Soviet Tactical Nuclear
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1 Director of Central Intelligence Soviet Tactical Nuclear Forces and Gorbachevfs Nuclear Pledges: Impact, MotivationsF and Next Steps ux+wr Interagency Intelligence Memorandum
2 Director of Central Intelligence Soviet Tactical Nuclear Forces and Gorbachevfs Nuclear Pledges: Impact, Motivations, and Next S tepsw /nforrnation avatjabk as of November was used ;n the preparat~on of this Memorandum. The fo/low;nq ~nte//;gence organ~zarions pantcipateo' in the prepara!/on of [his Memvrandurn: The Central lntell~gence Agency The Defense lntell~gence Agency The Nattonal Secur~ty Agency The Bureau of Inieliigence and Research. Department of State a/so,daflicipatlng The D~rector of Naval lntell~gence, Department of the Navy The Ass~stant Chief of S~aff, lnxelligence, Department of 1i1e AI~ Force
3 15. (Continued) - Soviet Tactical Nuclear Forces and Gorbachevfs Nuclear Pledges: Impactf Motivations, and Next Step- # If Gorbachev's unilater~l initiatives ta reduce tactical nuclear warheads are carried out, almmt 75 percent of Moscow's inventory of these warheads will be destroyed or pluceii in central sfortzge. 4-w If Gorbachev's reclprocul proposals are implemented, a11 of the Soviet inventory of tactical nuclear warheads will be destroyed or placed in centrul st0ruge.w) The elimination process will take at least several years.-) Soviet arms control positions probabiy are not fully worked out, but in the futu~e Soviet negotiators are likely to become more flexible and abandon most old agemda items with the exception of duaicapable aircraft and the nuclear weapons of other countries. iii
4 Key Judgments - The Potential Impact of Gorbachev's Proposais The withdrawal of many Soviet units from Eastern Europe and reductions in the size and number of units within the Atlantic-to-the-Urals zone that have occurred over the past two years already have caused a sharp decline in the number of tactical nuclear systems in Soviet forces oppasi te 3 ATO. President Gorbachev's 5 October proposals, if implemented, further advance that mocess. We estimate that unilateral measures will lead to the tactical naval nuciear warheads will be moved to central storiigc. is SF! A unitatera] reduction on this scale will: * Eiiminate the nuclear capability of Soviet Ground Forces. Increase the amount of time the Soviet Navy will require to arm 11s ships, submarines, andraircraft with nuclear munitions. Take at least several years to implement. +twj Reciprocal measures proposed by Gorbachev would, if irnpl&n?c~k!d. 0 Eliminate the tactical nudear capabiiity of the Soviet Navy. Limit the air forces' quick-rawnse tactical nuclear eapabiiit! kt) placing warheads in central storage. Moti~ations Behind the Proposals The speed and content of Gorbachev's response to President Bwh*, initiative of 27 September reflect the high priority Soviet oric1a1, place on auclear security; Elimination of all nuclear artillery projectile$ and short-raagc bgill~stic missile (SRBM) warheads wi1i remove most of the tactical nuclear warheads located in non-russian republics. Gorbachev is using the US proposal to reassert himself as a re11'1bie and credible negotiating partner, but his capability to fulfiu cort~ple~cl~ hi3 own proposais is questionable. The Future of Soviet Tactical Nuclear Weapons aod Negotiating Positions Dismantling and destroying nuclear warheads is a complcx and t imconsuming process, and any new union, therefore, is likely to retain a tactical nucjear capability for the foreseeable future. &wv
5 Because of continuing improvements in conventionai weapon systems, the senior Soviet leadership has probably wncludd that tactical nuclear warheads can be etiminated or stored without significantty compromising the war-fighting capabilities they will require. +iw)- The Soviets probably have not had enough time to think out fully their negotiating positions. We believe the Soviets are likely to:. Be less insistent on old agenda items and display considerable flexibility, while trying to preserve the option to revisit issues, especially those affected by evolving relations between the center and the republics. Maintain a low-key approach to further negotiations to avoid kindling the interest of republic leaders in becoming full players in formal talks. 4=fw- Carryovers from the old Soviet agenda, however, will include concern about US dual-capable aircraft and inclusion of other countries in discussions of tactical nuclear systems. This posture may reflect a greater concern about proliferation to the south and on the continent than about the United Kingdom and France.-@-mj- At a minimum, the Soviets will seek a process of consultations during all phases of the implementation of US and Soviet reductions. They probably will also seek technical-and perhaps financial-aid in dismantling and destroying warheads.+i&r Disarray in Moscow and evolving political relations will complicate the negotiating process for some time. Elements in the military may still be recaicitrant, and the republics--especially Russia, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine-want a greater say in the Kremlin's nuclear decisionmaking. m
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