Help Wanted in New Zealand: The ANZ Bank Job Advertisement Series

Transcription

1 UNIVERSITY OF WAIKATO Hamilon New Zealand Help Waned in New Zealand: The ANZ Bank Job Adverisemen Series Brian Silversone Deparmen of Economics Working Paper in Economics 3/4 November 4 Paper Presened o he Elevenh Conference on Labour, Employmen and Work Vicoria Universiy of Wellingon November 4 Brian Silversone Economics Deparmen Universiy of Waikao Privae Bag 315 Hamilon, New Zealand Tel: +64 (7) Fax: +64 (7) silver@waikao.ac.nz hp://

2 Absrac The ANZ Bank publishes a monhly coun of he number of job adverisemens appearing in New Zealand newspapers and, more recenly, inerne sies. I is New Zealand s de faco vacancy or help-waned series. Apar from is role in economic commenaries, here is very lile published research using his daa. This paper is a preliminary aemp o remedy his omission. I covers descripive aspecs of he ANZ job ads series including he vacancy rae, he hiring rae, regional characerisics and proxy vacancy series. This is followed by an ouline of he vacancy-unemploymen (Beveridge curve) and hiring frameworks and some iniial economeric work. Overall, he paper highlighs he imporance of he vacancy rae and he hiring rae in assessing labour marke condiions in New Zealand. Keywords Help waned; Beveridge curve; maching funcion; New Zealand JEL Classificaion J41; J63; J64, Acknowledgemens I am graeful o he ANZ Banking Group (and o is Wellingon-based Economics Deparmen in paricular) for making he Bank s monhly unadjused job ads daa available for his projec. I am also graeful o he NZIER and he Deparmen of Labour for daa assisance. The usual disclaimer applies.

3 3 Inroducion In 199, he ANZ Banking Group began a monhly coun of job adverisemens appearing in he main New Zealand newspapers. The iniial coverage of Auckland, Wellingon and Chrischurch newspapers was exended o four oher regions (Waikao, Hawke s Bay, Manawau and Oago) in Since, inerne job ads from several major sies have also been published. Alhough he ANZ help-waned series is jus a raw coun - muliple jobs wihin one adverisemen coun as one job, repeaed ads wihin he same monh are included and here is no separaion of regional and naional job ads wihin each newspaper - he series is ineresing for several reasons. Firs, i is monhly daa on a real variable, in his case anicipaed hiring or demand for labour. Such daa are relaively scarce in New Zealand. Secondly, i is published promply and usually wihin a fornigh of he previous monh. Thirdly, i is a useful indicaor of economic aciviy in general and labour marke condiions in paricular. Fourhly, i represens acual expendiure by firms willing o commi hemselves o he relaively cosly process of preparing adverisemens, conducing inerviews, raining, menoring and associaed coss. Finally, as successful hiring requires boh vacancies and applicans, he job ads series is a reminder ha vacancy raes should be considered alongside employmen, unemploymen and paricipaion raes. In he absence currenly of any official New Zealand vacancy saisics, he ANZ job ads series has become he de faco New Zealand vacancy series. An official vacancy series was disconinued in 1981, while is successor ceased in Anoher official series was disconinued in 199. As a resul of hese disconinuiies and relaed measuremen issues, some auhors (for example, Chapple 1995 and Hicks and Chin 1984) consruced proxy series for New Zealand vacancies. More recenly, following a review of vacancy survey models and user needs, he Deparmen of Labour (3) published a monhly coun of New Zealand job adverisemens by occupaion. This micro-focused series should complemen he macro-focused ANZ series. Apar from is role in economic commenaries, here is very lile published research using he ANZ job ads daa. This paper is an iniial aemp o remedy his omission. The nex secion considers descripive aspecs of he series including is regional characerisics and relaionship o seleced proxy vacancy series. This is followed by an ouline of he vacancy-unemploymen (Beveridge curve) and hiring frameworks and some iniial economeric work. The ANZ Bank Job Ads Series Figure 1 shows he number of economy-wide job adverisemens from 199:1 o 4:3 using quarerly averages of monhly daa. The number of quarerly adverisemens has ranged from 1, (in 1991) o 34, (in 4). The series is asymmerical wih adverisemen recovery periods lasing longer han recessionary periods. Inerne job ads, shown separaely in Figure 1, increased from a quarerly average of around 1,5 (in ) o 13,5 (in 4) - a 3 percen change. Newspaper ads, on he oher hand, increased by jus 1 percen over his same four-year period. Elecronic ads now represen around 3 percen of newspaper ads and rising. The ANZ Bank recognises he difficuly of combining elecronic and paper ads. Work in his paper, however, suggess ha his is a worhwhile ask.

4 Figure 1: Naional Job Ads Number, Quarerly, March Years 4 Figure : Regional Job Ads Seasonally Adjused, Quarerly, March Years 4 35 Newspaper Job Ads (acual and sa) 3 5 Index: 199(1) = 1 Chrischurch Inerne Job Ads (sa) 5 Source: ANZ Bank Job Ads Auckland 5 Wellingon Source: ANZ Bank Job Ads. Table 1 shows a selecion of unweighed descripive saisics for he seven regions and New Zealand-wide from 1994:3 o 4:3. (Inerne adverisemens are excluded). Auckland, Wellingon and Chrischurch newspapers ypically accoun for over 8 percen of job adverisemens. There are regional variaions in boh correlaions wih oal New Zealand adverisemens and in skewness (for example, Auckland is negaively skewed relaive o Chrischurch). Figure shows quarerly help-waned daa, convered o indices, for he hree main ciies (Auckland, Wellingon and Chrischurch) from 199:1 o 4:3. There are clear regional differences in hese ime series. As Auckland ypically comprises 55-6 percen of oal job ads, is index ends o follow he New Zealand-wide index (no shown). Chrischurch s index has been consisenly above he New Zealand-wide oucome, while Wellingon s index has been lower and flaer. Wha could explain he surge in Canerbury job vacancies since 1999? An increase in he proporion of naional adverising in Canerbury newspapers? Perhaps. Higher economic growh in Canerbury? Very likely. According o he Naional Bank s regional aciviy index, annual average growh in Canerbury was half a percenage poin higher han Auckland over he enire period (199-4) and one percenage poin higher han Wellingon. ANZ Job Ads Compared o Proxy Series The ANZ job vacancy series is help-waned daa raher han a rue vacancy series derived in a similar manner o, say, unemploymen daa from a household labour force survey. (Issues associaed wih using help-waned daa as a proxy for acual vacancies are discussed in Abraham 1987 and Zagorsky 1993, 1998). I is useful, hen, o compare he job ads series wih oher vacancy-ype measures. We consider briefly wo NZIER Quarerly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) measures and a gross flows measure from he Household Labour Force Survey. A QSBO quesion asks respondens: Wha single facor, if any, is mos limiing your abiliy o increase your producion? Labour is one of he six answers. (The ohers are sales, maerials, finance, capaciy and oher ). Figure 3 plos he vacancy rae agains he percenage of firms replying ha labour is he single mos limiing facor consraining producion. (The vacancy rae is defined in his paper, unless oherwise saed, as he raio of newspaper and inerne job ads combined o he labour force). The wo series conform relaively well apar, perhaps, and 3, when he labour consrain inensified relaive o he vacancy rae. The correlaion of he consrain wih he vacancy rae (including and excluding inerne ads) is.78 and.59, respecively. Table 1: ANZ Bank Job Ads Series Descripive Saisics, Acual, Quarerly Akl Wel CCh Waik HBay Man Oago NZ Mean 16,743 3,571 4,349, ,15 9,75 Raio of Mean o NZ 56% 1% 15% 8% 3% % 4% 1% Correlaion wih NZ Skewness Noe: Akl = Auckland, Wel = Wellingon, CCh = Chrischurch, Waik = Waikao, Man = Manawau. Source: ANZ Bank Job Ads.

5 5 Figure 3: Labour Consrain and Vacancy Rae Quarerly, Seasonally Adjused, March Years, Percen.8 5 Figure 4: Finding Skilled Labour and Vacancy Rae Quarerly, March Years, Percen 6 Difficuly Finding Skilled Labour (lhs) Vacancy Rae (rhs) Labour Consrain (lhs) Vacancy Rae (rhs) Sources: ANZ Bank (vacancies) and NZIER (labour) Sources: ANZ Bank (vacancies) and NZIER (labour). A second QSBO quesion asks respondens: Is finding he skilled or specialis saff you wan oday compared o hree monhs ago harder, he same or easier?. One would expec a higher vacancy rae o be associaed wih greaer difficuly in finding labour. This is confirmed in Figure 4 which plos he vacancy rae agains he QSBO ne balance of responses (ha is, he percenage replying harder less he percenage replying easier ). The correlaions of finding skilled labour wih he vacancy rae (wih and wihou inerne ads) are.89 and.8, respecively. Unlike he relaionship in Figure 3, he pos- oucomes show somewha greaer conformiy. Finally, in his proxy vacancy discussion, consider he dynamic process illusraed in Figure 5 involving flows o and from vacancies. Job creaion and quis are inflows ino he sock of vacancies while maching or hiring is he ouflow. The Household Labour Force Survey, hrough is abiliy o mach respondens in adjacen surveys, provides sock-flow daa in he spiri of Figure 5. Figure 6 illusraes his daa for he March o June quarer 4. (See Silversone 1 and Silversone and Gorbey 1995 for furher deails on labour marke gross flows in New Zealand). Figure 5: The Beveridge Curve and Hiring Frameworks Churning Job Loss Quis Job Creaion No in he Labour Force Unemployed Beveridge Curve Vacancies Maching or Hiring Source: Bleakley and Furher (1997, p.7) slighly modified. From Figure 6, suppose he ne flows beween unemploymen and employmen (ha is, UE minus EU) are he only sources of new hiring and, herefore, vacancies filled. Figure 7 shows he relaionship beween he vacancy rae and he ne hiring rae where he ne hiring rae (NHR) is defined as: UE EU NHR = 1 (1) U 1 UE is he gross flow of labour from unemploymen o employmen, EU is he flow from employmen o unemploymen and U -1 is oal unemploymen in he previous quarer. Figure 7 shows a relaively srong relaionship beween he series wih heir upper and lower urning poins ypically coinciding. The correlaions of he hiring rae wih he vacancy rae (wih and wihou inerne ads) are.86 and.81, respecively.

6 6 Figure 6. Gross Labour Marke Flows in New Zealand Males and Females, All Ages, Number, March o June 4 Employmen (E) 1,47,6 Quis, Layoffs & Redundancies (EU) 16,8 New Hires & Recalls (UE) 1,8 Unemploymen (U) 61,7 Reiremens & Wihdrawals (EN) 65, Reiremens & Wihdrawals (UN) 3,9 Enrans & Re-enrans (NE) 58, Non-paricipaion (N) 77,6 Enrans & Re-enrans (NU) 6,1 Sources: Saisics New Zealand and Silversone (1995, 1) Figure 7: Hiring and Vacancy Raes March Years, Percen Hiring Rae (lhs) Vacancy Rae (rhs) -. Sources: ANZ Bank (vacancies) and Sas NZ (hiring). Analyical Framework Our discussion his far has been mainly descripive raher han analyical. Vacancy daa feaure prominenly in a leas wo analyical frameworks: saic Beveridge curve analysis (he sudy of he equilibrium or sock relaionship beween vacancies and unemploymen) and dynamic job hiring or maching analysis. These frameworks are useful from several perspecives. From a policy perspecive, beer employmen and aciviy oucomes could resul from insighs ino he processes by which vacancies are creaed and noified and by how people are mached o jobs. From a forecasing perspecive, he vacancy-unemploymen relaionship is helpful in inerpreing labour marke oucomes (Hall 3). From an academic perspecive, he conribuions of Abraham (1987), Blanchard and Diamond (1989) and Pissarides (1986), among ohers, have susained an acive Beveridge curve research programme. The araciveness of his programme is due subsanially o is underlying heoreical framework - he aggregae maching funcion - for analysing macroeconomic fricions and policy opions. (See Perongolo and Pissarides 1 for a major survey of he exisence and sabiliy of he aggregae maching funcion). Figures 5 and 6 highlighed he fac ha he labour marke is characerised by socks (such as he unemployed and vacancies) and by he flows o and from hese socks. Job losses, quis and ne movemens from no in he labour force are he main inflows ino unemploymen while job creaion and quis generae vacancies. Job-o-job movemens or churning aside, new hiring is he oucome of a search and maching process involving he unemployed and vacan jobs. The dynamics of he search and maching process, and he equilibrium naure of he Beveridge curve, can be illusraed more formally. Perongolo and Pissarides (1, p.39) and Wall and Zoega (, pp.58-59) are good examples of he conemporary approach based on he hiring or maching funcion. Adaping heir approaches slighly, and following he usual pracice of omiing job-o-job movemens, le: H m( wu, ev ) H U, H > () = V where H is he number of jobs maches or hires formed, U he number of unemployed workers looking for work and V he number of vacan jobs. Search inensiy - or he choosiness - of workers and firms is represened by w and e, respecively. The hiring funcion is assumed o be increasing in boh U and V, concave and wih consan reurns o scale. Using a Cobb-Douglas specificaion, and leing A represen search inensiies and oher influences, he hiring funcion (equaion ) becomes:

7 or, in log-linear form: α 1 α H = AU V (3a) ln H = A + α lnu + (1 α) lnv (3b) In equilibrium, he number of separaions from unemploymen (S) equals he number of hires (H). Subsiuing S for H, and normalising by he size of he labour force (L), equaion 3a becomes: 7 rae (excluding inerne ads) remained subsanially unchanged a around 1.6 percen over he same period. This evidence is furher suppor for combining inerne and newspaper ads. Figure 8: Vacancy & Unemploymen Raes Quarerly, March Years, Seasonally Adjused, Percen 11 1 Unemploymen Rae (lhs) 3..8 S L or, in log-linear form: α 1 α U V = A L L (4a) including inerne ads excluding inerne ads ln( s) = A + α ln( u) + (1 α)ln( v) (4b) 5.8 where s is he separaion rae (S/L), u he unemploymen rae (U/L), v he vacancy rae (V/L) and A is he inercep. Wih a fixed separaion rae and inercep, equaion (4b) yields an inverse relaionship - he Beveridge curve - beween he vacancy rae and he unemploymen rae. I could be esimaed as: ln( u ) = a + b ln( v ) + e b < (5) Thus, he UV curve can be inerpreed - analogous o he heory of he firm - as an isoquan, which shows differen combinaions of inpus in order o produce a paricular level of job maches (Chrisl 1994, p.41). The economeric lieraure is dominaed by variaions of he hiring or maching funcion (equaion 3b) and he Beveridge curve (equaion 5). For a convenien summary of he former, see Perongolo and Pissarides 1 and for he laer see Chrisl 199 (as reproduced in Tse e al. ). Before underaking some preliminary New Zealand economeric work on equaions (3b) and (5), we examine some descripive aspecs of he relaionship beween vacancies, unemploymen and aciviy. Figure 8 shows he vacancy and unemploymen raes from 199:1 o 4:3. The vacancy rae (he raio of job ads o he labour force) varies wihin a relaive narrow band from.6 o.4 percen of he labour force wih a mean of around 1.5 percen. On he oher hand, he unemploymen rae (he raio of surveyed unemploymen o he labour force) ranges from 4 o 11 percen wih a mean of 7 percen. The inverse relaion beween he vacancy and unemploymen raes is clearly apparen in Figure 8. This is confirmed by he high correlaion of -.95 when inerne ads are included in he vacancy rae and.9 when hey are excluded. The coincidence of urning poins is also apparen (see, for example, 1991, 1995, 1998 and 1). A furher characerisic is he relaively weak relaionship since beween he vacancy rae (excluding inerne ads) and he unemploymen rae. Whereas he unemploymen rae fell by one hird (from 6 percen o 4 percen) beween and 4, he vacancy 4 Vacancy Rae (rhs) 3. Sources: ANZ Bank (vacancies) and Sas NZ (labour). Figure 9 is a Beveridge curve of he vacancy rae agains he unemploymen rae. (Texbooks, and many empirical sudies, disinguish beween movemens along and shifs of he Beveridge curve o supposedly idenify cyclical and srucural changes, respecively. See, however, he cauions in Bowden 198). There are several impressions from Figure 9. Firs, almos he enire period (199-4) is characerised by couner-clockwise looping. Secondly, he scaer appears o be linear or very slighly convex. The endency owards lineariy could be explained parly by he relaively shor ime series (15 years) and by aggregaion. Thirdly, he Beveridge curve appears o have shifed o he lef since 1. Figure 9: Vacancy & Unemploymen Raes Seasonally Adjused, Sep Years, Percen Vacancy Rae Unemploymen Rae Sources: ANZ Bank (vacancies) and Sas NZ (labour)

8 Do changes in he unemploymen rae leads changes in he vacancy rae or conversely? Impulse response funcions, wih wo lags beween he unemploymen and vacancy raes sugges, marginally, ha vacancies lag he unemploymen rae. This weak finding is no surprising given ha boh variables are endogenous. Finally, Figure 1 illusraes he link beween real GDP growh and vacancy growh. The correlaion is.67. Overall, periods of srong economic growh correspond o periods of srong vacancy growh, and conversely. Figure 1: GDP & Vacancy Growh Raes Quarerly, March Years, Percen Vacancy Growh (rhs) GDP Growh (lhs) Sources: ANZ Bank (vacancies) and Sas NZ (GDP). Esimaion We now underake some iniial economeric work on he Beveridge curve (equaion 5) and he hiring funcion (equaion 3b). Previously published Beveridge curve work using New Zealand daa includes Chapple (1995), Chapple e al. (1996) and Nickell e al. (1). Beveridge Curve Alhough unemploymen and vacancy raes are bounded in he long run, and herefore mean-revering, hey may no be saionary over shorer periods. Before running regressions involving vacancy and unemploymen raes, we should es for uni roos in hese variables. This should deermine wheher OLS regression is appropriae, a leas iniially. Using he augmened Dickey-Fuller (ADF) approach, our preferred equaion for he unemploymen rae (u) is: u = α + βu 1 + δ + ε (6a) and, for he vacancy rae (v), = α + β v + δ + (6b) v ε1 A linear ime rend is represened by and he error erm by ε. The resuls (available on reques from he auhor) indicae ha over he period 199-4, he unemploymen rae has a uni roo a all criical values and is herefore a non-saionary series. The same conclusion is acceped a he one and five percen criical values for he vacancy rae bu no, perhaps, a he 1 percen criical value. A similar conclusion is reached in he more exensive uni roo esing by De Francesco (1999) on Ausralian vacancy and unemploymen daa. Given his uni roo oucome, he Johansen coinegraion es indicaes coinegraion a he five percen level assuming an inercep and a linear deerminisic rend in he coinegraing equaion. This resul allows us o run regressions beween he unemploymen rae and he vacancy rae. Given he somewha marginal naure of he uni roo and coinegraion ess, however, regressions in he differences of he unemploymen and vacancy raes were also explored. The basic Beveridge curve specificaion is: ln( u ) = a b ln( v ) + z + e (7) where u and v are seasonally adjused unemploymen and vacancy raes, respecively, and e is an error erm. Oher poenial influences (for example, mismach and he paricipaion rae) are represened by z. The ordering of he endogenous variables is, on his occasion, from v o u and he daa period is 199:1 o 4:3. Alhough boh log-linear and linear equaions involving jus u and v fied well overall, he residuals show periods of persisen under and over predicion of he unemploymen rae. This oucome suggess, among oher hings, omied variables or shif influences (z). Candidaes include mismach, changes in he paricipaion and labour force growh raes, labour marke churning and urnover, he choosiness of firms and workers, he oupu gap, real wages and profis and ime. For illusraive purposes, equaion (8) repors a resul wih jus one z influence, namely, he paricipaion rae (p). A linear esimaion is preferred slighly o he log-linear specificaion in equaion (7). Brackes enclose -saisics. u = 5.5.3v.64 p R =.94 (8) (11.1) (6.) Equaion (8) has he expeced signs and significance. The sandard error of he regression is.45 percen compared o he mean of he unemploymen rae of 7 percen. Figure 11 is a char of he acual and fied series and he residuals. One would expec o improve on he oucome in equaion (8) wih furher consideraion of oher shif influences and oher specificaions. We now urn briefly o some preliminary economeric insighs from regional daa. Wih he aggregaed daa, here are 59 quarerly observaions beween 199:1 and 4:3. Wih regional cross-secion daa available over he same period from Auckland, Wellingon and Chrischurch newspapers, here are 177 observaions. As a resul, pooled ime series, cross-secion daa offers many regression possibiliies including cross-secion weighing, common and cross-secion specific inerceps and coefficiens.

9 Figure 1: Regional Vacancy and Unemploymen Raes Quarerly, Seasonally Adjused, Percen Auckland Chrischurch Wellingon Vacancy Rae Sources: ANZ Bank (vacancies) and Sas NZ (labour). Unemploymen Rae Figure 11: Beveridge Curve Regression Equaion (8), Quarerly, March Years Residual (pp) Acual and Esimaed (---) Unemploymen Rae (%) -1.5 Sources: ANZ Bank (vacancies) and Sas NZ (GDP). Figure 1 shows scaer chars of he unemploymen raevacancy rae (uv) relaionship for Auckland, Wellingon and Chrischurch. (Inerne ads are excluded). Auckland and Chrischurch are relaively similar whereas Wellingon appears o have no clear macroeconomic relaionship beween vacancies and unemploymen. These observaions are confirmed enaively in Table where, for reasons of space, resuls for an equaion (8) specificaion only are repored. The uv relaionship is significanly inverse for Auckland and Chrischurch bu absen for Wellingon. The paricipaion rae is significan for Wellingon and Chrischurch, bu no for Auckland. Table : Regional Regressions u = a bv p + e Unemploymen Rae (u) a Auckland 13.5 Wellingon 73. Chrischurch 8.5 i i i Vacancy Rae (v) 3. (9.6).17 (.31).14 (4.3) i Paricipaion Rae (p). (.13).97 (6.).9 (3.6) Sources: ANZ Bank (vacancies) and Sas NZ (labour). Hiring Funcion The basic hiring specificaion is: ln( h ) α + e (8) = A + ln( u i ) + (1 α)ln( v i ) where h is he ne hiring rae from unemploymen as defined in equaion (1), u and v are seasonally adjused unemploymen and vacancy raes, respecively, and e is an error erm. The esimaion period is 199:1 o 4:. Equaion (9) illusraes an unresriced oucome (where brackes enclose -saisics) while Figure 13 is a char of he acual and fied series and he residuals. ln h =.61 ln u ln v R =.6 (9) (15.1) (13.1) For an iniial hiring equaion - dealing wih only UE and EU flows and wih no oher variables, such as mismach and demographics - his oucome is promising. The variables are significan and have heir expeced values alhough consan reurns o scale is no apparen. Resricing he coefficiens on u and v o sum o uniy produces some oucomes ye o be explained Figure 13: Hiring Funcion Regression Equaion (9), Quarerly, March Years Residual Log of Acual and Esimaed (---) Hiring Rae Sources: ANZ Bank (vacancies) and Sas NZ (labour)

10 Fuure Research Fuure work could include a more exensive analysis of he ime series properies and regional characerisics of he job ads series, more exensive uni roo and coinegraion analysis, esing for Beveridge curves shifs and increasing reurns and underaking inernaional comparisons. More exensive analysis of he hiring funcion should also be a significan componen of fuure work. Ulimaely, i would be worhwhile deermining he impac of policy and non-policy changes on New Zealand Beveridge curves and hiring funcions. Conclusions This paper has considered some descripive, analyical and empirical aspecs of he ANZ Bank job adverisemen series. The overall purpose has been o renew ineres in he role of boh he vacancy rae and he hiring rae in he assessmen of labour marke condiions. The paper has herefore included insighs from he job ads series iself, regional differences, seleced proxy series and he analyics of he Beveridge curve and hiring funcions. The imporance of inerne ads and heir inegraion wih newspaper adverisemens was also highlighed. The economeric work included some basic uni roo esing and coinegraion and some iniial Beveridge Curve and hiring regressions. We found, among oher hings, ha New Zealand s Beveridge curve (over he period 199-4) could well be linear and ha shif influences and regional differences are likely o maer. The hiring funcion work appears promising. References Abraham, K.G. (1987). Help-Waned Adverising, Job Vacancies, and Unemploymen. Brookings Papers on Economic Aciviy (1) ANZ Banking Group, New Zealand, Economics Deparmen (199-) ANZ Job Ads, monhly. Web: [ Job_Ads]. 1 Chapple, S., Harris, R. and Silversone, B. (1996). Unemploymen. In B. Silversone, A. Bollard and R. Laimore (eds) A Sudy of Economic Reform: The Case of New Zealand. Amserdam: Norh- Holland. Chrisl, J. (199). Srucural Unemploymen in Ausria. In W. Franz (ed.) Srucural Unemploymen. Heidelberg: Physica-Verlag. Chrisl, J. (1994). Mismach Unemploymen in Ausria. In J. Muysken (ed.) Measuremen and Analysis of Job Vacancies: An Inernaional Comparison. Aldersho: Avebury. De Francesco, A.J. (1999). The Relaionship beween Unemploymen and Vacancies in Ausralia. Applied Economics, 31, Deparmen of Labour, Labour Marke Policy Group (3). Idenificaion of a Survey Opion for he Collecion of Vacancy Informaion in New Zealand, January, 16pp. Hall, R.E. (3). Modern Theories of Unemploymen Flucuaions: Empirics and Policy Applicaions. American Economic Review, 93, Hicks, J. and Chin, F.E. (1984). The Relaionship beween Unemploymen and Vacancies in New Zealand. Massey Universiy Massey Economic Papers B845, March, 33pp. Nickell, S., Nunziaa, L., Ochel, W. and Quinini, G., (1). The Beveridge Curve, Unemploymen and Wages in he OECD from he 196s o he 199s. Cenre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper 5, July, 75pp. Perongolo, B. and Pissarides, C.A. (1). Looking ino he Black Box: A Survey of he Maching Funcion. Journal of Economic Lieraure, 39, Pissarides, C.A. (1986). Unemploymen and Vacancies in Briain. Economic Policy, 3, Blanchard, O.J. and Diamond, P. (1989). The Beveridge Curve. Brookings Papers on Economic Aciviy (1) Bleakley, H. and Fuhrer, J.C. (1997). Shifs in he Beveridge Curve, Job Maching, and Labor Marke Dynamics. New England Economic Review, Bowden, R.J. (198). On he Exisence and Secular Sabiliy of u-v Loci. Economica, 47, Chapple, S. (1995). Scepicism on NAIRU-based Explanaions of New Zealand s Unemploymen. NZIER Working Paper 95/8, 8pp. Silversone, B. (1). Some Aspecs of Labour Marke Flows in New Zealand Universiy of Waikao, Working Papers in Economics /1, November, 4pp. Available from auhor or Web: [fp://mng.waikao.ac.nz/repec/wai/econwp/1.pdf]. Silversone, B. and Gorbey, S. (1995). Unemploymen Dynamics in New Zealand. In P.S. Morrison (ed.) Labour, Employmen and Work in New Zealand 1994, Wellingon: Vicoria Universiy of Wellingon. Tse, C.Y., Leung, C.K.Y. and Chan, W.Y.F. (). Unemploymen and Vacancy in he Hong Kong Labour Marke. Applied Economics Leers, 9, 1-9.

11 11 Wall, H.J. and Zoega, G. (). The Briish Beveridge Curve: A Tale of Ten Regions. Oxford Bullein of Economics and Saisics, 64, Zagorsky, J.L. (1993). Job Vacancies in he Unied Saes and Canada. Journal of Economic and Social Measuremen, 19, Zagorsky, J.L. (1998). Job Vacancies in he Unied Saes: 193 o Review of Economics and Saisics, 8,