RPOS 479Z: Weapons of Mass Destruction and International Security

Transcription

1 RPOS 479Z: Weapons of Mass Destruction and International Security Instructor: Bryan R. Early, Associate Professor of Political Science Course #: (Fall 2017) Class Times: MWF 10:25-11:20AM Room: BB356 Contact Office Hours: Uptown, Humanities Building B16 Monday, 11:20 AM -12:20PM Course Description This course provides an overview of the threats posed to national and international security by chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear weapons. Students will learn why these weapons should not all be considered weapons of mass destruction through exploring the risks and consequences of their use by state and non-state actors. The course will do this by delving into the technical and policy challenges related to these weapons construction. It will further address how CBRN weapons shape countries national security strategies and regional security dynamics. Efforts at the international level to restrict the use and proliferation of these weapons will also be explored. Students will be given three writing assignments throughout the semester, including a major research paper on a related topic of their choice. Expectations Adopt the mentality that this course is a job and I have professional-level expectations of your performance. This is a reading intensive course that will make significant demands of your time. Students are expected to attend every class having done the assigned reading and prepared to discuss the assigned texts. Class discussions will be conducted in a collegial manner. Attendance is a necessary but not sufficient condition for success. It will be incorporated into students participation grades. Students will be expected to turn in assigned work on time. Late work will face significant deductions and can result in 0s. Course Objectives By the end of the semester, students should be able to: Describe the major technical challenges involved in the construction of chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) weapons Identify what makes certain types of CBRN weapons more effective for state actors and what makes certain types more effective for non-state actors Explain the major issues surrounding the proliferation of nuclear weapons and the role they play in international security Explain the nature of the threat posed by CBRN terrorism Discuss the regional security issues posed by nuclear weapons and the international efforts to prevent proliferation Apply their knowledge of CBRN issues to understanding contemporary events Have the foundational knowledge and skills to pursue a career in the WMD security field 1

2 Grading A points-based grading scheme is employed that is translated into A-E grades with pluses and minuses. Minuses and pluses are awarded at the 2.5% boundaries of the grade thresholds. For example, a 91% is considered an A- and an 89% is considered a B+. Participation 10% Participation will be evaluated based upon the quality and regularity of students contributions to course discussions and the class debates. The instructor reserves the right to give pop quizzes that will factor into the participation grade if deemed necessary. Attendance will be factored into this grade. Getting the Bomb Paper 15% Students will write a 4-6 page (double-spaced) paper on the major obstacles that states must overcome to acquire a military nuclear program capable of producing atomic bombs. Students should write this paper from a contemporary perspective. The paper should address the technical challenges, domestic political issues, and international political issues that may serve as obstacles for states efforts to acquire atomic bombs. The use of real-world examples is encouraged. Due: 10/11. Pick Your Poison Brief 15% Students will write a 3-4 page (double-spaced) brief paper on a chemical or biological weapons agent. This brief should be considered a primer for high-level policymakers on the particular agent, providing them with a summary description of the agent, the military and terrorism threat it poses, and the preparations the government should undertake to redress that threat. Due: 11/1. Research Paper 30% Students will write a page (double-spaced) research paper on a topic related to CBRN weapons, CBRN terrorism, international arms control or nonproliferation efforts, or regional security involving CBRN weapons. Students will submit their topics to the instructor for initial feedback and a rough draft of their papers to receive comments from a peer in class. Students will be expected to incorporate this feedback within their projects. The final draft will be evaluated by the instructor on its quality and the depth of the improvement made by the student from his or her initial draft. Topic Selected: Due 9/25 Rough Draft (5%): Due 11/17 Peer Review (5%): Due 11/27 Final Draft (20%): Due 12/11 2

3 Final Exam 30% This will be a cumulative exam that will cover the entire semester s course material. It will be very difficult to pass for students that do not keep up with the readings and attend lectures. Students should take detailed notes throughout the semester on their readings and during their lectures. Building a running study guide throughout the semester is also suggested. Exam Period: 12/14 (Thursday) from 3:30-5:30PM. Grading Policy Tests and papers will be graded blind by the instructor and/or teaching assistant. If a student wishes to challenge how his or her exam or paper was graded, the student must submit a written statement describing what part of their assignment was improperly evaluated and why they think that was the case. This must be done within five days of having the assignment returned. Both the instructor and his graduate assistant will re-grade the entire project, compare their assessments, and mutually decide on a final grade. This grade may be higher or lower than the original grade given and will be final. Any clear mistakes or errors made by the instructor will be promptly corrected. Policy on Academic Honesty Please familiarize yourself with the undergraduate bulletin s descriptions of cheating and plagiarism. If you are involved in plagiarism or cheating, the penalty will be failure in the course and you will be reported to judicial affairs. If you are not sure if something violates standards feel free to ask ahead of time. In general, it s always better to err on the side of citing too much than too little in your research papers. Information on the university s policies can be found at: Accommodations Reasonable accommodations will be provided for students with documented physical, sensory, systemic, cognitive, learning and psychiatric disabilities. If you believe you have a disability requiring accommodation in this class, please notify the Director of Disabled Student Services (Campus Center 137, ). The office will provide the course instructor with verification of your disability, and will recommend appropriate accommodations. For the University s policy, see: If you wish to discuss academic accommodations for this class please inform the instructor as soon as possible. This is a link for the university s policies on medically-excused absences: Resources This course will be very reading intensive. The readings come from a mixture of required texts, readings posted on Blackboard, and articles that students will be required to look up themselves using the university s electronic library resources. 3

4 Required Texts Scott Sagan and Kenneth Waltz The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate Renewed, Second Edition. New York: W.W. Norton & Co. Frank Barnaby How to Build a Nuclear Bomb: And Other Weapons of Mass Destruction. New York: Nation Books. Todd Sechser and Matthew Fuhrmann Nuclear Weapons and Coercive Diplomacy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Course Schedule Introduction Day 1-8/28: Introduction - Discuss Syllabus, Course Organization, Grading, and Class Policies Day 2-8/30: Critiquing the WMD Concept - Wolfgang K. H. Panofsky Dismantling the Concept of Weapons of Mass Destruction' Arms Control Today (April). Access at: - Seth Carus Defining Weapons of Mass Destruction. Washington, DC: Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destruction, National Defense University. Available at: - Bryan Early, Erika Martin, Brian Nussbaum, and Kathleen Deloughery Should conventional terrorist bombings be considered weapons of mass destruction terrorism? Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict 10(1): Day 3 9/1: A Global Overview of Proliferation - Daryl Kimball Chemical and Biological Weapons Status at a Glance. Arms Control Association. Available at: - Hans Kristensen and Robert Norris Status of World Nuclear Forces. Federation of American Scientists. Available at: - ILPI Weapons of Mass Destruction Project Maps Available at: (Look through the maps on this page). 9/4 Labor Day Nuclear Weapons Day 4-9/6: History of Nuclear Weapons Development 4

5 - Sarah Diehl and James Clay Moltz History of Nuclear Weapons and Nonproliferation. Nuclear Weapons and Nonproliferation. Santa Barbara: ABC-CLIO, Atomic Archives The Manhattan Project: Making the Atomic Bomb. Access at: - Joseph Cirincione Excerpt. Bomb Scare: The History and Future of Nuclear Weapons. New York. Columbia University Press. Day 5-9/8: How Nuclear Weapons Work and the Consequences of Their Use - U.S. Congress. Office of Technology Assessment The Effects of Nuclear War, pp. 3-59; Washington DC: Government Printing Office. Accessible at: - Frank Barnaby Nuclear Weapons. How to Build a Nuclear Bomb, John Mueller Overstating the Effects. Atomic Obsession: Nuclear Alarmism from Hiroshima to Al-Qaeda. Oxford: Oxford University Press, Alex Wellerstein Nukemap. Access at: Day 6-9/11: Why States Acquire Nuclear Weapons - Scott Sagan. 1996/1997. Why Do States Build Nuclear Weapons? Three Models in Search of a Bomb. International Security 21(3): Jacques Hymans Why Do States Acquire Nuclear Weapons? Comparing the Cases of India and France. In D.R. SarDesai and Raju Thomas s Nuclear India in the Twenty-First Century. New York: Palgrave Macmillan. Day 7-9/13: Explaining Nuclear Restraint - Ariel Levite. 2002/2003. Never Say Never Again: Nuclear Reversal Revisited. International Security 27(3): Jacques Hymans Of Gauchos and Gringos: Why Argentina Never Wanted the Bomb, and Why the United States Thought It Did. Security Studies 10(3): Day 8-9/15: Nuclear Opacity and Hedging / Case Studies: Israel and South Africa - Israel: Nuclear Overview Nuclear Threat Initiative. Access at: - Avner Cohen and William Burr Israel Crosses the Threshold. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (May/June): David Albright South Africa and the Affordable Bomb. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (July/August): Day 9-9/18: How to Make Nuclear Weapons - Frank Barnaby What Does It Take to Make a WMD? How to Build a Nuclear Bomb,

6 - Matthew Bunn and Anthony Wier Terrorist Nuclear Weapon Construction: How Difficult? The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 607(September): Day 10-9/20: Sensitive Foreign Nuclear Assistance - Matthew Kroenig Importing the Bomb Sensitive Nuclear Assistance and Nuclear Proliferation, Journal of Conflict Resolution 53 (April): Matthew Kroenig Exporting the Bomb: Why States Provide Sensitive Nuclear Assistance, American Political Science Review 103(1): /22 Rosh Hashanah Day 11-9/25: Peaceful Nuclear Assistance - Matthew Fuhrmann Select Chapters. Atomic Assistance: How Atoms for Peace Programs Cause Nuclear Insecurity. Ithaca: Cornell University Press. Day 12-9/27: Illicit Nuclear Black Markets - Alexander Montgomery Ringing in Proliferation. International Security 30(2): David Albright and Corey Hinderstein Unraveling the A. Q. Khan and Future Proliferation Networks. The Washington Quarterly 28(Spring): Sheena Chestnut Illicit Activity and Proliferation: North Korean Smuggling Networks. International Security 32(1): Nuclear Nonproliferation Efforts Day 13-9/29: The Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and IAEA - The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. Full Text Available at: - Jean du Preez Half Full or Half Empty? Realizing the Promise of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. Arms Control Today (December): Nuclear Threat Initiative The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. Access at: Day 14-10/2: Other Nuclear Arms Control Treaties - Arms Control Association U.S.-Russia Arms Control Agreements at a Glance. Access at: - Amy Wolf The New START Treaty: Central Limits and Key Provisions. Congressional Research Service. Available at: 6

7 - Trump Denounced Nuclear Arms Treaty in Phone Call with Putin Sources. The Guardian (9 February). Available at: - Tom Z. Collina with Daryl G. Kimball Now More Than Ever: The Case for the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty. Arms Control Association Briefing Book. Available at: Day 15-10/4: National Export Controls and Multilateral Export Control (10/12) - Michael D. Beck and Seema Gahlaut Introduction to Nonproliferation Export Controls. In Michael Beck, Richard Cupitt, Seema Gahlaut, and Scott Jones, eds., To Supply or Deny: Comparing Nonproliferation Export Controls in Five Key Countries. New York: Kluwer Law International. - James Goodby and Fred McGoldrick Reducing the Risks of Nuclear Power s Global Spread. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (May/June): Day 16: UNSCR 1540 and the Multilateral Export Control Regimes - Douglas Stinnett, Bryan Early, Cale Horne, and Johannes Karreth Complying by Denying: Explaining Why States Develop Nonproliferation Export Controls. International Studies Perspectives 12(3): Bryan Early, Mark Nance, and M. Patrick Cottrell Global governance at the energy-security nexus: Lessons from UNSCR Energy Research & Social Science 24: Nuclear Suppliers Group at a Glance Arms Control Association. Access at: Day 17-10/9 - Counter-Proliferation Efforts - Sarah E. Kreps and Matthew Fuhrmann Attacking the Atom: Does Bombing Nuclear Facilities Affect Proliferation? Journal of Strategic Studies 34 (2): Malfrid Braut-Hegghammer Revisiting Osirak: Preventive Attacks and Nuclear Proliferation Risks. International Security 36(1): Nuclear Deterrence, Coercion, and Effects on International Conflict Day 18-10/11: Nuclear Deterrence - Thomas Schelling The Art of Commitment. Arms and Influence. New Haven: Yale University Press, Keithe Payne Introduction. Deterrence in the Second Nuclear Age. Lexington: University of Kentucky Press, Jeffrey Lewis. Minimum Deterrence. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 64(3): Day 19-10/13: Nuclear Weapons and Coercion 7

8 - Todd Sechser and Matthew Fuhrmann Nuclear Weapons and Coercive Diplomacy, p Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Day 20-10/16: Nuclear Weapons and Coercion - Todd Sechser and Matthew Fuhrmann Nuclear Weapons and Coercive Diplomacy, p Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Day 21: 10/18: Nuclear Weapons and International Conflict, Pt. I - Scott Sagan and Kenneth Waltz Chapters 1-2. The Spread of Nuclear Weapons Day 22-10/20 - Nuclear Weapons and International Conflict, Pt. II - Scott Sagan and Kenneth Waltz Chapters 3-5. The Spread of Nuclear Weapons. Day 23-10/23: Nuclear Weapons and International Security, Conflict, Pt. III - Snyder, Glenn The Balance of Power and the Balance of Terror. In Balance of power, ed. Paul Seabury. San Francisco: Chandler. - Sobek, David, Dennis M. Foster, and Samuel B. Robison. "Conventional Wisdom? The Effect of Nuclear Proliferation on Armed Conflict, " International Studies Quarterly 56.1 (2012): Biological and Chemical Weapons Day 24 10/25: Biological Weapons - Frank Barnaby Biological Weapons. How to Build a Nuclear Bomb, Federation of American Scientists Biological Threat Agents Information. Access at: Day 25-10/27: Chemical Weapons - Frank Barnaby Chemical Weapons. How to Build a Nuclear Bomb, Federation of American Scientists Types of Chemical Agents. Access at: Day 26-10/30: Chemical and Biological Weapons and the Dual-Use Dilemma - Jonathan B. Tucker Dilemmas of a Dual-Use Technology: Toxins in Medicine and Warfare. Politics and Life Sciences 13(1): Kathleen Vogel Bioweapons Proliferation: Where Science Studies and Public Policy Collide. Social Studies of Science 36(5): Case Studies in Dual Use Biological Research Federation of American Scientists. Available at: Day 27-11/1: Why States Want Chemical and Biological Weapons 8

9 - Richard Price A Genealogy of the Chemical Weapons Taboo. International Organization 49(1): Gregory Koblentz Pathogens as Weapons: The International Security Implications of Biological Warfare. International Security 28(3): Michael Horowitz and Neil Narang Poor Man s Atomic Bomb? Exploring the Relationship between Weapons of Mass Destruction. Journal of Conflict Resolution 58(3): Day 28-11/3: International Arms Control Efforts - Australia Group at a Glance Arms Control Association. Access at: - WMD Commission Chapter 4: Biological and Toxin Weapons. Weapons of Terror: Freeing the World of Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Arms. Stockholm: WMD Commission. - WMD Commission Chapter 5: Chemical Weapons. Weapons of Terror: Freeing the World of Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Arms. Stockholm: WMD Commission. Ballistic Missiles Day 29-11/6: Ballistic Missiles: Strategic Significance and Proliferation Issues - WMD Commission Chapter 6: Delivery Means, Missile Defences, and Weapons in Space. Weapons of Terror: Freeing the World of Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Arms. Stockholm: WMD Commission. - Gormley, Dennis Select Chapter. Missile Contagion: Cruise Missile Proliferation and the Threat to International Security. Annapolis: Naval Institute Press. Day 30-11/8: Ballistic Missile Proliferation - Aaron Karp Select Chapter. Ballistic Missile Proliferation: The Politics and Technics. Oxford: Oxford University Press. - Dinshaw Mistry Building a Comprehensive Regime to Contain Ballistic Missile Proliferation. International Security 27(4): Missile Technology Control Regime Official Website. Access at: CBRN Terrorism Day 31-11/10: Nuclear and Radiological Terrorism: Part I - Charles Ferguson and William Potter Chapters 1-2. Four Faces of Nuclear Terrorism. Monterey: Monterey Institute Center for Nonproliferation Studies. - Michael Levi and Henry Kelly Weapons of Mass Disruption. Scientific American (November). Access at: 9

10 Day 32-11/13: Nuclear and Radiological Terrorism: Part II - Matt Bunn and Susan Martin Is Nuclear Terrorism a Real Threat? In Stuart Gottlieb s Debating Terrorism and Counterterrorism. Washington, DC: CQ Press, Keir Lieber and Daryl Press Why States Won t Give Nuclear Weapons to Terrorists. International Security 38(1): Day 33-11/15: Chemical Terrorism - Jonathon Tucker Chemical Terrorism: Assessing Threats and Responses. In Russell Howard and James Forest s Weapons of Mass Destruction and Terrorism. New York: McGraw Hill, Mark Juergensmeyer Armageddon in Tokyo Subway. Terror in the Mind of God: the Global Rise of religious Violence. Berkley: University of California Press, Day 34-11/17: Bioterrorism - Gary Ackerman and Kevin Moran Bioterrorism and Threat Assessment. WMD Commission. Stockholm, Sweden: Weapons of Mass Destruction Commission. - Malcom Dando The Bioterrorist Cookbook. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientist (November/December). 11/20-11/24 Thanksgiving Break (Draft Peer Review) Day 35-11/27: Preventing and Recovering from of CBRN Terrorism - Matthew Bunn, Martin Malin, Nickolas Roth, and William Tobey Preventing Nuclear Terrorism: Continuous Improvement or Dangerous Decline Cambridge: Harvard University s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. Access at: Web%202.pdf. - Gene Aloise Preliminary Observations on Preparedness to Recover from Possible Attacks Using Radiological or Nuclear Threats. U.S. Government Accountability Office (September 29). Access at: Cases Analyses of WMD Security and Proliferation Issues (Readings in this Section Subject to Change to Account for Current Events) Day 36-11/29: The United States - Nuclear Threat Initiative United States Country Profile. Access at: 10

11 - Amy Woolf Nuclear Weapons in U.S. National Security Policy: Past, Present, and Prospects. Congressional Research Service (December 30). Access at: - Amy Woolf U.S. Strategic Nuclear Forces: Background, Developments, and Issues. Congressional Research Service (Aug. 8). Access at: - Jon Wolfsthal, Jeffrey Lewis, and Marc Quint The Trillion Dollar Triad. James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. Available at: Day 37-12/1: Russia - Nuclear Threat Initiative Russia Country Profile. Access at: - Jeffrey M. Bale The Chechen Resistance and Radiological Terrorism. Nuclear Threat Initiative. Access at: - Malcom Davis Russia's New RS-28 Sarmat ICBM: A U.S. Missile Defense Killer? The National Interest (15 Feb.). Available at: - Dave Majumdar Why Russia's New ICBM Might be the Real Nuclear Missile America Should Fear. The National Interest (2 Aug.). Available at: Day 38-12/4: North Korea - Nuclear Threat Initiative North Korea Country Profile. Access at: - Joshua Pollack Ballistic Trajectory: The Evolution of North Korea s Ballistic Missile Market. Nonproliferation Review 18(2): Emma Chanlett-Avery, Ian Rinehart, and Mary Beth Nikitin North Korea: U.S. Relations, Nuclear Diplomacy, and Internal Situation. Congressional Research Service (15 Jan.). Access at: - William Broad and David Sanger North Korea s Missile Success Is Linked to Ukrainian Plant, Investigators Say. New York Times (14 Aug.). Available at: - William Broad, Mike Grondahl, Josh Keller, Alicia Parlapiano, Anjali Singhvi and Karen Yourish This Missile Could Reach California. But Can North Korea Use It With a Nuclear Weapon? New York Times (22 Aug.). Available at: 11

12 Day 39-12/6: Iran - Nuclear Threat Initiative Iran Country Profile. Access at: - Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action at a Glance Arms Control Association. Available at: - Kenneth Katzman and Paul Kerr Iran Nuclear Agreement. CRS Report #R Washington DC: Congressional Research Service. Available at: - Yukiya Amano (IAEA Director General) Reflections on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. IAEA. Available at: Day 40-12/8: China - Nuclear Threat Initiative China Country Profile. Access at: - Shirley Kan China and Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction and Missiles: Policy Issues. Congressional Research Service (Jan. 5). Access at: - Simon Denyer China demands U.S. immediately withdraw North Korea sanctions, warns they will damage ties. New York Times (23 Aug.). Day 41-12/11: Conclusion 12