ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey Hungary

Transcription

1 ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey Hungary 3 18

2 The ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey for the third quarter 18 was conducted by interviewing a representative sample of 762 employers in Hungary. All survey participants were asked, How do you anticipate total employment at your location to change in the three months to the end of September 18 as compared to the current quarter? Hungary Employment Outlook Contents Hungary Employment Outlook 2 Regional Comparisons 3 Sector Comparisons 8 Organisation-Size Comparisons 14 About the Survey 15 About ManpowerGroup 16 2 ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey

3 Hungary Employment Outlook Increase Decrease No change Don t know Net Employement Rate Seasonally Adjusted % % % % % % Jul-Sept Apr-Jun Jan-Mar Oct-Dec Jul-Sept Hungary +19 (+21)% Hungary joined the survey in Q3 9. No bar indicates of zero. Hungarian employers report active hiring plans for the third quarter of 18. With 24% of employers anticipating an increase in staffing levels, 3% forecasting a decrease and 73% expecting no change, the is +21%. Once the data is adjusted to allow for seasonal variation, the Outlook stands at +19%, matching the strongest since the survey began nine years ago, last reported in 3Q 17. Hiring prospects remain relatively stable when compared with the previous quarter, and are unchanged in comparison with this time one year ago. Throughout this report, we use the term Net Employment Outlook. This figure is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating total employment to increase and subtracting from this the percentage expecting to see a decrease in employment at their location in the next quarter. The result of this calculation is the Net Employment Outlook. From this point forward, all data discussed in the commentary is seasonally adjusted, unless stated otherwise. Manpower Munkaerő-piaci Előrejelzés 3

4 Regional Comparisons Payrolls are forecast to grow in all eight regions during the July-September period. The strongest labor market is anticipated in Southern Transdanubia, where employers report a healthy of +24%. Solid job gains are also expected in two regions with Outlooks of +21% Northern Hungary and Southern Great Plain. In Central Transdanubia, employers report upbeat hiring plans with an Outlook of +19%, while Outlooks stand at +17% in both Central Hungary and Western Transdanubia. The weakest hiring prospects for the coming quarter are reflected in Outlooks of +16% for Budapest and Northern Great Plain. When compared with the previous quarter, hiring intentions weaken in four of the eight regions, most notably by 5 percentage points in Northern Great Plain, and by 4 percentage points in Central Transdanubia. However, Outlooks strengthen in three regions, including Southern Transdanubia, with an increase of 9 percentage points, and Southern Great Plain, where employers report an improvement of 3 percentage points. Hiring prospects improve in four of the eight regions when compared with the third quarter of 17. A considerable increase of 11 percentage points is reported in Southern Transdanubia, and Outlooks are 6 and 5 percentage points stronger in Northern Hungary and Southern Great Plain, respectively. Meanwhile, hiring plans weaken in four regions, most notably by percentage points in Central Hungary. The Budapest Outlook declines by 6 percentage points, while Northern Great Plain employers report a decrease of 5 percentage points. Budapest Central Hungary Central Transdanubia Northern Great Plain Northern Hungary Southern Great Plain Southern Transdanubia Western Transdanubia Manpower Munkaerő-piaci Előrejelzés

5 +16 (+19)% Budapest Job seekers can expect a favorable hiring climate in 3Q 18, according to employers who report a of +16%. However, hiring intentions decline by 2 percentage points when compared with the previous quarter, and are 6 percentage points weaker in comparison with this time one year ago No bar indicates of zero. +17 (+24)% Central Hungary Positive payroll gains are forecast for the July-September time frame, with employers reporting a of +17%. However, hiring prospects decline by 2 and percentage points quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, respectively No bar indicates of zero. Manpower Munkaerő-piaci Előrejelzés 5

6 +19 (+19)% Central Transdanubia Reporting a of +19%, employers anticipate a steady hiring pace during the next three months. Hiring plans decline by 4 percentage points when compared with the previous quarter, but remain relatively stable in comparison with 3Q No bar indicates of zero. +16 (+16)% Northern Great Plain Employers forecast respectable job gains during 3Q 18, reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +16%. However, hiring prospects decline by 5 percentage points in comparison with both 2Q 18 and 3Q No bar indicates of zero. 6 Manpower Munkaerő-piaci Előrejelzés

7 +21 (+)% Northern Hungary In the third quarter of 18, employers continue to anticipate the strongest labor market since the survey began nine years ago, reporting a of +21% for the second consecutive quarter. Year-over-year, the Outlook improves by 6 percentage points No bar indicates of zero. +21 (+24)% Southern Great Plain The strongest hiring pace since the survey began nine years ago is forecast for the July- September period. Employers report a of +21%, improving by 3 percentage points in comparison with the previous quarter, and by 5 percentage points when compared with this time one year ago Seasonally Adjusted No bar indicates of zero. Manpower Munkaerő-piaci Előrejelzés 7

8 +24 (+25)% Southern Transdanubia Job seekers can expect to benefit from the strongest labor market since the survey began nine years ago, according to employers who report a of +24% for the upcoming quarter. Hiring intentions are considerably stronger both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, increasing by 9 and 11 percentage points, respectively Seasonally Adjusted No bar indicates of zero. +17 (+17)% Western Transdanubia With a of +17%, employers forecast steady workforce gains in the next three months. The Outlook improves by 2 percentage points when compared with the previous quarter, but declines by 2 percentage points when compared with the third quarter of No bar indicates of zero. 8 Manpower Munkaerő-piaci Előrejelzés

9 Sector Comparisons Staffing levels are expected to increase in all nine industry sectors during 3Q 18. The strongest labor market is anticipated by Manufacturing sector employers with a healthy of +28%. Solid payroll gains are also anticipated in the Transport, Storage & Communication sector, where the Outlook is +24%, and in two sectors with Outlooks of +23% the Construction sector and the Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Business Services sector. Elsewhere, employers forecast upbeat hiring activity in the Wholesale & Retail Trade sector and the Electricity, Gas & Water sector, with Outlooks of +19% and +17%, respectively. Meanwhile, the weakest sector Outlook of +% is reported in the Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry & Fishing sector. In comparison with the previous quarter, hiring plans improve in six of the nine industry sectors. Manufacturing sector employers report the most notable increase of 7 percentage points, while Outlooks are 4 percentage points stronger in both the Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Business Services sector and the Wholesale & Retail Trade sector. However, hiring intentions weaken in three sectors, including considerable declines of 13 and 9 percentage points reported for the Construction sector and the Public & Social sector, respectively. Hiring prospects improve in four of the nine industry sectors when compared with the third quarter of 17. Electricity, Gas & Water sector employers report the most noteworthy increase of 8 percentage points, while the Outlook for the Wholesale & Retail Trade sector improves by 5 percentage points. Meanwhile, Outlooks weaken in four sectors, including the Construction sector with a considerable decline of 11 percentage points, and the Restaurants & Hotels sector, where employers report a decrease of 4 percentage points. Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry & Fishing Construction Electricity, Gas & Water Supply Finance & Business Services Manufacturing 28 Public & Social Restaurants & Hotels Transport, Storage & Communication Wholesale & Retail Trade Manpower Munkaerő-piaci Előrejelzés 9

10 + (+14)% Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry & Fishing Job seekers can expect a moderate hiring pace in the July-September time frame, according to employers who report a of +%. The Outlook improves by 3 percentage points when compared with the previous quarter, and is unchanged in comparison with 3Q No bar indicates of zero. +23 (+24)% Construction Employers forecast solid payroll gains in the third quarter of 18, reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +23%. However, hiring plans are considerably weaker both quarterover-quarter and year-over-year, declining by 13 and 11 percentage points, respectively No bar indicates of zero. Manpower Munkaerő-piaci Előrejelzés

11 +17 (+16)% Electricity, Gas & Water The upbeat hiring pace is expected to continue in the upcoming quarter, with employers reporting a of +17%. Hiring prospects remain relatively stable in comparison with 2Q 18, and improve by 8 percentage points when compared with this time one year ago No bar indicates of zero. +23 (+23)% Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Business Services The strongest labor market since the survey began nine years ago is anticipated during the next three months. Employers report an optimistic of +23%, improving by 4 percentage points when compared with both 2Q 18 and 3Q No bar indicates of zero. Manpower Munkaerő-piaci Előrejelzés 11

12 +28 (+)% Manufacturing A healthy increase in staffing levels is likely in the third quarter of 18, according to employers who report a of +28%. Hiring intentions are 7 percentage points stronger when compared with the previous quarter, but decline by 2 percentage points in comparison with this time one year ago No bar indicates of zero. +11 (+11)% Public & Social Employers forecast respectable payroll gains in 3Q 18, reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +11%. While the Outlook declines by 9 percentage points quarter-over-quarter, employers report a year-over-year improvement of 3 percentage points No bar indicates of zero. 12 Manpower Munkaerő-piaci Előrejelzés

13 +13 (+18)% Restaurants & Hotels Reporting a of +13%, employers anticipate a steady hiring pace in the forthcoming quarter. Hiring plans improve by 2 percentage points in comparison with the previous quarter, but are 4 percentage points weaker when compared with the third quarter of No bar indicates of zero. +24 (+26)% Transport, Storage & Communication Solid workforce gains are expected in the July-September period, with employers reporting a of +24%. Hiring prospects are 3 percentage points stronger in comparison with 2Q 18, but decline by 3 percentage points year-over-year No bar indicates of zero. Manpower Munkaerő-piaci Előrejelzés 13

14 +19 (+19)% Wholesale & Retail Trade Job seekers can expect upbeat hiring activity in the third quarter of 18, according to employers who report a of +19%. Hiring intentions improve by 4 percentage points when compared with the previous quarter, and by 5 percentage points when compared with this time one year ago No bar indicates of zero. 14 Manpower Munkaerő-piaci Előrejelzés

15 Organization Size Comparisons Participating employers are categorized into one of four organization sizes: Micro businesses have less than employees; Small businesses have -49 employees; Medium businesses have employees; and Large businesses have 25 or more employees. When compared with 2Q 18, hiring plans decline in three of the four organization size categories. Small employers report a decrease of 4 percentage points, while Outlooks are 3 and 2 percentage points weaker for Large- and Medium-size employers, respectively. However, Micro employers report a moderate improvement of 8 percentage points. Job gains are forecast for all four organization size categories during the upcoming quarter. Large employers report robust hiring intentions with a Net Employment Outlook of +32%, while Medium employers anticipate solid payroll gains, reporting an Outlook of +24%. Elsewhere, Outlooks stand at +16% and +13% for Micro- and Small-size employers, respectively. Hiring intentions are 3 percentage points stronger for Large employers when compared with this time one year ago, and also improve by 2 percentage points in the Micro employer category. Meanwhile, Outlooks remain relatively stable for Small- and Medium-size employers. Organisation-Size Increase Decrease No Change Don t Know Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted % % % % % % Micro-Size fewer than Small-Size Medium-Size Large-Size 25 or more Micro-Size fewer than Small-Size -49 Medium-Size Large-Size or more Graph displays Seasonally Adjusted Data Manpower Munkaerő-piaci Előrejelzés 15

16 About the ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey The ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey is conducted quarterly to measure employers intentions to increase or decrease the number of employees in their workforces during the next quarter. ManpowerGroup s comprehensive forecast of employer hiring plans has been running for more than 55 years and is one of the most trusted surveys of employment activity in the world. Various factors underpin the success of the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey: Methodology The ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey is conducted using a validated methodology, in accordance with the highest standards in market research. The survey has been structured to be representative of each national economy. The margin of error for all national, regional and global data is not greater than +/- 3.9%. Unique: It is unparalleled in its size, scope, longevity and area of focus. Projective: The ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey is the most extensive, forward-looking employment survey in the world, asking employers to forecast employment over the next quarter. In contrast, other surveys and studies focus on retrospective data to report on what occurred in the past. Independent: The survey is conducted with a representative sample of employers from throughout the countries and territories in which it is conducted. The survey participants are not derived from ManpowerGroup s customer base. Robust: The survey is based on interviews with over 6, public and private employers across 44 countries and territories to measure anticipated employment trends each quarter. This sample allows for analysis to be performed across specific sectors and regions to provide more detailed information. Throughout this report, we use the term Net Employment Outlook. This figure is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating an increase in hiring activity and subtracting from this the percentage of employers expecting to see a decrease in employment at their location in the next quarter. The result of this calculation is the. s for countries and territories that have accumulated at least 17 quarters of data are reported in a seasonally adjusted format unless otherwise stated. Seasonal adjustments have been applied to the data for all participating countries except Croatia and Portugal. ManpowerGroup intends to add seasonal adjustments to the data for other countries in the future, as more historical data is compiled. Note that in Quarter 2 8, ManpowerGroup adopted the TRAMO-SEATS method of seasonal adjustment for data. Focused: For more than 55 years the survey has derived all of its information from a single question: For the 3Q 18 research, all employers participating in the survey worldwide are asked the same question, How do you anticipate total employment at your location to change in the three months to the end of September 18 as compared to the current quarter? 16 Manpower Munkaerő-piaci Előrejelzés

17 About ManpowerGroup ManpowerGroup (NYSE: MAN), the leading global workforce solutions company, helps organizations transform in a fast-changing world of work by sourcing, assessing, developing and managing the talent that enables them to win. We develop innovative solutions for hundreds of thousands of organizations every year, providing them with skilled talent while finding meaningful, sustainable employment for millions of people across a wide range of industries and skills. Our expert family of brands Manpower, Experis, Right Management and ManpowerGroup Solutions creates substantially more value for candidates and clients across 8 countries and territories and has done so for 7 years. In 18, ManpowerGroup was named one of the World s Most Ethical Companies for the ninth year and one of Fortune s Most Admired Companies for the sixteenth year, confirming our position as the most trusted and admired brand in the industry. See how ManpowerGroup is powering the future of work: ManpowerGroup Hungary Váci road 76. Budapest 1133 Tel: Fax: ManpowerGroup All rights reserved Manpower Munkaerő-piaci Előrejelzés 17