Security Outlook of the Asia Pacific Countries and Its Implications for the Defense Sector

Transcription

1 Security Outlook of the Asia Pacific Countries and Its Implications for the Defense Sector The National Institute for Defense Studies, Japan NIDS JOINT RESEARCH SERIES No. 15

2 Published by: The National Institute for Defense Studies 5-1, Ichigaya-Honmuracho, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, , Japan Phone: Fax: ISBN: The views expressed in this publication are solely of the authors, and do not necessarily represent those of the institutions or governments of the authors. Copyright 2017 The National Institute for Defense Studies All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in retrieval system or be transmitted in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise) without the written permission from the publisher. Edited in collaboration with Urban Connections

3 Contents CHAPTER Cambodia s Strategic and Security Situation and Prospects: Implications for Defense Policy Veasna Var Introduction...7 Overview of Cambodia s Current Political Landscape...10 Cambodia between the US and China s Strategic Competition...12 Cambodia s Dilemma at Sea: Between China and ASEAN...18 Implications for the Defense Sector...21 Prospects for Regional Cooperation: Some Concluding Thoughts...28 CHAPTER Indonesia s Security and Defense Outlook: Evolving Low-Intensity Threats and Recalibrated Countermeasures Iis Gindarsah Introduction...31 Low-level Local Insurgencies...31 Renewed Threats of Home-grown Terrorism...33 Low-Intensity Threats to Maritime Security...35 Progresses of Military Modernization...37 New Defense White Paper...40 Concluding Remarks...41 CHAPTER Myanmar Security Trend and Outlook: Tatmadaw in a New Political Environment Tin Maung Maung Than Introduction...43 The fighting continues...44 Tatmadaw and peace...49 Tatmadaw s other activities...50 Tatmadaw command and force modernization...54 Concluding Remarks...59

4 CHAPTER Security Challenges for Malaysia: Defending the Nation State Elina Noor Preface...62 Territorial incursions...63 Radicalisation and the threat of violent extremism...67 Nation-building and national integration...69 Summary and recommendations...70 CHAPTER The Philippines Security Outlook 2016: Dramatic Changes, Persistent Challenges, and Uncertain Prospects Aries A. Arugay Introduction...73 Security Challenges: Drugs, Criminality, and Terrorism...75 Military Re-Reorientation: Policy Shifts and Continuities...79 Duterte s Foreign and Security Policy Chessboard(s): The Philippines as a Small Power...81 More Change is Coming? Prospects for Security Cooperation...84 CHAPTER Singapore s Security Outlook in 2016: High and Low Points LAM Peng Er Introduction...87 End of a special relationship with China?...88 Singapore s security concern: Terrorism...94 Singapore s international contributions to regional security...94 Singapore s 2016 defence budget and new weapon acquisitions...95 Epilogue...96 CHAPTER Thailand After King Bhumibol: Foreign and Security Policy Implications Thitinan Pongsudhirak Introduction...97 The end of Thailand s glorious reign...98 Thailand s roadmap going forward President Trump and the geopolitics of Southeast Asia Thailand Security Outlook in the Regional Mix...104

5 CHAPTER Challenges and Opportunities in Vietnam-US relationships: A Vietnam Perspective Tran Truong Thuy CHAPTER China s Mounting Domestic and International Challenges in 2017 You Ji Introduction The Latest Round of PLA Reforms Worsening Sino-US relations under the New President of America The Korean Challenge The THAAD challenge Conclusion CHAPTER The United States in 2016: Security Developments & Implications for Defense Policy, the Security Sector and Asia-Pacific Security Cooperation/ Coordination Satu Limaye Major Security Policy Developments for the United States in Short and Mid-to-Long Term Implications for U.S. Defense Policy & Defense Sector Future Prospects for Regional Security Policy Cooperation and Coordination CHAPTER Japan s Security Challenges: North Korea, China, and Peacekeeping Operations Ken Ohnishi Introduction East Asia: Traditional Challenges Peacekeeping Operations: New Challenges Conclusion Contributors

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