The industrial competitiveness of Italian manufacturing

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1 Milan, 27 January 2015 Where do we stand? Global perspectives on the Industrial Competitiveness of Italian manufacturing International Conference The industrial competitiveness of Italian manufacturing A comparison between the UNIDO s Competitive Industrial Performance Index, the WEF and the IMD rankings Antonio Andreoni SOAS Economics Department, University of London Institute for Manufacturing, University of Cambridge

2 International benchmarking of Industrial competitiveness: diffusion and impact Growing interest for Benchmarking tools Competitiveness indexes (both performances and drivers) among policy makers, manufacturing companies and financial markets Impact on: Policy debate and targeting Companies location investment Financial markets

3 International benchmarking of Industrial competitiveness: variety Trade based indexes and economic complexity analysis International Trade Centre UNCTAD/WTO (Trade Performance Index) OECD (TiVA Methodology and Analysis) + Edison Foundation (Fortis Corradini Index) + Harvard University et al. (Economic Complexity Index and Analysis) Approaches focused on National Competitiveness Benchmarking World Economic Forum (Global Competitiveness Index) EU Commission (European Competitiveness Index and Analysis) + IMD Business School (World Competitiveness Scoreboard) Approaches focused on Industrial Competitiveness Benchmarking UNIDO (Competitive Industrial Performance Index) Deloitte and US Competitiveness Council (Global Manufacturing Competitiveness Index)

4 The Italian manufacturing puzzle UNIDO 2012 IMD 2014 WEF 2014 EU WEF 2014 (EU28) Deloitte/USCC 2013 Germany (1) USA (1) Switzerland (1) Finland (1) China (1) Japan (2) Switzerland (2) Singapore (2) Sweden (2) Germany (2) USA (3) Singapore (3) USA (3) Netherlands (3) USA (3) Netherlands (8) Philippines (42) Turkey (45) Lithuania (17) Russia (28) Ireland (9) Portugal (43) Oman (46) Czech Rep (18) Romania (29) Belgium (10) India (44) Malta (47) Latvia (19) UAE (30) Taiwan (11) Slovak Rep (45) Panama (48) Cyprus (20) Colombia (31) Italy (12) Italy (46) Italy (49) Italy (21) Italy (32) France (13) Romania (47) Kazakhstan (50) Poland (22) Spain (33) UK (14) Hungary (48) Costa Rica (51) Slovak Rep (23) Saudi Arabia (34) Austria (15) Ukraine (49) Philippines (52) Croatia (24) Portugal (35) Sweden (16) Peru (50) Russian Fed (53) Hungary (25) Egypt (36)

5 Countries movements across rankings (>5 positions) UNIDO Country name WEF Ranking Diff IMD Ranking Diff Ranking Diff 2011 (Top 25= 83.43% WMVA) 2012 UNIDO WEF 2012 UNIDO IMD WEF IMD 1 Japan Germany United States of America Republic of Korea China, Taiwan Province Singapore China Switzerland Belgium France Italy Netherlands Sweden United Kingdom Ireland Austria Canada Finland Spain Czech Republic Malaysia Mexico Thailand Denmark Poland

6 International benchmarking: comparative mapping of methodologies Drivers + Performance Performance Trade based indexes & analyses Industrial & trade composite index Industrial Competitiveness (revealed strengths) National Competitiveness (qualities)

7 The Industrial competitiveness of IT IMD World Competitiveness Scoreboard 60 Countries 1 Composite 4 Sub composites (331 criteria in total)

8 The Industrial competitiveness of IT IMD & Sub composites Ranking Composite index + 4 Sub composites Declining competitiveness Competitiveness Germany Competitiveness France Competitiveness UK Competitiveness Italy Economic performance Government efficiency Business efficiency Infrastructure

9 The Industrial competitiveness of IT World Economic Forum 20% 50% 30% 49!!!

10 The Industrial competitiveness of IT World Economic Forum: < 38!!! > 100!!!

11 The Industrial competitiveness of IT European Competitiveness Index EU WEF

12 The UNIDO Competitive Industrial Performance Index (CIP Index) 1. Manufacturing industries are the main drivers of economic development and countries competitiveness Industrialised economies Emerging industrial economies Least developed countries Other developing countries 2. Separation between structural and institutional variables: varieties of capitalism, beyond a fits for all institutional model of national competitiveness

13 The UNIDO Competitive Industrial Performance Index (CIP Index) 3. Focus on performances rather than drivers 4. Focus on quantitative data, transparency and modularity 5. Focus on mediumlong term structural trajectories

14 12 The UNIDO Competitive Industrial Performance Index (CIP Index) World150

15 The UNIDO Competitive Industrial Performance Index (CIP Index) Italy is the: 12 th most competitive industrial country in the world 2 nd most competitive industrial country among EU major economies (above France and UK and only below Germany) Italy was the: 4 th most competitive industrial country in the world from 1990 until 2005 Italy hit harder, still resilient: Lost 8 positions between (Vs France, 7; Vs UK 6)

16 World Impact and EU comparators in th most competitive industrial country with respect to its Shares in World Manufactures Trade (3.791 %) vs Germany (10.219%), UK (2.989%), France (4.189%) 8th most competitive industrial country with respect to its Shares in World Manufactures Value Added (2.325%) vs Germany (5.317%), UK (2.691%), France (2.494%)

17 EU main comparator Same structural pattern Persistent structural differences Technological specialisation Value capture dynamics in SVCs

18 A two speed world: Structural transformations in the global manufacturing landscape Average Annual MVA growth rate

19 The manufacturing loss and the new forms of industrial polarisation New forms of industrial polarisation across regions in the world (China and the rest) between nations in the same regions (Europe) within countries (from North South to Export oriented vs Inward oriented companies among the Northern regions)

20 Where do we stand?... Where should Italy go? Competitiveness is in the eye of the beholder Beyond simplistic analyses Composite puzzle Need for triangulation and multi level analyses Need for a new open debate about regional and national industrial policies in Italy and crossregional industrial policies in Europe No industrial policy, is the worst type of industrial policy (especially when the other countries are implementing technology, manufacturing and industrial policies).

21 Sources Andreoni, A. and Upadhyaya, S. (2014) Growth and distribution pattern of the world manufacturing value added: A statistical profile, UNIDO Working paper series 2/14. IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook (2014) UNIDO (2013) Industrial Competitiveness Report UNIDO WEF (2014) The Future of Manufacturing World Economic Forum (2014) The World Competitiveness Report O Sullivan, E., Andreoni, A., Lopez Gomez, G. and Gregory, M. (2013) What is New in the New Industrial Policy? A Manufacturing System Perspective, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 29(2), Andreoni, A. (forthcoming 2015) Varieties of Industrial Policy: Models, Packages and Transformation Cycles, IPD/JICA Task Force on Industrial Policy and Transformation, Jordan, June 5 6. The paper was invited for publication in a volume jointly edited by the Task Force Chairs Joseph Stiglitz, Jose Antonio Ocampo and Akbar Noman. In preparation for Columbia University Press.

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