Force Modernization Trends - India and Pakistan

Transcription

1 Force Modernization Trends - India and Pakistan Rodney W. Jones APCSS Conference on Conventional Arms Rivalry in Asia Pacific Region October 23-25, 25, 2001 Policy Architects International 1

2 Conditions of Regional Security nconventional-nuclear nuclear interacts in 1990s nslow-burn arms race exists in South Asia nchina is factor in South Asian rivalry ninternal threats are salient nterrorism is endemic, not new nrma? burro-gait, no stallion-gallup nasymmetric vs. US? No. Each other? Yes. Policy Architects International 2

3 Conventional arms modernization nhardware - combat equipment, EW, C 3 nsoftware - strategy, planning, doctrine, IT norganization - command and personnel quality, rational task allocation, morale, adaptability nindigenous R&D nbudget and procurement rationality Policy Architects International 3

4 Geopolitical watersheds n Independence challenges n Cold War problems and opportunities n Indo-Pakistani wars of 1965 and 1971 n Energy Security: 1973 OPEC challenge n Crescent of Crisis: Iran and Afghanistan n Cold War transition and Soviet demise n 1991 Gulf War n Nuclear transition Policy Architects International 4

5 Defense Budgets and Burdens ncomparing India and Pakistan, ndefense expenditures - in US dollars ndefense expenditures - as % of GDP ncomparing India and China, nestimates of defense expenditure Policy Architects International 5

6 Chart 1. Defense Expenditures, India and Pakistan, Soviets intervene in Afghanistan Soviet exit Nuclear Tests India Def Exp excluding paramilitary, atomic energy and space US Dollars in Billions War Kashmir insurgency India Def Exp including paramilitary, atomic energy, and space Pakistan Def Budget Pakistan Def Expend Year

7 Chart 1 I-P Defense Expenditures, : Noteworthy Watersheds and Trends (1) n Slope of Indian increase high, Pakistani gradual n I-P P ratio changes from 2:1 (1970) to 4+:1 (1999) n Pak exp drops after 71 war and 91 Pressler cutoff n Pak budgets and actual exp diverge (post-96) n Pak under severe duress after Soviet exit from Afghanistan, when US pulls plug on assistance, and Cold War is over n Pak above-budget budget expenditures: nuclear? Taliban? Policy Architects International 7

8 Chart 1 I-P Defense Expenditures, Watersheds and Trends continued (2) n Indian def exp doubles in 1970s, again in 1980s n Why? Because Soviets intervened in Afghanistan? n Or because Soviets bought India out? n Indian exp rose at unprecedented pace in 1980s n Then dropped after Soviet exit n Despite insurgency in Kashmir n Then rose sharply again in 1993 (econ growth?) n Jumped phenomenally in 1999 (BJP? nuclear?) Policy Architects International 8

9 Chart 2. Defense Expenditures as Per Cent of GDP - India and Pakistan, War Soviets intervene in Afghanistan Soviet exit 8 Per Cent of GDP India's economic growth accelerates Pakistan India Kashmir insurgency Year

10 Chart 2 India-Pakistan Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP n Pak % of GDP closer to India s in 1970 n Pak profile jagged after loss of East Pakistan GDP n Pak burden rises after Soviets occupy Afghanistan n Continues up after Soviet exit, till n Then drops as economy labors in 1990s n India s profile less volatile, but climbs Policy Architects International 10

11 Chart 3. Comparison of Chinese and Indian Defense Expenditure, US Dollars in Billions Soviets exit Afghanistan Kashmir insurgency Cold War ends Nuclear tests China Def Exp India Def Exp Year

12 Chart 3 Chinese and Indian Defense Expenditure n Chinese slope is down until Cold War ends n China-India ratio drops from 5:1 to 2.3:1 n Then Chinese expenditures climb (econ growth?) n Indian expenditures drop briefly after 1990 n Then Indian expenditures climb, fast n But not quite as fast as China s n Are they linked? Big Russian sales to both! Policy Architects International 12

13 Combat Aircraft Chart 4. Composition of India's and Pakistan's Air Forces strategic bomber capability 233 nuclear-capable tactical aircraft Attack Helicopters Strategic Bombers Naval Cbt Aircraft Nuclear-Capable High-Performance 200 Vintage Fighters Year India Pakistan

14 Chart 4. India and Pakistan - Air Forces, n Vintage combat aircraft dominate until 1980 n Modernization jumps sharply from n High-performance and nuclear-capable capable dominate n India s superiority increases vs. Pakistan n Especially in high-performance, ground-attack n India adds strategic (long-range) aircraft n IAF doctrine to preempt airfields n Nuclear instability? Policy Architects International 14

15 Table 1. Nuclear-Capable Strike and Reconnaissance Aircraft India and Pakistan India Pakistan Aircraft Type Operating Radius Inventory Supplier (km, unrefueled) Modern Su-30 MK 1, Russia Mirage 2000H/TH 1, France/UK Jaguar S(I) France/UK MiG-29 (Fulcrum) Russia Vintage MiG-21 MF/PFMA Russia MiG-23 BN/UM Russia MiG-27 (Flogger) Russia Strategic (Long-Range) Tu-142 (Bear F) ASW 6,200 8 Russia Ilyushin-38 (marit recon) 3,600 5 Russia Tu-22M (Backfire) 4,430 4 Russia Total 513 Modern F-16 A/B US Vintage Mirage IIIEP France Mirage France Total 93

16 Vehicles and Systems 9000 Chart 5. Composition of India's and Pakistan's Ground Forces - Armor and Artillery, Short-range Ballistic Missiles (SRBMs) Multiple Rocket Launchers (MRLs) Self-propelled Artillery (SPs) Armored Infantry Fighting Vehicles (AIFVs) Armored Personnel Carriers (APCs) Modern 'Main Battle Tanks' (MBTs) Vintage Tanks 1000 Tanks in storage India Year Pakista

17 Chart 5 India and Pakistan, Armor and Artillery to 2000 n Vintage vs. modern (e.g., self-propelled artillery) n India modernizes rapidly , 90, MBTs, AIFVs n Pakistani reequipment much slower, less potent n Quantitative balance roughly constant n Qualitative balance worse for Pakistan after 1990 n Indian ground force coordination makes strides n Surface-to to-surface missiles being introduced n India with strategic depth, Pakistan narrow Policy Architects International 17

18 Naval Combat Vessels 120 Chart 6. India's and Pakistan's Naval Forces, Mine Warfare Vessels Coastal Combatants Coastal fleet Nuclear Submarines Modern Submarines Vintage Submarines Blue Water fleet Aircraft Carriers Modern Surface Ships: DDGs, FFs Vintage Surface Ships Year Indi a Pakistan

19 Chart 6 India and Pakistan Naval Forces n Vintage vs. modern n Indian blue-water fleet increasing slowly n Pakistani navy actually shrinking n India acquires modern diesel submarines n India upgrades surface missile ships after 1990 n India seeks nuclear-powered submarines, future n India s aircraft carriers and SSN/SSBN plans indicate power project ambitions, but slow results Policy Architects International 19

20 Aircraft 250 Chart 6.2 India's and Pakistan's Naval Air and Airborne Warning AEW-AWAC Aircraft ASW Patrol Aircraft Naval Armed Helicopters India Year Pakistan Naval Combat Aircraft

21 Chart 6.2 India and Pakistan Naval Air and AEW n Shows efforts to build up naval capabilities n Indian emphasis on ASW and AEW aircraft n India also has trouble sustaining naval combat air n But Pakistan has very thin naval air capabilities n Pakistan vulnerable to blockade Policy Architects International 21

22 7. Space and Air Surveillance nindia n remote sensing satellites n 8 Tu-142M Bear n 5 Il-38 maritime reconn n 19 Dornier-228 reconn n 4 HS-748 AEW n 8 MiG-25R/U photograph n 5 Tu-22M3 to lease npakistan n satellite in development n no counterpart n no counterpart n 3-44 Atlantique n no counterpart n no counterpart n no counterpart Policy Architects International 22

23 8. India and Pakistan Air Force Procurement nindiaindia n Su-30MK FGA (new) n Jaguar FGA (upgrading) n Mirage 2000 (more, upgr) n MiG-21 FGA (upgr( upgr) n LCA (develop, since 83) n Astra AAM n HS-748, ELINT n Nishant UAVs npakistanpakistan n FC-1, FGA (China) n F-7MG, FGA (China) n Mirage-3 3 (upgrade) Policy Architects International 23

24 8 (cont) India and Pakistan - Air Force Procurement nindia n Searcher-2 2 UAV (Israel) n Il-78, tanker aircraft n HJT-36 trainers (domest( domest) n Iskra TS-11 trainer (Pol( Pol) npakistan Policy Architects International 24

25 9. India and Pakistan - Navy Procurement nindia n Adm Gorshkov A/Carrier n SSN (ATV) for 2007 n Kilo SSK subs (Russia) n Type 209 subs (Germany) n Delhi DDs (domestic) n Brahmaputra FFGs (dom) n Krivak FF (Russia) n Kora FSG corvette (Russ) npakistan n no counterpart n no counterpart n Khalid SSK subs (France) Policy Architects International 25

26 9. India and Pakistan Naval Procurement cont nindia n Super Dvora T-81 fast patrol craft (Israel) n Harrier TMk4 (UK) n P-3C Orion maritime patrol ASW (US) n Dornier-228 (Germany) n K-31 EW heli (Russia) n Magyar LST npakistan n Shujat fast patrol cr (PRC) Policy Architects International 26

27 10. India Pakistan Army Procurement nindia n T-90 MBT (Russia) n Arjun MBT (domestic) n Casspir APC (S. Africa) n Mi-17iB heli (Russia) n Nag ATGW (domest( domest) n M-46 artillery upgr (Israel n 2S6 self-prop AA (Russia) n T-72VT, armored recover npakistan n T-80UD MBT (Ukraine) n M-113 APC (US) n Al-Khalid MBT (domest( domest) Policy Architects International 27

28 11. India s Modernization Summary n Slow but steady n Import dependent for first-line equipment, despite domestic R&D programs n Breadth and depth in capabilities, e.g. surveillance n Blue water naval ambitions, eyes bigger than stomach n Air and ground forces potent vs. Pakistan n Russia main supplier, some European, Israeli Policy Architects International 28

29 12. Pakistan s Modernization Summary n Technical modernization is slow n Dependent on China for most new equipment n Some aircraft upgrades from Europe n Falling far behind India in surveillance and connectivity n Vulnerability to preemptive conventional air attack is destabilizing n Incentive to rely on unconventional warfare Policy Architects International 29

30 13. Policy Implications n Conventional military imbalance - unstable n Asymmetry is worsening for Pakistan n Pakistan s nuclear threshold is dropping n Pakistan highly dependent on China n Pakistan, unconventional incentives growing n US war against terrorism is opportunity to provide relief on Afghanistan and economy n Is conventional rebalancing possible? Policy Architects International 30