South Asia Under the Shadow of Nuclear Weapons
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1 South Asia Under the Shadow of Nuclear Weapons Vipin Narang MIT Department of Political Science IAP 22 January 2015 Image is in the public domain. 1
2 The Puzzle Image removed due to copyright restrictions Please see for more details. Image removed due to copyright restrictions Please see for more details. 2
3 Outline Basics of Deterrence Theory Basics of Nuclear Weapons The Nuclearization of South Asia The Consequences of Nuclearization in South Asia How Long can this Precarious Balance of Terror Last? 3
4 Deterrence Theory Deterrence: Preservation of the status quo by threatening unacceptable costs to an opponent if they do X. Two Types of Deterrence Deterrence by Punishment Deterrence by Denial 4
5 Deterrence Theory Three requirements (aka the Three C s): Capability Credibility Communication 5
6 Nuclear Weapons & Deterrence Nuclear weapons fundamentally different? Explosive yields Missile age Psychological impact 6
7 Nuclear Weapons Courtesy of the National Nuclear Security Administration. Image is in the public domain. 7
8 Basics of Nuclear Weapons Fission weapons (5-40kT) U-235 (enriched uranium) Pu-239 (plutonium from reprocessing) Boosted Fission weapons (~200kT) Fission weapon plus Tritium/Deuterium gas (or Li-D) Fusion weapons (Megaton yields) Fission primary to ignite a fusion secondary (D-T) 8
9 Operationalizing Nuclear Weapons: How many and what type? Nuclear Posture How to deliver them? Aircraft Ballistic Missiles (Land based & Sea-based) Cruise Missiles How to manage them? 9
10 Operationalizing Nuclear Weapons: Nuclear Posture Deterring what? Deter nuclear use and coercion? Assured Retaliation Mostly deterrence by punishment Deter conventional aggression? First-use Can be deterrence by punishment or denial 10
11 The Nuclearization of South Asia Image courtesy of Antonio Milena. License CC-BY. 11
12 India through 1974 India s Security Environment 1962 War Chinese nuclear tests Persistent wars with Pakistan, despite conventional superiority India s Civilian Nuclear Program CANDU 40 MW reactor 1954 Reprocessing facility
13 India through 1974 Peaceful Nuclear Explosion 1974 General security environment Domestic political explanation Power of scientific bureaucracy Nuclear hedging 13
14 Pakistan s Pakistan s Security Environment Impact of 1971 War We will eat grass or leaves, or even go hungry. But we will get [a Bomb] of our own (Bhutto 1965) January 1972, Bhutto authorizes nuclear weapons program Pakistan s Nuclear Program Yes we Khan (URENCO) Uranium enrichment: The goat shed at Kahuta U.S. role in Afghanistan 14
15 Pakistan Late-1980s Slow March to Nuclearization 1983 Chinese assistance (CHIC-4 design; 50kg HEU?) 1986: US convinced Pakistan is nuclear-capable but perhaps not nuclear-weapons state ( two screwdriver turns away) March 1987: Zia claims Pakistan has capability to make a bomb 1988: Congressman Solarz quips Pakistan has a Saturday night special capability: ambiguous but effective 15
16 India Dormancy: Covert Weaponization: Rajiv Gandhi brings program out of dormancy Weapons designs, miniaturization, production capability developed Delivery capabilities developed/tested 16
17 India 1990s March to Overt Weaponization December 1995: Rao (INC) on brink of test March 1996: BJP aborts test May 1998: BJP returns to office, tests 5 fission devices at Pokhran Several plausible explanations (security, domestic politics, status) 17
18 India 1998-present India s Nuclear Posture: Assured Retaliation Civilian custody of nuclear weapons DAE DRDO SFC Deterring nuclear use against Indian cities: Deterrence by Punishment No First Use 18
19 Pakistan 1998-present Steady expansion Uranium Enrichment Plutonium production and reprocessing goes online Delivery capabilities bought from China and North Korea (M-11, M-18, No-Dong) Overt Nuclearization Indian tests left Pakistan with no option in May
20 Pakistan 1998-present Pakistan s Nuclear Posture: First Use Military custody of nuclear weapons Asymmetric escalation of conflict to deter Indian conventional power: Deterrence by Denial Development of battlefield nuclear weapons: NASR, Ra ad, Babur 20
21 Consequences of Nuclearization: Phase I (Covert Nuclear Period ) Conventional Wisdom: MAD is stabilizing Hefty Assumptions South Asia different from Cold War Effect on Crisis Outbreak Pakistan slightly emboldened to support proxy forces India undeterred and has preventive war incentives Two Militarized Crises in this period Brasstacks Kashmir Compound Crisis
22 Consequences of Nuclearization: Phase II (Overt Nuclear Period ) Effect on Crisis Outbreak Pakistan more aggressively emboldened Revisionist intentions able to pursued with higher frequency and intensity at both conventional and subconventional levels India significantly deterred from conventional retaliation 22
23 Kargil 1999 Courtesy of the US Navy. Image is in the public domain. 23
24 Kargil 1999 India deterred from retaliating? Expected BJP response: aggressive Actual BJP response: muted Constrained IAF and Army from crossing LoC and IB Costly curtailing of military options for fear of triggering Pakistani nuclear use 24
25 Operation Parakram Dec 13, 2001: January 2002: May 14, 2002: June 2002: June 2002: October 2002: Pakistani-backed Parliament attack BJP contemplates limited war Pakistani-backed Kaluchak massacre BJP prepares for largescale conventional war Pakistan explicitly threatens nuclear use BJP demobilizes Based on: VK Sood and Pravin Sawhney, Operation Parakram:The War Unfinished, Map Library. Some rights reserved. CC BY-SA. This content is excluded from our Creative Commons license. For more information, see 25
26 Operation Parakram Most likely case for an aggressive BJP response BJP balks in June Why? Power of Pakistan s first use posture 26
27 Mumbai 2008 Lashkar attacks on Mumbai, 26 November 2008 Congress refrains from conventional retaliation Former CoAS: Pakistan s posture deterred Indian retaliation But when the dust settled, all [the principals] agreed that the unpredictability on the Pakistan side and the fear that its decision makers could opt for a disproportionate response, including the nuclear option, stymied any possible chance of military action on India s behalf after 26/11. Indian Express, 26 November
28 Summary for Phase II Effect on Crisis Outbreak More frequent and intense crises triggered by Pakistan Emboldened by shield of first use nuclear posture Effect on Crisis Stability Crises capped now because Indian full-scale conventional retaliatory options are off the table 28
29 How Long Can this Last? Indian frustration: Traded conventional superiority for Pakistani subconventional aggression Revisions at conventional level: Cold Start? Consequences of this shift? What effect will Cold Start have on Pakistan s conventional and nuclear postures? Indian response to deter battlefield nuclear weapons Pakistani use of proxy forces as strategic policy Dangerous arms race + Fuse for crises under quasisovereign control (e.g. LeT) = A region on the brink 29
30 MIT OpenCourseWare RES Reducing the Danger of Nuclear Weapons and Proliferation January IAP 2015 For information about citing these materials or our Terms of Use, visit:
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