New York Economic Outlook

Transcription

1 New York Economic Outlook Presented by: Marisa Di Natale, Senior Economist May 23, 2007

2 Chart 1: Northeast States Payroll Employment One-year vs. 3-month performance (3-mo. MA) Improving 2.0 Northeast States September March Expanding U.S. 1.5 Rhode Island New Hampshire Annualized 3-mo. % change 1.0 Pennsylvania Connecticut 0.5 New York Massachusetts New Jersey Maine Vermont Contracting -1.5 % change year ago Slipping NOTE: Size reflects relative total employment

3 Chart 2: Northeast Metro Areas Payroll Employment One-year vs. 3-month performance (3-mo. MA) Improving 4.0 Northeast MSAs September March Expanding Annualized 3-mo. % change New York 1.5 U.S. Philadelphia Pittsburgh Rochester 1.0 Albany 0.5 Newark Boston Nassau Baltimore Washington Syracuse -1.0 Edison Buffalo Contracting -1.5 % change year ago Slipping NOTE: Size reflects relative total employment

4 New York's Expansion Is Slow and Steady Composite Index of Coincident Indicators, Jan = U.S New York Source: Moody's Economy.com

5 Strong Global Demand... Total trade volume, % change year ago of 3 mo. MA New York City Customs District Buffalo Customs District

6 ...Will Boost New York's Manufacturers 3 mo. MA Empire State Manufacturing Survey (L) ISM Manufacturing Survey (R)

7 Outside of the Factories, Upstate Is Hiring Upstate employment, % change year ago of 3 mo. MA 2 1 Non-manufacturing Manufacturing

8 More Homogeneous Growth Upstate Private sector employment, % change year ago Syracuse Rochester Albany Buffalo

9 Population Growth Grinds to a Halt population growth, BOC midyear estimates U.S. = 1.0% New York = 0% -.64 to to to.68 9

10 Trends Have Been Deteriorating Nearly Everywhere Population, average annual % change U.S. Albany New York City Syracuse Rochester Nassau-Suffolk Buffalo

11 New York Population Forecast Population, mil (L) % change year ago (R)

12 Less Direct Risk from Housing's Downturn... Housing-related employment, % change since Jan Rochester Elmira Binghamton Buffalo Utica Albany Syracuse Nassau-Suffolk New York City Ithaca Poughkeepsie U.S. Kingston Glens Falls

13 ...But Big Price Declines Pose Risks of Their Own Median existing single-family price, % change from peak Elmira Kingston New York City Ithaca Binghamton Buffalo Poughkeepsie Utica Rochester Syracuse U.S. Nassau-Suffolk Glens Falls Albany

14 More Risky Borrowers in New York Than Anywhere Subprime mortgage originations as % of total, 2005 Nassau- Glens Falls Kingston New York City Poughkeepsie Albany U.S. Utica Syracuse Elmira Binghamton Rochester Buffalo Ithaca Source: HMDA

15 Having Trouble Keeping Up with the Payments First mortgage delinquency rate, % of $ volume, 2007Q1 Syracuse Utica Poughkeepsie Binghamton Buffalo Rochester Nassau-Suffolk U.S. Albany Source: CreditForecast.com New York City

16 No Signs of Slowing Yet in New York City Office-using employment, % change year ago of 3 mo. MA (L) Unemployment rate (R)

17 Little Space Left in Manhattan as a Result Office vacancy rate, % Source: CBRE Downtown Manhattan Midtown Manhattan

18 Wall Street Enters 2007 on Strong Footing Source: SIA 1,600 1, S&P 500 index (R) Securities industry net income, $ bil (L) ,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1,

19 ...But Risks to the Outlook Abound Sources: Moody's Economy.com, Smith Travel Research Tourism/entertainment services employment % change year ago (R) Hotel occupancy rate (L)

20 Is a Large Oversupply Looming in New York City? Sources: CSW, BOC, Moody's Economy.com Multifamily permits, ths CSW condo price index, % change year ago

21 Goods-Producing Sector Will Drag Growth Employment, avg. year-to-year % change, 2006Q4 to 2008Q4 Educ./healthcare Information Leisure/hospitality Other services Prof./bus. services Finance Retail trade Nat. resources/mining Government Wholesale trade Transport./utilities Construction Manufacturing Source: Moody's Economy.com

22 Much of Upstate Will Do Better in the Near Term Employment, average annualized % change Ithaca Kingston U.S. Poughkeepsie Glens Falls Albany New York New York City Nassau-Suffolk Syracuse Utica Binghamton Elmira Buffalo Rochester Source: Moody's Economy.com forecast Two years ending in: 2008q4 2006q