Oregon Labor Trends. Nick Beleiciks, State Employment Economist. May 22, 2018 Presentation to the House Interim Committee on Business and Labor

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1 Oregon Labor Trends Nick Beleiciks, State Employment Economist May 22, 2018 Presentation to the House Interim Committee on Business and Labor Support Business Promote Employment 1

2 Job Growth and Wages Support Business Promote Employment 2

3 12-Month Jobs Growth Rate Oregon Job Growth 6% Oregon's Year-Over-Year Percentage Change in Jobs seasonally adjusted 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Support Business Promote Employment 3

4 4.0% East Cascades Continues Fastest Job Growth 12-Month Job Growth Rates by Local Workforce Area March 2017 to March 2018, Seasonally Adjusted 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Support Business Promote Employment 4

5 Oregon Job Growth and Average Pay Information Federal government Wholesale trade Manufacturing Professional and business services Financial activities Oregon Job Growth and Average Pay by Industry April April 2018 Job Growth, 2017 Average Pay $80,174 $74,982 $67,895 $70,299 $67,634 $68,157 72% of the jobs added last year were in industries with average wages higher than the statewide average of $51,132 per year. Construction $57,998 Health care and social assistance* $52,694 State and local government* Transportation, warehousing, and utilities Mining and logging $52,429 $50,716 $51,151 Average Pay Private educational services $37,176 Other services Retail trade $32,004 $30,504 Leisure and hospitality $21,381 *Adjusted for home care worker reclassification Source: Oregon Employment Department -5, ,000 10,000 15,000 Over-the-Year Job Change Support Business Promote Employment 5

6 Real Average Wage of Private Nonfarm Jobs Fell $27.00 Average Hourly Wages on the Rise Oregon, 12-Month Moving Average, Adjusted for Inflation $26.50 $26.00 $25.50 $25.00 $24.50 $24.00 $23.50 $23.00 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Source: Oregon Employment Department and Bureau of Labor Statistics Support Business Promote Employment 6

7 Median Wage and Wages by Area Wage Distribution for All Occupations 2017 HOURLY WAGES 2017 Annual 50th 10th 25th 75th 90th Mean Mean FTE Percentile Percentile Percentile Percentile Percentile (Average) (Average) Workforce Region (Median) Oregon Statewide $10.74 $12.62 $18.59 $29.40 $45.35 $24.40 $50,751 Clackamas $11.70 $13.18 $19.42 $29.88 $46.76 $25.25 $52,530 East Cascades $10.55 $12.03 $16.73 $24.89 $38.22 $21.49 $44,702 Eastern Oregon $10.53 $11.80 $15.83 $23.75 $33.90 $19.85 $41,293 Lane $10.73 $11.98 $16.91 $25.49 $38.27 $21.60 $44,922 Mid-Valley $10.85 $12.21 $17.64 $26.82 $39.76 $22.37 $46,536 Northwest Oregon $10.67 $11.82 $16.65 $25.40 $39.39 $21.63 $45,003 Portland-Metro $11.77 $13.83 $20.94 $33.95 $50.92 $27.53 $57,264 Rogue Valley $10.75 $11.89 $16.13 $24.12 $38.03 $21.07 $43,818 Southwestern Oregon $10.53 $11.83 $16.21 $23.14 $33.45 $20.05 $41,702 Support Business Promote Employment 7

8 Early Peek at Industry Job Projections We re still working on occupational projections. This graph doesn t even include self-employment and replacement openings. Support Business Promote Employment 8

9 Unemployment Support Business Promote Employment 9

10 Unemployed as Percent of Labor Force Low Unemployment Fewer Jobs Seekers for Hire 14.0 Oregon's Unemployment Rate is at a Record Low % in May % in April Support Business Promote Employment 10

11 Percent of Labor Force Near Historic Low Unemployment in Urban and Rural Areas 14.0 Oregon Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rates Non-metro All Other Metro Areas Combined Oregon Portland Area 0.0 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Source: Oregon Employment Department, Local Area Unemployment Statistics Support Business Promote Employment 11

12 Current Workforce Gaps Support Business Promote Employment 12

13 64% of Job Vacancies Difficult to Fill Employer-Provided Reasons for Difficulty Filling Vacancies in Oregon, 2017 All other reasons 13% Low wages 6% Lack of applicants 30% Lack of work experience 9% Lack of soft skills 11% Job growth and low unemployment exposes gaps in the workforce: 60,700 vacancies, 64% are difficult to fill Unfavorable working conditions 14% Lack of qualified candidates 17% Support Business Promote Employment 13

14 Businesses across Oregon have difficulty filling vacancies. Full report available soon! Support Business Promote Employment 14

15 The Employment Landscape of Rural Oregon Support Business Promote Employment 15

16 Special Report May 2017 Support Business Promote Employment 16

17 An Uneven Recovery Rural Oregon Lost Many High-Wage Jobs in Recession Nonmetro Counties Private-Sector Job Loss and Job Growth* *after nearly seven years of recovery Metro Oregon Has Recovered from Recession Metro Counties Private-Sector Job Loss and Job Growth* *after nearly seven years of recovery -11, ,016 Higher-wage industries -28, ,049 Higher-wage industries 2Q2009-2Q2016 2Q2007-2Q2009 2Q2009-2Q2016 2Q2007-2Q2009-6, ,114 Mid-wage industries -71, ,790 Mid-wage industries -9, ,721 Lower-wage industries -64, ,809 Lower-wage industries -15,000-10,000-5, ,000 10,000 15,000 Source: Oregon unemployment insurance wage records Net Change in Number of Jobs -80,000-60,000-40,000-20, ,000 40,000 60,000 80, ,000120,000 Source: Oregon unemployment insurance wage records Net Change in Number of Jobs Support Business Promote Employment 17

18 Slow Population Growth Clatsop Natural Population Increase by County, Natural Increase = Births - Deaths Columbia Tillamook Washington Yamhill Multnomah Clackamas Hood River Wasco Sherman Gilliam Morrow Umatilla Union Wallowa Polk Marion Lincoln Benton Linn Jefferson Wheeler Grant Baker Crook Lane Deschutes Natural Increase 2,001 to 21,400 Coos Douglas Harney Malheur 501 to 2,000 1 to 500 Klamath Lake 0 to -1,850 Curry Josephine Jackson Support Business Promote Employment 18

19 Percent of Rural Oregon Workforce Aging Workforce 100% 90% Rural Oregon's Workforce Much Older Today 55 and Older 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 25 to 54 30% 20% 10% 24 and Younger 0% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Local Employment Dynamics Support Business Promote Employment 19

20 far removed from jobs and employers Support Business Promote Employment 20

21 Rural Job Opportunities Most Job Openings Occur Due to Replacement, Growth Openings Replacement Openings Central Oregon Portland Tri-County Lane County Columbia Gorge Mid-Valley Rogue Valley Douglas County Northwest Oregon Columbia Basin South Central Oregon Northeast Oregon South Coast Southeast Oregon 40% 39% 34% 32% 30% 28% 27% 25% 25% 24% 22% 20% 17% 60% 61% 66% 68% 70% 72% 73% 75% 75% 76% 78% 80% 83% 0% 100% Share of Total Regional Job Openings Support Business Promote Employment 21

22 Nick Beleiciks, State Employment Economist Get the latest workforce and economic research delivered to your inbox! Sign up at Join the conversation: OregonEmployment.Blogspot.com Support Business Promote Employment 22