A MONTHLY UPDATE OF THE FIFTH DISTRICT ECONOMY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF RICHMOND

Transcription

1 December 217 December Summary Reports on s economy were mostly positive in recent months as payroll employment rose and housing market indicators showed signs of improvement while household conditions were little changed. Labor Markets: Total employment in increased.3 percent in October as firms added 11, net new jobs. The largest contributors to the overall gain in the month were professional and business services and trade, transportation, and utilities firms, which added, jobs and,9 jobs, respectively. The leisure and hospitality industry also posted a sizable gain of 3, jobs in October. Smaller gains were reported in education and health services and logging and mining. On the downside, the largest decline, in both absolute and percentage terms, came from other services, which cut 1, jobs (.9 percent). On a yearover-year basis, payroll employment in rose 1.7 percent as every industry except construction and information expanded. Professional and business services continued to report the largest employment gain (31,7 jobs) and fastest growth (.2 percent). In terms of the number of jobs added over the year, education and health services and trade, transportation, and utilities followed with 1,1 jobs and 1,3 jobs, respectively. Household Conditions: s unemployment rate was unchanged at.1 percent in October. Unemployment rates were unchanged or slightly higher in October in every MSA except Fayetteville, where the rate declined.1 percentage point to.1 percent. In the third quarter of 217, the share of mortgages with payments 9 or more days past due was unchanged at 1.3 percent. The delinquency rate for fixed rate conventional loans was also unchanged in the third quarter at 1. percent while the delinquency rate for adjustable rate loans ticked up to 2. percent. In the second quarter of 217, real personal income in rose.7 percent and was 2.2 percent higher than in the second quarter of 21. Housing Markets: issued,99 new residential permits in October, up 1. percent from the prior month and up 23.3 percent from a year earlier. Permitting activity picked up in the majority of MSAs in October and on a year-over-year basis. housing starts totaled, in October, up 17.9 percent from September and up. percent on a year-over-year basis. According to CoreLogic Information Solutions, home values appreciated.2 percent in September and appreciated.1 percent since September 21. House prices rose in every MSA except Asheville and Greensboro in the month. On a year-over-year basis, prices increased in every MSA. A Closer Look at Gross Domestic Product by MSA Raleigh Burlington Charlotte Asheville Wilmington Greenville Hickory Fayetteville New Bern Jacksonville Greensboro Goldsboro Winston Durham-Chapel Hill Rocky Mount Real GDP Per Capita in 21 by MSA (29$) Value Rank Value Rank $,11 -- Greenville $39,71 7 Asheville $3,17 1 Hickory $32,2 13 Burlington $29,311 1 Jacksonville $3,79 9 Charlotte $,911 2 New Bern $3, 12 Durham $, 1 Raleigh $,29 3 Fayettville $,13 Rocky Mount $3,72 1 Goldsboro $31,2 1 Wilmington $3,1 Greensboro $,927 Winston-Salem $37,39 Real GDP Growth in 21 (YoY%)

2 December 217 Labor Market Conditions Payroll Employment (SA) Period Level (s) MoM % Change YoY % Change Year-over-Year Percent Change in October Total October 17, Fifth District - Total October 1, Total October, Logging and Mining October Construction October Manufacturing October Trade, Transportation, and Utilities October Information October Financial Activities October Professional and Business Services October..7.1 Education and Health Services October Leisure and Hospitality October Payroll Employment Performance Other Services October Total Employment Performance Government October Year-over-Year Percent Change in October 217 Metro Payroll Employment (NSA) Period Level (s) YoY % Change Asheville MSA - Total October Charlotte MSA - Total October 1, Durham MSA - Total October Fayetteville MSA - Total October Greensboro-High Point MSA - Total October 3.1. Raleigh-Cary MSA - Total October Wilmington MSA - Total October Winston-Salem MSA - Total October Total Logging and Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality (SA) Fifth District (SA) (SA) Asheville MSA Charlotte MSA Durham MSA Fayetteville MSA Greensboro-High Point MSA Raleigh-Cary MSA Wilmington MSA Winston-Salem MSA Other Services Government

3 December 217 Labor Market Conditions Unemployment Rate (SA) October 17 September 17 October 1 Through October Fifth District Asheville MSA Charlotte MSA Durham MSA Fayetteville MSA.1.2. Greensboro-High Point MSA...3 Raleigh-Cary MSA Wilmington MSA Winston-Salem MSA.1..9 Civilian Labor Force (SA) Period Level (s) MoM % Change YoY % Change October 1, Unemployment Rate Fifth District October 1,3. 1. Labor Force October, Year-over-Year Percent Change through October Asheville MSA October Charlotte MSA October 1, Durham MSA October Fayetteville MSA October Greensboro-High Point MSA October Raleigh-Cary MSA October Wilmington MSA October Winston-Salem MSA October Initial Unemployment Claims (NSA) Period Level MoM % Change YoY % Change October 1,, Fifth District October, October 11,

4 December 217 Household Conditions Real Personal Income (SA) Period Level ($mil) QoQ % Change YoY % Change Year-over-Year Percent Change through Q2:17 Q2:17 1,, Fifth District Q2:17 1,12, Q2:17 39, Median Family Income Period Level (s) QoQ % Change YoY % Change Asheville MSA Charlotte MSA Durham MSA Fayetteville MSA Greensboro-High Point MSA Raleigh-Cary MSA Winston-Salem MSA Real Personal Income Non-Business Bankruptcies Period Level QoQ % Change YoY % Change Mortgage Delinquencies Q3:17 19, Percent 9+ Days Delinquent through Q3:17 Fifth District Q3:17 1, Q3:17 3, Mortgage Delinquencies (% 9+ Days Delinquent) Q3:17 Q2:17 Q3:1 All Mortgages Conventional - Fixed Rate Conventional - Adjustable Rate All Mortgages All Mortgages Conventional - Fixed Rate Conventional - Adjustable Rate

5 December 217 Real Estate Conditions New Housing Units Permits: New Private Housing Units (NSA) Period Level MoM % Change YoY % Change Year-over-Year Percent Change through October 217 October 11, Fifth District October 1, October, Asheville MSA October Charlotte MSA October 2, Durham MSA October Fayetteville MSA October Greensboro-High Point MSA October Greenville MSA October Hickory MSA October Jacksonville MSA October Raleigh-Cary MSA October Wilmington MSA October Winston-Salem MSA October Housing Starts Total Private Housing Starts (SAAR) Period Level (s) MoM % Change YoY % Change October 1, Fifth District October October Thousands of Units (SAAR) October 217 2

6 December 217 Real Estate Conditions House Price Index (CoreLogic) House Price Index (2=1) Period Level MoM % Change YoY % Change Year-over-Year Percent Change through September 217 September Fifth District September 19.. September Asheville MSA September Charlotte MSA September Durham MSA September Fayetteville MSA September Greensboro-High Point MSA September Greenville MSA September Hickory MSA September Jacksonville MSA September Raleigh-Cary MSA September Wilmington MSA September Winston-Salem MSA September Greensboro MSA Median Home Sales Price (NAR) Median Home Sales Price - NAR (NSA) Period Level ($s) QoQ % Change YoY % Change Charlotte MSA Q3: Durham MSA Q3: Greensboro-High Point MSA Q3: Raleigh-Cary MSA Q3: Median Home Sales Price - NAHB Period Level ($s) QoQ % Change YoY % Change Asheville MSA Q3: Charlotte MSA Q3: Durham MSA Q3: Fayetteville MSA Q3: Greensboro-High Point MSA Q3: Raleigh-Cary MSA Q3: Winston-Salem MSA Q3: Year-over-Year Percent Change through Q3:17-1

7 December 217 Real Estate Conditions Charlotte MSA Office Vacancy Rate Housing Opportunity Index (%) Q3:17 Q2:17 Q3:1 Through Q3:17 Asheville MSA Charlotte MSA Durham MSA Fayetteville MSA Greensboro-High Point MSA Raleigh-Cary MSA Winston-Salem MSA Commercial Vacancy Rates (%) Q3:17 Q2:17 Q3:1 Office Vacancies Raleigh/Durham Charlotte Retail Vacancies Raleigh/Durham Raleigh/Durham CSA Industrial Vacancy Rate Charlotte.7.9. Through Q3:17 Industrial Vacancies Raleigh/Durham Charlotte