Contents. Foreword...iii. List of Abbreviations...x
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1 v Foreword...iii List of Abbreviations...x Overview: East Asia in Terrorism and Weapons of Mass Destruction, and the Response of East Asia The Nuclear Issue of North Korea...6 Chapter 1: North Korea s Second Nuclear Diplomacy Rising Risks and Expectations The Development of Second Nuclear Diplomacy...12 (1) Playing with the Possession of Nuclear Weapons...12 (2) Assuring Regime Survival: North Korea s Political Objectives Structural Setting of the Second Nuclear Diplomacy...15 (1) Strengthened Diplomatic Cards: Nuclear and Missile Development...15 (2) North Korea s Weaknesses: Deteriorating Military Balance, Diplomatic Encirclement, and Socioeconomic Hardships The Nuclear Question and Alliance Relationships...20 (1) Revitalized U.S.-Japan Alliance and Strained U.S.-ROK Alliance...20 (2) Alliance Redefined, Alliance Being Redefined Solving the Nuclear Question...23 (1) Multilateral Talks: A New Approach...23 (2) Prospects for Settlement...27 Chapter 2: Maritime Security Cooperation in Asia Ocean Governance and Ocean-peace Keeping Ocean Governance in Asia...33 (1) Sea-lanes in the Asia-Pacific Region...33 (2) The Conservation and Management of Marine Resources, and the Preservation of the Marine Environment...39
2 vi (3) The Importance of Ocean Governance Maritime Security Cooperation and the Ocean-peace Keeping Concept...45 (1) The Roles of the Marine Police and the Navy...45 (2) Ocean-peace Keeping: The Conceptual Framework...47 (3) Ocean-peace Keeping: The Implementation...50 Chapter 3: The Korean Peninsula Emerging Prospects for Change South Korea s Policy of Self-Reliant National Defense...58 (1) History of Self-Reliant National Defense...58 (2) Background of the Reemergence of Self-Reliant National Defense...59 (3) Main Features of Self-Reliant National Defense...62 (4) A Rugged Path to Self-Reliant National Defense The Policy for Peace and Prosperity: Expanding the Scope of the North Korea Policy...67 (1) Two Axes of South Korea s Policy toward North Korea...67 (2) Engagement Policy Stays on Track...69 (3) A New Dimension of South Korea s Policy Toward the North Prospects for North Korea s Economic Reform...75 (1) Implementing Economic Reform...75 (2) Background to Reform...76 (3) Opportunities and Challenges...77 Chapter 4: China In Search of New Thinking Communist Party Rule Undergoes a Process of Change...84 (1) A Generation Change at the Top...84 (2) More Rigorous Supervision of the Exercise of Power...90 (3) Toward Inner-party Democracy Foreign Policy In pursuit of Strategic Interests...96 (1) China s Policy Objectives Regarding the North Korean Problem...96 (2) Seeking Closer Sino-Japan Relations...103
3 vii 3. China s Defense Modernization after the Use of Force against Iraq (1) Use of Force against Iraq and Its Impact on the Modernization of the PLA (2) Force Reduction and Streamlining of Military Organization (3) Pursuing Personnel Modernization in the PLA (4) Military Balance across the Taiwan Strait Chapter 5: Southeast Asia From Regional Cooperation to Regional Integration Widening Terrorist Networks (1) Investigations into the Terrorist Bombing of Bali (2) The JI s Expanding Reach in the Region Democratization in Retreat? (1) Indonesia: Need to Deal with Structural Problems (2) The Philippines: Politicization of the Military (3) Thailand: Autocratic Tendencies of the Thaksin Government (4) Myanmar: Re-detention of Aung San Suu Kyi ASEAN Toward the Creation of a Community (1) Stressing the Importance of Political and Economic Cooperation (2) ASEAN Concord II (3) Active Approach by China and India to ASEAN Arms Procurement Increases (1) Constraints on Arms Procurement (2) Defense Modernization in ASEAN Chapter 6: Russia From Stability to Growth The Putin Government s Accomplishments and Challenges (1) Assessing Russia s Stability and Its Political and Economic Transition (2) Three National Tasks for Russia in the Years to (3) An Energy Strategy for Economic Recovery...159
4 viii 2. Post-Iraq Cooperation with the United States and Russia s East Asian Policy (1) U.S.-Russia Relations after the U.S. Use of Force against Iraq (2) Putin s Diplomacy and East Asia (3) The Development of Oil Fields in East Siberia and the Construction of Oil Pipelines A New Stage of Military Reform: From Troop Cuts to Modernization (1) Increasing Defense Expenditure and Signs of Recovery in Military Activities (2) The End of the Force Reduction Process and Modernization of the Armed Forces (3) Diversifying Threats and the Russian Military s Perception of Its Strategic Environment Chapter 7: The United States American Internationalism and Unilateralism The United States and the International Community after the Use of Force against Iraqi: Dispute over Empire and International Community (1) The U.S. Perception of Security Threats, WMD and Terrorism (2) American Internationalism: The Foundation of Prosperity and Its Limits The Security Policy of the United States and Its Instruments (1) U.S. Security and International Cooperation (2) A New Nuclear Posture and Defense Transformation: Military Strategy of the Bush Administration Alliance with East Asia: Regional Assets in a World Strategy (1) Changing Security Environment and Alliances (2) Forward Deployment within the Framework of Cooperation
5 ix with Asia-Pacific Region Chapter 8: Japan National Emergency Legislation, Reconstruction Assistance in Iraq, and Countering the Threat of WMD Legislation Regarding Response to Armed Attacks, and Reconstruction Assistance in Iraq (1) Enactment of the Three Laws Regarding Response to Armed Attacks (2) Expansion of the Roles of the Self-Defense Forces (3) September 11 and Japan s Efforts (4) The Enactment of the Law Concerning Special Measures on Humanitarian and Reconstruction Assistance in Iraq (5) Japan and Future of International Security Japan s Security Policy vis-à-vis WMD and Ballistic Missiles (1) Arms Control, Disarmament and Nonproliferation Efforts (2) Retaliatory Deterrence (3) Missile Defense (4) An Attack on Missile Launching Sites...245
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