Data Digest: Tennessee. August 2013

Transcription

1 Data Digest: Tennessee August 2013

2 Tennessee s economic performance largely mirrors that of the United States. About the Coincident Economic Indicator Jan 2001 = Coincident Economic Indicator United States Tennessee Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia 2

3 For about three years, total employment in Tennessee had been on an upward trend. Payroll growth has leveled off in recent months. Following slight increases in April and May, payrolls ticked down in June. Thousands, seasonally adjusted 3,000 Tennessee Payroll Employment 2,900 2,800 2,700 2,600 2,500 Tennessee lost 7.8% of its payroll employment from peak to trough. 2,400 2,300 2,200 2,100 2, Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics 3

4 Most industries lost some jobs during the downturn; manufacturing and construction, mining, and natural resources saw significant declines. With the exception of federal and state government, all major industries have added jobs during the recovery. Local government Federal & state government Leisure & hospitality Education & healthcare Transport/Warehousing/Utilities Construction, mining, natural resources Employment Loss and Gain by Industry: Tennessee Other services Business services Financial services Information Retail trade Wholesale trade Manufacturing Total Note: A reading of 0.0 in the trough to present measure indicates that employment continues to decline in these industries. Likewise, a reading of 0.0 in the peak to trough measure indicates that employment continues to increase in these industries; in this instance trough to present is the percent change from January 2007 to present Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Percent change peak to trough Percent change trough to present

5 3-month average annualized percent change Employment growth momentum lost some steam during May and June. Only three major industries were firmly in the expanding category. About Employment Momentum 8 6 Improving Employment Momentum by Industry: Tennessee Expanding Leisure and hospitality Health care and education Information Financial services Local government Business services Retail trade -2 Construction Manufacturing -4 Transportation/Warehouse/Utilities Wholesale trade -6 Other services -8 Federal and state government Contracting Slipping Year-over-year percent change Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 5

6 Employment losses in Tennessee metro areas were significant during the downturn. The major cities have regained some jobs. Nashville, Knoxville, Cleveland, and Clarksville have regained all the jobs lost. Nashville Morristown Memphis Knoxville Kingsport-Bristol Johnson City Jackson Cleveland Clarksville Chattanooga Tennessee Employment Loss and Gain by Metro Area: Tennessee Percent change peak to trough Percent change trough to present Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 6

7 3-month average annualized percent change Employment growth momentum in most major metropolitan areas expanded in June. About Employment Momentum 8 Improving Employment Momentum by Metro Area: Tennessee Expanding 6 Cleveland 4 Clarksville Nashville 2 Chattanooga Knoxville 0 Memphis Morristown -2 Johnson City -4 Jackson -6 Kingsport-Bristol Contracting Slipping Year-over-year percent change Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 7

8 3-month average percent change, annualized Tennessee employment momentum continued to expand in June, but at a decreasing rate. About Employment Momentum Track 6 Improving Employment Momentum Track: Tennessee January 2007 Expanding Contracting Slipping Year-over-year percent change Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 8

9 The unemployment rate for Tennessee has been inching up this year. The state s unemployment rate is above the national rate for the fifth consecutive month in June. Percent of labor force 12 Unemployment Rates United States Tennessee Unemployment Rates Current Year Ago Jan 2007 United States Tennessee Chattanooga Clarksville Cleveland Jackson Johnson City Kingsport-Bristol Knoxville Memphis Morristown Nashville Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics 9

10 Initial unemployment insurance claims are now close to prerecession levels. 4-week moving average 20,000 Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims: Tennessee July 13, ,500 15,000 12,500 10,000 Initial claims averaged just over 6,200 per week during ,500 5, Source: U.S. Department of Labor Employment and Training Administration, Haver Analytics 10

11 Growth of sales tax revenue in Tennessee has been virtually flat over the past few months. Consumer confidence has been trending upward since last November. 4-week moving average 400 Tennessee Sales Tax Revenue and Consumer Confidence Year-to-year change, 3-month moving average Tennessee Consumer Confidence (left scale) Tennessee Sales Tax Revenue (right scale) Note: Consumer Confidence data are through April 2013 Source: Middle Tennessee State University, Tennessee Department of Revenue

12 Regional manufacturing activity expanded for the sixth consecutive month, according to the Southeast Purchasing Managers Index produced by Kennesaw State University. In Tennessee, manufacturing activity continues to be strong. 80 Southeast Purchasing Managers Index The Tennessee component of the SE PMI was 54.2 in Note: 50+ = Expansion Source: Kennesaw State University, Coles College of Business Econometric Center 12

13 New home construction permits for the United States and Tennessee remain at historically low levels. After robust increases in April and May, permits dipped sharply in June. 225,000 New Residential Home Construction Permits 5, ,000 4, ,000 4, , , ,000 75,000 50,000 United States (left scale) Tennessee (right scale) 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 25, Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Haver Analytics 0 13

14 Over the past year, home prices in Tennessee rose at a slower pace than nationally. Q = Federal Housing Finance Agency Home Price Index through Q United States Tennessee FHFA House Price Index: Q yr % change 5-yr % change 10-yr % change United States Tennessee Cleveland Jackson Johnson City Knoxville Morristown Nashville Chattanooga Clarksville Kingsport-Bristol Memphis Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, Haver Analytics Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 14

15 The office vacancy rate is lower in Nashville than in the United States as a whole and has been declining at a faster pace. Percent 20 Office Vacancy Rate Q United States Nashville Source: CB Richard Ellis, Haver Analytics 15

16 Industrial availability rates remain elevated throughout the United States. Nashville s rate has remained essentially unchanged above the national level for two years. Percent 20 Industrial Availability Rate Q United States Nashville Source: CB Richard Ellis, Haver Analytics 16

17 For additional sources of information, see our Local Economic Analysis Research Network membership at 17