SEEK EI, May Commentary

Transcription

1 SEEK EI, May 13 Commentary Recent data from the SEEK Employment Indicators have indicated that the demand for labour (as measured by new job ads placed with SEEK) had stabilised between November 12 and March 13, perhaps as a result of cuts in interest rates and rising confidence, but that this stabilisation came to an end in April 13. The data for May 13 confirm this reading, with new job ads falling by 3.2% in May on top of a (revised) fall of 2.5% in April, to be 17.8% lower in May 13 than a year earlier. New job ads are now lower that at any time since the end of 09, when the economy was still recovering from the financial crisis. The SEEK Employment Index - the ratio of new job ads placed with SEEK to the number of applications for those jobs also fell in May 13, by 1.7%, and was.9% lower than a year earlier. This modest decline in the Index in May followed large falls in the previous two months, totalling 8.3% The fall in new job ads in May 13 was particularly evident in Western tralia (6.5%) and in Victoria (3.9%), and also in Queensland (2.1%). The rapid drop in new job ads in Western tralia from its peak in early 12 (see Figure 1a) is a striking feature of the recent data. Over the past year job ads in that state have fallen by.9%, and the fall in Queensland has been 26.3%. For big mining projects new job ads are likely to be a very early indicator of actual demand for labour, because of long construction processes, but they are a sign of the potential impact on these states of the completion of such projects. As projects are completed and go on stream production and exports will rise sharply, but these processes are highly capital intensive and require little labour. In terms of new job ads the best performing state so far this year has been New South Wales, where job ads in the five months to May 13 have declined by only 2.2%, by comparison with falls of 6.3% in Victoria, 12.9% in Western tralia and the national average fall of 5.8%. For some years New South Wales has been one of the weaker state economies, but there are signs that this is changing. These signs have been reinforced by the SEEK figures so far in 13. The overall economic data for tralia continue to provide mixed signals, but prospects for the labour market are less positive than for output as a whole, because of a shift from resource investment to mining production with low labour requirements. Taken in this broader context, the SEEK data for the past two months suggest that further increases in unemployment are likely though 13 unless much more expansionary policies are put in place. The limited depreciation of the $A which has taken place over the past month or so will do little, of itself, to change this outlook.

2 Figure 1a. New job ads in tralia, five mainland states (seas. adjusted, May 10 = 100) NSW VIC QLD WA t Professor Peter Sheehan Research Director, Centre for Strategic Economic Studies, Victoria University 2. SEEK EI May 13

3 The SEEK Employment Index is the first tralian indicator to measure labour market supply and compare this against labour market demand. Each monthly release includes two key indicators: 1. The SEEK Employment Index (SEI), a dynamic snapshot of matching between the supply of jobseekers and demand for workers (i.e., the ratio of new job advertisements posted on the SEEK website to job applications for those ads); and 2. Candidate Demand, as measured by new job advertisements posted on the SEEK website; These indicators provide useful insights into the dynamics of the tralian labour market. For further explanation on the applications of use please refer to the SEEK Employment Index launch document available at Figure 1. SEEK Employment Index (Average = 100), seasonally adjusted Tightening labour market Softening labour market The seasonally adjusted, SEEK Employment Indicator (SEI) - the ratio of new job ads placed with SEEK to the number of applications for those jobs fell 1.7% in May 13, following a revised fall of 4.1% in April. The SEI is now.9% lower than a year earlier. The SEI fell in New South Wales (-1.4%), Victoria (-1.8%), South tralia (-2.2%), Western tralia (-4.3%), Northern Territory (-10.3%) and ACT (-8.1%) but rose in Queensland (0.1%) and Tasmania (18.9%). When compared to May four years ago, the adjusted SEI series this month is lower by 26% in tralia, by % in New South Wales, by 21% in Victoria, by 28% in Queensland, by 19% in South tralia, and by 42% in Western tralia. 3. SEEK EI May 13

4 Figure 2. SEEK New Job Ads Index (Average = 100), seasonally adjusted The monthly series of SEEK New Job Ads declined 3.2% in May 13, following a persistent downward trend since February 12. The SEEK New Job Ads index is 17.8% lower than last year. The New Job Ads index fell in most regions: New South Wales (-1.9%), Victoria (-3.9%), Queensland (-2.1%), South tralia (-0.4%), Western tralia (-6.5%), Tasmania (3.8%) and ACT (-6.9%) but Northern Territory (2.3%). When compared to May four years ago, the adjusted SEEK New Job Ads series is lower in tralia (18%) and in all states: New South Wales (9%), Victoria (13%), Queensland (26%), South tralia (16%), and in Western tralia (31%). 4. SEEK EI May 13

5 The following charts illustrate the SEEK Employment Index by State and Territory. State and Territory is determined by the classification of the job advertisement, not necessarily by the locality of the position. Figure 3. SEEK Employment index by Region (Average = 100), seasonally adjusted NSW Qld WA NT Vic SA 15 Tas 10 Act Note: The concurrent approach to seasonal adjustment was adopted in July 06. This involves the use of the complete series in adjusting for seasonal factors such as Easter, working day and holiday effects. Thus, some of the historical estimates may be different to those reported in earlier releases. 5. SEEK EI May 13

6 Table 1. SEEK Employment Index (SEEK EI) (see Figure 1) Month EI Index Orig. EI Index SA Annual % Change Monthly % Change May % -2.9 % Jun % -5.1 % Jul % 3.8 % Aug % 0.3 % Sep % 2.5 % Oct % 6.4 % Nov % 4.8 % Dec % 2.7 % Jan % 3.1 % Feb % 0.4 % Mar % 2.1 % Apr % 0.5 % May % 3.3 % Jun % 2.1 % Jul % 3.7 % Aug % 0.1 % Sep % 0.0 % Oct % 3.8 % Nov % 1.8 % Dec % 1.3 % Jan % 1.4 % Feb % -2.7 % Mar % 0.8 % Apr % 3.2 % May % -5.3 % Jun % -3.0 % Jul % 1.1 % Aug % -3.4 % Sep % -2.3 % Oct % -0.5 % Nov % -2.8 % Dec % 5.2 % Jan % -0.5 % Feb % -2.0 % Mar % 0.4 % Apr % -2.7 % May % -3.1 % Jun % -0.4 % Jul % -2.8 % Aug % -1.4 % Sep % -3.6 % Oct % -7.5 % Nov % 0.8 % Dec % -2.0 % Jan % -0.2 % Feb % -2.1 % Mar % -4.3 % Apr % -4.1 % May % -1.7 % Note: The concurrent approach to seasonal adjustment was adopted in July 06. This involves the use of the complete series in adjusting for seasonal factors such as working day and holiday effects. Thus, some of the historical estimates may be different to those reported in earlier releases. Annual change is the percentage change from the same month in the previous year. Monthly change is the change from the previous month. 6. SEEK EI May 13

7 Table 2. SEEK New Job Ads Posted During Month Index (see Figure 2) Month Ads Index Orig. Ads Index SA Annual % Change Monthly % Change May % -1.4 % Jun % -0.9 % Jul % 1.0 % Aug % 5.2 % Sep % 3.3 % Oct % 4.0 % Nov % 3.2 % Dec % 3.4 % Jan % 6.4 % Feb % 0.7 % Mar % 1.2 % Apr % 0.9 % May % 4.6 % Jun % 1.6 % Jul % 6.3 % Aug % -1.8 % Sep % 0.2 % Oct % 2.7 % Nov % 1.5 % Dec % 5.1 % Jan % 2.2 % Feb % -1.6 % Mar % 0.2 % Apr % 3.8 % May % -1.6 % Jun % -2.3 % Jul % -1.0 % Aug % -0.0 % Sep % 0.1 % Oct % -0.9 % Nov % -0.3 % Dec % 1.2 % Jan % 1.4 % Feb % -1.2 % Mar % -1.6 % Apr % -1.8 % May % -2.3 % Jun % -1.1 % Jul % -2.0 % Aug % -0.8 % Sep % -3.2 % Oct % -3.3 % Nov % -2.3 % Dec % -0.7 % Jan % 2.7 % Feb % -2.6 % Mar % -0.4 % Apr % -2.5 % May % -3.2 % Note: The concurrent approach to seasonal adjustment was adopted in July 06. This involves the use of the complete series in adjusting for seasonal factors such as working day and holiday effects. Thus, some of the historical estimates may be different to those reported in earlier releases. Annual change is the percentage change from the same month in the previous year. Monthly change is the change from the previous month. 7. SEEK EI May 13

8 Table 3. SEEK New Jobs Ads Posted, by State, Seasonally Adjusted Data Index Month NSW VIC QLD SA WA TAS NT ACT AUS May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Note: The concurrent approach to seasonal adjustment was adopted in July 06. This involves the use of the complete series in adjusting for seasonal factors such as working day and holiday effects. Thus, some of the historical estimates may be different to those reported in earlier releases. TAS and NT sample sizes are limited and as such should be interpreted with caution. Also the state and national series are seasonally adjusted separately and, as a result, there may be some discrepancy between the national and the average of the state series. 8. SEEK EI May 13

9 Table 4. SEEK EI, by State (see State charts) Month NSW VIC QLD SA WA TAS NT ACT AUS May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Note: The concurrent approach to seasonal adjustment was adopted in July 06. This involves the use of the complete series in adjusting for seasonal factors such as working day and holiday effects. Thus, some of the historical estimates may be different to those reported in earlier releases. Annual change is the percentage change from the same month in the previous year. Also, the state and national series are seasonally adjusted separately and, as a result, there may be some discrepancy between the national and the average of the state series. 9. SEEK EI May 13

10 An explanation of the SEEK indicators are as follows: Advertiser an individual or organisation who has placed an advertisement on the SEEK website. SEEK charges advertisers to post an advertisement to the website. Application a response made to a job advertisement via the SEEK website through the Apply Now function, which sends responses directly to the advertiser. Duplicate Job Advertisement a job advertisement consisting of the same title and content as another advertisement posted to the SEEK website in the same month. This includes advertisements posted to different classifications (industry, occupation and location). Index a numerical scale used to compare variables with one another or with some reference number ( indexation point ). It illustrates relative changes in data over time. Industry defined as the SEEK industry classification in which the job advertisement was first placed, eg. Accounting. SEEK industry classifications have been mapped to the ANZSIC industry codes. Job Advertisement a posting made to the SEEK website advertising a specific position of employment that is available to be filled. Jobseeker an individual who visits the SEEK website with the view to searching for a job opportunity. SEEK does not charge jobseekers to apply for jobs. Labour market demand a measure of the level and composition of employment that employers wish to engage at a given point in time; given current wage rates, output levels and other relevant factors. Labour market supply a measure of the number of people seeking new employment including those working or available for work. It reflects the availability and willingness of actual and potential employees to supply labour of a particular structure and composition, given wage rates and other working conditions. Linked-Out Job Advertisement a job advertisement that requires applications to be lodged via a third-party website. The SEEK database does not record application volumes for linked-out advertisements. Location defined as the SEEK location classification in which the job advertisement was first placed, eg. Brisbane. Locations are broken down into Metro and Non-Metro. New Job Ads this is the number of new job ads posted on seek.com.au in that month. The series is adjusted to ensure that multiple postings count as only one ad. Multiple postings occur when an ad is posted several times across several classifications or when a client cancels and re-posts the same ad within the same month. Due to data availability, the New Job Ads series at the State level has not been adjusted for postings in multiple states. Seasonal Adjustment Seasonal adjustment was carried out by the SEATS/TRAMO model developed by the Bank of Spain. The model employs signal extraction techniques to pre-adjust the series for outlier and calendar effects. The adjustment accounts for working day and holiday effects. Also, the concurrent approach to seasonal adjustment was adopted in May 06. This means that each month the above model is reestimated using the full data set available to that month. Thus, historical seasonally adjusted data may vary slightly from month to month, as revised seasonal factors are applied to the fixed original data. Note also that in order to account for regional diversity and to arrive at more robust adjustments for the national series, the state and national series are adjusted separately and, thus, there may be some discrepancy between the national and the average of the state series from time to time. SEEK Employment Index (EI) the number of new job ads posted on SEEK per applications received. Job applications for job ads that are Linked Out (i.e., channelled outside the SEEK website and for which applications are lodged directly with a third party) are imputed on the assumption that linkedout jobs attract as many applications as the non-linked out ads. The job applications series includes applications made on SEEK in the month and applications received 7 days into the next month for jobs posted in the previous month. The latter is initially forecast and subsequently updated with actual figures. Disclaimer This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any recipient for any purpose. Under no circumstances is this document to be used or considered to be an offer to sell, or to be soliciting an offer to buy. The information and any opinions contained in this document have been obtained from and are based upon, sources that are believed to be reliable. The views expressed in this document accurately reflect the authors personal views. The authors make no representation as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and/or opinions and neither the information nor the opinions should be relied upon as such. All opinions and estimates contained in this document reflect the authors judgments on the date of this document and may change without notice from time to time. The authors compensation, remuneration or any money paid to the authors for production of this document was in no way, and never will be directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations, views or opinions expressed about any matter contained in this document. The Centre for Strategic Economic Studies and Victoria University disclaim any responsibility, and shall not be liable for data provided by SEEK Limited and market analysis based on these data. SEEK Limited and its related bodies corporate, their respective directors, officers, and employees disclaim any responsibility, and shall not be liable, for any loss, damage, claim, liability, proceedings, cost or expense ( Liability ) arising directly or indirectly (and whether in tort (including negligence), contract, equity or otherwise) out of or in connection with the contents of and/or any omissions from the contents of this document and/or any communications in relation to them. Occupation defined as the SEEK occupation classification in which the job advertisement was first placed, eg. Payroll. There are over 0 SEEK occupational categories. 10. SEEK EI May 13