The History of Wargaming. Matthew B. Caffrey Jr. 17 July 2018
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1 The History of Wargaming Matthew B. Caffrey Jr. 17 July 2018
2 How Do We Test Hypotheses? Set Up Experiments? Find Natural Experiments
3 Innovation Cycle History Theory Doctrine Plan Execution
4 In the Beginning It all started with language - and toys The Royal Toys
5
6 In the Beginning Egypt Egypt Rome China Egypt Egypt India
7 On The Brink Fredrick s use of maps Clerk models naval combat Abstract games grow less abstract: 1664 Koinigspiel 1780 Kriegschach 1797 New Kriegspiel
8 The Long Haired Revolutionary
9
10 Napoleon s Advantages Technology* Genius Meritocracy Numbers
11 The Origins of Modern Wargaming Herr von Reisswitz - a base of sand Lt Reisswitz - the expanding circle
12
13 Moltke s Process - Offsite - Brain Storming - Wargame - Exercise - Deliberate Planning
14 World Wide Wargaming / / / 1875 / 1905 Secondary diffusion Austro-Hungarian England Italy France Russia Japan, Turkey, Latin Am.
15 Coming to America Major (later Col) Livermore
16
17
18 Coming to America Major Livermore US Naval War College
19
20 Coming to America Major Livermore US Naval War College 1890s - US Army Command and General Staff College
21 Coming to America
22 Innovation & Decline in Germany Innovation Morale Egypt Factors Free Free Egypt Wargaming Egypt Wargaming Decline Egypt Cmd Influence Face Egypt Time
23 Birth of Modern Civilian Wargaming The Reserve Connection Wilkinson - one man s impact 1890s Delbrück - first duty of the new rulers
24 Birth of Modern Civilian Wargaming The Popularizers
25 Birth of Modern Civilian Wargaming The Popularizes
26 Wargaming & the Great War Pre-war Wargaming 1905 The wargames that shaped the world 1910s Moltke the Younger - the return of rigor 1914 The wg that didn t change history Wargaming & the Great War The Peace offensive German UK
27 Inter War Wargaming Germany Strategic Innovation > Blood & Mud - Operational Innovation > Blitzkrieg > Wolf Packs
28 Innovation Cycle History Theory Doctrine Plan Execution
29 Innovation Cycle With Wargamig History Theory Doctrine Plan Wargame
30 Inter War Wargaming Germany Strat Innovation > Blood & Soil - Ops Innovation > Blitzkrieg US Navy PME: Teach how to learn, cycle of WGs USMC: Accelerate RMA Army: Just in Time Air Corps: A false dawn UK - Negative example French Innovation vs training Playing Red USSR - Victory through defeat
31 World War II Germany Mannstein makes his case Barbarossa - an accurate mistake Victory at Normandy, twice
32 World War II Japan The Total War Research Institute
33 World War II
34 World War II Japan The Total War Research Institute Both attacks on Pearl Harbor
35 World War II
36 World War II Japan The Total War Research Institute Both attacks on Pearl Harbor Both battles of Midway Why did Japan keep on fighting
37 World War II UK Both extremes
38
39 World War II UK US Both extremes US Army Ground Forces shortage US Army Air Forces - sorely missed USMC eerie success, then.. Navy success - but...
40 World War II The war with Japan had been [enacted] in the game room here by so many people in so many different ways that nothing that happened during the war was a surprise, absolutely nothing except the Kamikaze. Fleet Admiral Chester Nimitz
41 Eclipse Decline in the study of war at the war colleges Rise of deterrence & the efficient DoD Korea seen as an aberration
42 Why was Wargaming Reborn? The onset of the Cold War Assumed credibility of computers Prestige The obsolescence of Operations of war Research had been greatly exaggerated Reaction against the management mindset of Vietnam
43 1950s Analysis models US Naval - NEWS from the Naval War Col USMC - Landing Force Wargame series Army - Aggressors, at least a start Air Force - RAND & wargaming International Soviet historical rigor UK OR
44
45
46 Wargaming - The Korean War North Vietnam - Soviet, initial planning? - China, road not taken US
47 1960s Pentagon Games US Joint - Wargaming at the heart Naval - NWC goes to WARS Army - Making the case for Air Mobile Air Force Skybolt, gains PME WG International - UK & Canadian OR
48 Wargaming - The Vietnam War North Vietnam - Soviet method of wargaming - Partial explanation of lack of radio use, style of fighting US Wargame predicted stalemate -- NOT continued to conflict resolution Limited in theater use Wargame predicted victory?
49 1970s Education and Training US Naval - Top Gun, to CRP, to Global Army - Tech solution to a people problem? Air Force - Red Flag!
50
51 1980s O-Plan Development Services Naval - The golden age of Global Army - From III Corps to NTC Air Force - Air Force Wargaming Center USMC The right wargame for each need Joint CENTCOM takes the lead DARPA s modest innovation
52
53 Wargaming - The Gulf War Iraqi - Soviet method for ground forces - a reason for the halt? - US software for air forces - a reason they did not fight? Exercise in the Desert - Patriots accelerated Internal Look 90 - a reason we moved so fast? Wargamers at war - the road not taken Wargames in the field The US training edge US
54 1990s US - Jointness Services Naval Global transformation event Army Initiates Title 10 wargame Air Force Initiates Title 10 wargame USMC Starts then stops Title 10 WG Joint Service Wargames talk to each other Fewer, more Joint engines JSIMS, JWARS
55 1990s Globally - Expanded Use Congressional Liaison Procurement Decisions Tactics Development Force Tradeoffs Growing use of virtual wargaming International Study US
56 DoD Wargaming at a Crossroads More money going to wargaming Relatively less expensive No environmental impact Secure from overhead observation Exploits more computing power for less money Credibility with Congress
57 DoD Wargaming at a Crossroads More money going to wargaming More doubts than any time since the late 40s - High Desert Storm Casualty Predictions - RAND s Base of Sand Paper - HQ USAF concerns - Irrelevance in armed conflict with Serbia - Competition from commercial wargames
58 DOD / Commercial War Games [Bottom Up] Operational Research Models History Based Wargames [Top Down] Analysis Training PME Prof Dev Recreation
59 The Rise of Commercial Wargaming More Accessible Wargames s Charles Roberts s Eric Dott & Avalon Hill s James Dunnigan & the S&T Staff s Chris Crawford & Gary Grigsby s 25 Billion dollar global industry s Computer Gaming passes Hollywood
60 The Rise of Commercial Wargaming More People Playing Wargames s Thousands s Tens of Thousands s Hundreds of Thousands s Millions s Tens of Millions s Billions
61 Commercial/DOD Integration History Based Wargames [Top Down] [Bottom Up] Operational Reasearch Models Analysis Training PME Prof Dev Recreation
62 Post 9/11 Old bothersome problems become major needs OEF too fast to wargame OIF This is not the enemy we wargamed against. Lt Gen Wallace, V Corps CC How do you wargame Phase IV?
63 Post 9/11 Navy: The death and rebirth of Global Groups Army: Pause in Futures USAF: AFWI to LeMay Center Wargaming Institute USMC: Sustaining the capability COCOMs: Millennial Challenge
64 Post 9/11 International: Connections UK, Australia, NL China s wargame Institute
65 Post Memos The return of conventional threats Secretary of Defense Innovation, wargaming Deputy Secretary reverse atrophy 2 Memos 2 Four Star Summits Incentive money Repository Support of practitioners International: Increased NATO interest
66 To Learn More The Art of Wargaming, Peter Perla, 1990 http// s/cc/caffrey.html On Wargaming, Matt Caffrey, 2018 (any day now)
67 Questions? Comments? Discussion? Material for the 2 nd Edition
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