Afghanistan Index. Tracking Variables of Reconstruction & Security in Post-9/11 Afghanistan

Transcription

1 Afghanistan Index Tracking Variables of Reconstruction & Security in Post-9/11 Afghanistan Ian S. Livingston, Heather L. Messera, and Michael O Hanlon February 28, 211 Brookings Tracks Reconstruction and Security in Afghanistan, Iraq and Pakistan Afghanistan Index» Iraq Index» Pakistan Index»

2 1 Security Indicators TABLE OF CONTENTS 1.1 American Troops Deployed to Afghanistan Other Foreign Troops Deployed to Afghanistan UPDATED Troops Committed to NATO s International Security Assistance Mission (ISAF) by Country UPDATED Total NATO-ISAF Manpower by Regional Command, Since October 26 UPDATED Size of Afghan Security Forces on Duty UPDATED Annual Growth of Afghan National Army (ANA), by Number of Troops, 23-Present UPDATED Afghan Army Units Partnered with NATO Units NEW Attrition Rates among Select Afghan National Security Forces UPDATED Afghan National Army Basic Rifle Marksmanship Qualification Afghan National Army (ANA) Leader Training Assessment Levels of Afghan National Security Forces Afghan National Army Force Structure Growth Total Number of Private DoD Contractors in Afghanistan, 27 through 21 UPDATED Number of Private Security Contractors in Afghanistan, 27 through 21 NEW Private Contractors Training the Afghan National Army U.S. Government Civilians in Afghanistan, August 28-Current Number of Insurgent Attacks per Week by Type, January 28-Current Security Forces in and Around Kandahar, 21 and 21 Projected U.S. Special Operations against Taliban, Summer Estimated Number of Assassinations in and Around Kandahar, 29 and U.S. and Coalition Troop Fatalities since October 7, 21 UPDATED Cause of Death for U.S. Troops UPDATED Non-US Coalition Troop Fatalities by Country since October 21 UPDATED Proportion of Annual U.S. and Coalition Fatalities by Various Causes UPDATED U.S. Troops Wounded in Action since October 7, 21 UPDATED Private Contractor Deaths in Afghanistan, 21 through 21 UPDATED Afghan National Army (ANA) and Afghan National Police (ANP) Personnel Fatalities, January 27-Present Estimated Monthly Violent Civilian Deaths in Afghanistan, 27 to Present Estimated Yearly Civilian Fatalities as Result of Fighting Between Pro-Government Forces and Armed Opposition Groups (AOG), Estimated Percentage of Afghan Civilian Fatalities by Group Which Caused, UPDATED Journalists Killed in Afghanistan Since Estimated Number of Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) Estimated Number of Afghan Refugees in the Region, by Location Afghan Refugees Voluntarily Repatriated by Country, Number of Afghan Asylum Applications, 21 through Comparison of Security and Overall Assessments of Key Districts, Number of U.S. Forward Operating Bases (FOBs) in Afghanistan Estimated Number of Al Qaeda Leaders and Fighters in Afghanistan and Pakistan Percentage of Close Air Support Sorties with Weapons Releases UPDATED Air Force Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance Missions during NEW Suicide Bombings in Afghanistan, 27 & Ethnic Composition of the Afghan National Army (ANA) Number of Mine Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) Vehicles in Afghanistan Number of Up Armored HMMWV s Issued to Afghan Army and Police UPDATED U.S. Departments of Defense and State Support to Train and Equip the Afghan Army and Police, Fiscal Years Appropriated U.S. Funding for Afghanistan Government and Development by Agency, FY 21-FY Indicators for Measuring Progress in Afghanistan, Developed by David Kilcullen 2 2

3 2 Governance and Rule of Law Indicators 2.1 Afghanistan Population and Demographic Information Size, Gender, and ethnic Makeup of Afghanistan s Main Legislative Bodies Prison Population in Afghanistan, Where Afghans Choose to Take Different Types of Legal Cases Highest Level Degree Acquired by Judges Responding to a Random Survey Access to Legal Resources for Judges Responding to a Random Survey Judges in Kandahar Province Annual Poppy Cultivation in Afghanistan (ha) and Percentage of Global, Annual Opium Production in Afghanistan (mt) and Percentage of Global, Opium Poppy Cultivation Levels in Afghanistan (with Top-Producing Provinces), Monthly Farm-Gate Cost of Dry Opium Since September 24 (US$/KG) Afghanistan s Rank in Reporters Without Borders Index of Press Freedom, Afghanistan s Rank in Transparency International s Annual Corruption Perceptions Index 26 3 Economic and Quality of Life Indicators 3.1 Annual Inflation Nominal GDP (Total and Growth), GDP Growth and Sector Contributions to Growth, Annual Production of Major Agricultural Produce, by Planting Season Value of Exported Afghan Agricultural Produce, Breakdown of Afghan Annual Budget (Core vs. External), FY 25/26 thru 28/ Pay Charts for Afghan National Security Forces Pay Charts for Individuals in the Afghan Legal System Deposits in Commercial Banks in Afghanistan, 28 and Comparison of Electricity Supply Sources and Capacity: 1979, 22, 27 and Estimated Number of Telephone Users in Afghanistan by Year, Estimated Percentage of Afghans with Access to Water/Sanitation Facilities Education Metrics Poverty Levels, Foreign Aid Pledged and Disbursed, UPDATED Aid Disbursements from Government Donors and Multilateral Agencies NEW Aid Channeled Through UN Agencies, International and Local NGOs, ICRC, and the Red Cross/Red Crescent Societies, NEW Annual Value of Imports and Exports, with Top Trade Partners, Microfinance Clients, Borrowers and Loan Amounts Healthcare Metrics 35 4 Polling and Public Opinion Afghanistan: Where Things Stand (ABC News/BBC/ARD) Afghanistan in 21: A Survey of the Afghan People (Asia Foundation) Afghanistan Public Opinion Survey (International Republican Institute) 4 5 Afghanistan Research 5.1 Additional Sources of Information on Afghanistan 43 For more information please contact Ian Livingston at ilivingston@brookings.edu 3

4 FIGURE 1.1 American Troops Deployed To Afghanistan 1 Note on the Methodology of the Afghanistan Index: Although the footnotes to the Afghanistan Index document our sources in detail, it is worth noting here a few broad points. The majority of our information comes from the U.S. Government, though we must often analyze it and process it further to show trends over the full period since 21. Some information comes from foreign journalists on the ground and from nongovernmental organizations; a very modest amount to date comes from Afghan sources. Most tables and charts are straightforward representations of data as we obtain it from the above primary sources, with only modest further analysis and processing required. However, a few graphics, such as those on crime and unemployment rates, require more methodological work (and more assumptions) on our part and are as a result also perhaps somewhat less precise than most of the tables and charts. 1. SECURITY INDICATORS 1, 1, 8, 68, 6, 4, 3,858 2, 9,5 12, 15,8 17,4 2,4 24,7 1,3 Nov-1 Jan-2 Mar Sep Nov Jan-3 Mar Sep Nov Jan-4 Mar Sep Nov Jan-5 Mar Sep Nov NOTE: As of December 21 there were roughly 1, U.S. troops in Afghanistan. These figures include troops under ISAF and Operation Enduring Freedom. For a full order of battle, please see: Jan-6 Mar Sep Nov Jan-7 Mar Sep Nov Jan-8 Mar Sep Nov Jan-9 Mar Sep Nov Jan-1 Mar Sep Nov FIGURE 1.2 Other Foreign Troops Deployed To Afghanistan 2 Month Number Month Number Month Number February 22 5, 26 9, November 31,15 March 5, June 9,7 December 31,4 April 5, August 15, January 29 31,88 4,5 September 18, February 31,52 June 5, October 2, March 32,14 September 4,7 November 21, April 32,175 April 23 5, December 21, June 32,28 September 5, January 27 21,46 34,55 April 24 5,5 March 21,75 October 36,23 June 6, April 21,75 December 38,37 August 6,5 24, February 21 38,71 September 8, 24,25 March 38,89 October 1, September 26,43 April 4,139 November 9,4 October 3,177 June 41,7 December 8,5 December 26,73 41,315 January 25 9, February 28 28,25 August 41,389 February 8, April 28, October 4,432 June 8, June 29,35 November 4,93 August 1,5 September 29,81 December 41,73 December 9, October 3,1 February ,893 NOTE: Approximately 6% of the additionally pledged NATO and partner troops are in place, more will arrive in the coming months. 3 4

5 FIGURE 1.3 Troops Committed to NATO s International Security Assistance Forces (ISAF) By Country 4 AS OF: February 3, 211 1Turkey recognizes the Republic of Macedonia with its constitutional name 2 Snapshot figure that includes overlapping rotations. NOTE: The total foreign troop presence also includes about 3, (mainly American) troops organized under Operation Enduring Freedom. FIGURE 1.4 Total NATO-ISAF Manpower by Regional Command (RC), Since October , 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, CAPITAL EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH 2, 1, Oct-6 Dec-6 Feb-7 Apr-7 Jun-7 Aug-7 Oct-7 Dec-7 Feb-8 Apr-8 Jun-8 Aug-8 Oct-8 Dec-8 5 Feb-9 Apr-9 Jun-9 Aug-9 Oct-9 Dec-9 Feb-1 Apr-1 Jun-1 Aug-1 Oct-1 Dec-1 NOTE: Data points represent months for which a precise estimate is available. As the figures for a given month provide a snapshot assessment, they should be considered approximations. Figures do not reflect U.S. troops that are part of Operation Enduring Freedom.

6 FIGURE 1.5 Size of Afghan Security Forces on Duty 6 Month Ministry of Defense Ministry of Interior Total Afghan Forces Forces Security Forces End 23 6, 6, End 24 24, 33, 57, End 25 26, 4, 66, End 26 36, 49,7 86, End 27 5, 75, 125, April 28 57,8 79,91 137,71 October 28 68, 79,91 147,91 March 29 82,78 79,91 162, ,9 81,2 172,92 November 29 95, 95, 19, December 29 1,131 94, ,89 March , 12, 215, April/ ,388 14, ,847 August , 19, 243, September ,164 12,54 258,668 October , ,367* 261,5 December , , ,389 Jan/Feb , 118,8 27,8 *revised reporting FIGURE 1.6 Annual Growth of Afghan National Army (ANA), By Number of Troops, 23-Present 7 16, 149, , 14, 12, 1, 1,131 8, 79,68 6, 5, 4, 36, 24, 26, 2, 6, * NOTE: Figures for are as of year end. The goal for 211 is to reach 171, ANA soldiers. *211 is through the end of January. FIGURE 1.7 Afghan Army Units Partnered with NATO Units % % 1% 7% 6

7 FIGURE 1.8 Attrition Rates among Selected Afghan National Security Forces 9 12% 1% ANA AUP ABP ANCOP 8% 6% 4% 2% % Nov-9 Dec-9 Jan-1 Feb-1 Mar-1 Apr-1-1 Jun-1 Jul-1 Aug-1 Sep-1 Oct-1 Nov-1 Dec-1 Goal (monthly) NOTE: In a briefing by Lt. Gen. William Caldwell on August 23, 21, annual attrition rates of 23% for the Afghan National Army (ANA) and 16% for the Afghan National Police (ANP) were announced. In the month prior to the briefing, annual attrition rates of 47% were reported among the civil order police, which now number 5,7 and is expected to grow to 18,5 by Oct. 31, 211. As of September 21, less than half of ANA units have been assessed. FIGURE 1.9 Afghan National Army Basic Rifle Marksmanship Qualification 1 November November 21 (Goal) 35% 97% 95% FIGURE 1.1 Afghan National Army (ANA) Leader Training 11 2, 18, 18,35 16, 14, 12, 1, , 7,2 6, 4,776 4, 2, 2,1 Officers Course Graduates Non Commissioned Officer Graduates 7

8 FIGURE 1.11 Assessment Levels of Afghan National Security Forces 12 ANA Army Kandaks -1 Jun-1 Aug-1 Sep-1 Commando Kandaks -1 Jun-1 Aug-1 Sep-1 Independent Independent Effective w/advisors Effective w/advisors Effective w/assistance Effective w/assistance Dependent* Dependent* Ineffective 5 5 Ineffective 1 New 4 1 Ineffective Unassessed Unassessed ANP ANCOP Kandaks -1 Jun-1 Aug-1 Sep-1 AUP Districts/Precincts -1 Jun-1 Aug-1 Sep-1 Independent Independent 4 5 Effective w/advisors 3 5 Effective w/advisors Effective w/assistance 2 3 Effective w/assistance Dependent* Dependent* Ineffective Ineffective Unassessed ABP Kandaks -1 Jun-1 Aug-1 Sep-1 Independent Effective w/advisors Effective w/assistance Dependent* Ineffective 2 Unassessed NOTE: These assessments do not currently cover all units. As an example, less than half of all units in the ANA have been assessed. The effective w/ assistance category includes units with different levels of readiness. *Units that are totally dependent on coalition forces partnering for missions. FIGURE 1.12 Afghan National Army Force Structure Growth Command Maneuver Combat Support Combat Service Support Nov-9 Aug-1 Nov-11 (Goal) NOTE: Units are battalion sized. 8

9 FIGURE 1.13 Number of Private Defense Department Contractors in Afghanistan, 27 through Year Private Contractors 27 38, 28 71, 29 17, 21 88, NOTE: Employed by U.S. companies, but not necessarily Americans. These figures only count those employed by the U.S. Department of Defense. All figures are year end. FIGURE 1.14 Number of Private Security Contractors in Afghanistan, 27 through , 18, 16, All Local Nationals 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Sep- 7 Dec- 7 Mar- 8 Jun- 8 Sep- 8 Dec- 8 Mar- 9 Jun- 9 Sep- 9 Dec- 9 Mar- 1 Jun- 1 Sep- 1 Dec- 1 FIGURE 1.15 Private Contractors Training the Afghan Army 16 Month Contractors March 21 2, NOTE: When contractors training the Afghan Defense and Interior ministries are counted, the total number is 2,765. FIGURE 1.16 U.S. Government Civilians in Afghanistan, August 28-Current Aug-8 Oct-8 Dec-8 Feb-9 Apr-9 Jun-9 Aug-9 Oct-9 Dec-9 Feb-1 Apr-1 Jun-1 Aug-1 Number of U.S. Civilian Field Personnel by Region as of 21 North East South West

10 FIGURE 1.17 Number of Insurgent Attacks and Type by Week, January 28-Current 18 NOTE: For a graph of 24 through early 21 please see versions of the Afghanistan Index prior to November 21. FIGURE 1.18 Security Forces in and Around Kandahar, 21 and 21 Projected 19 Security Force Current ( 21) Projected ( 21) ISAF 6,9 11,85 ANSF 5,3 8,5 Force Total 12,2 2,35 FIGURE 1.19 U.S. Special Operations against Taliban, Summer 21 2 Insurgent leaders killed or captured 235 Rank-and-file insurgents killed 1,66 Rank-and-file insurgents captured 1,673 NOTE: Operations conducted in a 9-day period ending early September 21. In a previous period ending mid-august, 11,587 Afghan civilians received medical humanitarian (unrelated to operations) treatment during similar operations. Nearly 4, missions were conducted between and August 21, the highest tempo of the war. FIGURE 1.2 Estimated Number of Assassinations in and Around Kandahar, 29 and Year Number of Incidents 29 >1 per month 21 >5 per month NOTE: In the first four months of 28, 29 and 21 there were 6, 15 and 27 assassinations respectively. 1

11 FIGURE 1.21 U.S. and Coalition Troop Fatalities since October 7, Non-U.S. U.S Oct 21 Jan 22 April October Jan 23 April October Jan 24 April October Jan 25 April October Jan 26 April October Jan 27 April October Jan 28 April October Jan 29 April October Jan 21 April October Jan 211 NOTE: Due to data reporting, this graph and the breakdowns below include some fatalities from outside Afghanistan, mainly in the Philippines, Pakistan, and other countries associated with Operation Enduring Freedom. In most months, there are no fatalities in locations outside Afghanistan. As of December 1, 21 there have been at least 1,333 U.S. fatalities attributed directly to fighting in Afghanistan. Indicates the start of a new calendar year Total from October 7, 21 through February 28, 211: ALL FATALITIES HOSTILE NON-HOSTILE U.S. 1,479 1, Non-U.S TOTAL 2,338 1, FIGURE 1.22 Cause of Death for U.S. Troops, By Year 23 Year Improvised Explosive Device Suicide Bombs Mortars/RPG s/ Rockets Landmine 11 Helicopter Losses* Aircraft Losses* Other Hostile Fire Non- Hostile Causes* 21 (%) (%) (%) (%) 2 (16.7%) (%) 4 (33.3%) 6 (5.%) (1.2%) (%) 1 (2.%) 1 (2.%) 4 (8.2%) 18 (36.7%) 12 (24.5%) 8 (16.3%) (2.1%) (%) (%) (%) 19 (39.6%) (%) 12 (25.%) 16 (33.3%) (23.1%) (%) 1 (1.9%) 1 (1.9%) 2 (3.8%) 3 (5.8%) 1 (19.2%) 23 (44.2%) (18.2%) (%) 2 (2.%) 5 (5.1%) 36 (36.4%) 1 (1.%) 2 (2.2%) 17 (17.2%) (27.6%) 3 (3.1%) 1 (1.%) 1 (1.%) 21 (21.4%) (%) 33 (33.7%) 12 (12.2%) (28.2%) 1 (.9%) 9 (7.7%) 1 (.9%) 13 (11.1%) (%) 35 (29.9%) 25 (21.4%) (54.2%) 4 (2.6%) 7 (4.5%) 2 (1.3%) 2 (1.3%) (%) 36 (23.2%) 2 (12.9%) (45.5%) 8 (2.6%) 21 (6.7%) (%) 13 (4.2%) 2 (.6%) 91 (29.1%) 35 (11.2%) 312* (51.5%) 8 (1.6%) 16 (3.2%) (%) 2 (4.%) (%) 164 (32.9%) 34 (6.8%) (63.2%) (%) 1 (2.6%) (%) (%) (%) 7 (18.4%) 6 (15.8%) 38 Total 63 (4.8%) 24 (1.6%) 59 (4.%) 11 (.7%) 132 (8.9 %) 24 (1.6%) 424 (28.7%) 22 (13.7%) Through February 28, 211 *Helicopter and aircraft losses include deaths caused by both non-hostile accidents and those downed by hostile fire. The Non-Hostile Causes data then does not include non-hostile helicopter or aircraft losses. 29 numbers do not include U.S. intelligence officials killed in a suicide bombing in December. For detailed demographic information including gender, race and military component, please see Operation Enduring Freedom Military Deaths at: Total 1479

12 FIGURE 1.23 Non-U.S. Coalition Troop Fatalities by Country since October United Kingdom Canada France Germany Denmark Italy Spain Netherlands Poland Australia Romania Norway Estonia Georgia Sweden Hungary Czech Republic Latvia Portugal Finland New Zealand Turkey Lithuania South Korea Belgium Total through February 28, 211: 859 FIGURE 1.24 Proportion of Annual U.S. and Coalition Fatalities by Various Causes 25 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Jordan IED* Other Hostile Other Explosives Non-Hostile Incidents 3 *Improvised Explosive Device Figures Updated Thru: February 28, 211 NOTE: Figures depicted on the graph illustrate the raw number of such fatalities in a given year. Percentages are calculated based on overall totals for each respective year. Other Explosives includes hostile attacks carried out with rockets, grenades and/or mortars. Fatalities from downed aircraft and helicopters are classified under either Other Hostile or Non-Hostile Incidents depending on whether they were shot down or crashed due to mechanical failure. 12

13 FIGURE 1.25 U.S. Troops Wounded In Action since October 3, October 21 January April October January 23 April October January 24 April October January April October January 26 April October January 27 Total from October 7, 21 through February 28, 211: 1,47 12 April October January 28 April October January 29 April October January 21 April October January 211 The daily Department of Defense casualty reports that we use for our monthly estimates on U.S troops wounded does not make it entirely clear when in a 24- hour period casualties were incurred. Since the reports are published at 1AM daily, there is possibility that our numbers for January 25 and onwards are slightly off due to uncertainties about whether casualties occurred on the first or the last of each month. FIGURE 1.26 Private Contractor Deaths in Afghanistan, 21 through NOTE: Numbers correspond to insurance claims received by the U.S. Labor Department. There have been a total of 594 claims since September 1, 21 (the beginning of the reporting period). Numbers correspond to new claims during the period, the deaths may have occurred in a prior period. 13

14 FIGURE 1.27 Afghan National Army (ANA) and Afghan National Police (ANP) Personnel Fatalities, January ANP ANA January 27 March September November January 28 March September November January 29 March ANNUAL TOTALS * ANA ANP September November NOTE: Figures from 27 through mid-29 provided by NATO-ISAF and differ from those published in a January 29 report released by the U.S. Department of Defense. This report estimated 332 ANA fatalities and 692 ANP fatalities for 27, with 28 figures shown only through October 28. Graphical numbers for the second half of 29 are estimated based on information from several sources. *21 numbers are through August. FIGURE 1.28 Estimated Monthly Violent Civilian Deaths in Afghanistan, 27 to Present Jan 27 Mar Jul Sep Nov Jan 28 Mar Jul Sep Nov Jan 29 Mar Jul Sep Nov Jan 21 March NOTE: Estimates of civilian fatalities in Afghanistan vary widely. Monthly data from the U.S. Department of Defense does not necessarily match that provided by the United Nations below. 14

15 FIGURE 1.29 Estimated Yearly Civilian Fatalities as Result of Fighting Between Pro-Government Forces and Armed Opposition Groups (AOG), Non-Attributable AOG Pro-Government * *21 figures are through June and cover only half a year. FIGURE 1.3 Estimated Percentage of Afghan Civilian Fatalities by Group Which Caused, % 75.2% 76.% 7.% 6.% 58.2% 58.4% 54.8% 5.% 4.% 39.1% Pro-Government Anti-Government Non-Attributable 3.% 24.8% 26.6% 24.% 2.% 15.2% 18.% 12.% 12.% 1.% 6.1%.% * NOTE: 21 numbers are through October. 15

16 FIGURE 1.31 Journalists Killed in Afghanistan Since Year Killed Year Killed * NOTE: 22 journalists have been killed in Afghanistan "motive confirmed" since the Committee to Protect Journalists began tracking. For comparable information on Pakistan, see the Pakistan Index. *One media worker was also killed in 27, not included in the number above. FIGURE 1.32 Estimated Number of Internally Displaced Persons in Afghanistan (IDPs) , October ,945 March , FIGURE 1.33 Estimated Number of Afghan Refugees in the Region, by Location 34 AS OF: March 28 COUNTRY NUMBER OF REFUGEES Pakistan 2,, Iran 91, Other 9, TOTAL 3,, FIGURE 1.34 Afghan Refugees Voluntarily Repatriated by Country, ,6 5. 1, ,2 Returnees Per Year (thousands) 1, Total Number of Returnees (millions) Pakistan Iran Cumulative *Through September *. 16

17 FIGURE 1.35 Number of Afghan Asylum Applications, 21 through , 52,485 5, 4, 3, 25,446 26,796 2, 18,434 17, 14,217 1, 8,835 7,723 8,648 9, * NOTE: In each year, several countries reported a range of 1-4 individual rather than an actual number. These countries were not included in the totals above, but are insignificant as far as trends go. *For 21, the number is through September and is an estimate based off a graphical representation in the Washington Post. FIGURE 1.36 Comparison of Security and Overall Assessments of Key Districts 37 Security Assessment Categories December 29 March September 21 Secure environment Occasional threats Frequent threats Dangerous environment Unsecured environment Not assessed Overall Assessment Categories December 29 March 21 Population supports government Population sympathetic to government Population neutral Population sympathetic to insurgents 26 4 Population supports insurgents 7 8 Not assessed 28 NOTE: In December 29 and March 21 there were 8 Key Districts and 41 Areas of Interest Districts. As of end 21, there were 124 key districts. Districts added after the original Operation OMID base order were Marjah, Dand and Taghab. FIGURE 1.37 Number of U.S. Forward Operating Bases (FOBs) in Afghanistan 38 January 21 >18 FIGURE 1.38 Estimated Number of Al Qaeda Leaders and Fighters in Afghanistan and Pakistan 39 NOTE: As of summer 21. Afghanistan 5-1 Pakistan ~3 17

18 FIGURE 1.39 Percentage of Close Air Support Sorties with Weapons Releases 4 Close Air Support Sorties/CAS Sorties with Weapons Releases 35, 3, 25, 26,474 29,948 Sorties 2, 15, 13,962 19,92 CAS Sort ies CAS w/weapons Release 1, 5, 5,198 5,51 4,184 4, Year FIGURE 1.4 Air Force Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance Missions in Afghanistan during ,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Jan 29 Mar Jul Sep Nov Jan 21 Mar Jul Sep FIGURE 1.41 Suicide Bombings in Afghanistan, 27 & No. of Attacks Killed ~

19 FIGURE 1.42 Ethnic Composition of the Afghan National Army (ANA) 43 Pashtun Tajik Hazara Uzbek Others Officer 42% 41% 8% 4% 5% Non commissioned officer 46% 36% 1% 4% 3% Soldier 38% 31% 14% 1% 7% Total Force 41% 34% 12% 8% 5% NOTE: The Afghan Ministry of Defense ensures that the ANA is ethnically balanced at the kandak (battalion) level so that the force represents the nation. Numbers as of April 21 FIGURE 1.43 Number of Mine Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) Vehicles in Afghanistan < 3, 21 ~ 9,4 FIGURE 1.44 Number of Up Armored HMMWV s Issued to Afghan Army and Police UAH s to ANA 1,658 UAH s to ANP 1,73 FIGURE 1.45 U.S. Departments of Defense and State Support to Train and Equip the Afghan Army and Police, Fiscal Years (Dollars In Millions) 45 6, 5, 4,872 4, 4,43 $ (millions) 3, 2,523 ANA ANP 2, 1,633 1,778 1,512 1,217 1, NOTE: FY 28 figures reflect requested funds. Annual totals rounded to the nearest million. TOTAL AID (FY 22-29): ANA $14,228,,; ANP: $7,24,, 19

20 FIGURE 1.46 Appropriated U.S. Funding For Afghanistan Government and Development by Agency, FY 21-FY $9,. $8,. $7,. $ Millions $6,. $5,. $4,. $3,. DoD State USAID USDA Treasury Oversight and Operations Other $2,. $1,. $. FY 21 FY 22 FY 23 FY 24 FY 25 FY 26 FY 27 FY 28 FY 29 FY 21 DoD $. $. $165. $396.8 $1,895.5 $2,231.2 $7,96.4 $3,428. $6,387.7 $7,562.8 State $45.9 $285.6 $297.4 $784.5 $1,27.7 $287.7 $343.2 $38. $137. $555.9 USAID $42. $515.3 $477.8 $1,162. $1,379.4 $761.9 $1,538.3 $1,841.4 $2,247.6 $2,156.9 USDA $14.3 $46.5 $28.4 $49.8 $4.1 $48.3 $9.5 $42.2 $17.8 $. Treasury $. $.5 $1.4 $.8 $.7 $.6 $1.3 $.8 $2. $1.4 Oversight and Operations $. $155.6 $35.3 $27.6 $136.1 $131.9 $21.3 $448.7 $1,73.5 $1,321.9 Other $.4 $.6 $2.9 $3.7 $16.8 $23.7 $2.4 $5.5 $18.8 $. NOTE: Numbers affected by rounding. As of December 31, 29 approximately $51.1 billion had been appropriated since FY 22. FIGURE 1.47 Indicators for Measuring Progress in Afghanistan, Developed by David Kilcullen 47 Population-related Host Nation Security Force Enemy Voluntary reporting IEDs reported versus IEDs found Price of exotic vegetables Transportation prices Progress of NGO construction projects Influence of Taliban versus government courts Participation rate in programs Taxation collection Afghan-on-Afghan violence Rate of new business formation and loan repayment Urban construction new-start rate Percentage of local people with secure title to their house and land Assassination and kidnapping rate Civilian accessibility Where local officials sleep Officials business interests Percentage of officials purchasing their positions Budget executions Capital Flight Rate of anti-insurgent lashkar formation Public safety function Kill ratio Win/loss ratio Kill versus wound/capture ratio Detainee guilt ratio Recruitment versus desertion rates Proportion of ghost employees Location at start of firefight EOF incidents and CIVCAS Duration of operations Small-unit operations Combined action operations Dismounted operations Driving technique Reliance on air and artillery support Pattern-setting and telegraphing moves to the enemy Possession of high ground at dawn High-technology inserts Insurgent medical health Presence of specialist teams and foreign advisors Insurgent village-oforigin First-to-fire ratio Price of black-market weapons and ammunition Insurgent kill/capture versus surrender ratio Mid-level insurgent casualties 2

21 2. GOVERNANCE & RULE OF LAW INDICATORS FIGURE 2.1 Afghanistan Population and Demographic Information 48 TOTAL MALE FEMALE POPULATION (millions) 32.7 (51%) (49%) ETHNICITY Pashtun 13.7 (42%) Tajik 8.8 (27%) Hazara 2.9 (9%) Uzbek 2.9 (9%) Aimak 1.3 (4%) Turkmen 1. (3%) Baloch.7 (2%) Other 1.3 (4%) FIGURE 2.2 Size, Gender, And Ethnic Makeup of Afghanistan s Main Legislative Bodies 49 Wolesi Jirga (House of the People) TOTAL SEATS MEN WOMEN GENDER (73%) 68 (27%) ETHNICITY Pashtun 118 (47%) Tajik 53 (21%) Hazara 3 (12%) Uzbek/Turkmen 25 (1%) Non-Hazara Shi a 11 (4%) Arab 5 (2%) Ismaili 3 (1%) Pashai 2 (<1%) Baluchi 1 (<1%) Nuristani 1 (<1%) NOTE: The Wolesi Jirga consists of directly elected provincial representatives. The number of representatives each of Afghanistan s 34 provinces receives is calculated according to population. The Wolesi Jirga constitutes the first step in passing legislation, with all bills passing with two-thirds majority being forwarded to the Meshrano Jirga (House of Elders) and then the President. The Wolesi Jirga also has final say on the appointment of government ministers and other high-ranking officials. Meshrano Jirga (House of Elders) TOTAL SEATS MEN WOMEN GENDER (75%) 26 (25%) ETHNICITY Pashtun 36 (35%) Tajik 32 (31%) Hazara 16 (16%) Uzbek/Turkmen 8 (8%) Baluchi 3 (3%) Nuristani 3 (3%) Others 4 (3%) NOTE: Two-thirds of the Meshrano Jirga is indirectly elected by the Provincial and District Councils while the remaining third is appointed directly by the President. Provincial Councils (34 total, one for each Province) TOTAL SEATS MEN WOMEN GENDER (7%) 124 (3%) NOTE: Provincial Councils consist of between 9 and 29 directly elected representatives, based on the population of the Province. 21

22 FIGURE 2.3 Prison Population in Afghanistan, , 18, 18, 16, 15,666 14, 12, 11,78 12,379 1, 9,15 8, 7,2 6, 4,6 4, 2, NOTE: Numbers are through September in all years except for 29 where numbers are through December. 21 is as of. In addition to the detainees in Afghan custody noted above, there were 1, detainees under U.S. custody as of 21. FIGURE 2.4 Where Afghans Choose To Take Different Types of Legal Cases 51 Dispute Over Land 55% 38% 7% Other Property Dispute 4% 43% 17% Commercial Dispute 5% 32% 18% Divorce Pick-pocketing 53% 62% 3% 27% 17% 11% State Court Shura/Jirga Other Community Forum Robbery/Burglary 58% 26% 16% Physical Assault 5% 32% 18% Murder 82% 12% 6% % 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 1% NOTE: Results based on survey of approximately 6,2 Afghans polled in February 27. Answers refer to a hypothetical situation and not actual events. 22

23 FIGURE 2.5 Highest Level Degree Acquired By Judges Responding To a Random Survey 52 5% 45% 44.% 4% 35% 3% 25% 2% 2.5% 16.1% 15% 11.6% 1% 7.7% 5% % University (Shariat) University (Law) Other University Non University (Madrassa or Equivalent) Non University (Primary/Secondary) NOTE: Results based on a 26 random survey of 157 judges, of whom 17 work with the Supreme Court, 48 on Provincial Appeals Courts and 92 on Urban or District Primary Courts. Shariat refers to a degree received from an Islamic Law faculty. Madrassas are schools below the university level whose curriculum focuses mostly on traditional Islamic scholarship. FIGURE 2.6 Access to Legal Resources for Judges Responding To a Random Survey 53 ACCESS YES NO Statutes or other governmental regulations 63.7% 36.3% Textbooks on the law 45.2% 54.8% Written decisions of the Supreme Court 17.2% 82.8% Professional support from an experienced mentor 19.1% 8.9% NOTE: Results based on a 26 random survey of 157 judges, of whom 17 work with the Supreme Court, 48 on Provincial Appeals Courts and 92 on Urban or District Primary Courts FIGURE 2.7 Judges in Kandahar Province 54 Year Judges NOTE: These numbers are estimates based on ISAF data as of 21. Estimated total need is at least 5 judges. 23

24 FIGURE 2.8 Annual Poppy Cultivation in Afghanistan (Hectares) and Percentage of Global Cultivation, % 93% 93% 1% % 42% 51% 48% 3,416 61% 52% 89% 8,2 89% 87% 7,7 79% 75% 75% 6,9 7% 6,1 62% 58% 52% 4,565 4,2 4,1 3,4 3,6 3,6 3,276 2,84 2,693 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% Metric Tons % Global Production 2 2,33 1,981,97 1, ,335 2, % FIGURE 2.9 Annual Opium Production in Afghanistan (Metric Tons) and Percentage of Global Production, % 1% % 9% 82% 82% 79% 8% 2 67% 69% 68% 7% 6% % 37% 47% 41% 193 5% 4% Hectares ('s) % Global Cultivation 5 18% 16% 26% 27% 21% 22% 22% 23% 19% % % 2% 1% % 24

25 FIGURE 2.1 Opium Poppy Cultivation Levels in Afghanistan (With Top-Producing Provinces), (Hectares) 57 2, 18, 16, 14, Hectares 12, 1, 8, , 4, 2, All Afghanistan Helmand Farah Kandahar Nangarhar FIGURE 2.11 Monthly Farm-Gate Price for Dry Opium since September 24 (US$/Kg) US$ per Kilogram September 24 November January 25 Through: JUNE 21 March September November January 26 March September November January 27 March September 25 November January 28 March September November January 29 March September November January 21 March

26 FIGURE 2.12 Afghanistan s Rank in Reporters without Borders Index of Press Freedom, YEAR SCORE RANK NUMBER OF COUNTRIES SURVEYED NOTE ON INDEX OF PRESS FREEDOM TABLE: The Index is based on a questionnaire with 5 criteria for assessing the state of press freedom in each country. It includes every kind of violation directly affecting journalists (such as murders, imprisonment, physical attacks and threats) and news media (censorship, confiscation issues, searches and harassment). In addition to taking into account abuses attributable to the state, those carried out by armed militias, clandestine organizations or pressure groups are also considered. The lower the score attained, the higher the degree of press freedom in that respective country. Although there is no specific information given regarding how the overall score was compiled, the top-rated countries for 27 received an overall score of.75, with the median receiving a score of The overall average score for the 27 Index was FIGURE 2.13 Afghanistan s Rank in Transparency International s Annual Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) 6 YEAR RANK NUMBER OF COUNTRIES SURVEYED (T) (T) NO DATA (T) 159 (T): Indicates years Afghanistan s score tied with one or more other country. NOTE: The CPI is a composite index that draws on 14 expert opinion surveys. It scores countries on a scale from zero to ten, with zero indicating high levels of perceived corruption and ten indicating low levels of perceived corruption. Due to a lack of reliable data, Afghanistan was not included in the CPI survey for the years

27 3. ECONOMIC & QUALITY OF LIFE INDICATORS FIGURE 3.1 Annual Inflation FORECAST FIGURE 3.2 Nominal GDP (Total and Growth), 22/23-21/ TOTAL ($US billions) GROWTH (% change YOY) 22/3 23/4 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1* 21/11* % 8.8% 16.1% 8.2% 14.2% 3.4% 22.5% 8.6% *Data based partly on estimates and projections. FIGURE 3.3 GDP Growth and Sector Contributions to Growth, % Industry Services Agriculture GDP Growth NOTE: Data for 27 are estimated. 27

28 FIGURE 3.4 Annual Production of Major Agricultural Produce, by Planting Season 's Metric Tons 4 3 Wheat Potatoes Grapes Corn Barley Rice, Milled 2 1 2/1 21/2 22/3 23/4 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 FIGURE 3.5 Value of Exported Afghan Agricultural Produce, Thousands $US

29 FIGURE 3.6 Breakdown of Afghan Annual Budget (Core vs. External), FY 25/26 thru FY 28/ $ US (billions) 4 3 Core Budget External Budget Total Budget /26 26/27 27/28 28/29 NOTE: The Afghan government has direct control of the Core Budget, while having only limited or no control over the External Budget. FIGURE 3.7 Pay Charts for Afghan National Security Forces 67 Afghan National Security Forces NOTE: All salary numbers above are in U.S. $ per month. Figures as of 21. Combat Plans Division (CPD) Forces NOTE: All salary numbers above are in U.S. $ per month. Figures as of

30 FIGURE 3.8 Pay Charts for Individuals in the Afghan Legal System 68 Supreme Court NOTE: All salary numbers above are in U.S. $ per month. Figures as of 21. Ministry of Justice Legal Aid Department NOTE: All salary numbers above are in U.S. $ per month. Figures as of 21. Attorney General Prosecutor NOTE: All salary numbers above are in U.S. $ per month. Figures as of 21. FIGURE 3.9 Deposits in Commercial Banks in Afghanistan, 28 and Year (Ending March) Total Deposited 28 $1.18 billion 29 $2.28 billion NOTE: Deposit value listed in U.S. dollars. 3

31 FIGURE 3.1 Comparison of Electricity Supply Sources and Capacity: 1979, 22, 27 and 29 7 YEAR HYDRO (MW) THERMAL IMPORTED OTHER* (MW) TOTAL CAPACITY (MW) (MW) (MW) n/a n/a n/a n/a *Includes diesel, micro-hydro and renewable NOTE: As of September 29, it is estimated that 15 percent of households in urban centers have access to electricity and 6 percent in rural locations have access. Operational capacity was 6 percent of installed total capacity at last report. FIGURE 3.11 Estimated Number of Telephone Users in Afghanistan by Year, ,, 12,, 1,, 8,, 6,, 4,, 2,, * *21 figures as of March 31, 21. 4% of the population is estimated to have a cell phone. FIGURE 3.12 Estimated Percentage of Afghans with Access to Water/Sanitation Facilities 72 AS OF: June 28 Access to safe drinking water 23% Access to adequate sanitation 12% 31

32 FIGURE 3.13 Education Metrics 73 Estimated Annual Enrollment in Elementary and Secondary Education, ,, 6,, 5,, 4,, 3,, Girls Boys 2,, 1,, NOTE: It is estimated that in 21 less than 1 million students were enrolled in primary/secondary education, virtually none of them girls. Primary/Secondary Education NUMBER OF SCHOOLS 9,62 1,998 All Girls 1,337 Co-ed 4,325 NUMBER OF TEACHERS 147, ,244 Women ~4, SINCE APRIL 26*: Schools Razed/Burned Down 238 Schools closed due to severe threats 65+ Students and Teachers killed by violence 29 *Thru March 29 NOTE: APRIL 29 It is estimated that approximately 5, children in four southern provinces are currently prevented from attending school due to the threat of violence. Literacy Overall 28% Male 36% Female 18% FIGURE 3.14 Poverty Levels, % Population Living Below the Poverty Line* % Population Living Slightly Above the Poverty Line % Population Experiencing Food Poverty^ 42% 2% 45% *Defined as living on a monthly income of US $14/month or less ^Those unable to purchase sufficient food to guarantee world standard minimum food intake of 2,1 calories/day 32

33 FIGURE 3.15 Foreign Aid Pledged and Disbursed, ($ Billion) 75 DONOR Total Pledged AID Disbursed % of Pledges Disbursed by end of 29 US % EU Institutions % United Kingdom % Germany % Canada % Japan % Netherlands % Norway % India % Sweden % Italy % Turkey % Australia % Iran % Spain % Denmark % France % Finland % Russia % Switzerland % Multilateral Agencies % Others % TOTAL % NOTE: PLEDGED aid is promised but yet to be devoted for a specific purpose and DISBURSED aid has been earmarked and delivered. FIGURE 3.16 Aid Disbursements from Government Donors and Multilateral Agencies and General Government Revenue 76 (US$ Billion) Year General Govt Revenue Aid 33

34 FIGURE 3.17 Aid Channeled Through UN Agencies, International and Local NGOs, ICRC, and the Red Cross/Red Crescent Societies, US$ Million UN Agencies, Funds and Commissions International NGOs ICRC, Red Cross, and Red Cresent Societies Local NGOs Year FIGURE 3.18 Annual Value of Imports and Exports, With Top Trade Partners, ($ Millions) Exports (TOTAL) Pakistan India United States Imports (TOTAL) 1,34 1,68 1,971 3,2 3,633 Pakistan ,172 1,375 United States Germany India Republic of Korea Turkmenistan Japan FIGURE 3.19 Microfinance Clients, Borrowers and Loan Amounts 79 Active Clients Active Borrowers Number of Loans Disbursed Amount of Loans Disbursed ($ millions) Loans Outstanding ($ millions) TOTAL 443,74 375,114 1,155,562 $453.3 $111.3 URBAN 38, ,42 81,472 $327.1 $81.2 RURAL 134, ,72 354,9 $126.2 $3.2 AS OF: 28 34

35 FIGURE 3.2 Healthcare Metrics % People Living In Districts Where Basic Package of Health Care Program (BPHC) Is Being Implemented % 25 77% 26 82% NOTE: The BPHC is a program started in 22 by the Ministry of Public Health to provide essential basic healthcare throughout Afghanistan s districts. Life Expectancy Men Women Infant and Children Under-Five Mortality Rates (Per 1, Live Births) Infant Children Under Five % OF AFGHAN CHILDREN RECEIVING VARIOUS VACCINATIONS BCG Vaccine 57% 7% Polio Vaccine 3% 7% NOTE: The BCG is a vaccination to prevent tuberculosis. 35

36 AFGHANISTAN: WHERE THINGS STAND 84 ABC News/BBC/ARD Poll, November 21 (1,691 Afghan adults from throughout the country were interviewed) Previous surveys depicted took place March 24, September 25, September 26, November 27, January 29, and December 29. FIGURE 4.1 Question: Generally Speaking, Do You Think Things in Afghanistan Today Are Going In the Right Direction, or Do You Think Things Are Going In The Wrong Direction? (24-21) 9% 4. POLLING & PUBLIC OPINION 8% 77% 7% 7% 64% 6% 59% 55% 54% 5% 4% 4% Right direction Wrong direction 38% 3% 28% 2% 22% 24% 21% 1% 11% 6% % Jan-9 Dec-9 Nov-1 FIGURE 4.2 Performance Ratings for Various Entities* 9% 83% 8% 8% 7% 6% 68% 57% 67% 64% 59% 63% 52% 71% 61% 62% 58% 5% 4% 43% 49% 38% Hamid Karzai Afghan Government U.S. in Afghanistan 3% 32% 32% 2% 1% % Jan-9 Dec-9 Nov-1 *% of respondents who answered Excellent or Good to the Question: How would you rate the work of? 36

37 FIGURE 4.3 Question: Is Your Opinion of the Taliban Very Favorable, Somewhat Favorable, Somewhat Unfavorable Or Very Unfavorable? 9% 8% 76% 74% 79% 75% 7% 69% 68% 6% 5% 4% Jan-9 Dec-9 Nov-1 3% 2% 1% % 21% 15% 15% 13% 13% 12% 1% 8% 7% 7% 6% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% Very favorable Somewhat favorable Somewhat unfavorable Very unfavorable No opinion FIGURE 4.4 Question: Who Would You Rather Have Ruling Afghanistan Today? 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 9% 91% 88% 86% 84% 82% Nov-1 Dec-9 Jan % 1% % 9% 1 % 6% 6% 4% 5% 6% 4% 3% 4% 3% 4% 5% 6% 1% 1% 2% Current Government Taliban Other No opinion 37

38 FIGURE 4.5 Question: Which Of The Following Do You Think Poses The Biggest Danger In Our Country? Taliban 41% 52% 57% 58% 64% 69% Drug Traffickers 13% 11% 14% 2% 23% 28% Local Commanders 9% 9% 7% 6% 6% 22% Jan-9 Dec-9 Nov-1 United States 4% 8% 1% 8% 4% 6% Current Afghan government 2% 3% 1% 1% 2% 1% % 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% FIGURE 4.6 Question: How Much of A Problem Is the Issue of Corruption among Government Officials or the Police in this Area? 8% 76% 7% 63% 6% 55% 5% 4% 45% 5% 35% Jan-9 Dec-9 Nov-1 3% 27% 2% 23% 21% 19% 1% % 11% 11% 11% 1% 9% 8% 6% 4% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% Big problem Moderate problem Small problem Not a problem No opinion 38

39 AFGHANISTAN IN 21: A SURVEY OF THE AFGHAN PEOPLE 85 Asia Foundation, November 21 (6,467 Afghan adults from throughout the country were interviewed) FIGURE 4.7 Present Condition of Various Infrastructure in Localities, INFRASTRUCTURE VERY/QUITE GOOD (%) QUITE/VERY BAD (%) Availability of clean drinking water Availability of water for irrigation Availability of jobs Supply of electricity Availability of medical care Availability of education for children Survey Released: September 27, October 28, October 29, and November 21. FIGURE 4.8 Question: Which Is The Main Source From Where You Normally Get Information About What Is Happening In The Country? (27, 28 & 29) 8% 7% 73% 6% 61% 64% 57% 57% 62% 5% 54% 51% 47% 53% 46% 54% 4% Radio TV Friends/Family/Neighbors 3% 2% 1% 26% 14% 28% 16% 16% 5% 21% 18% 11% 27% 28% 12% 25% 18% 14% 2% 24% 9% 28% 19% 16% 22% 18% 7% % All Rural Urban All Rural Urban All Rural Urban All Rural Urban Survey Released: September 27, October 28, October 29, and November

40 AFGHANISTAN PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY 86 The International Republican Institute, November 29 (2,4 Afghan adults from throughout the country were interviewed) Previous surveys depicted took place and 29 Released: January 19, 21 FIGURE 4.9 Question: Do you think Afghanistan is moving in the right direction or the wrong direction? 7% 6% 62% 56% 5% 4% 3% 3% 37% 27% 24% 26% -9 Jul-9 Nov-9 2% 1% 7% 13% 11% 4% 3% % Right Direction Wrong Direction Neither DK/REF FIGURE 4.1 Question: Did you vote in the August 2, 29 presidential election? 35% Yes No 65% 4

41 FIGURE 4.11 Question: Do you think the presidential election held on August 2, 29 was free and fair? 21% 44% Yes No DK/REF 35% FIGURE 4.12 Question: Do you think Hamid Karzai is the legitimate President of Afghanistan? 14% 21% Yes No DK/REF 66% 41

42 FIGURE 5.1 Additional Sources of Information on Afghanistan Source 5. AFGHANISTAN RESEARCH TOOLS Web Site Address International Security Assistance Force ISAF, in support of the Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, conducts operations in Afghanistan to reduce the capability and will of the insurgency, support the growth in capacity and capability of the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF), and facilitate improvements in governance and socio-economic development, in order to provide a secure environment for sustainable stability that is observable to the population. Afghanistan Conflict Monitor An Initiative of the Human Security Report Project at the School for International Studies at Simon Fraser University. Provides summaries of academic articles and reports, links to documents, publications and data. AfghanWire Afghanwire.com provides an internet-based news and information service to organisations and professional users who want to monitor Afghanistan s national media outlets. 42

43 1 Hannah Fairfield and Kevin Quealy, Troop Levels in Afghanistan Since 21, New York Times, October 1, 29. Accessed at: Institute for the Study of War, Afghanistan Order of Battle, November 29. Accessed at: February 21 figures: David Petraeus, Meet the Press, February 21, 21, accessed at US weighs more troops for north Afghanistan: official, Agence France Presse, March 19, 21. John J. Kruzel, Special Forces in Iraq to Remain through Drawdown, American Forces Press Service, April 1, 21. Anne Gearan, More US troops in Afghanistan than Iraq, a first, Associated Press, 24, 21. Luis Martinez, Gates, Mullen & Clinton React to McChrystal, Abc News, June 24, 21. Robert Reid, US casualties in Afghanistan soar to record highs, The Associated Press, 31, 21. Robert Reid, "5 More American Troops Die in Afghan Fighting", Associated Press, August 31, 21. Robert Burns and Julie Pace, "With Afghan control by 214, Obama sees combat end", Associated Press, November 21, Michael O Hanlon and Adriana Lins de Albuquerque, Afghanistan Index, February 23, 25. Accessed at: Victor Davis Hanson, "Will Iraq work? That's up to us", National Review Online, April 23, 24. U.S. Department of State, "The U.S. and Nato: An Alliance of Purpose", June 24. Jon Lee Anderson, "The Man in the Palace: Hamid Karzai and the dilemma of being Afghanistan's President", The New Yorker, June 6, 25. Thom Shanker, "Coalition Steps Up Raids as Afghan Elections Approach", The New York Times, August 2, 25. Ahmed Rashid, "Nato's Afghanistan troop dilemma", BBC News, December 26, 25. Michael R. Gordon, "NATO Moves to Tighten Grip in Afghanistan", The New York Times, June 9, 26. Peter Bergen, "Trees and tapes may hint at bin Laden location", CNN, August 28, 26. Mark John and Kristin Roberts, "NATO takes over Afghanistan war", The Sydney Morning Herald, September 3, 26. U.S. Department of Defense, "Correcting the Record", October 5, 26. Thom Shanker, "Leaving NATO, U.S. General Still Seeks Troops for Afghanistan", The New York Times, December 21, 26. CBC News, "NATO troops in Afghanistan in November 26", November 29, 26. ISAF Troop Placemat, NATO-ISAF Web site. Accessed at: 3 Michèle P. Flournoy, "Developments in Afghanistan", Testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee, June 15, 21. Accessed at: 4 ISAF Troops Placemat, NATO-ISAF website. Accessed at: 5 Ibid. 6 U.S. Department of Defense, Report on Progress toward Security and Stability in Afghanistan, Report to Congress in Accordance with the 28 National Defense Authorization Act, June 28, p. 22. Accessed at: GAO-8-661, Afghanistan Security: Further Congressional Action Be Needed to Ensure Completion of a Detailed Plan to Develop and Sustain Capable Afghan National Security Forces, Government Accountability Office, June 28, p. 33. Accessed at: Major General Robert Cone, Press Conference from Afghanistan, November 12, 28. Accessed at: ISAF Troops Placemat, NATO-ISAF website. Accessed at: Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, Quarterly Report to the United States Congress, January 3, 21, p. 6. Accessed at: ISAF, Metrics Brief 21, unclassified briefing slides. David Gollust, "US Envoy Reports Progress on Afghan Security", Voice of America, December 21, 24. Caroline Wadhams, "Afghanistan: Four Years After the Invasion", Center for American Progress, October 25, p. 5. Accessed at: Anthony Cordesman, "Winning in Afghanistan: How to Face the Rising Threat", Center for Strategic and International Studies, December 12, 26, p. 65. Accessed at: CJ Radin, "Afghan National Security Forces Order of Battle", The Long War Journal, January 28. Accessed at: ISAF, Metrics Brief February 211, unclassified briefing slides. 7 Ann Scott Tyson, More Recruits, U.S. Arms Planned for Afghan Military, Washington Post, December 5, 27. U.S. Department of Defense, Report on Progress toward Security and Stability in Afghanistan, Report to Congress in Accordance with the 28 National Defense Authorization Act, January 29, p. 35 (and subsequent reports). Accessed at: ISAF Troops Placemat, NATO-ISAF website. Accessed at: (and subsequent updates). Combined Security Transition Command Afghanistan, Afghan National Army Total End Strength, November 29 unclassified briefing slides. Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, Quarterly Report to the United States Congress, January 3, 21, p. 6. Accessed at: U.S. Department of Defense, Report on Progress toward Security and Stability in Afghanistan, Report to Congress in Accordance with the 28 National Defense Authorization Act, April 21, p. 6. Accessed at: ISAF, Metrics Brief 21, unclassified briefing slides. ISAF, Metrics Brief October 21, unclassified briefing slides. ISAF, Metrics Brief February 211, unclassified briefing slides. 8 M. O Hanlon, I. Livingston and H. Messera, States of Conflict: An Update, The New York Times, December 27, 21. 9Ibid. Department of Defense, DOD News Briefing with Lt. Gen. Caldwell via Teleconference from Afghanistan, August 23, 21. ISAF, Metrics Brief September 21, unclassified briefing slides. ISAF, Metrics Brief October 21, unclassified briefing slides. ISAF, Metrics Brief January 211, unclassified briefing slides 1 ISAF, Metrics Brief September 21, unclassified briefing slides. 11 ISAF, Metrics Brief 21, unclassified briefing slides 12 ISAF, Metrics Brief September 21, unclassified briefing slides. 13 Ibid. 14Moshe Schwartz, "Department of Defense Contractors in Iraq and Afghanistan: Background and Analysis", Congressional Research Service, December 14, 29. Accessed at: Matt Kelley, Afghanistan Becomes More Dangerous For Contractors, USA Today, April 22, 21. Moshe Schwartz, Department of Defense Contractors in Iraq, Congressional Research Service, 2, Moshe Schwartz, "The Department of Defense's Use of Private Security Contractors in Afghanistan and Iraq: Background, Analysis, and Options for Congress", February 21, 211, p. 8. Accessed at: Afghanistan-and-Iraq Moshe Schwartz, "The Department of Defense's Use of Private Security Contractors in Afghanistan and Iraq: Background, Analysis, and Options for Congress", February 21, 211, p. 21. Accessed at: 16Walter Pincus, U.S. fights trainer shortage, illiteracy in Afghanistan, The Washington Post, March 17, U.S. Mission Kabul, Metrics Brief 21, unclassified briefing slides. U.S. Mission Kabul, Metrics Brief September 21, unclassified briefing slides. 18 Strategic Advisory Group Headquarters ISAF, Security Metrics: March 29, prepared April 16, 29 (and subsequent updates) 19Ibid. 2 Petraeus: We re doing everything we can to achieve progress, Washingtonpost.com, August 15, 21. Accessed at: Kimberly Dozier, Petraeus Highlights Special Ops Successes In Afghanistan, Associated Press, September 4, Joshua Partlow, "In Kandahar, the Taliban targets and assassinates those who support U.S. efforts", The Washington Post, 22, U.S. Department of Defense Operation Iraqi Freedom and Operation Enduring Freedom Casualty page. Accessed at: Historical data accessed at: Icasualties.org Operation Enduring Freedom Casualty Count website. Accessed at: 23 Icasualties.org Operation Enduring Freedom Casualty Count website. Accessed at: 24 icasualties.org Operation Enduring Freedom Casualty Count website. Accessed at: 25 Icasualties.org Operation Enduring Freedom Casualty Count website. Accessed at: 26 U.S. Department of Defense Operation Iraqi Freedom and Operation Enduring Freedom Casualty page. Accessed at: Historical data accessed at: 43