Afghanistan Index. Tracking Variables of Reconstruction & Security in Post-9/11 Afghanistan. Jason H. Campbell and Jeremy Shapiro May 26, 2009

Transcription

1 Afghanistan Index Tracking Variables of Reconstruction & Security in Post-9/11 Afghanistan Jason H. Campbell and Jeremy Shapiro May 26, 29

2 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 Security Indicators 1.1 Estimated Number of Afghan Civilian Fatalities as a Direct Result of Fighting Between Pro-Government Forces 4 and Anti-Government Entities (AGE), A Estimated Total Afghan Civilian Casualties by Month, 27 & B Detail of Estimated 28 Afghan Civilian Fatalities, by Incident Type U.S. Troop Fatalities since 7, Cause of Death for U.S. Troops American Military Fatalities by Category, 7, 21-Present U.S. Troops Wounded in Action since 7, British Military Fatalities in Afghanistan since Canadian Military Fatalities in Afghanistan since Non-US Coalition Troop Fatalities by Country since Afghan National Army (ANA) and Afghan National Police (ANP) Personnel Fatalities, January 27-Present Estimated Order of Battle Map of U.S. and NATO-ISAF Troops American Troops Deployed to Afghanistan by Mission Troops Committed to NATO s International Security Assistance Mission (ISAF) by Country Total NATO-ISAF Manpower by Regional Command, Since Size of Afghan Security Forces on Duty Annual Growth of Afghan National Army (ANA), by Number of Troops, 23-Present Annual Recruitment Figures for Afghan National Army (ANA) A Capability Milestone (CM) Assessment of Afghan National Army (ANA) Units and Headquarters Detailed Breakdown of Afghan Ministry of Interior Forces Defense Assessment of Afghan National Police (ANP) Capabilities Recruitment Figures for the Various Programs of the Afghan National Police (ANP), Number of U.S. and NATO Teams/Personnel Required and Assigned to Train and Mentor Afghan National 15 Security Forces (ANSF) 1.21 Number and Nationality of Personnel Devoted to the European Union Police (EUPOL) Mission to Afghanistan U.S. Departments of Defense and State Support to Train and Equip the Afghan Army and Police, Fiscal Years A Appropriated U.S. Funding for Afghanistan by Agency, FY 21-FY 29 Bridge Number of Insurgent Attacks by Month and Type, January 27-Present A Number of Improvised Explosive Device (IED) Events by Month, 27-Present Comparison of Incidents Carried Out by Taliban/Anti-Government Elements (TB/AGE) by Province, Weeks (January thru Mid-) for 27 and U.S. Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) Authorized/On Hand Staffing by Location Country Leadership and Location of Non-U.S. PRT s Estimated Number of Afghan Refugees in the Region by Location Afghan Refugees Voluntarily Repatriated by Country, Estimated Number of Internally Displaced Persons (IDP s) 21 2 Governance and Rule of Law Indicators 2.1 Afghanistan Population and Demographic Information Size, Gender, and ethnic Makeup of Afghanistan s Main Legislative Bodies 22 2

3 2.3 Where Afghans Choose to Take Different Types of Legal Cases Highest Level Degree Acquired by Judges Responding to a Random Survey Access to Legal Resources for Judges Responding to a Random Survey Annual Poppy Cultivation in Afghanistan (Hectares) and Percentage of Global Cultivation, Annual Opium Production in Afghanistan (Metric Tons) and Percentage of Global Production, Opium Poppy Cultivation Levels in Afghanistan (with Top-Producing Provinces), Snapshot Comparison of Afghanistan s Top Opium-Producing Provinces, Based on Amount of Land Devoted to Cultivation, 24 & Monthly Farm-Gate Cost of Dry Opium Since September 24 (US$/KG) Afghanistan s Rank in Reporters Without Borders Index of Press Freedom, Afghanistan s Rank in Transparency International s Annual Corruption Perceptions Index Afghanistan s Rank in the Brookings Institution s Index of State Weakness in the Developing World, Economic and Quality of Life Indicators 3.1 Annual Inflation Real GDP (Total, Per Capita and Growth), GDP Growth and Sector Contributions to Growth, A Annual Production of Major Agricultural Produce, by Planting Season B Value of Exported Afghan Agricultural Produce, Breakdown of Afghan Annual Budget (Core vs. External), FY 25/26 thru 27/ Comparison of Electricity Supply Sources and Capacity: 1979, 22 and Estimated Number of Telephone Users in Afghanistan by Year, Estimated Percentage of Afghans with Access to Water/Sanitation Facilities Education Metrics Poverty Levels, Foreign Aid Pledged, Committed and Disbursed, Annual Value of Imports and Exports, with Top Trade Partners, Microfinance Clients, Borrowers and Loan Amounts Healthcare Metrics 33 4 Pakistan 4.1 Comparison of Various Metrics from Pakistan s Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) vs. the Rest of 34 Pakistan 4.2 Health Metrics for FATA Force Strength of Pakistani Security Forces Who Regularly Operate in FATA A A U.S. Special Forces (USSOF) Conducting Counterinsurgency Training to Frontier Corps (FC) Officers Percentage of U.S. Funding Directed Towards Various Programs in Pakistan s Federally Administered Tribal Areas 35 (FATA) and Border Region, Pakistani Public Opinion 35 5 Polling and Public Opinion Afghanistan: Where Things Stand (ABC News/BBC/ARD) Afghanistan in 28: A Survey of the Afghan People (Asia Foundation) Afghanistan: Public Opinion Trends and Strategic Implications (Charney Research) 44 For more information please contact Jason Campbell at jhcampbell@brookings.edu 3

4 FIGURE 1.1 Estimated Number of Afghan Civilian Fatalities as A Direct Result of Fighting Between Pro-Government Forces and Anti-Government Entities (Age), Note on the Methodology of the Afghanistan Index: Although the footnotes to the Afghanistan Index document our sources in detail, it is worth noting here a few broad points. The majority of our information comes from the U.S. Government, though we must often analyze it and process it further to show trends over the full period since 21. Some information comes from foreign journalists on the ground and from nongovernmental organizations; a very modest amount to date comes from Afghan sources. Most tables and charts are straightforward representations of data as we obtain it from the above primary sources, with only modest further analysis and processing required. However, a few graphics, such as those on crime and unemployment rates, require more methodological work (and more assumptions) on our part and are as a result also perhaps somewhat less precise than most of the tables and charts. 1. SECURITY INDICATORS 2 15 Non-Attributable AGE Pro-Government * *THRU APRIL FIGURES IN DETAIL TOTAL 929 1,523 2, Attributed to: Pro-Government Forces 23 (25%) 629 (41%) 828 (39%) 144 (35%) Anti-Government Entities 699 (75%) 7 (46%) 1,16 (55%) 219 (53%) Could not be attributed 194 (13%) 13 (6%) 53 (13%) NOTE: Pro-Government Forces (PGF) include Afghan Government and all international forces. Figures from 26 are from Human Rights Watch. Subsequent figures provided by UN Assistance Mission for Afghanistan. HRW s estimate for 27 was 1,633 total such civilian fatalities, with 434 (27%) attributable to PGF and 95 (58%) attributable to AGE. Non-attributable deaths refer to those caused by such things as crossfire, mines and any other violence not directly connected to a conflicting party. 4

5 FIGURE 1.1.A Estimated Total Afghan Civilian Fatalities by Month, 27 to Present January 27 February May June Signifies start of a new calendar year August September November December January 28 February FIGURE 1.1.B Detail of Estimated 28 Afghan Civilian Fatalities, By Incident Type May June August September November December January February 77 Executions by AGE* 13% Other Incidents 25% Suicide & IED Attacks by AGE* 34% Air Strikes by Pro-Gov't Forces 26% Escalation of Force by Pro-Gov't Forces 2% *AGE= Anti-Government Entities (i.e. Taliban and other insurgents) NOTE: Percentages based on an estimate of 2,118 total civilian fatalities in 28. 5

6 FIGURE 1.2 U.S. Troop Fatalities since 7, Oct-1 Jan Jan Jan-4 Total from 7, 21 through May 25, 29: Fatalities (all kinds): 683 Fatalities in hostile incidents: 457 Fatalities in non-hostile incidents: Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan * The actual figure for non-hostile fatalities is shown only for months in which there were more than 2 such incidents. Indicates the start of a new calendar year FIGURE 1.3 Cause of Death for Us Troops, By Year 5 Year Improvised Explosive Device Suicide Bombs Mortars/RPG s/ Rockets Landmine Helicopter Losses* Aircraft Losses* Other Hostile Fire Non- Hostile Causes* 21 (%) (%) (%) (%) 2 (16.7%) (%) 4 (33.3%) 6 (5.%) (1.2%) (%) 1 (2.%) 1 (2.%) 4 (8.2%) 18 (36.7%) 12 (24.5%) 8 (16.3%) (2.1%) (%) (%) (%) 19 (39.6%) (%) 12 (25.%) 16 (33.3%) (23.1%) (%) 1 (1.9%) 1 (1.9%) 2 (3.8%) 3 (5.8%) 1 (19.2%) 23 (44.2%) (18.2%) (%) 2 (2.%) 5 (5.1%) 36 (36.4%) 1 (1.%) 2 (2.2%) 17 (17.2%) (27.6%) 3 (3.1%) 1 (1.%) 1 (1.%) 21 (21.4%) (%) 33 (33.7%) 12 (12.2%) (28.2%) 1 (.9%) 9 (7.7%) 1 (.9%) 13 (11.1%) (%) 35 (29.9%) 25 (21.4%) (54.2%) 4 (2.6%) 7 (4.5%) 2 (1.3%) 2 (1.3%) (%) 36 (23.2%) 2 (13.3%) (45.%) 3 (5.%) 2 (3.3%) (%) 2 (3.3%) (%) 17 (28.3%) 9 (15.%) 6 Total 27 (3.%) 11 (1.6%) 23 (3.3%) 11 (1.6%) 11 (14.6%) 22 (3.2%) 179 (25.9%) 136 (19.7%) 69 Through May 25, 29 *Helicopter and aircraft losses include deaths caused by both non-hostile accidents and those downed by hostile fire. The Non-Hostile Causes data then does not include non-hostile helicopter or aircraft losses. Total 6

7 FIGURE 1.4 American Military Casualties by Category: 7, 21 May 2, 29 6 Category Gender Age Component Military service Officers/Enlisted Race/Ethnicity Total fatalities as of May 2, 29: 676 Male: Female: Younger than 22: 22-24: 25-3: 31-35: Older than 35: Active: Reserve: National Guard: Army: Marines: Navy: Air Force: Officer: E5-E9: E1-E4: American Indian or Alaska Native: Asian: Black or African American: Hispanic or Latino: Multiple races, pending or unknown: Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander: White: FIGURE 1.5 U.S. Troops Wounded In Action since 7, Oct-1 Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan-8 Total from 7, 21 through May 25, 29: 2,843 The daily Department of Defense casualty reports that we use for our monthly estimates on U.S troops wounded does not make it entirely clear when in a 24-hour period casualties were incurred. Since the reports are published at 1AM daily, there is possibility that our numbers for January 25 and onwards are slightly off due to uncertainties about whether casualties occurred on the first or the last of each month Jan

8 FIGURE 1.6 British Military Fatalities in Afghanistan since the start of Jan-6 May September November Jan-7 May September November Jan-8 May September November Jan-9 May Total through May 25, 29: 161 NOTE ON THIS GRAPH: From 22-25, the British military suffered 5 fatalities that are reflected in the total. FIGURE 1.7 Canadian Military Fatalities in Afghanistan since the start of Jan-6 May September November Jan-7 May September November Jan-8 May September November Jan-9 May Total through May 25, 29: 118 NOTE ON THIS GRAPH: From 22-25, the Canadian military suffered 8 fatalities that are reflected in the total. 8

9 FIGURE 1.8 Non-U.S. Coalition Troop Fatalities by Country since United Kingdom Canada Germany France Spain Denmark Netherlands Italy Romania Australia Poland Norway Czech Republic Estonia Latvia Hungary Portugal Sweden Finland Lithuania South Korea Total through May 25, 29: 468 FIGURE 1.9 Afghan National Army (ANA) and Afghan National Police (ANP) Personnel Fatalities, January 27-Present ANP ANA January 27 February May June August September November December January 28 February May June August September ANNUAL TOTALS * ANA ANP *Thru APRIL November December January February NOTE: Figures provided by NATO-ISAF and differ from those published in a January 29 report released by the U.S. Department of Defense. This report estimated 332 ANA fatalities and 692 ANP fatalities for 27, with 28 figures shown only through 28. 9

10 FIGURE 1.1 Estimated Order of Battle Map for U.S. and NATO-ISAF Troops AS OF: JULY 28 NOTE: Map produced and provided by Christopher Radin of The Long War Journal ( ) Estimates based on open source data. FIGURE 1.11 American Troops Deployed To Afghanistan by Mission 12 Operation Enduring NATO International Security Month Freedom (OEF) Assistance Force (ISAF) TOTAL U.S. Troops in Afghanistan September 28 19, 15, 34, January 29 19, 18, 37, May 17,67 25,51 43,18 NOTE: U.S. troop levels depicted for ISAF mission differ from those given on the following page. This is primarily due to discrepancies in figures commonly reported by Western media outlets and those provided on the NATO-ISAF website. One explanation for this may be that the data n the NATO-ISAF website is a snapshot depiction and may count overlapping rotations. 1

11 FIGURE 1.12 Troops Committed to NATO s International Security Assistance Forces (ISAF) By Country 13 AS OF: 3, 29 1Turkey recognizes the Republic of Macedonia with its constitutional name 2 Snapshot figure that includes overlapping rotations. FIGURE 1.13 Total NATO-ISAF Manpower by Regional Command (RC), Since , 25, 2, 15, CAPITAL EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH 1, 5, Oct-6 Nov-6 Dec-6 Jan-7 Feb-7 Mar-7 Apr-7 May-7 Jun-7 Jul-7 Aug-7 Sep-7 Oct-7 Nov-7 Dec-7 Jan-8 Feb-8 11 Mar-8 Apr-8 May-8 Jun-8 Jul-8 Aug-8 Sep-8 Oct-8 Nov-8 Dec-8 Jan-9 Feb-9 Mar-9 Apr-9 NOTE ON THIS GRAPH: Data points represent months for which a precise estimate is available. As the figures for a given month provide a snapshot assessment, they should be considered approximations. Figures do not reflect U.S. troops that are part of Operation Enduring Freedom.

12 FIGURE 1.14 Size of Afghan Security Forces on Duty 15 Month Ministry of Defense Ministry of Interior Total Afghan Forces Forces Security Forces 28 57,8 79,91 137, , 79,91 147, ,78 79,91 162,69 FIGURE 1.15 Annual Growth of Afghan National Army (ANA), By Number of Troops, 23-Present 16 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, * NOTE: Figures for are as of year end. *29 figures are as of APRIL 29 FIGURE 1.16 Annual Recruitment Figures for Afghan National Army (ANA) 17 YEAR* RECRUITS , , , , ,135 -August 28 18,153 *Years run from through the following February of respective periods. NOTE: As of 28, Year-to-Date re-enlistment is 5% for soldiers and 56% for non-commissioned officers. 12

13 FIGURE 1.16.A Capability Milestone (CM) Assessment of Afghan National Army (ANA) Units, By Month since June June 26 August Septemeber November December January 27 February May June August Septemeber November December January 28 February May June August Septemeber November December NOTE ON THIS GRAPH: Number of units and headquarters based on an end goal of 8, personnel, 7, of whom are projected to be operational by the end of 28 with the remainder operational by the end of 29. CM levels are rated on a scale from 1-4 (definitions below). CM 1: capable of operating independently CM 2: capable of planning, executing, and sustaining counterinsurgency operations at the battalion level with international support CM 3: partially capable of conducting counterinsurgency operations at the company level with support from international forces CM 4: formed but not yet capable of conducting primary operational missions N/A: Not yet formed or not reporting FIGURE 1.17 Detailed Breakdown of Afghan Ministry of Interior Forces 19 Number Authorized Number Assigned Percent Assigned 6,15 5, Ministry of Interior Headquarters Uniformed Police 44,319 42, Border Police 17,97 12, Auxiliary Police 9,318 N/A* Civil Order Police 5,365 1, Criminal Investigation Division 4,148 2, Counter Narcotics Police 3,777 2,265 6 Customs Police 623 N/A* Counter Terrorism Police Standby/Highway Police 2,536 N/A* TOTAL 82, 79,91 97 AS OF: 28 *The auxiliary police, customs police, standby police and highway police are no longer authorized. CM 4 CM 3 CM 2 CM 1 13

14 FIGURE 1.18 Defense Assessment of Afghan National Police (ANP) Capabilities CM 4 CM 3 CM 2 CM February 28 May June August September November December AS OF: December 28 CM 1: capable of operating independently CM 2: capable of planning, executing, and sustaining counterinsurgency operations at the battalion level with international support CM 3: partially capable of conducting counterinsurgency operations at the company level with support from international forces CM 4: formed but not yet capable of conducting primary operational missions N/A: Not yet formed or not reporting FIGURE 1.19 Recruitment Figures for the Various Programs of the Afghan National Police (ANP), Afghan Border Patrol (ABP) 4,795 Afghan Civil Order Police (ANCOP) 1,414 Afghan Uniform Police (AUP) 11,265 ALL ANP RECRUITS 17,474 NOTE: The AUP serve at the regional, provincial and district levels and carry out local day-to-day policing activities. The ABP provide law enforcement at borders and entry points. The ANCOP is a highly skilled, specialized police force that is split into urban and rural units and conducts operations in areas where government control may be weak or where added support is needed for counterinsurgency operations. 14

15 FIGURE 1.2 Number of U.S. and NATO Teams/Personnel Required and Assigned to Train and Mentor Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) 22 U.S. Embedded Training Team (ETT) Personnel for Afghan National Army (ANA) ,391 2, ,62 (44%) 1,138 (51%) ETT Personnel Assigned (%) ETT Personnel Required 5 28 November 28 U.S. Police Mentor Team (PMT) Personnel for Afghan National Police (ANP) 25 2,358 2, PMT Personnel Assigned (%) PMT Personnel Required (39%) 886 (37%) 5 28 November 28 NOTE: Each PMT is comprised of approximately 16 U.S. personnel. 23 1,2 of the 3,4 U.S. Marines deployed to southern Afghanistan during the spring of 28 are assigned to conduct ANP training missions, but only for approximately 7 months, thus they are not included in the Number Assigned column. NATO Operating Mentoring and Liaison Teams (OMLT s) for Afghan National Army (ANA) OMLT's Provided (%) OMLT's Required 42 (41%) 4 31 (44%) 2 28 December 28 NOTE: NATO OMLT teams number between personnel each, depending on the size of the unit with which they are embedded. 15

16 Nations That Have Contributed Full ETT s/omlt s: 24 AS OF: September 27 Canada Germany Poland United States Croatia Italy Spain France Netherlands United Kingdom Nations that have Contributed Personnel for Multinational ETT s/omlt s: Canada France Norway United Kingdom Croatia Germany Slovenia Czech Republic Netherlands Sweden AS OF: September 27 FIGURE 1.21 Number and Nationality of Personnel Devoted To the European Union Police (EUPOL) Mission to Afghanistan 25 POLICE STRENGTH EU CONTRIBUTORS Czech Republic (2) France (1) Lithuania (2) Spain (9) Denmark (12) Germany (31) Netherlands (3) Sweden (4) Estonia (1) Hungary (3) Poland (3) United Kingdom (14) Finland (3) Italy (12) Romania (5) TOTAL EU CONTRIBUTION: 15 AS OF: DECEMBER 16, 28 NON-EU CONTRIBUTORS Canada (8) Croatia (2) Norway (6) TOTAL NON-EU CONTRIBUTION: 16 TOTALS TOTAL POLICE CONTRIBUTION 121 OTHER INTERNATIONAL CIVILIAN EXPERTS 56 LOCAL STAFF 91 TOTAL STAFFING FOR EUPOL MISSION

17 FIGURE 1.22 U.S. Departments of Defense and State Support to Train and Equip the Afghan Army and Police, Fiscal Years (Dollars In Millions) 26 6, 5, 4,884 4, $ (millions) 3, 2,71 ANA ANP 2, 1,737 1,722 1,3 1, , NOTE: FY 28 figures reflect requested funds. Annual totals rounded to the nearest million. TOTAL AID (FY request): ANA $1,273,,; ANP: $6,199,, *Fiscal year 28 includes approximately $1,45 million that has been appropriated (approximately $1,18 million for the ANA and $342 million for the ANP) and approximately $1,378 million that has been requested (approximately $614 million for the ANA and approximately $764 million for the ANP). FIGURE 1.22.A Appropriated U.S. Funding For Afghanistan by Agency, FY 21-FY 29 Bridge 27 $9,. $8,. $7,. $ Millions $6,. $5,. $4,. $3,. DoD State USAID USDA Treasury Other $2,. $1,. $. FY 21 FY 22 FY 23 FY 24 FY 25 FY 26 FY 27 FY 28 FY 29 Bridge DoD $. $12.7 $176.2 $43.9 $1,99.4 $2,231.2 $8,167.8 $3,381.2 $2,272. State $45.9 $351.8 $297.7 $784.6 $1,27.4 $35.7 $34.5 $517.5 $218. USAID $42. $42. $57.9 $456.3 $1,29.5 $1,581.2 $85.9 $1,493.4 $472.5 USDA $14.3 $47.7 $28.4 $39.1 $5.1 $48.1 $149.1 $159.6 $254. Treasury $. $.9 $1. $2. $1. $.2 $. $. $. Other $.4 $25.5 $26.6 $52.1 $147. $136.1 $236.6 $18.7 $

18 FIGURE 1.23 Number of Insurgent Attacks by Month and Type, January 27-Present January 27 February May June August September November December January 28 February May June August September November December January 29 February FIGURE 1.23.A Number of Improvised Explosive Device (IED) Events by Month, 27-Present Surface to Air Fire Indirect Fire IEDs Direct Fire 3 Detonations Turn-Ins ANSF Finds ISAF Finds 2 1 January 27 February May June August September November December January 28 February 18 May June August September November December January 29 February NOTE: IED Events are inclusive of those that detonate as well as those found or turned in. ISAF refers to the NATO-sponsored International Security Assistance Forces and ANSF refers to Afghan National Security Forces.

19 FIGURE 1.24 Comparison of Incidents Carried Out By Taliban/Anti-Government Elements (TB/AGE) By Province, Weeks 1-39 (January thru Late September), 27 And 28 3 REGIOANAL COMMAND/ PROVINCE % CHANGE RC CAPITAL KABUL % RC EAST PARWAN % WARDAK % PANJSHER 1 N/A LOGAR % KAPISA % KHOST % PAKTYA % GHAZNI % PAKTIKA % NANGARHAR % LAGHMAN % NURISTAN % KUNAR % BAMYAN % RC EAST TOTAL 2,186 3,28 39% RC SOUTH KANDAHAR % HELMAND % NIMROZ % URUZGAN % ZABUL % DAI KUNDI % RC SOUTH TOTAL 1,1 1,785 77% RC WEST BADGHIS % HERAT % GHOR % FARAH % RC WEST TOTAL % RC NORTH FARYAB % JAWZJAN % SARI PUL % BALKH % SAMANGAN % KUNDUZ % BAGHLAN % TAKHAR % BADAKSHAN % RC NORTH TOTAL % TOTAL, ALL REGIONS 3,74 5,61 51% 19

20 PRT FIGURE 1.25 U.S. Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) Authorized/On Hand Staffing by Location 31 PROVINCE MILITARY DATE CREATED Authorized On Hand Department of State CIVILIAN USAID U.S. Department of Agriculture Authorized On Hand Authorized On Hand Authorized On Hand RC EAST Asadabad Konar Feb Bagram Parwan/Kapisa Nov Gardez Paktia Feb Ghazni Ghazni Jalalabad Nangrahar Jan Khowst Khowst Mehtar Lam Laghman Kalagush Nuristan Nov Bazarak Panjshir Nov Sharana Paktika Oct RC SOUTH Qalat Zabul RC WEST Farah Farah Sept TOTAL 1,21 1, NOTE ON THIS TABLE: The United States operates 12 out of the 26 PRT s in Afghanistan. All American PRT s are under military command and led by a military officer. FIGURE 1.26 Country Leadership and Location of Non-U.S. PRT s 32 PRT LEAD NATION DATE OF COMMAND DATE CREATED AND PREVIOUS COMMAND NATION (IF DIFFERENT) RC NORTH Konduz Germany November (USA) Mazar-e-Sharif Sweden 26 February 23 (United Kingdom) Feyzabad Germany 24 Pol-e-Khomri Hungary (Netherlands) Meymaneh Norway September (United Kingdom) RC WEST Herat Italy June 25 December 23 (USA) Qala-e-Naw Spain August 25 Chaghcharan Lithuania August 25 RC SOUTH Kandahar Canada August 25 December 23 (USA) Lashkar-Gah United Kingdom May 26 September 24 (USA) Tarin Kowt Netherlands August 26 September 24 (USA) RC EAST Bamyan New Zealand August 23 Wardak Turkey November 26 Logar Czech Republic 28 2

21 FIGURE 1.27 Estimated Number of Afghan Refugees in the Region By Location 33 COUNTRY NUMBER OF REFUGEES Pakistan 2,, Iran 91, Other 9, TOTAL 3,, AS OF: 28 FIGURE 1.28 Afghan Refugees Voluntarily Repatriated by Country, ,6 5. 1, ,2 Returnees Per Year (thousands) 1, Total Number of Returnees (millions) Pakistan Iran Cumulative *. *Through September 28 FIGURE 1.29 Estimate Number of Internally Displaced Persons (IDP s) 35 AS OF: May 28 TOTAL 15, Southern Provinces 11, 21

22 2. GOVERNANCE & RULE OF LAW INDICATORS FIGURE 2.1 Afghanistan Population and Demographic Information 36 TOTAL MALE FEMALE POPULATION (millions) 32.7 (51%) (49%) ETHNICITY Pashtun 13.7 (42%) Tajik 8.8 (27%) Hazara 2.9 (9%) Uzbek 2.9 (9%) Aimak 1.3 (4%) Turkmen 1. (3%) Baloch.7 (2%) Other 1.3 (4%) FIGURE 2.2 Size, Gender, And Ethnic Makeup of Afghanistan s Main Legislative Bodies 37 Wolesi Jirga (House of the People) TOTAL SEATS MEN WOMEN GENDER (74%) 65 (26%) ETHNICITY Pashtun 118 (47%) Tajik 53 (21%) Hazara 3 (12%) Uzbek/Turkmen 25 (1%) Non-Hazara Shi a 11 (4%) Arab 5 (2%) Ismaili 3 (1%) Pashai 2 (<1%) Baluchi 1 (<1%) Nuristani 1 (<1%) NOTE: The Wolesi Jirga consists of directly elected provincial representatives. The number of representatives each of Afghanistan s 34 provinces receives is calculated according to population. The Wolesi Jirga constitutes the first step in passing legislation, with all bills passing with two-thirds majority being forwarded to the Meshrano Jirga (House of Elders) and then the President. The Wolesi Jirga also has final say on the appointment of government ministers and other high-ranking officials. Meshrano Jirga (House of Elders) TOTAL SEATS MEN WOMEN GENDER (75%) 26 (25%) ETHNICITY Pashtun 36 (35%) Tajik 32 (31%) Hazara 16 (16%) Uzbek/Turkmen 8 (8%) Baluchi 3 (3%) Nuristani 3 (3%) Others 4 (3%) NOTE: Two-thirds of the Meshrano Jirga is indirectly elected by the Provincial and District Councils while the remaining third is appointed directly by the President. Provincial Councils (34 total, one for each Province) TOTAL SEATS MEN WOMEN GENDER (7%) 124 (3%) NOTE: Provincial Councils consist of between 9 and 29 directly elected representatives, based on the population of the Province. 22

23 FIGURE 2.3 Where Afghans Choose To Take Different Types of Legal Cases 38 Dispute Over Land 55% 38% 7% Other Property Dispute 4% 43% 17% Commercial Dispute 5% 32% 18% Divorce Pick-pocketing 53% 62% 3% 27% 17% 11% State Court Shura/Jirga Other Community Forum Robbery/Burglary 58% 26% 16% Physical Assault 5% 32% 18% Murder 82% 12% 6% % 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 1% NOTE: Results based on survey of approximately 6,2 Afghans polled in February 27. Answers refer to a hypothetical situation and not actual events. FIGURE 2.4 Highest Level Degree Acquired By Judges Responding To a Random Survey 39 5% 45% 44.% 4% 35% 3% 25% 2% 2.5% 16.1% 15% 11.6% 1% 7.7% 5% % University (Shariat) University (Law) Other University Non University (Madrassa or Equivalent) Non University (Primary/Secondary) NOTE: Results based on a May 26 random survey of 157 judges, of whom 17 work with the Supreme Court, 48 on Provincial Appeals Courts and 92 on Urban or District Primary Courts. Shariat refers to a degree received from an Islamic Law faculty. Madrassas are schools below the university level whose curriculum focuses mostly on traditional Islamic scholarship. FIGURE 2.5 Access to Legal Resources for Judges Responding To a Random Survey 4 ACCESS YES NO Statutes or other governmental regulations 63.7% 36.3% Textbooks on the law 45.2% 54.8% Written decisions of the Supreme Court 17.2% 82.8% Professional support from an experienced mentor 19.1% 8.9% NOTE: Results based on a May 26 random survey of 157 judges, of whom 17 work with the Supreme Court, 48 on Provincial Appeals Courts and 92 on Urban or District Primary Courts 23

24 FIGURE 2.6 Annual Poppy Cultivation in Afghanistan (Hectares) and Percentage of Global Cultivation, % 82% 82% 79% 8% 2 67% 69% 7% 6% % 37% 47% 41% 193 5% 4% Hectares ('s) % Global Cultivation % 27% % 21% 22% 22% 23% 5 16% 19% % % 2% 1% % FIGURE 2.7 Annual Opium Production in Afghanistan (Metric Tons) and Percentage of Global Production, % 1% 93% 92% 93% 8,2 87% 89% 9% 7,7 8% 75% 75% % 42% 61% 51% 52% 48% 3,416 7% 62% 58% 52% 4,565 3,276 2,84 2,693 3,4 3,6 4,2 4,1 6,1 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% Metric Tons % Global Production 2 1,981,97 2,33 2,335 2,248 2% 1 1,57 11% 1% 185 %

25 FIGURE 2.8 Opium Poppy Cultivation Levels in Afghanistan (With Top-Producing Provinces), (Hectares) 43 2, 18, 16, 14, Hectares 12, 1, 8, , 4, 2, All Afghanistan Helmand Farah Kandahar Nangarhar FIGURE 2.9 Snapshot Comparison of Afghanistan s Top Opium-Producing Provinces, Based on Amount of Land Devoted to Cultivation, 24 & 28 Nangarhar 22% Kandahar 9% Uruzgan Nangarhar 6% % Rest of Afghanistan 9% Rest of Afghanistan 42% Farah 1% Uruzgan 8% Kandahar 4% Farah 2% Helmand 22% Helmand 66% 24 (131, total hectares) 28 (157, total hectares) 25

26 FIGURE 2.1 Monthly Farm-Gate Price for Dry Opium since September 24 (Us$/Kg) US$ per Kilogram September 24 November Through DECEMBER 28 January 25 May September November January 26 May September November January 27 May September November January 28 May September November FIGURE 2.11 Afghanistan s Rank in Reporters without Borders Index of Press Freedom, YEAR SCORE RANK NUMBER OF COUNTRIES SURVEYED NOTE ON INDEX OF PRESS FREEDOM TABLE: The Index is based on a questionnaire with 5 criteria for assessing the state of press freedom in each country. It includes every kind of violation directly affecting journalists (such as murders, imprisonment, physical attacks and threats) and news media (censorship, confiscation issues, searches and harassment). In addition to taking into account abuses attributable to the state, those carried out by armed militias, clandestine organizations or pressure groups are also considered. The lower the score attained, the higher the degree of press freedom in that respective country. Although there is no specific information given regarding how the overall score was compiled, the top-rated countries for 27 received an overall score of.75, with the median receiving a score of The overall average score for the 27 Index was

27 FIGURE 2.12 Afghanistan s Rank in Transparency International s Annual Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) 46 YEAR RANK NUMBER OF COUNTRIES SURVEYED (T) NO DATA (T) 159 (T): Indicates years Afghanistan s score tied with one or more other country. NOTE: The CPI is a composite index that draws on 14 expert opinion surveys. It scores countries on a scale from zero to ten, with zero indicating high levels of perceived corruption and ten indicating low levels of perceived corruption. Due to a lack of reliable data, Afghanistan was not included in the CPI survey for the years 26. FIGURE 2.13 Afghanistan s Rank in the Brookings Institution s Index of State Weakness in the Developing World, RANK COUNTRY OVERALL SCORE 1 Somalia.52 2 Afghanistan Democratic Republic of Congo Iraq Burundi 3.21 NOTE: 141 nations were surveyed. Each nation was allocated a score of -1 points for each of 4 broad categories (Economic, Political, Security, and Social Welfare). Overall scores were calculated by taking the average of the 4 scores. The median score (Benin, #71) received a score of 6.36 while the highest score (Slovak Republic, #141) received a score of

28 3. ECONOMIC & QUALITY OF LIFE INDICATORS FIGURE 3.1 Annual Inflation FORECAST FIGURE 3.2 Real GDP (Total, Per Capita and Growth), * 28^ TOTAL ($US billions) PER CAPITA ($US) GROWTH (% change YOY) 15.1% 9.4% 16.4% 6.1% 13.9% 8.6% *Data based partly on estimates. ^IMF forecast FIGURE 3.3 GDP Growth and Sector Contributions to Growth, % Industry Services Agriculture GDP Growth NOTE: Data for 27 are estimated. 28

29 FIGURE 3.3.A Annual Production of Major Agricultural Produce, by Planting Season 's Metric Tons 4 3 Wheat Potatoes Grapes Corn Barley Rice, Milled 2 1 2/1 21/2 22/3 23/4 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 FIGURE 3.3.B Value of Exported Afghan Agricultural Produce, Thousands $US

30 FIGURE 3.4 Breakdown of Afghan Annual Budget (Core vs. External), FY 25/26 thru FY 27/ , , ,957 $ US (millions) ,173 2,445 Core Budget External Budget Total Budget 15 1,321 1,636 1,54 1 1, /26 26/27 27/28 NOTE: The Afghan government has direct control of the Core Budget, while having only limited or no control over the External Budget. FIGURE 3.5 Comparison of Electricity Supply Sources and Capacity: 1979, 22 And YEAR HYDRO (MW) THERMAL IMPORTED OTHER* (MW) TOTAL SUPPLY (MW) (MW) (MW) *Includes diesel, micro-hydro and renewable NOTE: As of 27, it is estimated that only 2% of the population (13% in rural areas) have access to public power on certain days for a limited number of hours. FIGURE 3.6 Estimated Number of Telephone Users in Afghanistan by Year, ,, 6,, 5,, 4,, 3,, 2,, 1,, FIGURE 3.7 Estimated Percentage of Afghans with Access to Water/Sanitation Facilities 56 AS OF: June 28 Access to safe drinking water 23% Access to adequate sanitation 12% 3

31 FIGURE 3.8 Education Metrics 57 Estimated Annual Enrollment in Elementary and Secondary Education, ,, 6,, 5,, 4,, 3,, Girls Boys 2,, 1,, NOTE: It is estimated that in 21 less than 1 million students were enrolled in primary/secondary education, virtually none of them girls. Primary/Secondary Education NUMBER OF SCHOOLS 9,62 1,998 All Girls 1,337 Co-ed 4,325 NUMBER OF TEACHERS 147, ,244 Women ~4, SINCE APRIL 26*: Schools Razed/Burned Down 238 Schools closed due to severe threats 65+ Students and Teachers killed by violence 29 *Thru 29 NOTE: APRIL 29 It is estimated that approximately 5, children in four southern provinces are currently prevented from attending school due to the threat of violence. Literacy Overall 28% Male 36% Female 18% FIGURE 3.9 Poverty Levels, % Population Living Below the Poverty Line* % Population Living Slightly Above the Poverty Line % Population Experiencing Food Poverty^ 42% 2% 45% *Defined as living on a monthly income of US $14/month or less ^Those unable to purchase sufficient food to guarantee world standard minimum food intake of 2,1 calories/day 31

32 FIGURE 3.1 Foreign Aid Pledged, Committed and Disbursed, ($ Millions) 59 DONOR AID DISBURSED AID COMMITTED BUT NOT DISBURSED AID PLEDGED (NOT COMMITTED/DISBURSED) US/USAID 5,22.9 5, ,389.1 Japan/JICA 1, United Kingdom 1, European Commission 1, World Bank ,23.8 Germany Canada Asian Development Bank , Italy Netherlands Norway Sweden Iran ECHO* India Australia UN Agencies 171. Denmark Russian Federation 139. Aga Khan France Saudi Arabia Finland Switzerland China Spain Turkey TOTAL 14, , ,775.6 AS OF: February 28 *ECHO: European Commission Humanitarian Aid Office NOTE: PLEDGED aid is promised but yet to be devoted for a specific purpose, COMMITTED aid has been earmarked for a specific purpose but not yet changed hands and DISBURSED aid has been earmarked and delivered. FIGURE 3.11 Annual Value of Imports and Exports, With Top Trade Partners, ($ Millions) Exports (TOTAL) Pakistan India United States Imports (TOTAL) 1,34 1,68 1,971 3,2 3,633 Pakistan ,172 1,375 United States Germany India Republic of Korea Turkmenistan Japan FIGURE 3.12 Microfinance Clients, Borrowers and Loan Amounts 61 Active Clients Active Borrowers Number of Loans Disbursed Amount of Loans Disbursed ($ millions) Loans Outstanding ($ millions) TOTAL 443,74 375,114 1,155,562 $453.3 $111.3 URBAN 38, ,42 81,472 $327.1 $81.2 RURAL 134, ,72 354,9 $126.2 $3.2 AS OF: May 28

33 FIGURE 3.13 Healthcare Metrics % People Living In Districts Where Basic Package of Health Care Program (BPHC) Is Being Implemented % 25 77% 26 82% NOTE: The BPHC is a program started in 22 by the Ministry of Public Health to provide essential basic healthcare throughout Afghanistan s districts. Life Expectancy Men Women Infant and Children Under-Five Mortality Rates (Per 1, Live Births) Infant Children Under Five % OF AFGHAN CHILDREN RECEIVING VARIOUS VACCINATIONS BCG Vaccine 57% 7% Polio Vaccine 3% 7% NOTE: The BCG is a vaccination to prevent tuberculosis. 33

34 4. PAKISTAN FIGURE 4.1 Comparison of Various Metrics from Pakistan s Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) vs. The Rest of Pakistan 66 PER CAPITA INCOME (ANNUAL, $ US) % POPULATION LIVING BELOW POVERTY LINE FATA REST OF PAKISTAN $25 $5 ~66% 24%^ OVERALL LITERACY RATE 17% 56% Women 3% 32% ^FY 25/26 estimate 67 FIGURE 4.2 Health Metrics for FATA 68 Hospitals to serve population of 3.1 million 41 Doctor-to-Population Ratio 1-to-6,762 FIGURE 4.3 Force Strength of Pakistani Security Forces Who Regularly Operate in FATA 69 Constabulary Forces 23,+ Frontier Corps (FC) ~8, NOTE: The Constabulary Forces operate under the local political agent and are trained to do light policing, guard government facilities and secure public figures. The FC is the primary paramilitary force in FATA, traditionally serving as a border control and counter-smuggling force that is on call for law enforcement duties. It is locally trained and administered, yet reports to Pakistan s Ministry of Interior and has historically been greatly under-resourced. FIGURE 4.3.A U.S. Special Forces (USSAF) Personnel Conducting Counterinsurgency Training To Frontier Corps (FC) Officers 7 PROVINCE FATA Baluchistan Number of USSOF Trainers Number of senior FC Trainees 116 Unknown AS OF: May 29 NOTE: As of November 28 the training is limited in scope and focused on training a select number of senior Frontier Corpsmen who will then become the principal counterinsurgency trainers for the remainder of the force. This training is being conducted at an undisclosed location in northwest Pakistan. 34

35 FIGURE 4.4 Percentage of U.S. Funding Directed towards Various Programs in Pakistan s Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) And Border Region, FY Border Security Program, $187, 3% Devlopment Assistance, $4, 1% Military Efforts, $5,573, 96% NOTE: Total $ shown in $US millions. Percentages based on an approximate expenditure of $5.8 billion. Total aid to Pakistan for this period was approximately $1.5 billion. PAKISTANI PUBLIC OPINION TERROR FREE TOMORROW/NEW AMERICA FOUNDATION SURVEY, (1.36 Pakistanis were surveyed throughout the country from May 25-June 1, 28) FIGURE 4.5 Question: What Is Your Opinion Of Each Country? United States 17% 74% 9% Afghanistan 26% 49% 26% Saudi Arabia 9% 5% 6% Very/Somewhat Favorable Very/Somewhat Unfavorable Refused/Don't Know India 36% 53% 11% United Kingdom 21% 61% 18% Iran 69% 15% 15% NOTE: Not all line items add up to 1% due to rounding % 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 1% 35

36 AFGHANISTAN: WHERE THINGS STAND 73 ABC News/BBC/ARD Poll, February 29 (1,534 Afghan adults from throughout the country were interviewed) Previous surveys depicted took place 24, September 25, September 26 and November 27 FIGURE 5.1 Question: Generally Speaking, Do You Think Things in Afghanistan Today Are Going In the Right Direction, or Do You Think Things Are Going In The Wrong Direction? (24, 25, 26, 27 & 29) 9% 5. POLLING & PUBLIC OPINION 8% 77% 7% 6% 64% 55% 54% 5% 4% 4% Right direction Wrong direction 38% 3% 2% 22% 24% 1% 11% 6% % Surveys Released: 24, September 25, September 26, November 27 and February 29, Respectively FIGURE 5.2 Performance Ratings for Various Entities* 9% 83% 8% 8% 7% 6% 68% 57% 67% 63% 59% 63% 52% 5% 4% 43% 48% Hamid Karzai Afghan Government U.S. in Afghanistan 3% 32% 2% 1% % *% of respondents who answered Excellent or Good to the Question: How would you rate the work of? 36

37 FIGURE 5.3 Question: Is Your Opinion of the Taliban Very Favorable, Somewhat Favorable, Somewhat Unfavorable Or Very Unfavorable? 9% 8% 76% 74% 79% 7% 69% 6% 5% 4% % 2% 1% % 15% 15% 13% 12% 1% 8% 6% 3% 2% 3% 3% 4% 4% 2% 1% 2% Very favorable Somewhat favorable Somewhat unfavorable Very unfavorable No opinion FIGURE 5.4 Question: Who Would You Rather Have Ruling Afghanistan Today? 1% 9% 91% 88% 84% 82% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% % 2% 1% % 1% 6% 6% 3% 4% 4% 5% 6% 4% 1% 2% Current government Taliban Other No opinion 4% 37

38 FIGURE 5.5 Question: Which Of The Following Do You Think Poses The Biggest Danger In Our Country? 41% Taliban 52% 57% 58% 28% Drug Traffickers 2% 23% 13% Local Commanders 9% 9% 22% % 29 United States 4% 8% 8% 1% Current Afghan government 2% 3% 1% 1% % 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% FIGURE 5.6 Question: How Much of A Problem Is the Issue of Corruption among Government Officials or the Police in this Area? 7% 63% 6% 55% 5% 45% 4% 3% 27% % 23% 21% 1% 11% 1% 8% 9% 11% 3% 2% 6% 4% % Big problem Moderate problem Small problem Not a problem No opinion 38

39 AFGHANISTAN IN 28: A SURVEY OF THE AFGHAN PEOPLE 74 Asia Foundation, 28 (6,593 Afghan adults from throughout the country were interviewed) FIGURE 5.6 Question: Generally Speaking, Do You Think Things in Afghanistan Today Are Going In the Right Direction, or Do You Think Things Are Going In The Wrong Direction? (26, 27 & 28) 6% 5% 44% 42% 4% 38% 3% 21% 24% 32% 29% 25% 23% % 1% % Right Direction Wrong Direction Some in right, some in wrong direction Surveys Released: September 26, September 27, And 28, Respectively FIGURE 5.7 Question: Why Do You Say Things Are Moving In The Right Direction? (Comparison with 26 & 27) 5% 4% 39% 39% 3% 31% 34% 29% 32% 2% 16% 21% 21% 16% 19% 19% % 11% 9% 9% 9% 9% 3% % Good Security Peace/End of the War Freedom/Free Speech Reconstruction/Rebuilding Schools for Girls have Opened Good Government Surveys Released: September 26 And September 27, And 28, Respectively 39

40 FIGURE 5.8 Question: Why Do You Say Things Are Moving In The Wrong Direction? (Comparison with 26 & 27) 6% 5% 5% 48% 4% 3% 27% % 22% 2% 1% 6% 13% 19% 12% 17% 15% 15% 15% 12% 1% 15% 9% % % 1% % Insecurity Corruption Bad economy Unemployment Bad government High Prices Administrative Corruption 2% Surveys Released: September 26 and September 27, and 28, Respectively FIGURE 5.9 Question: What Is The Biggest Problem In Your Local Area? (Comparison with 26 & 27) 4% 35% 35% 3% 25% 26% 28% 25% 27% 3% 2% 19% 22% 21% 17% 21% 19% 18% % 15% 14% 13% 15% 15% 14% 14% 14% 1% 8% 7% 5% 1% % Unemployment Electricity Water Insecurity High Prices Healthcare Education Roads Surveys Released: September 26 and September 27, and 28, Respectively 4

41 FIGURE 5.1 Present Condition of Various Infrastructure in Localities, 27 & 28 INFRASTRUCTURE VERY/QUITE GOOD (%) QUITE/VERY BAD (%) Availability of clean drinking water Availability of water for irrigation Availability of jobs Supply of electricity Security situation Availability of medical care Availability of education for children Freedom of movement Survey Released: September 27 and 28, Respectively FIGURE 5.11 Public Feelings towards the Performance of Central Government in Specific Aspects of Its Work, 27 & 28 ASPECT OF WORK VERY/QUITE GOOD JOB (%) SOMEWHAT/VERY BAD JOB (%) Education Healthcare system Creating job opportunities Maintaining relations with neighboring countries Reviving/developing the economy Fighting corruption Survey Released: September 27 and 28, Respectively FIGURE 5.12 Question: Would You Say That Today Your Family Is More Prosperous, Less Prosperous or About as Prosperous as Under The Taliban Government? (26, 27 & 28) 6% 54% 5% 49% 4% 39% 36% 3% 26% 28% % 13% 14% 16% 1% 7% 8% 7% % More Prosperous Less Prosperous About as Prosperous Absent During Taliban Rule Survey Released: September 26 and September 27, and 28, Respectively 41

42 FIGURE 5.13 Public s Agreement and Disagreement towards Various Statements about the Afghan National Army (ANA) And Afghan National Police (ANP), 27 & 28 STATEMENT Strongly/Somewhat Agree (%) Strongly/Somewhat Disagree (%) Is honest and fair with the Afghan people: ANA ANP Is unprofessional and poorly trained: ANA ANP Needs the support of foreign troops and cannot operate by itself: ANA ANP Helps improve the security: ANA ANP Survey Released: September 27 and 28, Respectively FIGURE 5.14 Question: How Confident Are You That The Afghan Government On Its Own Will Be Able To Conduct Free And Fair Elections? (27 & 28) 6% 52% 5% 49% 4% 3% % 2% 19% 1% 1% 8% 12% 1% 1% 7% % Very Confident Somewhat Confident Somewhat Not Confident Not Confident At All Refused/Don't Know Survey Released: September 27 and 28, Respectively FIGURE 5.15 Public s Agreement or Disagreement with Various Statements about Democracy and Governance STATEMENT Strongly/Somewhat Agree (%) Strongly/Somewhat Disagree (%) Democracy may have its problems, but it is better than any other form of government Despite our differences, as Afghans we have many values that unite us Politicians seek power for their own benefit and don t worry about helping people Survey Released: September 27 42

43 FIGURE 5.16 Percentage of People Who Strongly/Somewhat Agree With Respect To Various Statements Related to the State Court and Jirgas/Shuras, 27 & 28 STATEMENT State Court (%) Jirgas/Shuras (%) They are accessible to me They are fair and trusted They follow local norms and values of our people They are effective at delivering justice They resolve cases timely and properly Survey Released: September 27 and 28, Respectively FIGURE 5.17 Question: Do You Own Any of the Following Here in Your Household in Functioning Order? (27 & 28) 1% 9% 88% 84% 8% 7% 6% 58% 5% 4% 51% 42% 4% 37% 38% % 3% 25% 2% 1% % Radio Bicycle Mobile phone TV set Motorcycle Fixed phone line 3% 2% Survey Released: September 27 and 28, Respectively FIGURE 5.18 Question: Which Is The Main Source From Where You Normally Get Information About What Is Happening In The Country? (27 & 28) 7% 64% 61% 6% 57% 57% 54% 51% 5% 4% 3% 26% 28% 23% 27% 28% Radio TV Friends/Family/Neighbors 21% 2% 1% 14% 16% 16% 11% 12% 5% % All Rural Urban All Rural Urban Survey Released: September 27 and 28, Respectively 43

44 AFGHANISTAN: PUBLIC OPINION TRENDS AND STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS 75 Charney Research (Multiple Surveys Conducted from 24- November 27, each with 8-2,4 Afghan respondents) FIGURE 5.19 Opinion on the Direction of the Country 9% 8% 77% 7% 6% 64% 62% 5% 55% 51% 54% 4% 44% 42% Right Direction Wrong Direction 3% 28% 2% 21% 22% 24% 24% 24% 1% 11% 6% % Mar 4 Oct 5 Jun 6 Oct 6 Nov 6 Jun 7 Sep 7 Nov 7 FIGURE 5.2 Question: How Would You Rate The Work Of The United States In Afghanistan? 8% 7% 68% 6% 57% 5% 52% 4% 42% 42% Excellent/Good Fair/Poor 3% 3% 2% 1% %