NATIONAL SECURITY CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE THREAT OF. Sherri Goodman General Counsel, CNA

Transcription

1 NATIONAL SECURITY Sherri Goodman General Counsel, CNA AND THE THREAT OF CLIMATE CHANGE A Research Agenda for Managing the Health Risks of Climate Change A Workshop hosted by the Institute of Medicine 15 January 2009

2 Climate Change as a National Security Risk What adverse conditions are climate changes likely to produce around the world? IF TRENDS CONTINUE.ADVERSE? What are the ways in which these conditions may affect America s national security interests? CAN TRENDS AFFECT SECURITY? What actions should the nation take to address the national security consequences of climate change? WHAT CAN WE (NATIONAL SECURITY COMMUNITY) DO? 2

3 US Military Leaders Examine Climate Change CNA study: Advisory Board: 11 Retired Flag and General Officers Director: Ms. Sherri Goodman General Counsel to CNA Former Deputy Undersecretary of Defense (Environmental Security) Staff: CNA Review Panel Briefings: Scientists, Government Officials (US, UN & UK), Industry 3

4 Military Advisory Board (MAB) GEN Gordon R. Sullivan (Ret.), Chairman ADM Frank Skip Bowman (Ret.) Lt Gen Lawrence P. Farrell Jr. (Ret.) VADM Paul G. Gaffney II (Ret.) GEN Paul Kern (Ret.) ADM T. Joseph Lopez (Ret.) ADM Donald Don L. Pilling (Ret.) ADM Joseph W. Prueher (Ret.) VADM Richard H. Truly (Ret.) Gen Charles Chuck Wald (Ret.) Gen Anthony C. Tony Zinni (Ret.) Sherri Goodman, Executive Director 4

5 MAB Perspective on Scientific Debate We never have 100% certainty. If you wait until you have 100% certainty, something bad is going to happen on the battlefield. That s something we know. GEN Sullivan 5

6 General Concerns Slow & grinding nature of change. - Vice Admiral Truly Inability of world s most troubled regions and least capable governments to understand and cope Migration of people for: Water Food Health Safety (from natural disaster) Desperation, hopelessness exacerbated by a hostile environment Ripe for fanaticism 6

7 Threats to Natural & Human Systems Water Threats Food Case in Point: Darfur Health Weather 7

8 Threats to Natural & Human Systems Water Threats Food Case in Point: Somalia Health Weather 8

9 Findings Projected climate change poses a serious threat to America s national security 9

10 Findings Projected climate change poses a serious threat to America s national security Climate change acts as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the most volatile regions of the world 10

11 Findings Projected climate change poses a serious threat to America s national security Climate change acts as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the most volatile regions of the world Projected climate change will add to tensions even in stable regions of the world 11

12 Climate Change Presents Many Threats 2003 European heat wave killed more than 35,000 people These conditions are forecasted to be common by 2040 Image courtesy of NASA Earth 12 Observatory

13 Climate Change Affects the Extremes Changes in extremes will have a largely negative impact on human health Extreme weather events will become more common: Heat waves Wild fires Fewer cold extremes Drought Heavy rains, floods Intense storms, hurricanes, tornadoes 13

14 Findings Projected climate change poses a serious threat to America s national security Climate change acts as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the most volatile regions of the world Projected climate change will add to tensions even in stable regions of the world Climate change, national security, and energy dependence are a related set of global challenges 14

15 An Inter-related Set of Challenges Energy Dependence Climate Change National & Homeland Security 15

16 Regional Impacts Europe Europe will be focused on its own borders. There is potential for fracturing some very strong alliances based on migrations and the lack of control over borders. ADM Pilling 16

17 Regional Impacts Africa Climate change will facilitate: weakened governance economic collapse human migrations potential conflicts Stability operations and humanitarian missions could increase for U.S. 17

18 Regional Impacts Middle East Water security will be threatened two-thirds of the Arab world already depends on water sources external to their borders Loss of food and water security will increase pressure to emigrate across borders 18

19 Regional Impacts Asia Almost 40 percent of Asia s 4 billion people live within 45 miles of the coast Inundation of coastal areas, with loss of settled areas and agricultural land Threats to water, and spread of infectious disease will stress the region 19

20 Regional Impacts Western Hemisphere Coastal areas vulnerable to sea level rise coupled with more intense hurricanes Loss of glaciers will strain water supply in several areas, such as Peru and Venezuela Migration into the U.S. will likely increase 20

21 Regional Impacts: Arctic Arctic Ice Cap 21 Sep 2005 Source: NASA, Goddard Space Flight Center 21

22 Regional Impacts: Arctic Arctic Ice Cap 14 Sep 2007 Source: NASA, Goddard Space Flight Center 22

23 Regional Impacts: Arctic Indigenous populations at risk of displacement due to unstable infrastructure and spread of disease 23

24 Impacts on Military Systems Climate change - whether hotter, drier, or wetter - will add stress to our military and weapons systems 24

25 Battlefield Tonnage in Fuel & Water 25

26 Today s Top 10 Battlefield Fuel Users 1. Truck Tractor: Line Haul C/S GVWR 6X4 M Helicopter Utility: UH-60L 3. Truck Tractor: MTV W/E 4. Truck Tractor: Heavy Equipment Transporter (HET) 5. Tank Combat Full Tracked: 120MM Gun M1A2 6. Helicopter Cargo Transport: CH-47D 7. Decontaminating Apparatus: PWR DRVN LT WT 8. Truck Utility: Cargo/Troop Carrier 1 1/4 Ton 4X4 W/E (HMMWV) 9. Water Heater: Mounted Ration 10. Helicopter: Attack AH-64D 26

27 Bases Threatened by Rising Sea Levels Diego Garcia: Major logistics hub for U.S. and Britain Average Elevation: 4 Feet 27

28 Bases Threatened by Rising Sea Levels Hurricane Ivan 2004: Windspeeds greater than 100 mph Closed Naval Air Station Pensacola for nearly a year 28

29 Creates Engagement Opportunities Indian Ocean Tsunami, 2005: Support Operations & Capacity Building 29

30 Recommendations: U.S. Must Act 1. Integrate climate change into national security strategy 2. Play a stronger national and international role 3. Commit to global partnerships that build capacity and resiliency in less developed nations 4. U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) should use its buying power to advance clean energy solutions 5. DoD should assess now the impact over the next years of projected climate changes on military installations worldwide. 30

31 Solutions Leadership Engagement Sustainable Strategies 31

32 President-Elect Obama on Climate Change [Climate change] is a matter of urgency and of national security and it has to be dealt with in a serious way. That's what I intend my administration to do. 32

33 SecurityandClimate.cna.org 33

34 NATIONAL SECURITY Sherri Goodman General Counsel, CNA AND THE THREAT OF CLIMATE CHANGE A Research Agenda for Managing the Health Risks of Climate Change A Workshop hosted by the Institute of Medicine 15 January 2009

35 Backup Slides 35

36 Legislative Impact: Recommendation 1 National Intelligence Estimate on security implications of climate change: National Intelligence Assessment released June 08 Incorporation into Nat l Security & Defense Strategies: National Defense Authorization Act includes language from report 36

37 Legislative Impact: Recommendations 2 & bills, resolutions, and amendments about climate change were introduced in the 110 th Congress Senators Warner and Lieberman introduced the America s Climate Security Act (ACSA) of

38 Current MAB Effort Study Questions: How does energy impact the mission of the Department? How can DoD show leadership in making the nation at-large more energy-climate secure? Energy Dependence Climate Change National & Homeland Security 38

39 Briefings from Gov t, Private Sector, Non-Profits & Academics Martha Krebs, CA Energy Commission Dan Reicher, Google.org Kathleen Hogan, EPA Ken Krieg, CNA (former Under Secretary of Defense (AT&L)) Jeff Harris, Alliance to Save Energy Ray Anderson, Interface, Inc. Ken Tierney, Raytheon Fred Kneip, McKinsey Ben Schwegler, Disney Imagineering Vaclav Smil, Univ of Mannitoba John Deutch, MIT David Hawkins, NRDC 39

40 Military Advisory Board (MAB) Gen Charles Wald, USAF (Ret.), Chairman Gen Charles Boyd, USAF (Ret.) Lt Gen Lawrence P. Farrell Jr., USAF (Ret.) GEN Paul Kern, USA (Ret.) Gen Ronald Keys, USAF (Ret.) ADM T. Joseph Lopez, USN (Ret.) Gen Robert Magnus, USMC (Ret.) VADM Dennis McGinn, USN (Ret.) ADM John Nathman, USN (Ret.) RADM David Oliver, USN (Ret.) GEN Gordon Sullivan, USA (Ret.) VADM Richard H. Truly (Ret.) Sherri Goodman, Executive Director 40

41 The nation s icebreaking capability has diminished substantially and is at risk of being unable to support our national interests in the Arctic regions. 41