ON THE GLOBAL, REGIONAL & LOCAL ECONOMIC CLIMATE
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1 ON THE GLOBAL, REGIONAL & LOCAL ECONOMIC CLIMATE ARC Regional Leadership Institute Roger Tutterow, Ph.D. Professor of Economics Mercer University Saint Simons Island, GA September 15, 2011
2 Recession: In, Out or Headed for a Double Dip
3 1Q-07 2Q-07 3Q-07 4Q-07 1Q-08 2Q-08 3Q-08 4Q-08 1Q-09 2Q-09 3Q-09 4Q-09 1Q-10 2Q-10 3Q-10 4Q-10 1Q-11 2Q-11 GDP vs. Final Sales 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% GDP Final Sales
4 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Institute of Supply Management s PMI
5 Jan-89 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Consumer Sentiment
6 Jan-93 Nov-93 Sep-94 Jul-95 May-96 Mar-97 Jan-98 Nov-98 Sep-99 Jul-00 May-01 Mar-02 Jan-03 Nov-03 Sep-04 Jul-05 May-06 Mar-07 Jan-08 Nov-08 Sep-09 Jul-10 12% Retail Sales 9% 6% 3% 0% -3% -6% -9% RS RS ex-auto -12%
7 Where Have All the Jobs Gone? or Brother, Can You Spare a Job?
8 Sep-01 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Change in Employment (non-farm payrolls)
9 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Change in Employment: The Tale of Two Sectors (Change from Peak) 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% TOTAL CONST MANUF -25% -30%
10 Jan-01 May-01 Sep-01 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Change in Employment: US & Georgia 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% -6% -7% US GA
11 North Dakota DC Alaska Texas Indiana Massachusetts Vermont West Virginia Kentucky Pennsylvania New York Arkansas South Dakota Michigan Tennessee Rhode Island Maryland Virginia Montana South Carolina Nebraska New Hampshire Mississippi Wisconsin Maine Utah Iowa Minnesota Oregon Hawaii Illinois Ohio Louisiana Alabama Delaware Oklahoma New Jersey Florida Colorado Connecticut Idaho North Carolina Wyoming New Mexico California Missouri Georgia Kansas Washington Arizona Nevada Employment By State (2009 to 2010) 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3%
12 North Dakota Texas Utah Wyoming Oklahoma Massachusetts Hawaii Alaska Oregon Kentucky Michigan New Hampshire Rhode Island Ohio Nebraska Louisiana Washington California Pennsylvania New York Iowa Montana South Dakota Wisconsin South Carolina Arizona Illinois Colorado Vermont Arkansas Maine Connecticut Tennessee Idaho Florida New Jersey Minnesota New Mexico Virginia Missouri West Virginia DC Mississippi Maryland North Carolina Nevada Alabama Kansas Georgia Delaware Indiana State Employment (7/10 to 7/11) 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2%
13 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Atlanta & Georgia Employment 6% 4% 2% GA ATL 0% -2% -4% -6% -8%
14 Jan-01 May-01 Sep-01 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 8% A Tale of Two Cities: Warner Robins 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% Georgia Warner Robins -8%
15 Jan-01 May-01 Sep-01 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 8% A Tale of Two Cities: Dalton 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% Georgia Dalton -12%
16 GA Albany Athens Atlanta Augusta Brunswick Columbus Dalton Gainesville Hinesville Macon Rome Savannah Valdosta Warner Robbins 9% Georgia Job Loss in Recession 6% 3% 0% -3% -6% -9% -12% -15%
17 Recession Driver #1: Energy Prices Cause Pain
18 Jan-99 Aug-99 Mar-00 Oct-00 May-01 Dec-01 Jul-02 Feb-03 Sep-03 Apr-04 Nov-04 Jun-05 Jan-06 Aug-06 Mar-07 Oct-07 May-08 Dec-08 Jul-09 Feb-10 Sep-10 Apr-11 Core CPI 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0%
19 Who Gets Hurt By Higher Energy Prices? Positive Small Negative Avg Negative Large Negative
20 Jan-80 Jan-82 Jan-84 Jan-86 Jan-88 Jan-90 Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Foreign Exchange: $ vs. Major Currencies
21 Recession Driver #2: The Credit Crunch: Its About Pricing and Access
22 Jan-80 Jan-82 Jan-84 Jan-86 Jan-88 Jan-90 Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Federal Funds Rate 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0%
23 2Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q 2010 C&I Lending Starting to Ease? (Net % Tightening Standards for C&I Loans) Large & Med Small
24 Apr-90 Oct-90 Apr-91 Oct-91 Apr-92 Oct-92 Apr-93 Oct-93 Apr-94 Oct-94 Apr-95 Oct-95 Apr-96 Oct-96 Apr-97 Oct-97 Apr-98 Oct-98 Apr-99 Oct-99 Apr-00 Oct-00 Apr-01 Oct-01 Apr-02 Oct-02 Apr-03 Oct-03 Apr-04 Oct-04 Apr-05 Oct-05 Apr-06 Oct-06 Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Oct-10 Net Charge Offs Peaking?
25 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Consumer Credit (% change in balances) Revolving Non-Revolving
26 Mortgage Delinquency Rates
27 Recession Driver #3: The Never-Ending Real Estate Correction
28 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 New Home Sales (Single Family, SSAR in thousands)
29 Jan-87 Jan-88 Jan-89 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan Home Prices verses CPI CPI Case-Shiller
30 Dallas Denver Boston Cleveland Charlotte New York Atlanta Washington Portland Seattle Composite-20 Composite-10 Chicago Minneapolis Los Angeles San Diego San Francisco Tampa Detroit Miami Phoenix Las Vegas CS/S&P Home Price Index (FROM PEAK TO MAY 2011) 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% -60%
31 1991 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q4 Prices: US/GA/ATL US GA ATL
32 Athens Albany Athens Atlanta Augusta Brunswick Columbus Dalton Gainesville Hinesville Macon Rome Savannah Valdosta Warner Robins MEDIAN EXISTING HOME PRICES 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% Boom Bust
33 Mar-95 Mar-96 Mar-97 Mar-98 Mar-99 Mar-00 Mar-01 Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Commercial Vacancy Rates 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Office Industrial
34 Some Thoughts on Regions & Growth
35 Do Clusters Matter? Spillovers to surrounding areas Workforce specialization Spinoffs remain in location Some Areas Identified with Clusters RTI Austin Silicon Valley Wichita Huntsville Charlotte
36 How Have We Done as a Region? Strengths & Weakness Relative Importance Have They Changed?
37 Thinking about the factors which make a location desirable for conducting business, what do you consider to be Georgia's three greatest assets as a place to do business? 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Overall clim ate Transportation Workforce Educ (K-12) Educ (vo-tech) Educ (college) Taxes Econ Incentives Regional hub Reg climate Labor cost Airport/port Govt services Crime Weather Other
38 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% What are Georgia's three greatest weaknesses as a place to do business? Overall clim ate Transportation Workforce Educ (K-12) Educ (vo-tech) Educ (college) Taxes Econ Incentives Regional hub Reg climate Labor cost Airport/port Govt services Crime Weather Other
39 On the Political Front
40 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Federal Budget Surplus (source: US Department of Treasury)
41 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Federal Budget Surplus (source: US Department of Treasury)
42 Currents Issues in Fiscal Affairs Bush Cuts extended, but what about after 2012 Government shutdown & default avoided. S&P downgrades debt Sensitivity of federal & state tax revenues to economic activity. Local fiscal picture: RE valuation and revenues
43 GA: Nominal versus Real Tax Revenues Nominal Real
44 Election 2012
45 ON THE GLOBAL, REGIONAL & LOCAL ECONOMIC CLIMATE ARC Regional Leadership Institute Roger Tutterow, Ph.D. Professor of Economics Mercer University Saint Simons Island, GA September 15, 2011
ON THE ECONOMIC, BUSINESS AND POLITICAL CLIMATE
ON THE ECONOMIC, BUSINESS AND POLITICAL CLIMATE Roger Tutterow, Ph.D. Coles College of Business Kennesaw State University rtuttero@kennesaw.edu 2017 Spring Workshop May 25, 2017 Buford, GA Expansion Getting
3+ 3+ N = 155, 442 3+ R 2 =.32 < < < 3+ N = 149, 685 3+ R 2 =.27 < < < 3+ N = 99, 752 3+ R 2 =.4 < < < 3+ N = 98, 887 3+ R 2 =.6 < < < 3+ N = 52, 624 3+ R 2 =.28 < < < 3+ N = 36, 281 3+ R 2 =.5 < < < 7+
POLITICAL CLIMATE. Roger Tutterow, Ph.D. Coles College of Business Kennesaw State t University
ON THE ECONOMIC, BUSINESS AND POLITICAL CLIMATE Roger Tutterow, Ph.D. Coles College of Business Kennesaw State t University it rtuttero@kennesaw.edu CCUL Coastal Supervisory Committee & Internal Auditor
ON THE ECONOMIC, BUSINESS AND POLITICAL CLIMATE
ON THE ECONOMIC, BUSINESS AND POLITICAL CLIMATE Roger Tutterow, Ph.D. Coles College of Business Kennesaw State University rtuttero@kennesaw.edu Business Outlook Breakfast January 30, 2018 Atlanta, GA Question
TABLE 3c: Congressional Districts with Number and Percent of Hispanics* Living in Hard-to-Count (HTC) Census Tracts**
living Alaska 00 47,808 21,213 44.4 Alabama 01 20,661 3,288 15.9 Alabama 02 23,949 6,614 27.6 Alabama 03 20,225 3,247 16.1 Alabama 04 41,412 7,933 19.2 Alabama 05 34,388 11,863 34.5 Alabama 06 34,849 4,074
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TABLE 3b: Congressional Districts Ranked by Percent of Hispanics* Living in Hard-to- Count (HTC) Census Tracts**
Rank State District Count (HTC) 1 New York 05 150,499 141,567 94.1 2 New York 08 133,453 109,629 82.1 3 Massachusetts 07 158,518 120,827 76.2 4 Michigan 13 47,921 36,145 75.4 5 Illinois 04 508,677 379,527
ON THE ECONOMIC, BUSINESS AND POLITICAL CLIMATE
ON THE ECONOMIC, BUSINESS AND POLITICAL CLIMATE Roger Tutterow, Ph.D. Coles College of Business Kennesaw State University rtuttero@kennesaw.edu 2018 Winter Forum March 6, 2018 Greenville, SC Question #1:
Unemployment Rate (%) Rank State. Unemployment
States Ranked by February 2018 Unemployment Rate Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Unemployment Unemployment 1 Hawaii 2.1 19 Alabama 3.7 33 Ohio 4.5 2 New Hampshire 2.6 19 Missouri 3.7 33 Rhode Island 4.5
Unemployment Rate (%) Rank State. Unemployment
States Ranked by November 2015 Unemployment Rate Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Unemployment Unemployment 1 North Dakota 2.7 19 Indiana 4.4 37 Georgia 5.6 2 Nebraska 2.9 20 Ohio 4.5 37 Tennessee 5.6
Unemployment Rate (%) Rank State. Unemployment
States Ranked by April 2017 Unemployment Rate Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Unemployment Unemployment 1 Colorado 2.3 17 Virginia 3.8 37 California 4.8 2 Hawaii 2.7 20 Massachusetts 3.9 37 West Virginia
Unemployment Rate (%) Rank State. Unemployment
States Ranked by August 2017 Unemployment Rate Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Unemployment Unemployment 1 North Dakota 2.3 18 Maryland 3.9 36 New York 4.8 2 Colorado 2.4 18 Michigan 3.9 38 Delaware 4.9
Unemployment Rate (%) Rank State. Unemployment
States Ranked by March 2016 Unemployment Rate Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Unemployment Unemployment 1 South Dakota 2.5 19 Delaware 4.4 37 Georgia 5.5 2 New Hampshire 2.6 19 Massachusetts 4.4 37 North
Unemployment Rate (%) Rank State. Unemployment
States Ranked by September 2017 Unemployment Rate Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Unemployment Unemployment 1 North Dakota 2.4 17 Indiana 3.8 36 New Jersey 4.7 2 Colorado 2.5 17 Kansas 3.8 38 Pennsylvania
Unemployment Rate (%) Rank State. Unemployment
States Ranked by December 2017 Unemployment Rate Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Unemployment Unemployment 1 Hawaii 2.0 16 South Dakota 3.5 37 Connecticut 4.6 2 New Hampshire 2.6 20 Arkansas 3.7 37 Delaware
Unemployment Rate (%) Rank State. Unemployment
States Ranked by September 2015 Unemployment Rate Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Unemployment Unemployment 1 North Dakota 2.8 17 Oklahoma 4.4 37 South Carolina 5.7 2 Nebraska 2.9 20 Indiana 4.5 37 Tennessee
Unemployment Rate (%) Rank State. Unemployment
States Ranked by November 2014 Unemployment Rate Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Unemployment Unemployment 1 North Dakota 2.7 19 Pennsylvania 5.1 35 New Mexico 6.4 2 Nebraska 3.1 20 Wisconsin 5.2 38 Connecticut
Unemployment Rate (%) Rank State. Unemployment
States Ranked by July 2018 Unemployment Rate Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Unemployment Unemployment 1 Hawaii 2.1 19 Massachusetts 3.6 37 Kentucky 4.3 2 Iowa 2.6 19 South Carolina 3.6 37 Maryland 4.3
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News Release Follow The Conference Board For further information: Carol Courter 212-339-0232 / courter@conference-board.org Release #5990 For Immediate Release 10:00 AM ET, Wednesday, January 3, 2018 Online
For further information: Carol Courter / Release #5486
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For further information: Carol Courter / Release #5942. Online Job Ads Increased 102,000 in March
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For further information: Carol Courter / Release #6016. Online Job Ads Decreased 69,300 in April
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For further information: Carol Courter / Release #5980. Online Job Ads Increased 81,500 in October
News Release Follow The Conference Board For further information: Carol Courter 212-339-0232 / courter@conference-board.org Release #5980 For Immediate Release 10:00 AM ET, Wednesday, November 1, 2017
For further information: Carol Courter / Release #5996. Online Job Ads Increased 1,200 in January
News Release Follow The Conference Board For further information: Carol Courter 212-339-0232 / courter@conference-board.org Release #5996 For Immediate Release 10:00 AM ET, Wednesday, January 31, 2018
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News Release Follow The Conference Board For further information: Peter Tulupman 212-339-0231 / peter.tulupman@conference-board.org Release #5594 Jonathan Liu 212-339-0257 / jonathan.liu@conference-board.org
For further information: Carol Courter / Release #5952. Online Job Ads Increased 195,600 in May
News Release Follow The Conference Board For further information: Carol Courter 212-339-0232 / courter@conference-board.org Release #5952 For Immediate Release 10:00 AM ET, Wednesday, May 31, 2017 Online
For further information: Carol Courter / Release #5916
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For further information: Carol Courter / Release #6029. Online Job Ads Increased 170,800 in July
News Release Follow The Conference Board For further information: Carol Courter 212-339-0232 / courter@conference-board.org Release #6029 For Immediate Release 10:00 AM ET, Wednesday, August 1, 2018 Online
For further information: Carol Courter / Release #5963. Online Job Ads Decreased 157,700 in July
News Release Follow The Conference Board For further information: Carol Courter 212-339-0232 / courter@conference-board.org Release #5963 For Immediate Release 10:00 AM ET, Wednesday, August 2, 2017 Online
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A&S Prof 99,202 163 112,307-13,105-11.67 2,136,071 2,210,459 Asso 69,100 115 74,200-5,101-6.87 586,572 648,916 Asst 60,014 78 62,194-2,181-3.51 170,088 256,767 Total 80,892 356 89,017-8,126-9.13 2,892,731
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For further information: Carol Courter / Release #5931
News Release Follow The Conference Board For further information: Carol Courter 212-339-0232 / courter@conference-board.org Release #5931 For Immediate Release 10:00 AM ET, Wednesday, February 1, 2017
For further information: Carol Courter / Release #5862
News Release Follow The Conference Board For further information: Carol Courter 212-339-0232 / courter@conference-board.org Release #5862 For Immediate Release 10:00 AM ET, Wednesday, February 3, 2016