U.S. Navy Arctic Engagement: Challenges & Opportunities

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1 U.S. Navy Engagement: Challenges & Opportunities CAPT Tim Gallaudet, Ph.D. Deputy Director, Task Force Climate Change / Office of the Oceanographer of the Navy November

2 Navy s Experience 1926 Admiral Byrd s first Over-flight of North Pole 1946 USS Midway tests carrier capabilities Sealift support to construct DEW line stations 1970 s Cold weather UNREP experiments 1990 s Submarines continue transits and research World War II: Dutch Harbor, Attu & Kiska Sealift support to enlarge Thule AFB 1958 Nautilus first under-ice transit SHAREMs 2000 s ARCTIC CARE, NORTHERN EDGE, PACER GOOSE, ICEX,SCICEX

3 Climate Change Update Sea Ice Continues to Melt & Thin 2010 Sea Ice Extent 3 rd Lowest on Record 2010 Ice Volume Lowest on Record 3

4 Considerations Today One Scenario + = The is not a vacuum changes in this region will impact others 4

5 Media Coverage Not necessarily representative of reality

6 Task Force Climate Change Composition Establishment Chief of Naval Operations Executive Board on May 15, 2009 Navy, NOAA, USCG in core group with Joint, interagency, international support Charter Global climate change impacts with near term focus Science-based approach, cooperative partnerships, risk assessments

7 Roadmap Drivers Roadmap Roadmap NSPD-66 QDR 2010 DoD Guidance CNO Task Force Climate Change TFCC Established Signed by VCNO CS-21 CNO Direction Ice Decline Maritime Strategy Maritime Strategy National Policy Defense Department Guidance 7

8 Navy Roadmap Framework Execution U.S. Navy Photo 8

9 Navy Outreach INTERAGENCY NATIONAL INTERNATIONAL DOD SCIENTIFIC, ACADEMIC, & ANALYTICAL Engaged nearly 450 individuals from over 125 organizations 9

10 Intelligence Assessment Overall risk for conflict is and will remain low through 2030 Economic & environmental factors drive state interest Council remains primary diplomatic forum nations seek to preserve sovereignty & avoid conflict Non- nations take economic interest Resolved in NOR-RUS agreement of 28 Apr Greatest sources for risk: Inadvertent RUS-NOR border incident Negative ECS claim evaluation Gradually escalating mutual fears Commercial activity remains limited through 2030 Shipping, oil, & gas extraction to grow after 2030 Fishing to grow but only gradually Tourism & maritime research will increase the most The Economist, Feb 2009 Harsh operating environment will remain the greatest limiting factor

11 Navy Strategic Objectives Signed by CNO on 21 May 2010 I. Contribute to safety, stability, & security in the region IV. Strengthen existing & foster new cooperative relationships in the region II. Safeguard U.S. maritime interests in the region V. Ensure Navy forces are capable and ready III. Protect the American people, our critical infrastructure, & key resources Towards the desired end state: a safe, stable, and secure 11

12 Navy Mission Analysis Will the scope of Navy mission requirements in the change? Regional Security expect participation in more exercises with allies. Maritime Security, MDA, SAR, HADR more likely & important as summer activity increases Force Projection, Sea Control unlikely due to low probability of conflict, no significant change DSCA no change in future requirement Ballistic Missile Defense no significant change expected in threat level. Mission Areas Strategic Deterrence Medium Medium Medium Medium Ballistic Missile Defense Low Low Medium Medium Sea Control Low Low Low Low Force Projection Medium Medium Medium Medium Maritime Security Low Medium Medium Medium Maritime Domain Awareness Low Low Medium Medium Search and Rescue Low Low Medium Medium Regional Security Cooperation Medium Medium Med/High Med/High HA/DR Low Low/Med Medium Med/High DSCA Low Low Low Low Criticality Ranking Criteria High Navy has primary role in Mission is very relevant in Medium Navy has secondary role in Mission is very relevant in OR Navy has primary role in Mission is somewhat relevant Low Mission not likely to be relevant in To achieve Navy s Strategic Objectives for the

13 Navy CBA To identify Navy capability gaps & solutions to mitigate them 13

14 Ongoing Navy Activity Education Policy, Strategy, & Plans Naval Post Graduate School Science & Security dissertations science & security Study topics at US Naval Academy Studies & Assessments Naval War College courses address Science & Security Topics Support to 2010 QDR Roadmap Operations & Training Navy Strategic Objectives Exploring New Cooperative Partnerships Care 2010 ONI Intelligence Assessment Naval Mission Analysis Naval Capability Based Assessment Outreach & Engagement Naval Studies Board study Northern Edge 2009 OSD Tabletop Exercises Science & Research glider UUV demonstration Operation NANOOK/NATSIQ NSS Interagency Policy Committee State Department Policy Group Conferences, Symposia, Media events Advocate for UNCLOS NRL research cruises Interagency partnership For air-ocean-ice numerical prediction Science Ice Exercise Plan Improve understanding Ensure readiness (resilience) 14

15 Other Activity About the Finland Strategy Council SAR MOU Draft Russian Strategy Council Reaffirms UNCLOS Canada National Policy Within the Vigilant Eagle 2010 Multiple NSR transits to China Chinese research cruises US & Other International Research Crossroads 2010 US-CAN ECS survey NWP cruise ship grounding Russian Oil Tankers Collide & non- actors are engaged 15

16 What s Next? NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR Studies & Assessments Fleet Readiness Assessment Navy Capabilities Based Assessment Operations & Training Outreach & Engagement USEUCOM Zephyr Workshop ICEX-11 FIN-CAN Conference OSD-SERDP Symposium American Geophysical Union Frontiers Conference OSD(I&E) DEIC Partnership Roundtable Science & Research POAM for Interagency partnership for air-ocean-ice numerical prediction Monitor DARPA HALE UAV Program ( Vulture )

17 Navy Dashboard Environmental Ice Extent (M Km 2 ) Sea Ice Anomaly (1000 Km 3 ) Commerical NWP/NSR Transits Cruise Ship Arrivals (Greenland) Security USN Activity Surface ship days u/w? Submarine days u/w? Aircraft flight hours? Port visits? Exercises? Foreign Military Activity Surface ship days u/w? Submarine days u/w? Aircraft flight hours? Port visits? Exercises? 17 Standardized data collection to identify trends

18 Challenges & Opportunities Are we doing enough? - ADM Gary Roughead receeding ice and the possibility of that shipping area being open during the good part of the year, this is something that we would clearly have to address and invest some resources in -SEC Robert Gates The first thing I would do if someone invaded Canada from the North would be to rescue them. -VADM McFadden 18

19 Questions? 19 13