Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Australia

Transcription

1 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Australia 3 215

2 Australian Employment Outlook The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey for the third quarter 215 was conducted by interviewing a representative sample of 1,56 employers in Australia. All survey participants were asked, How do you anticipate total employment at your location to change in the three months to the end of September 215 as compared to the current quarter? Contents Australian Employment Outlook 1 Organisation-Size Comparisons Regional Comparisons Sector Comparisons Global Employment Outlook 11 About the Survey 13 About ManpowerGroup TM 14

3 Australian Employment Outlook Increase Decrease No Change Don t Know Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted % % % % % % July-Sep Apr-June Jan-Mar Oct-Dec July-Sep No bar indicates of zero Australian employers report moderate hiring intentions for the coming quarter. With 12% of employers expecting to increase staffing levels, 8% forecasting a decrease and 76% anticipating no change, the resulting is +4%. Once the data is adjusted to allow for seasonal variation, the Outlook stands at +6%. Hiring prospects decline by two and four percentage points quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, respectively. Throughout this report, we use the term. This figure is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating total employment to increase and subtracting from this the percentage expecting to see a decrease in employment at their location in the next quarter. The result of this calculation is the. From this point forward, all data discussed in the commentary is seasonally adjusted, unless stated otherwise. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey 1

4 Organisation-Size Comparisons Participating employers are categorised into one of four organisation sizes: Micro businesses have less than 1 employees; Small businesses have 1-49 employees; Medium businesses have employees; and Large businesses have 25 or more employees. Workforce gains are anticipated in all four organisation size categories during the coming quarter. The most optimistic hiring plans are reported by Large-size employers with a of +1%. Outlooks stand at +6% and +5% in the Medium- and Small-size categories, respectively, while Micro-size employers report cautious Outlook of +1%. When compared with Quarter 2 215, Outlooks weaken by four and three percentage points for Small- and Medium-size businesses, respectively. Elsewhere, hiring prospects remain relatively stable. Year-over-year, the Outlook for Small firms declines by nine percentage points while decreases of four and two percentage points are reported in the Microand Medium-size categories, respectively. Meanwhile, Large employers report an improvement of two percentage points. Organisation-Size Increase Decrease No Change Don t Know Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted % % % % % % Micro-Size less than Small-Size Medium-Size Large-Size 25 or more Micro-Size less than 1 Small-Size 1-49 Medium-Size Large-Size 25 or more Graph displays Seasonally Adjusted Data 2 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey

5 Regional Comparisons Employers in seven of the eight regions anticipate an increase in staffing levels during Quarter The strongest labour market is forecast in Queensland where the stands at +9%. Elsewhere, Victoria employers expect some hiring opportunities, reporting an Outlook of +8%, while Outlooks stand at +5% in Tasmania, New South Wales and Australian Capital Territory (ACT). Meanwhile, the weakest hiring intentions are reported in Western Australia, where the Outlook stands at -6%. When compared with Quarter 2 215, hiring intentions weaken in four of the eight regions. Considerable Outlook declines of 13 and 11 percentage points are reported in Northern Territory and Western Australia, respectively, while the Outlook is five percentage points weaker in New South Wales. However, Outlooks improve in four regions, including ACT and Tasmania, where employers report increases of 12 and three percentage points, respectively. Year-over-year, hiring prospects weaken in five of the eight regions, most notably by 18 and 14 percentage points in Northern Territory and Western Australia, respectively. New South Wales employers report a decline of six percentage points and the Victoria Outlook is four percentage points weaker. Meanwhile, hiring plans improve in two regions, including ACT where employers report a considerable increase of 12 percentage points. 1 Australian Capital Territory (ACT)* 5 New South Wales Northern Territory Queensland South Australia Tasmania Victoria Western Australia *Incorporated with New South Wales until Q Manpower Employment Outlook Survey 3

6 +1 (+5)% Australian Capital Territory (ACT) Job seekers can expect a modest hiring pace in Quarter with employers reporting a of +5%. The Outlook improves by 12 percentage points both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year No bar indicates of zero +5 (+5)% New South Wales A mild hiring climate is anticipated in the July-September time frame with employers reporting a of +5%. However, hiring intentions are five percentage points weaker when compared with the previous quarter and decline by six percentage points year-over-year No bar indicates of zero +11 (+1)% Northern Territory Job seekers can expect the weakest labour market since the region was first included in the survey in Quarter 2 24, according to employers who report a of +1% for the upcoming quarter. The Outlook declines by considerable margins of 13 and 18 percentage points quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, respectively No bar indicates of zero 4 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey

7 +9 (+9)% Queensland With a of +9%, employers report cautiously optimistic hiring plans for the next three months. Hiring prospects remain relatively stable both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year No bar indicates of zero. Due to severe flooding Queensland employers were not surveyed in Q (+4)% South Australia Job seekers can expect modest hiring activity in the forthcoming quarter, according to employers who report a of +4%. Hiring intentions remain relatively stable when compared with the previous quarter and are unchanged year-over-year No bar indicates of zero +2 (+5)% Tasmania Some payroll gains are anticipated in the July-September time frame with employers reporting a of +5%. The Outlook is three percentage points stronger when compared with the previous quarter but declines by two percentage points year-over-year No bar indicates of zero Manpower Employment Outlook Survey 5

8 +6 (+8)% Victoria Employers anticipate a fair hiring climate in Quarter 3 215, reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +8%. However, hiring intentions are four percentage points weaker both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year No bar indicates of zero -6 (-6)% Western Australia Employers forecast the weakest hiring pace since the region was first analysed in Quarter 4 23, reporting a of -6% for the next three months. Hiring prospects are 11 percentage points weaker when compared with the previous quarter and decline by 14 percentage points year-over-year No bar indicates of zero 6 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey

9 Sector Comparisons Employers in six of the seven industry sectors expect to increase staffing levels during the coming quarter. The strongest hiring prospects are reported in the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector with a Net Employment Outlook of +19%. Steady payroll gains are forecast by Services sector employers with an Outlook of +12%, while some job gains are expected by Transportation & Utilities sector employers who report an Outlook of +5%. However, Mining & Construction sector employers anticipate a decline in staffing levels with an Outlook of -2%. When compared with the previous quarter, Outlooks weaken in five of the seven industry sectors. The most noteworthy decline of seven percentage points is reported in the Mining & Construction sector while Outlooks are three percentage points weaker in both the Public Administration & Education sector and the Manufacturing sector. Meanwhile, hiring intentions remain relatively stable in both the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector and the Wholesale Trade & Retail Trade sector. Year-over-year, hiring plans weaken in six of the seven industry sectors. The most noteworthy declines of 1 and nine percentage points are reported in the Mining & Construction sector and the Wholesale Trade & Retail Trade sector, respectively, while Manufacturing sector employers report a decrease of six percentage points. Elsewhere, the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector Outlook is six percentage points stronger. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate Manufacturing Mining & Construction Public Administration & Education Services Transportation & Utilities Wholesale & Retail Trade Manpower Employment Outlook Survey 7

10 +17 (+19)% Finance, Insurance & Real Estate Job seekers can expect the strongest labour market since Quarter in the forthcoming quarter, according to employers who report a of +19%. Hiring prospects remain relatively stable quarter-over-quarter and improve by six percentage points year-over-year No bar indicates of zero (+1)% Manufacturing A quiet hiring pace is forecast for the July-September time frame with employers reporting a of +1%. Hiring intentions weaken by three and six percentage points quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, respectively No bar indicates of zero -2 (-2)% Mining & Construction With a of -2%, employers anticipate subdued hiring activity in Quarter Hiring plans are seven percentage points weaker when compared with the previous quarter and decline by 1 percentage points year-over-year No bar indicates of zero 8 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey

11 +1 (+3)% Public Administration & Education Modest payroll growth is expected in the next three months with employers reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +3%. However, hiring intentions decline both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, decreasing by three and two percentage points, respectively No bar indicates of zero +1 (+12)% Services Employers forecast a favourable hiring climate in the July-September period with a Net Employment Outlook of +12%. The Outlook remains relatively stable both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year No bar indicates of zero +6 (+5)% Transportation & Utilities Reporting a of +5%, employers anticipate some hiring opportunities in Quarter However, hiring prospects decline by two percentage points when compared with the previous quarter and are four percentage points weaker year-over-year No bar indicates of zero Manpower Employment Outlook Survey 9

12 +2 (+2)% Wholesale & Retail Trade Slow-paced hiring activity is likely in the next three months, according to employers who report a of +2%. The Outlook remains relatively stable quarter-over-quarter but declines by nine percentage points year-over-year No bar indicates of zero 1 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey

13 Global Employment Outlook Quarter Qtr on Qtr Change Q2 215 to Q3 215 Yr on Yr Change Q3 214 to Q3 215 Quarter Americas Argentina Brazil Canada Colombia Costa Rica Guatemala Mexico Panama Peru United States Asia Pacific Australia China Hong Kong India Japan New Zealand Singapore Taiwan EMEA Austria Belgium Bulgaria Czech Republic Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Israel Italy Netherlands Norway Poland Romania Slovakia Slovenia South Africa Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey UK % 5 (5) 1-1 (2) 1-3 (-4) 1-6 (-3) 1-9 (-4) 1-18 (-13) 1 15 (9) 1 13 (13) 1-2 (-2) 1-1 (-1) 1 1 (14) 1-1 (3) 1-2 (-2) 1 11 (1) 1 8 (8) 1 2 (16) 1 2 () 1 2 (2) 1 4 (6) 1 13 (13) 1 17 (16) 1 39 (37) 1 2 (23) 1 11 (12) 1 14 (13) 1 45 (42) 1 3 (1) 1 1 (2) 1 8 (7) 1 (1) 1 5 (5) (-4) 1 3 (2) 1 4 (4) 1 3 (2) 1-1 (-2) 1 3 (3) 1 5 (4) 1 EMEA Europe, Middle East and Africa. 2 (-1) 1-1 (-1) 1 () 1-6 (-2) 1 4 (5) 1 2 (-1) 1-2 (-1) 1-9 (2) 1-8 (-5) 1 (-1) 1-1 (-2) 1 () 1-2 () 1-1 (-1) 1 7 (8) 1-3 (-2) 1-2 (-2) 1-4 (-4) 1 12 (13) 1-5 (-5) 1-6 (-6) 1-1 (-9) 1-4 (-4) 1 () 1 1 (1) 1-12 (-11) 1 6 (6) 1-15 (-15) 1-6 (-6) 1 2 (3) 1-1 (-1) 1 3 (3) 1 16 (1) 1 2 (1) 1 2 (2) 1 7 (4) 1 3 () 1 4 (4) (4) 1 6 (5) 1 4 (3) 1 () 1 4 (4) 1 () 1 11 (7) 1-3 (-3) 1-2 (-1) 1 6 (5) 1-7 (-5) 1-4 (-4) 1 2 (1) 1-2 (-1) 1 9 (4) 1 (-3) 1 () 1 14 (7) 1-6 (-2) 1-2 (-2) (8) 1-1 () 1 1 (1) 1 6 (8) 1-5 (-2) 1-5 (-5) 1 5 (1) 1 (-3) 1 () 1 2 (2) 1-4 (-2) 1-4 (-4) 1 1 (2) 1-5 (-2) 1-1 (-1) 1 19 (14) 1-2 (-2) 1-7 (-7) 1 8 (6) 1 2 () 1-1 (-1) 1 1. Number in parentheses is the when adjusted to remove the impact of seasonal variations in hiring activity. Please note that this data is not available for all countries as a minimum of 17 quarters worth of data is required Taiwan India +42% +37% Japan Hong Kong United States Costa Rica Turkey China Colombia Panama Singapore Israel New Zealand Slovakia Finland Bulgaria Mexico Canada Guatemala Peru Slovenia South Africa Greece Ireland Romania Australia United Kingdom Argentina Germany Hungary Czech Republic France Norway Poland Belgium Netherlands Sweden Switzerland Austria Spain +23% +16% +16% +14% +14% +13% +13% +13% +13% +12%* +12% +12%* +11%* +1% +1% +9% +8% +8% +8% +8% +7% +7% +7% +6% +6% +5% +5% +5% +4% +4% +4% +4% +2% +2% +2% +2% +1% +1% Brazil Italy -3% -4% Indicates unadjusted data. * Manpower Employment Outlook Survey 11

14 The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is ManpowerGroup s quarterly index of employer hiring confidence. ManpowerGroup interviewed nearly 59, employers across 42 countries and territories to forecast labour market activity* in Quarter All participants were asked, How do you anticipate total employment at your location to change in the three months to the end of September 215 as compared to the current quarter? Third-quarter forecasts are mostly positive with employers in 4 of 42 countries and territories expecting to add to their workforces by varying margins over the next three months. However, although most forecasts indicate payrolls will grow in the July-September time frame, the results suggest hiring will proceed at an uneven pace and overall hiring momentum will be marginally slower in comparison to the prior quarter and last year at this time. Hiring prospects improve in 11 countries and territories in a quarter-over-quarter comparison, but decline in 22. Outlooks strengthen in 15 countries and territories year-over-year, but decline in 23. The most optimistic s are reported in Taiwan, India, Japan, Hong Kong and the United States. The weakest and only negative third-quarter hiring plans are reported in Italy and Brazil. Employers in nine of 1 countries in the Americas expect to grow staffing levels in Quarter But in a pattern echoed elsewhere across the globe, opportunities for job seekers are expected to be less abundant in the region than they were three months ago and last year at this time. Quarter-over-quarter, s improve in two countries, decline in six and are unchanged in two. Outlooks decline in nine countries in a year-over-year comparison and improve only in the United States. Employers in the United States report the region s strongest hiring plans, while the negative forecast from Brazil s employers is the weakest. Results are similar in the Asia Pacific region. Positive hiring plans are reported in each of the eight countries and territories, but are generally softer when compared to results from the prior quarter and last year. Outlooks improve in only two countries and territories when compared with the second quarter, and weaken in six. Outlooks strengthen in three countries and territories and weaken in four when compared year-over-year. Employers in Taiwan and India report the most optimistic hiring intentions in the region and across the globe, while the weakest hiring pace in the region is expected in Australia. Across the 24 countries in the Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) region, employers in 23 report positive third-quarter forecasts. Hiring intentions strengthen in seven countries when compared with the April-June time frame, but weaken in 1. Employers in 11 countries report stronger forecasts in year-over-year comparisons and weaker hiring intentions in 1. The strongest hiring pace is again reported in Turkey where employer optimism remains upbeat despite the dipping to its weakest level since the survey launched in Quarter Italy s negative forecast is the weakest across the region and the globe. Full survey results for each of the 42 countries and territories included in this quarter s survey, plus regional and global comparisons, can be found at The next Manpower Employment Outlook Survey will be released on 8 September 215 and will detail expected labour market activity for the fourth quarter of 215. * Commentary is based on seasonally adjusted data where available. Data is not seasonally adjusted for Finland, Israel and Slovakia. 12 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey

15 About the Survey The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted quarterly to measure employers intentions to increase or decrease the number of employees in their workforces during the next quarter. ManpowerGroup s comprehensive forecast of employer hiring plans has been running for more than 5 years and is one of the most trusted surveys of employment activity in the world. Various factors underpin the success of the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey: Unique: It is unparalleled in its size, scope, longevity and area of focus. Projective: The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is the most extensive, forward-looking employment survey in the world, asking employers to forecast employment over the next quarter. In contrast, other surveys and studies focus on retrospective data to report on what occurred in the past. Independent: The survey is conducted with a representative sample of employers from throughout the countries and territories in which it is conducted. The survey participants are not derived from ManpowerGroup s customer base. Robust: The survey is based on interviews with nearly 59, public and private employers across 42 countries and territories to measure anticipated employment trends each quarter. This sample allows for analysis to be performed across specific sectors and regions to provide more detailed information. Focused: For more than five decades the survey has derived all of its information from a single question: For the Quarter research, all employers participating in the survey worldwide are asked the same question, How do you anticipate total employment at your location to change in the three months to the end of September 215 as compared to the current quarter? Methodology The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted using a validated methodology, in accordance with the highest standards in market research. The survey has been structured to be representative of each national economy. The margin of error for all national, regional and global data is not greater than +/- 3.9%. In Australia, the national survey is conducted by external surveyors and includes 1,56 employers. With this number of interviews, the margin of error for the Australian Survey is +/- 2.5%. Throughout this report, we use the term Net Employment Outlook. This figure is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating an increase in hiring activity and subtracting from this the percentage of employers expecting to see a decrease in employment at their location in the next quarter. The result of this calculation is the Net Employment Outlook. s for countries and territories that have accumulated at least 17 quarters of data are reported in a seasonally adjusted format unless otherwise stated. Seasonal adjustments have been applied to the data for all participating countries except Finland, Slovakia and Israel. ManpowerGroup intends to add seasonal adjustments to the data for these countries in the future as more historical data is compiled. Note that in Quarter 2 28, ManpowerGroup adopted the TRAMO-SEATS method of seasonal adjustment for data. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey 13

16 About ManpowerGroup TM ManpowerGroup (NYSE: MAN) has been the world s workforce expert, creating innovative workforce solutions, for more than 65 years. As workforce experts, we connect more than 6, men and women to meaningful work across a wide range of skills and industries every day. Through our ManpowerGroup family of brands Manpower, Experis, Right Management and ManpowerGroup Solutions we help more than 4, clients in 8 countries and territories address their critical talent needs, providing comprehensive solutions to resource, manage and develop talent. In 215, ManpowerGroup was named one of the World s Most Ethical Companies for the fifth consecutive year and one of Fortune s Most Admired Companies, confirming our position as the most trusted and admired brand in the industry. See how ManpowerGroup makes powering the world of work humanly possible: About ManpowerGroup Australia ManpowerGroup established its first offices in Australia in The company operates under the brand names of Manpower, ManpowerGroup Solutions, Experis and Right Management. For more information please visit: Manpower Services (Australia) Pty Ltd, Level 22, Darling Park, Tower 2, 21 Sussex Street, Sydney NSW 2 Tel: , ManpowerGroup. All rights reserved.