Road to War & Situation Briefing. Erich Hoffmann

Transcription

1 Road to War & Situation Briefing Erich Hoffmann

2 The SKOLKAN Story Road to War Falling into War

3 Skolkan Geo Strategic Situation SKOLKAN NATIONS & NEIGHBORS NATO UNCLASSIFIED REL EERCISE

4 Torrike Overview: Heartland of the former Skolkan Empire that seeks regional dominance Political: Authoritarian democracy Aggressive and proactive policies Recognised as a difficult member of the UN Seeks reintegration of Arnland, Framland and Bothnia Relationship of mutual self interest with Dushman Military: Large, well equipped, well trained and very capable Doctrine that supports power projection Upgrading Ballistic Missile Force Highly developed EW/SIGINT and Cyber capabilities NATO UNCLASSIFIED REL EERCISE

5 Bothnia Overview: An old-fashioned People s Republic, with significant military capability and a political will to use it Political: Socialist one party state of Bothnian Democratic Republic Mildly paranoid mindset Strategically backed by Dushman Relations with most neighbours are difficult and particularly poor with EST Linked to other potential aggressors through SCO Military: Bothnian Peoples Army (BPA) is large organisation with large reserve forces Well equipped and capable Aggressive doctrine with history of military innovation and bold thinking Effective TBM and cyber capabilities NATO UNCLASSIFIED REL EERCISE

6 Lindsey Overview: Strategically located, a paranoid country seeking international recognition Political: Single party dominated over the last 50 years Relatively new wealth from oil industry Aggressive and disruptive approach to regional matters Strategically backed by Tolima Opposed to NATO involvement in the region Military: Lindsey Defence Force (LDF) a mix of full time professionals and active reservists Well trained, motivated, and equipped Defensive doctrine Layered Defence focused on Air and Maritime domains Major TBM capability Effective EW and Cyber capability NATO UNCLASSIFIED REL EERCISE

7 Arnland Overview: Gateway to Skolkan from Europe, suffering from corruption, Organised Crime and terrorism. Political: Seeks to maintain independence and become member of EU Flawed election process Political system heavily influenced by corruption Links to Organised Crime (OC) at all levels Military: Large, old-fashioned, poorly equipped, corrupt and badly manned Conscript based Officer corps reasonably well trained Efficient SOF capability Competent TBM force without clear purpose NATO UNCLASSIFIED REL EERCISE

8 Otso Overview: Neutral nation that will not be drawn into regional conflicts Political: Constitutional monarchy and a parliamentary democracy Neutral policy with a strong democracy Worldwide diplomatic representation Vocal and effective member of the UN Military: Extremely competent Small but sufficient force Mixture of professional personnel and reservists Major asset in UN peacekeeping and humanitarian missions NATO UNCLASSIFIED REL EERCISE

9 Framland Overview: Nominally neutral, broadly pro-nato and pro-eu, but in the interest of maintaining good relations in the region, not a member of either Political: Pro-western, democratic, constitutional monarchy Not given to political alliances Strong supporter of the UN with a broadly pro-nato outlook Active proponent of stability in the region Military: Military posture reflects their military stance of neutrality Fully professional, but only 20,000 strong Adequate capability for the needs of the nation Priority in defence of sovereign borders and security of energy infrastructure NATO UNCLASSIFIED REL EERCISE

10 Skolkan Geo strategic Situation ETERNAL ACTORS NATO UNCLASSIFIED REL EERCISE

11 Dushman Overview: Dominant power in East Asia and a significant world power, strong supporter of Torrike and Bothnia Political: A Democratic People s Republic and member of the UN Maintains strong support for Torrike and Bothnia in order to increase its influence in Europe and ensure access to the region s natural resources Provides infrastructure development assistance and engineering technology to both countries Major source of military hardware for both Torrike and Bothnia Privately been a significant supporter of the 'Greater Skolkan' aspirations of Torrike NATO UNCLASSIFIED REL EERCISE

12 Tolima Overview: Dominant power in South America and a significant regional power, strategic backer of Lindsey Political: A Democratic Republic and member of the UN Strong supporter of Lindsey in order to increase its influence in Europe and ensure access to the region s energy Provided infrastructure development assistance and petroleum industry technology, including investing heavily in oil production and refining to Lindsey Major source of military hardware for Lindsey Disapproves of NATO missions and of the organisation as a whole NATO UNCLASSIFIED REL EERCISE

13 Novus Ordo Mundi (NOM) Overview: Operational footprint mostly in Arnland, but cells also identified in other Skolkan countries such as Torrike and Bothnia Political: Marxist/Leninism ideology Want Arnland to revert to the former communist regime Anti-capitalist and anti-western agenda mixed with an extreme environmentalist agenda Extensive network of linkages Numerous sympathizers among leftist radical elements Military: Well organized, equipped and funded Linked to facilitation networks with international reach and scope Media savvy with active Info Ops campaign Cyber terror capable Association with global cyber group Unknowns Skilled planning and execution NATO UNCLASSIFIED REL EERCISE

14 THE STORY BEGINS

15 These geo-political realities: Discovery and exploitation of oil and gas throughout SKOLKAN Interest, support, and sponsorship of Dushman and Tolima US disengagement in Europe Gave rise to: A greater interest in regional and global affairs A regional pride in SKOLKAN s growing importance Popular rediscovery of Hanseatic lore and history A yearning to expand influence The circumstances were ripe for visionary leadership. It was Torrike that imagined that vision and Torrike that assumed leadership in SKOLKAN

16 Torrike Outreach Across SKOLKAN and beyond Hanseatic Dual Citizenship Program (HDCP) Give me your tired, your poor, Your huddled masses Hanseatic Foreign Legion Demonstrated interest in joining NATO and the EU ß Denied! Free trade throughout SKOLKAN Cooperation Organization (SCO) Anglo-American Investment Incentive All of the programs were on behalf of all of SCO. However, Torrike was the visionary and the leader in their establishment, evolution, and maintenance.

17 2016; The Year that everything changed STAT Oil suffers a Massive BP-like oil spill off of the coast of Norway NOM, in conjunction with The Unknowns attack STAT oil executives bank accounts in Bank of Norway: Money begins to drain from Bank of Norway STAT Oil s sister company, TELCOR, begins to suffer the same damage Foreign investors begin to lose confidence in STAT Oil and TELCOR Norway s welfare system (60% dependent on STAT Oil) implements austerity measures

18 2016; The Year that everything changed (cont) Political backlash from austerity measures Evidence of government cover-up of STAT Oil culpability in original oil-spill Lethal attacks from NOM in response to government cover-up Massive reliance on Norwegian wealth fund to prevent loan/currency collapse

19 2016; SCO (Led by Torrike) to Norway s Rescue Citing NOM as a major part of the problem; Torrike invades Arnland to eradicate NOM. Torrike and Lindsey provide substantial money to save STAT Oil, TELCOR, and Bank of Norway Norway leases a series of strategically placed air and naval bases to Lindsey

20 2016; New realities at the end of the year Lindsey has extended its naval presence to command the North Sea and access to the Baltic Sea Torrike has made Arnland a vassal state Torrike is recognized as the leader of SKOLKAN Norway is indebted to Lindsey and Torrike Bothnia continues to have disputes with Baltic nations

21 2017; Confrontation between Bothnia and Estonia Bothnia and Estonia haggle over territorial rights of an island off of coast of Estonia Remember the important features about Bothnia: Mildly paranoid mindset Strategically backed by Dushman Relations with most neighbors are difficult and particularly poor with Estonia Linked to other potential aggressors through SCO Sets the stage for the war that began in 2015

22 Road to War SKOLKAN Advances!

23 Phase I: The Baltic States Estonia: Prior to the invasion, MNC-NE was only able to get one BN of the 173 rd into Estonia before the enemy IADS became active and enemy airstrikes began. All other air movement into Estonia was diverted to Riga. Estonia was defended by four Estonian BDEs and one BN from 173 rd. Latvia: MNC-NE began building a deliberate defense north of Riga with forces arriving from across Europe. The defense consisted of: four Latvian BDEs, 15 th Mechanized BDE and 11 th ARTY RGT from Poland, as well as 2CR and the rest of 173 rd ABN BDE. The NATO VJTF arrived in Riga with one BN from: The 2 nd Legion Mech BDE from Poland, 6 th Light Armored BDE from France, and the 72 nd Slovenian BDE. Lithuania: Riga fell on D +27 with only a small percentage of the defending forces escaping to Lithuania. Bothnian forces were also damaged during the siege with the 9 th Bothnian Mech Division at only 54% following the battle. However, the 10 th Bothnian Mech Division avoided most of the heavy fighting and was able to push to the Lithuanian border where a much heavier NATO force was defending the border centered on Mech BDEs from Germany, US, Poland, Lithuania, and France. On D +30, Bothnian reinforcements (1 st Mechanized Division) arrived in Riga and Bothnia launched a second offensive that pushed the NATO defenses back to Kaunas. On D+33 the offensive stalemated just before a series of heavy winter storms blanketed the region. Bothnian and NATO forces held these positions through the winter as NATO reinforcements poured into Germany.

24 Phase I: Invasion

25 Phase I: Latvian Invasion

26 Phase I: Lithuanian Invasion

27 Phase I: Lithuanian Operational Pause

28 Lithuania (D+30 D+33): D+30, Bothnian reinforcements (1 st Mechanized Division), conducted 2 nd offensive that pushed the NATO defenses back to Kaunas, LVA D+33 the offensive stalemated just before heavy winter storms

29 (-) 2 9 III 23 III 4 III 5 7 III 8 III LITH USA 18 FA C+36 / D+32 Red Forces SLO 2 UK 11 UK 1 UK 8 MI UK 1 USA (-) LITH USA 2/82 USA 1-3 FRA 9

30 Phase I: Defense of Suwalki Gap 82 nd Abn Div and 1/3 ABCT sent to rear for reconstitution MNC-NE shortened internal LOC: Along the Neman River IOT Defend Suwalki Gap 4 ID task organized with: 173 ABCT 2CR 1 AR BDE Others TBD Multinational Division (determine a new name) with remainder of brigades in theater Develop a 4 ID OPORD for deliberate defense (serves as HICON OPORD for 3/4 ABCT STAFFE)

31 CONCEPT OF THE OPERATION OVERLAY OPERATION SUWALKI SHIELD YOU SHALL NOT PASS! PL SPEAR PL RED PL SHIELD 1 1 PL SPEAR Concept of Operation Scheme of Sceme of Manuever. NLT Feb2018 1ID (DAN) defends to disrupt, neutralize, and destroy attacking Bothnian forces. PL DEAD PL SWORD 2 RAF BCT 3 RAF BCT 173 ABC T 1 ST BDE () BSA 1 RAF BCT IRON WOLF (LTU) PL SWORD PL RED PL SHIELD PL DEAD 12ID () 173 ABCT (US) defends in sector to disrupt, neutralize, and destroy attacking Bothnian forces. IRON WOLF BDE (LTU) (Main Effort) defends in sector to disrupt, neutralize, and destroy attacking Bothnian forces. 1AR BDE () (Division Reserve) and 2CR defends in sector to destroy attacking Bothnian forces. O/O conduct re-enforcing counter attack in support of 173 ABCT and/or Iron Wolf BDE (LTU). PL STEEL PL HAWK 1ID (DAN) 2CR 12CAB (US) 5 TH BDE () PL HAWK PL STEEL 5 ENG BDE () supports maneuver BDEs IOT establishing area defense and destroy attacking Bothnian forces. 12CAB conducts supporting attacks IOT disrupt, neutralize, and destroy attacking Bothnian forces.

32 Questions on Road to War

33 Questions?