r i_ J0 D 4> fa JZ ) Z X D 05 E - LU 05 2 < D LU z: X H 05 D 05 ZJ itz 13 47

59 T- g m _. <»*» < Q. - ^ <D D - ^ -^ "T 73 TS LU d a) eg v 0 '5 g = Ql D T i ^D " -g fs < - 29 bi) D D 0) r i_ UJ Li- 48

60 g "t < M LU» -» 03 V - g.2 -g T x: X " ^^!-» d i_ D Q D) -» D i 13 T i_ T3 ) VJ II (0 I l < Z J3 _- WD 6" M * 2. -> w X < UJ? Z.. 3. I "(0 3 *-> 49

61 *(/> < h- -.9 D 2 = ^ 3 d) 13 X <S ^. D)LL V-» (0 LLI +-» 5 II MM -1 i T D T M Q. II N 4 West, ^J "(0 4) 0>~ *H I ^ 2 < D) /5 ih" "P T3 ) «" D J*;; II i_ "(0 2 - D 4-T 13 r 0) (0 111 D z 2 0>* D z T- 0> in a V- 50

62 n ' < h- ) T- ) < <D ~U 03 Q. D a: Z3 r > LU a Q. 13 a D) i - m v ammm +-» T~ II ~J T -d *-> i_ (0 a> 3 a 03 x 03 D 03 D. 03 *-» D II z J UJ.- k 5* NI 03 a) (0 v_ +» 0) 51

63 '. " < r >*\I a T- 'frt 03 ) ^ 2 d x: '-' >, x:.? Ex D).E 03 D v_ d LU 03 3 Q ) +-! < ^ vx) 03 r-?- ^ «<i- D 1 M i JZ 03 ^s*"s^ * r- ^^^» 1 z z: g v ' 03 = J 03 U vj v- <M. < z r 03 N *<?> vj fa M ".SJa JZ»-» D "S «VJ *ZI J) w (0 i_ *- (1) 52

64 APPENDIX B SHRINKAGE F 1990 ALL-SERVIE AND NAVY AESSINS 53

65 TM M -»-» < N 0) < ) a) 1 "> U i_ 13 "D 5 < ) ) 1 SI H - D) D) i X v_ x: I) +-» 03 E H^ LL D QL 16 -» '*-> D X JD > n (0 > JQ ~n -5 * a fa 54

66 "U (0 r- M ^ r- < *- > ) 03 < 4-* D 05 ) ) *- M- J U) UJ 05 x: ii x: in d d d 05 D r i 05 * -»-» E L±_ "tf z a > Q_ 3 n 05 <N u_ i T 05 -» < g ^ ^n ) Q^J *+-» > 05 a:.q 05 v_ ^ 05 T3 05 D p-^ lh 55

67 -r- M < *- 0> > R - > ^ < 7r i_ i = T3 ^ ZJ 9 "^ ~"-~ * *>. Q(5ffi ) ) T- XI *- 9 sz D) ) 5 T i_ Jd in M t- Q. "6 +-» r > (0 "D += > (0 X5 5 3 m I M u i 0 r^ fe 56

68 "D «T- M 4 r^ < i ~ >* > U) 03 < -* 2 -a ^ 15 D u ) 00 T~ «*- 03 Jd J ) X L. m IMM - u q q q vi 0 13 r &_ E (0 =5 z Q D a > E D & rr V- 1 W Q. " < s, ** :> t -» > <r _Q -^ i_ " g z Q n 57

69 ' 8w < f^ D) < I < $ 3 Q. ^ ) jz.d) -1-.*: I JZ en "D ^ V : r* "1 H- M " /) D - r ^> i_ : s: E,T" ^> ^ : ^ E ::::: <,J (0 ^^^_ ::::: Q. " ; ; ; j 13 Q. ^SX ^ ^^^ " :^^ E " -»-» D Z > n i/> T3 ^i <W < P <D " -» w d i:;;;:::!:!:;! Q. ;;;; :::::::: (0 -*» ^. '^M^MM^'/////// VJ (0 : :::::::::::::; * ::::::::::::: (fl ^^^yy^^^w^%m : * ' ' * 9 P 9 «fr q \i q d zz M) a ta > ^t* < 58

70 TJ», M *-» < h- >^ 1~ > $ ) z: < 1_ "D Q. D "D (D X 03 >* ) ) 1 H JZ - ) X %mm sz D Q- L. E 4 *-> if " ZJ D z r > Q. 13 JD v i_ 1 (3 tt " v u & *+-» D > tj Z 9 ta 59

71 DISTRIBUTIN LIST Ageny N. f pies Defense Tehnial Infrmatin enter 2 amern Statin Alexandria, VA Dudley Knx Library, de 52 2 Naval Pstgraduate Shl Mnterey, A ffie f Researh Administratin 1 de 81 Naval Pstgraduate Shl Mnterey, A Department f Systems Management Library 1 de SM/Ah Naval Pstgraduate Shl 555 Dyer RD RM 229 Bldg 330 Mnterey, A Library, enter fr Naval Analyses Frd Avenue Alexandria, VA R Jhn Repiky 1 mmander, Navy Reruiting mmand de Randlph Street Arlingtn, VA Ed Shmitz 1 Navy Reruiting mmand 801 Randlph Street Arlingtn, VA Steven ylke 1 BUPERS PERS-233 Arlingtn Annex Washingtn, D

72 Jerry D. Lehnus 1 DMD, Suite Wilsn Blvd. Arlingtn, VA H. Wallae Sinaik, Prgram Diretr 1 Manpwer Researh and Advisry Servie Smithsnian Institutin 801 N. Pitt Street Alexandria, VA Dr. Jules J. Brak, de 11 1 Navy Persnnel R&D enter Ryne Rad San Dieg, A Dr. W. S. Sellman 1 Diretr, Aessin Pliy ASD (FM & P) DASD (MM & PP)/AP The Pentagn, Rm. 2B271 Washingtn, D Rbert Tinney 1 Defense Manpwer Data enter N. Wilsn Blvd., Ste. 400 Arlingtn, VA East Gerge Germandik 1 Air Fre Reruiting Servie 550 D Street West, Ste. 1 Randlph AFB, TX Rbert J. Brandewie, Deputy Diretr 1 Defense Manpwer Data enter 99 Paifi Street, Suite 15A Mnterey, A Gerge W. Thmas, de SM/Te 10 Assiate Prfessr f Enmis Systems Management Department Naval Pstgraduate Shl 555 Dyer RD RM 229 Mnterey, A

73 Kathryn Kher, de SM/Kk 20 Systems Management Department Naval Pstgraduate Shl 555 Dyer RD RM 229 Mnterey, A James Hsek 1 The RAND rpratin 1700 Main Street P.. Bx 2138 Santa Mnia, A Prfessr Rger Little 1 Department f Enmis U.S. Naval Aademy 589 MNair Rad Annaplis, MD

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