Development of Russian Armed Forces in the Vicinity of Japan. Ministry of Defense, GOJ

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1 Development of Russian Armed Forces in the Vicinity of Japan Ministry of Defense, GOJ

2 Russia s Defense Budget & Modernization of Military Equipment Modernization of Military Equipment Against the backdrop of defense budget increase, Russia has been ambitiously modernizing its stagnant military equipment It is said that the State Armament Program (211-22) would allocate 2 trillion rubles over 1 years and renew 7% of its armament. Russia prioritizes procurement of New SSBNs & SLBMs and development of a new heavy ICBM, and also plans to deliver ships, aircraft, SSMs, SAMs, etc. (1 mil ruble) 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, (increased/decreased % compared with the previous year) *1 Source: Russian Federal Treasury s Information on Execution of Budgets of the Russian Federation *2 Figures of are executed amounts, figure of 217 is the initial budget amount of the year Borey-class SSBN Deployed at Pacific & Northern Fleets Equipped with 16 new SLBMs Bulava Range: 8,3km(max) Each warhead equipped with 1(max) MIRVs Impact of Defense Budget Reduction However, the financial situation has been difficult in recent years, and the budget for 217 fell by approximately 25% compared with the previous year. Future procurement of military equipment may be delayed due to the difficult financial situation. (Source: IHS Jane s, media report, etc. ) SSM Iskander SAM S-4 New short-range ballistic missile Range: 5km(max) New SAM with BMD capability Range: - aerodynamic targets: 25km(max)* - ballistic targets: 6km(max) Altitude: 27km(max) *It is said that there is also a long-range missile(4n6) with a maximum range of 4km. 1

3 Russian Armed Forces in the Far East(Eastern Military District) Although the scale of the Russian Armed Forces (RAF) in the Far East is much smaller than at its peak (1989), Russia maintains a considerable size of armed forces in the region including nuclear capability. In May 212, President Putin expressed a policy on the development of naval forces in the Far East and the Arctic region to protect its strategic national interest Russian military activities in the vicinity of Japan have a tendency to become more active. 15 Bar:Number of troops(thousand) Left:Major Surface ships Approx.14 Development of RAF in the Far East 43Div., Approx. 39 thousand troops Ground Forces Navy * Number of primary Division/Brigade in Eastern Military District(EMD) (Source: Defense White Paper) red line:division/brigade 1Div.& 11Brig.* Approx. 8 thousand troops Right:Submarines RAF maintains its strategic nuclear forces readiness as well as follows its basic operational concept to deal with conflicts by inter-theater mobilization of the RAF s permanent readiness forces. Given this fact, it is possible that mobilization among other areas and military districts may occur, and therefore, we also need to pay attention to military developments in other regions and military districts Approx Operation aircraft Approx. 2, Air Force ** Number of aircraft(air Force & Navy) deployed in EMD (1976:Release of Japan s Basic Defense Program 1976, 1989: RAF at its peak, 199: Start of Soviet armed forces reduction, 1995: Release of Japan s Basic Defense Program 1995) Approx. 2 Approx. 2 Approx. 39** 2

4 Recent Activities of Russian Armed Force(RAF) surrounding Japan RAF Exercise & Training Petropavlovsk SSBNs, etc. Tu-95(Strategic bomber) Large scale exercise Vostok-214 (Sep 214) was conducted at Kamchatka, Sakhalin, southern part of Primorsky region, etc. with more than 15 thousand troops, approximately 4 thousand vehicles, 8 vessels, and 63 aircraft. Il-38 (Anti-submarine warfare) Il-2 (Electronic intelligence) RAF Aircraft Activities Soya strait Average number of JASDF aircrafts scrambled against Russian aircraft per year is approximately 33 times over the past five years( ), and has a tendency to become more active. There were 3 cases of airspace violation in the past five years. Russian Strategic bombers have circled around Japanese archipelago about once or twice a year over the past five years. Ukrainka Strategic Bombers Vladivostok Surface ships, submarines, etc. Tsugaru strait :Airspace Violation Note: Flight & vessel navigational patterns are simplified images RAF Vessel Activities Average number of Russian naval vessels which passed through Soya, Tsugaru and Tsushima straits in the past five years( ) is approximately 8 vessels per year, and has a tendency to become more active. 1 or more Russian naval vessels have passed through Soya strait between once and three times per year in the past five years. Tsushima strait Slava class cruiser Sovremenny class destroyer (Source: Defense Whitepaper, Joint Staff press release, etc.) 3

5 Russian Armed Forces (RAF) in the Northern Territories (NT) Stationed Unit Units of 18 th Machine Gun-Artillery Division are stationed at Etorofu and Kunashiri islands (the number of deployed troops is 3,5) to defend against landing forces. 18 th Machine Gun-Artillery Division HQ 49 th Machine Gun-Artillery Regiment Etorofu Island Iturup (airport) Seseki Visits by the Russian President & Defense Minister In Nov 21, the then president Medvedev visited Kunashiri island for the first time as the head of the state. The then Defense Minister Serdyukov visited the NT in Feb of the following year. In Feb 211, the then president Medvedev instructed the then Defense Minister Serdyukov to take necessary steps to modernize the equipment in the Kuril (i.e., the NT and Chishima) islands. In Mar 211, Russian General Staff allegedly developed a detailed plan to renew equipment of forces stationed at the Kuril islands. Kunashiri Island Nikishoro Tennei (airport) 46 th Machine Gun-Artillery Regiment Shikotan Island Renewal of Equipment & Facility Development Tanks, MLRS, SAM, etc. are deployed at the NT. In Dec 215, Defense Minister Shoigu mentioned that Russia is actively developing military facility areas on Etorofu and Kunashiri islands, and plans to construct 392 buildings and constructions. In Mar 216, the Russian Defense Ministry announced that it plans to deploy surface-to-ship missiles (SSMs) Bastion (SSC-5) and Bal (SSC- 6) in the Kuril islands by the end of the year. (In Nov 216, the Pacific Fleet newspaper revealed that units equipped with SSMs Bastion and Bal were on duty in Etorofu and Kunashiri islands, respectively.) Main performance of SSMs deployed at NT SSM Bastion (SSC-5) Range: 3km Speed: 2,7km/h (Approx. Mach 2.2) Habomai Islands SSM Bal (SSC-6) Range: 13km Speed: 972km/h (Source: Defense Whitepaper, Russian MOD, IHS Jane s, media reports, etc.) 4

6 Military significance of Northern Territories (NT) and Chishima Islands from Russian viewpoint Comments from diplomatic magazines and media (Source: The National Interest, Russian media, Soviet Military Power 1989, etc.) The Kuril islands [i.e. NT and Chishima Islands] are important for major surface ships deployed at Vladivostok to maintain unfettered access to the Pacific. As its missile range became longer, the former Soviet Union developed so-called Bastion(fortress) Strategy that allowed them to easily defend their SSBNs, and the islands became even more valuable to Russia. Deployment of SSMs Bastion (SSC-5) to the island(etorofu Island) is intended to keep enemies away from the Sea of Okhotsk, which is a suitable area for new Borei-class and other SSBN (deployed at Petropavlovsk) activities. * Bastion(fortress) : U.S. DoD report Soviet Military Power 1989, etc., refer to bastion as the ex-soviet SSBN s operating area close to its territory protected by using shore, naval, and air assets in conjunction with topographical features. The Russian Northern fleet and Pacific fleet are believed to set bastion around the Barents Sea and the Sea of Okhotsk respectively. **According to media reports, there are plans to construct military bases at Matua and Paramushir islands starting from 218, as well as deploy surface-to-ship missiles (SSMs) Bastion (SSC-5) and Bal (SSC-6) at these islands (Russian government has not made any announcement on this matter) Izvestia & RIA Novosti, 29 Nov 217 Deployment of Russian military forces around Japan Illustrated ranges of SSMs (Image) * Because of sea-ice, it is usually difficult to pass through the Soya strait and straits around Etorofu and Kunashiri islands from January through April. the Sea of Okhotsk Petropavlovsk (SSBN etc.) Soya strait Bal (SSC-6) Range of 13km Bastion (SSC-5) Range of 3km Soya strait Paramushir island Matua island (survey conducted for development of a Pacific fleet base) Kunashiri Island Etorofu Island Vladivostok (major surface ship, etc.) Tsugaru strait Etorofu island (ground forces) Kunashiri island (ground forces) the Pacific Ocean Tsugaru strait Note: For simplification, the yellow circle is drawn with its center at Seseki Garrison at Etorofu and the light blue circle is drawn with its center at Nikishiro Garrison at Kunashiri. 5