F Quarter 201 Real Estate Market Update. The Builder Developer Lender Council of the Greater Atlanta Home Builders Association

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F Quarter 201 Real Estate Market Update The Builder Developer Lender Council of the Greater Atlanta Home Builders Association Prepared and presented by: Eugene James, Atlanta Director Metrostudy

1 F Quarter 201 Real Estate Market Update The Builder Developer Lender Council of the Greater Atlanta Home Builders Association Prepared and presented by: Eugene James, Atlanta Director Metrostudy Housing Market Intelligence ex.111 And Terry Morris, President Morris & Fellows Real Estate Services Sources: First Multiple Listing Services U.S. Department of Labor

2 Updated through March 2012 MSA's Ranked by Job Growth (Sorted by Annual Job Growth (#) Descending) Rank State Name Annual Permit (SF) Annual Change (SF) Annual Permit (MF) Annual Change (MF) Current Employment Annual Job Growth # Annual Job Growth % E-P Ratio Population (Estimate) 1 NY New York-Northern New Jersey- Long Island NY-NJ-PA 5, ,728 4,849 8,410, , % ,007,339 2 TX Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land 23,814 3,047 10,763 5,873 2,649,500 82, % 2.4 6,152,242 TX 3 TX Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington TX 14,500 1,034 10,670 4,394 2,966,800 70, % 2.8 6,581,212 4 CA Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana CA 4, ,807 3,541 5,219,300 63, % ,898,020 5 IL Chicago-Naperville-Joliet IL-IN- 4, , ,262,900 42, % 5.0 9,521,901 WI 6 CA San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont 1, ,878 1,397 1,923,400 42, % 7.2 4,365,977 CA 7 AZ Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ 8,372 1,916 2,519 1,749 1,755,400 40, % 3.7 4,324,298 8 WA Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA 6, ,589 3,317 1,682,200 39, % 3.1 3,505,739 9 DC Washington-Arlington-Alexandria 9, ,768 4,277 3,011,300 36, % 2.1 5,708,580 DC-VA-MD-WV 10 FL Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami 4,631 1,611 4,891 2,600 2,252,200 32, % 3.4 5,628,256 Beach FL 11 CA San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara CA ,270-1, ,100 29, % 9.1 1,854, CO Denver-Aurora CO 4, ,822 1,338 1,219,300 27, % 4.1 2,600, GA Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta 6, ,471 2,299 2,315,000 27, % 2.7 5,425,233 GA 14 MI Detroit-Warren-Livonia MI 2, ,777,800 26, % 7.6 4,262, OH Cincinnati-Middletown OH-KY-IN 2, ,900 21, % 6.7 2,144, IN Louisville KY-IN 1, ,200 21, % 8.2 1,303, UT Salt Lake City UT 2, , ,100 20, % 5.5 1,151, FL Tampa-St. Petersburg- Clearwater FL 4, , ,149,600 20, % 3.0 2,833, MN Minneapolis-St. Paul- Bloomington MN-WI 3, , ,716,500 19, % 3.3 3,330, TX Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, 6, ,204 4, ,900 19, % 1.6 1,793,850 TX 21 PA Pittsburgh PA 2, ,147,000 18, % 6.5 2,352, MD Baltimore-Towson MD 3, , ,296,700 18, % 3.6 2,729, TN Nashville-Davidson-- Murfreesboro TN 4, ,728 1, ,800 15, % 2.6 1,630, OH Columbus OH 2, ,801 1, ,500 15, % 2.9 1,865, LA Lafayette LA ,300 14, % ,895

3 NATIONAL ECONOMIC OVERVIEW Annual Job Growth Trend NATIONAL ECONOMIC OVERVIEW Employment Growth by Industry 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000-1,949,000 Source: U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Prof & Business Services Transportation, Trade & Utilities Education & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality (1,000,000) (2,000,000) 1Q2012 Manufacturing Construction (3,000,000) (4,000,000) (5,000,000) (6,000,000) The Annual Job formation rate is positive and reflects a substantial improvement since However, the job growth rate has not reached a level where it will have any significant impact on the Unemployment Rate. Natural Resources & Mining Financial Activities Other Services Positive job growth in 9 of the 11 job sectors: Information (7,000,000) Mar 2004 Mar 2005 Mar 2006 Mar 2007 Mar 2008 Mar 2009 Mar 2010 Mar 2011 Mar 2012 Source: U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (400,000) (200,000) - 200, , , ,000 Government Copyright Metrostudy 2011 Copyright Metrostudy 2011 Page 1

4 Atlanta MSA Population/Demographic Summary Page 2

5 Atlanta Employment Positive job growth begin in August 2010 METRO ATLANTA ANNUAL RATE OF NON-AG NEW JOB FORMATION But just reviled after revisions were year done over year in March 2012 using Unemployment Insurance Tax Records (far more accurate than previously used 4% sample survey) 28,000 24,000 20,000 16,000 ATLANTA EMPLOYMENT NET JOBS 27,400 year over year As of March ,500 14, , ,400 8,000 4,000 4,400 7, Apr-98 Atlanta created 34,400 net new jobs in 2011!!! The March unemployment rate declined to 8.7% Apr-99 Apr-00 Apr-01 Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar ,000-8,000 Total +1.2% -4,100 Const -4.6% Manfg +3.0% Trade-trans +2.7% -400 Inform -7,100 Finance -.5% -5.0% Prof & Bus Educ-Health +4.7% ,900 Leisure-other servcs -1.0% -3,000 Gov't -.9% Page 3

6 Year over Year Source: FMLS Closings up +24% Inventory down -34% 65,000 60,000 55,000 Resale Market Trends closings and inventory Includes single family detached, townhome and condo 55,134 Includes single family detached, townhome and condo 50,000 Units per Year 45,000 40,000 35,000 7 months was about normal 30,000 25,000 20,000 Resale inventory is below normal levels One year ago months supply was 10.1 Annual Closings Total Inventory Source: FMLS Only 14% TH/Condo 14% TH/Condo Page 4

7 Resale/Foreclosure Prices combined (Monthly) down 6 months but up sharply in March. March Year over Year price down 5% Atlanta Historical Monthly Building Permits Median resale price in Sept was $127,000, Exactly the same from one year ago Single Family March year over year up 40% Jan 2004 March Level needed to reach 25,000 annually, Atlanta s future new normal? 22 county region Jan 4-Apr 4-Jul 4-Oct 5-Jan 5-Apr 5-Jul 5-Oct 6-Jan 6-Apr 6-Jul 6-Oct 7-Jan 7-Apr 7-Jul 7-Oct 8-Jan 8-Apr 8-Jul 8-Oct 9-Jan 9-Apr 9-Jul 9-Oct 10-Jan 10-Apr 10-Jul 10-Oct 11-Jan 11-Apr 11-Jul 11-Oct 12-Jan Source: Metrosearch Property Analysis System Page 5

8 59,000 54,000 49,000 44,000 39,000 34,000 29,000 24,000 19,000 14,000 ATLANTA HOUSING MARKET 9,000 4,000 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 Annual Starts and Closings (move-ins) 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 Annual Starts Townhouse and Detached housing combined 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 Annual Closings 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 7,628-17% 4Q11 5, % 1Q12 40,000 36,000 32,000 28,000 24,000 20,000 16,000 12,000 8,000 4,000 ATLANTA INVENTORY AND MONTHS SUPPLY - 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 Townhome and Single Family Detached Normal was about 9 months Finished Vacant Under Construction Housing MOS 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q MOS Page 6

ATLANTA TOP COMMUNITIES RANKED BY CLOSINGS 1Q12 Subdivision Name Market Area Price Range Annual Starts Annual Closings 1 Sun City Peachtree Spalding $131-$241 66 83 2 Deaton Creek/Village Hall

9 ATLANTA TOP COMMUNITIES RANKED BY CLOSINGS 1Q12 Subdivision Name Market Area Price Range Annual Starts Annual Closings 1 Sun City Peachtree Spalding $131-$ Deaton Creek/Village Hall $181-$ James Creek Forsyth $169-$ Cedar Grove Fulton (South) $139-$ Sugarloaf Village West Gwinnett $178-$ Champions Run Forsyth $245-$ Barrington Estates Gwinnett $135-$ TH/Caswell Overlook Cobb $178-$ Camp Creek/Overlook CL Clayton $192-$ Harmony on the Lakes Cherokee $149-$ Johns Creek Fulton (North) $189-$ Cobblestone Creek Cobb $137-$ Bullsboro Crossing Coweta $120-$ Centennial Lake Cherokee $130-$ TH/Battery on Paces Ferry Cobb $330-$ Current New Home Price Trends (from recent starts) Median New Home Price on Starts 1Q12 $249,625 1Q11 $245,052 1Q10 $242,200 More representative of market today Page 7

New Reports are Here. Analyze Info by School Attendance Zones! Eugene James Director 404-370-9001 ex.

10 New Reports are Here. Analyze Info by School Attendance Zones! Eugene James Director ex.111 Find Future Subs, Remaining Lots, Analyze Current Resale, REO and Foreclosure activity... now you know Page 8

Georgia Power Community & Economic Development

Georgia Power Community & Economic Development Episode IV A New Hope A long time ago in a galaxy far, far away? Phantom Menace or real concern? Jobs In-migration Foreclosures Housing prices Permits Meter