Determining Residual Flood Risk Associated with a
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1 Determining Residual Flood Risk Associated with a Complex Levee System in Fort Bend County, TX NAFSMA Annual Meeting 2017, Charleston, SC Andre McDonald & Richard Lewis
2 Outline 1. The Fort Bend levee system 2. Background on system flood risk modelling What is it What is its purpose What does it look like 3. Applying system flood risk modelling to Fort Bend Phase 1 - Levee reliability analysis 4. Next steps
3 881 Counties Nationwide with Levees 19 Levee Improvement Districts in FBC 41 Flood Control Entities in Fort Bend County June 2011
4 Fort Bend County Floodplains HR Wallingford 2016
5 Fort Bend County Levees 19 Levee Districts in Ft. Bend County 99 miles of levees 27 miles of Brazos River levees Protect $23+ billion in assessed taxable value 1 in 4 Fort Bend County residents lives behind a levee
6 Fort Bend County Levees
7 What does a levee look like?
8 2016 Memorial Day Flood Pump Stations
9
10 What are levees? Or rather, what levees are not. Flood Control Works NOT JUST SOME BIG MOUND OF DIRT Not Landscape Berms Not Parks Not Hiking Trails Not Utility Corridors (Sometimes They Are) Not Power Company Roads
11 What level of protection do we have? FEMA Minimum Height 3 Freeboard above 100-yr BFE on Brazos River FBC Added an Additional 1-foot of Freeboard (Ft. Bend Foot) FEMA Recognizes 100-yr Protection on FIRMs Actual Overtopping Protection Above 500-yr Protection Some Districts Have Potential For Being Flanked ( +/- 500-yr) Internal Drainage Systems Designed for Local 100-yr Rainfall, with River well BELOW Flood Stages Pump Stations Designed for Coincidental Event Local Rainfall while River is NEAR Flood Stages
12 Ft. Bend LID 2 Map 5,313 acres protected by levees 11.3 miles of earthen levee and 8.4 miles of drainage channels Two storm water pump stations William Bill Little Pump Station 4 pumps capable of a combined 240,000 gpm Pump Station F 4 pumps capable of a combined 80,000 gpm Little Pump Sta.
13 Ft. Bend County Levee Improvement District Special District established in 1975 to provide flood protection from the Brazos River and to convey storm water out of the District $4,815,810,202 assessed value of property and structures (2016) About 10,000 homes and hundreds of business Major transportation arteries US 59 and SH 6 Sugar Land City Hall, Police, Fire, and Emergency Operations Center Multiple hospital complexes No. 2 Major retail centers including Sugar Land Town Square and First Colony Mall
14 What is flood risk? Flood Risk = probability of consequence
15 The Traditional (Deterministic) Approach Traditional and risk-based approaches for flood systems Assumed Load Assumed System Performance Consequence 1 in 100 year WL Levees perform as designed α properties flooded The Probabilistic (Risk-based) Approach Range of Loads System Responses Results 1 in 10 year WL 1 in 20 year WL Levee A Levee B Levee N Non Failed Non Failed Non Failed Failed Non Failed Non Failed Non Failed Failed Non Failed 1 in 1,000 year WL Non Failed Non Failed Failed
16 Full risk analysis approach (addresses both probability components) Flood risk = Probability Load Probability (Breach and or overtopping) Consequence $
17 Likelihood of flooding for the present day HR Wallingford 2016
18 Likelihood of tidal flooding if we do nothing HR Wallingford 2016
19 Present value damage if we do nothing 5B HR Wallingford 2016
20 Risk attribution to levees
21 Attributing risk to levee system: Volume Tracking
22 Fort Bend Risk analysis: Levee segments Segmentation by: Geo-technical information (borehole data). Crest-level Local features.
23 Identification of Limit State Equations (LSE s): RELIABLE Model Failure mode External erosion Through-seepage Under-seepage Protected side heave Failure mode description Erosion of rear face of an embankment due to overtopping, leading to down cutting and hence breach Seepage through levee in the embankment (based on steady state conditions) which could lead to piping. Piping under levee due to under seepage (based on steady state conditions), conditional on the following heave/uplift mechanism Heave/uplift behind levee due to under-seepage (based on steady state conditions)
24 Probability of Failure Fragility analysis: LID 2 results 1 Freeboard (feet) Seg FID = 1 Seg FID = 33 Seg FID = Seg FID = 36 Seg FID = 7 Seg FID = 8 Seg FID = Seg FID = 19 Seg FID = Seg FID = 21 Seg FID = 6 and 20 Seg FID = 45 Seg FID = 44 Seg FID = 22 Seg FID = 43 Seg FID = 35 Seg 35 Seg Freeboard (m)
25 Fort bend system risk modelling
26 Next steps Full dynamic system risk model High resolution (sub-property level), dynamic, FSWE inundation modelling Large numbers of extreme events Large number of breach scenarios Representation of full probability space Revised levee representation for multiple layers GPU Cloud
27 Without flood control, nothing else matters. - Association of Levee Boards of Louisiana André McDonald director1@fbclid2.com Richard Lewis r.lewis@hrwallingford.com
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