U.S. Hiring Trends Q1 2016

Transcription

1 U.S. Hiring Trends Q The New Reality for Entry-level Workers and Where in the U.S. Companies are Hiring

2 A foot in the door. Pounding the pavement. Our metaphors for finding a job emphasize the arduousness of the task and its chanciness. And these days, it s not getting any easier. Glance at a newsstand or your social media newsfeeds and you re bound to see stories of economic transition and dislocation. One of the most remarkable aspects of this phenomenon is it sits at odds with the headline numbers for the U.S. labor market. Job growth has been unusually steady for several years now normally, even during a robust expansion, there are one-off months when job gains go in reverse yet stories of economic insecurity are widespread. For some time now, there has been an unusual discrepancy between media narratives of the U.S. jobs market and some of the standard macroeconomic data, but this is not just a media myth. Step back even further to the broader picture of overall U.S. economic growth, and it has been substantially more modest than many recent economic expansions, fueling fears that the new normal in the U.S. economy will be lower and slower growth. How to explain the discrepancy? One possibility is that it is all about the demand side of the labor market, whereby it is simply a question of relatively low-quality jobs being created. For instance, Fed Chair Janet Yellen has been outspoken in calling attention to the relatively high number of workers accepting part-time work because they cannot find full-time jobs. A recent study by economists at Princeton and Harvard suggests that many of the jobs created since the Great Recession have provided less economic security than jobs created in the past because they provide only temporary, freelance, or otherwise alternative employment. icims system data adds another piece to this puzzle, showing negligible net progress over the last two years in the proportion of full-time jobs created relative to part-time or contract workers whose hours are not guaranteed. There is also the possibility that we are witnessing a shift in the supply side of the labor market. Some commentators have raised the possibility that job seekers and workers today, especially millennials, want something different out of their careers. Still others point to a potential skills gap not only that the nature of new jobs is changing, but that as labor force participation rises and discouraged workers are tempted back into the job search, their skills may have deteriorated. Naturally, it could be a little of both. The excess demand for internships evident from icims elevated talent supply/ demand ratio suggests a shortage of either internships or high-quality entry-level opportunities. While icims system data focuses on the demand side of the labor market, we have conducted a survey that shows high levels of willingness to accept alternative forms of employment on the supply side as well. All of this suggests that as people re-enter the labor force or enter it for the first time, they may or may not go straight to regular full-time jobs. - Josh Wright icims Chief Economist 2

3 Table of Contents The Big Picture Insights from Our Findings 4 Section 1: Is the Path to the American Dream Becoming Harder to Start? 5 Section 2: Increase Your Odds of Success The Best Cities to Find a Job in the U.S. 10 Methodology 12 About Us 13 3

4 The Big Picture Insights from Our Findings Job growth alone does not tell the full story of today s labor market. There is an ongoing conversation about the nature and quality of the jobs that the U.S. economy is creating. While concerns about job security have been rising for many years, more fundamental concerns have recently emerged, such as whether enough full-time jobs are being created. Data from icims system for tracking job applicants indicates that while job growth remains strong, full-time positions are not outpacing the creation of part-time and contractor work enough to meaningfully increase their share of total jobs created. Furthermore, icims system data appears to be consistent with an increased desire to seek internships as a first step to finding a job. This raises some new questions about today s labor market, especially for entry-level candidates. For anyone trying to find their way to a great job, or even a good one, it is important to consider not only alternative types of employment, but alternative locations. With that in mind, this report also provides indicators of which U.S. cities are seeing the most rapid growth in jobs. 4

5 Section 1: Is the Path to the American Dream Becoming Harder to Start? Millennials are entering the workforce at rapid rates and play a critical role in today s workplace. According to the Pew Research Center, more than one in three American workers today are millennials (adults ages 18 to 34). But do college seniors face the right opportunities after graduation to build a long-lasting career? Recent trends could be pointing to a lack of traditional entry-level, climb-to-the-top type of roles. With hidden weakness in the job market, today s entry-level workers might be forced to compromise their dream of landing that perfect job. Demand for Internships is High and Competition is Intense To investigate this further, we took a look at our system data and found that the talent supply/demand ratio, meaning the number of people applying per position, is much higher for internships than for full-time positions. As seen in Figure 1, in Q1 of 2016, internship positions had an average of about 37 applicants per job filled, while full-time positions had only 26 applicants per job filled. While we do not know what level of experience these full-time positions were hiring for, if recent graduates are realistic enough not to apply for senior-level positions, then this decrease in the ratio could indicate a shortage of entry-level opportunities for recent college graduates. Such a shortage could be depressing the number of applicants per full-time position if the number of applications submitted by people looking for their first job is larger than the number of applications submitted by people with previous work experience. In the beginning of each year since 2014, the number of applicants per internship position has consistently grown while the same ratio for full-time positions has declined. Figure 1: Talent Supply/Demand Ratio Full-Time Part-Time Contingent Intern 37.2 Applicants Per Job Filled Q Q Q Source: icims System Data 5

6 The Overall Job Market is Improving but Millennials Are Being Left Out in the Cold Increases in icims job postings, displayed in Figure 2, are consistent with the reported overall strong job growth in the U.S. Figure 3 displays the steady nonfarm payroll growth as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). With 66 straight months of positive nonfarm payroll growth through March 2016, this is the longest streak of monthly job gains since World War II. Figure 2: Monthly Job Postings 120, ,000 icims job postings show strong overall job growth continues in the U.S. 100,000 90,000 Job Postings 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 0 Dec 13 Mar 14 Jun 14 Sep 14 Dec 14 Mar 15 Jun 15 Sep 15 Dec 15 Mar 16 Source: icims System Data Month Year Figure 3: Unusually Steady Nonfarm Payroll Growth Nonfarm Payrolls 12-Month Moving Average of Nonfarm Payrolls 600, , , ,000 Thousands 200, , ,000 Official job gains have been unusually steady over the last few years. -200, , , Observation Date Source: BLS 6

7 However, entry-level workers may not be finding quality jobs. According to the BLS, the unemployment rate for people ages 20 to 24 was 8.4% in March 2016 compared to the national unemployment rate of 5%. As Brandee McHale, president of Citi Foundation, discovered, U.S. census data shows that 40 percent of the unemployed are millennials, implying at least 4.6 million young people are out of work. For the young workers who do find work, they may be working a job that is below their skill level, doesn t require a degree, or pays a low salary. According to the BLS as displayed in Figure 4, workers ages are earning a median weekly wage of $514, which roughly amounts to less than $25,000 a year. Figure 4: Median weekly earnings of full-time wage and salary workers Q Ages $514 Ages $859 Source: BLS Plan B: The Class of 2016 is Open to Taking Internships or Part-time Jobs after Graduation If there is a lack of entry-level full-time positions available, this could be forcing new college graduates to resort to plan B and find internship work that will hopefully lead to a full-time opportunity. According to a 2016 icims survey, 91 percent of college seniors said it was likely that they would accept a temporary full-time, paid internship, or contractor position with a company after graduation if they knew they could potentially receive a permanent job offer from the company. This data supports the conventional wisdom that many employers use internships as a recruitment program, using the positions as an extended tryout for a full-time job down the road. Instead of interviewing college seniors, companies may be hiring directly from their intern pools. According to a study by LinkedIn, the industry that hires the largest percentage of its interns was accounting, which converts 31 percent of its interns to full-time workers, followed by management consulting and computer software converting at a 25 percent and 24 percent, respectively. Almost All Employers Are Using Internships to Build Entry-level Talent Pools About 97 percent of recruiting professionals said they have offered entry-level employees temporary full-time, paid internships, or contractor positions with the potential to receive permanent job offers, and 86% said this is a frequent practice for their company. 7

8 OK, People are Applying to Internships but What About Availability? Full-time and part-time job postings are not growing as quickly as internship postings. As Figure 5a displays, the relative proportions for full-time positions versus other positions types have been stable once you strip out the effects of seasonal hiring. To the extent that U.S. job seekers have been struggling to find quality jobs, icims system data suggests that progress remains limited. More full-time positions are being created, but not quickly enough to increase their proportion relative to non-full-time positions. Figure 5b: Relative Share of Job Postings by Position Type, Q & Q Job Position Type Full-Time Part-Time Contingent Intern Unknown/Unspecified 2.3% 7.1% 8.7% Figure 5a: Relative Prevalence of Full-Time Positions 70% 16.5% Q % 68% 65.4% 67% 66% % of Total Postings 65% 64% 63% 1.8% 62% 8.4% 61% 7.5% 60% 2014 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q1 Quarter Source: icims System Data 16.6% Q Full-time job postings have remained consistent proportionately to other types of positions. 65.7% More full-time positions are being created, but not quickly enough to increase their proportion relative to non-full-time positions. Source: icims System Data 8

9 Plan C: The Gig Economy This new data is raising questions about whether college seniors will face the right job opportunities after graduation and what they can do about that. If college seniors aren t open to internships after graduation, a lack of entrylevel full-time positions could also persuade new college graduates to accept non-traditional jobs in the so-called gig economy. According to a 2014 study commissioned by the Freelancers Union, 53 million Americans are independent workers about 34 percent of the total workforce. A study from Intuit predicts that by 2020, 40 percent of U.S. workers will fall into this category. freelancers, and independent contractors. The share of Americans working these atypical jobs has increased from 10.1% a decade ago to 15.8% as of late Nearly 40% of people in these jobs have a bachelor s degree or higher. Figure 6: Share of U.S. Workers in Alternative Job Arrangements Over the Last 20 Years 20% 15% Additionally, new research from prominent labor economists Lawrence Katz and Alan Krueger argues that over the last 10 years the growth in employment has come from jobs that aren t what we typically think of as jobs. They are gigs which include on-call workers, temporary roles, 10% 5% 0% Source: Katz and Krueger (2016) People in alternative work arrangements are spread across many industries and occupations, as displayed in Figure 7. Public administration has seen the highest jump in percent of alternative workers, while the construction and business services industries were the two that most frequently relied on them. Figure 7: Proportion of Workers in Alternative Work Arrangements, by Industry 30 % % 20 % 15 % 10 % 5 % 0% Utilities Construction Mtg Wholesale Retail Transportation Information/Comms Finance, Insurance, & Real Estate Professional Bus. Education, Health Arts/Entertainment Other Services Public Administration Source: Lawrence Katz and Alan Krueger, The Rise and Nature of Alternative Work Arrangements in the United States, , March 29,

10 Section 2: Increase Your Odds of Success The Best Cities to Find a Job in the U.S. A New York State of Mind New York City Posted the Highest Number of Jobs, But Houston had the Highest Growth Rate Since Q These metro areas posted the highest number of job postings in Q1 of 2016, but how rapidly has their number of job postings grown since Q4 2015? Figures 8 and 9 list the cities in descending order of total Q1 job postings, but display their growth rates since the end of the year. In the accompanying maps, the size of the circles is proportional to the number of job postings in each metro area. Figure 8: The Top Ten U.S. Metro Areas for Job Postings U.S. Metro Areas with the Greatest Number of Job Postings and Their Growth Rates from Q to Q New York, NY +14.4% 6. Detroit, MI +33.3% 2. Phoenix, AZ +27.9% 7. Philadelphia, PA +12.4% 3. Dallas, TX +16.5% 8. Atlanta, GA +9.2% 4. Chicago, IL +32.4% 9. Los Angeles, CA +11.6% 5. Washington DC +8.2% 10. Houston, TX +33.7% Source: icims System Data 10

11 Looking for a Job in a Specific Region? These Cities May Be Your Best Bet. Figure 9: The Top Three Metro Areas in Each U.S. Region for Job Postings Metro Areas in Each U.S. Region with the Greatest Number of Job Postings and Their Growth Rates from Q to Q Mid-Atlantic Midwest Mountain-Plains Southwest 1. Washington DC +8.2% 1. Chicago, IL +32.4% 1. Denver, CO +33.6% 1. Dallas, TX +16.5% 2. Baltimore, MD +25.4% 2. Detroit, MI +33.3% 2. Salt Lake CIty, UT +27.9% 2. Houston, TX +33.7% 3. Philadelphia, PA +12.4% 3. Minneapolis, MN -0.1% 3. Kansas CIty, MO +56.7% 3. Austin, TX +28.7% New England New York - New Jersey Southeast Western 1. Boston, MA +15.3% 1. New York, NY +14.4% 1. Atlanta, GA +9.2% 1. Phoenix, AZ +27.9% 2. Worcester, MA -5.6% 2. Albany, NY +19.2% 2. Miami, FL +14.9% 2. Los Angeles, CA +11.6% 3. Providence, RI -3.9% 3. Syracuse, NY +30.8% 3. Tampa, FL -1.2% 3. Seattle, WA +22.9% Source: icims System Data 11

12 Methodology This report presents trends over the course of over two years from January 2014 through March 2016 in a sample drawn from icims customer base of more than 3,200 contracted customers. The data is generated automatically by user interactions with icims solutions. The main focus is on what we refer to as the talent supply/demand ratio and the total number of job postings by employers. The talent supply/demand ratios are presented as an average across the icims customer base. icims worked with a third-party data analyst firm, Hanover Research, to arrive at the data conclusions reflected within. 12

13 HIRING INSIGHTS About icims icims is the leading provider of talent acquisition solutions that help businesses win the war for top talent. icims empowers companies to manage their entire hiring process within the industry s most robust Platform-as-a-Service (PaaS). Built on the foundation of a best-to-market talent acquisition software suite, icims PaaS framework, UNIFi, allows employers to expand the capabilities of their core talent acquisition technology by integrating with the largest partner ecosystem in talent acquisition to help them attract, find, screen, and manage candidates. Offering scalable, easy-to-use solutions that are backed by awardwinning customer service, icims supports more than 3,200 contracted customers and is one of the largest and fastestgrowing talent acquisition solution providers About icims Hiring Insights icims Hiring Insights is a research house that focuses on labor market insights and recruitment trends. Our team of researchers and writers use icims exclusive data, proprietary, and secondary research to develop reports and articles that that cover the most recent developments in the workforce. Led by icims Chief Economist Josh Wright, icims Insights helps its readers stay well-informed on the latest recruitment, economic, and technology advancements. To learn more visit About icims Chief Economist: Josh Wright Josh Wright is Chief Economist at icims and oversees the organization s proprietary research. Prior to joining icims, Josh served as a U.S. economist with Bloomberg L.P., where he analyzed current macroeconomic trends and was a frequent guest contributor on Bloomberg Radio and Bloomberg TV. As Chief Economist at icims, Josh is responsible for analyzing proprietary data in order to produce fresh insights on emerging trends in the U.S. labor market. He contributes to the publishing of quarterly trends reports, as well as semi-annual reports and blog posts on ad hoc labor topics. In addition, Josh supports in the development of software that allows clients to analyze their own performance relative to industry benchmarks by collaborating with data scientists, software developers, and marketing executives. A former Federal Reserve staffer, Josh helped build the Fed s mortgage-backed securities (MBS) portfolio of more than $1 trillion, among other responses to the global financial crisis. As a researcher, he has published on labor and housing markets, as well as U.S. monetary policy, and advised policymakers across the legislative and executive branches of government. 13