Asia Pacific Regional Security Challenges and Opportunities

Transcription

1 Asia Pacific Regional Security Challenges and Opportunities Richard A. Bitzinger RSIS

2 Overview What is driving security concerns in the Asia- Pacific (particularly the military buildup)? What is enabling this buildup? How is military modernization affecting regional security? Is there an arms race? Opportunities for regional security?

3 Asia Pacific: The Critical Nexus Home to 50% of the world s population 5 of the top 10 largest countries 2 nd and 3 rd largest economies 4 of the top 10 largest militaries Huge ICT sector (but unequally distributed) 1 billion Asians use internet Critical SLOCs: 50%+ of all global merchant tonnage passes through Asia Pacific Traffic through Asia Pacific waters is 3x Suez, 5x

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7 Growing Chinese Assertiveness in Regional Waters China claims sovereign control over Diaoyu islands, most of SCS A core interest on par with Taiwan, Tibet Increased sovereignty enforcement efforts in East and Southeast China seas USNS Impeccable incident, 2009 Scarborough Shoal incident (Philippines), 2012 Cut cables of Vietnamese seismic survey ship, 2012 Establishment of Sansha city, 2012 PLA amphibious fleet patrol to James Shoal (Malaysia), 2013 Creation of ECS ADIZ, 2013

8 Chinese Military Buildup in Region Infrastructure New naval base on Hainan Island Airstrip at Woody Island, Paracels Constructing naval facilities in Myanmar, negotiating port access with Pakistan String of Pearls Chinese naval access to facilities stretching from Northeast Pacific Ocean to Indian Ocean New Second Artillery missile brigade (w/asbm?) in Guangdong Summer 2010: unprecedented three-fleet military maneuvers in SCS

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10 U.S. Rebalancing Back to Asia Pivot from NE Asia to SE Asia Relocation of troops out of South Korea and Japan Corresponding buildup in Guam Littoral Combat Ships to be stationed in Singapore US Marines based in northern Australia Expanded US-Phils, US-Indonesian military ties Defense transformation Greater emphasis on mobility, agility, flexibility of U.S. forces in Asia-Pacific AirSea Battle concept

11 Other Regional Security Concerns Rise of India and South Korea as military powers Continuing regional terrorist activities: JI, Abu Sayyaff Group, Laskar Jihad Piracy and international crime: robbery at sea, hijacking, taking of hostages, drug smuggling, human trafficking WMD proliferation (trans-shipment through regional waters)

12 Asian Military Modernization New emphasis on forces for sovereignty enforcement, forward defense, protecting economic interests New requirements for force projection, firepower, stealth Navies: move from coastal defense to (at least) green water capabilities Air Forces: 4 th -gen-plus fighters, long-range AAMs, precision-guided AGMs Increased need for C4ISR for jointness, networking

13 Enabler #1: Rising Regional Defense Spending China: defense spending has more than quintupled since 1997 (2013: $119b) Second-highest military spender in the world Regional defense spending growth, 2000s (SIPRI): Australia: 40% India: 37% South Korea: 35% Indonesia: 200% Malaysia: 30% Singapore: 33% Thailand: 58% Only Japan and Taiwan have had relatively static defense spending over the past decade Taiwan: signed $6.8b arms deal with US in 2008

14 Enabler #2: The Global Buyer s Market in Arms Most leading arms producers (Western Europe, Russia, Israel) are highly dependent on exports Excess capacity, shrinking markets at home Producers prepared to deal when it comes price, flexible payment options, offsets, tech transfers Asia: Second largest arms export market India, China, Korea: typically among top ten arms importers SEA: Small but growing, open market

15 Is an Arms Race Underway in Asia? Arms race: irrational arming, no absolute goal Futile, if not counterproductive Case in point: submarine arms race in SEA? Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam, Indonesia (Thailand? Philippines?) Could tit-for-tat acquisitions destabilize regional security, especially if coupled with other acquisitions? Increased green-water capabilities to assert sovereignty and control in territorial waters, EEZs

16 Regional Military Modernization: A Potentially Destabilizing Buildup? An arms race? Probably not Modernization-plus : lead to the introduction of new capabilities (e.g., for force projection, stealth, firepower, ISR) into regional military security calculus Arms dynamic can still lead to increased arms competitions, which can contribute to a regional security dilemma Unintended consequences: reinforce mutual suspicions and insecurities: spiral effect undermines the very security that arming is seeking to enhance Make conflict, should it occur, more high-tech, more lethal, and potentially more devastating

17 Opportunities for Regional Security and Stability Improved capabilities for deterrence New capacities for contributing to HADR missions, PKOs, and other contingencies Improved interoperability Communications and datalinks Intelligence-sharing Especially when married with variety of CBMs APEC, ADMM+, EAS, ASEAN+3, FPDA