Labor Market Outlook, Pennsylvania: The Organization, The Issues

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1 Labor Market Outlook, Pennsylvania: The Organization, The Issues Sue Mukherjee Director, Center for Workforce Information & Analysis Pennsylvania Department of Labor & Industry September 11, 2012

2 Presentation Overview The Labor Market Shop: Customers, Products, Delivery Mechanisms, and Factors Affecting the Labor Market Outlook (National Workforce Information Council as LMI Resource) Pennsylvania s LMI Shop/Outlook: Shifting priorities & new products to respond to customer needs Select Pennsylvania Issues & Solutions - Emerging Industries, Natural Gas - Supply-Demand Imbalance 2

3 Our Customers Labor Market Actors Jobseekers and Students Businesses Education & Training Providers Policymakers & Planners Workforce Development, Economic Development Education, Researchers Federal, State, & Local Governments Internal Customers Value-added Disseminators Media Commercial Data Providers

4 What LMI Shops Produce Career Products Products that help jobseekers find jobs, determine skill or education requirements, find training opportunities, or match jobseekers to jobs Economy Products Data, analysis, or studies about some focused aspect of the economy Labor Market Products Data, analysis, or studies of broad labor market trends or outcomes

5 Delivery Mechanisms Data Revisions GIS/Data Mapping Grant Proposal Input Grant Review Interactive Web Tools LMI Advisory/ Interpretation Consulting Newsletters/Updates Presentations Press Releases Special Data Runs Special Topic Studies/ Surveys User Training (including e- learning) Web Services

Factors Affecting LMI Outlook Agency structure Where does LMI fall within the state bureaucracy? Politics How does LMI fit into the current governor s agenda?

6 Factors Affecting LMI Outlook Agency structure Where does LMI fall within the state bureaucracy? Politics How does LMI fit into the current governor s agenda? Leadership What are the priorities of the state s LMI Director? Supplemental state funding for LMI products and services At what level (if at all) does state government or external funding sources contribute to the LMI budget? Staff resources What can an LMI agency accomplish given existing staff resources?

7 US - PA: Overview of Labor Markets U.S. Labor Market Data million employed 12.8 million unemployed 1 8.3% unemployment rate million jobs lost since start of recession 9.2 million business establishments 4.9% of workforce aged million secondary and postsecondary students [1] Local Area Unemployment Statistics, July 2012 [1] Current Employment Statistics, July 2012 [1] Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, 2011Q4 [1] Current Population Survey, July 2012 [1] National Center for Education Statistics, Fall 2009 [1] American Community Survey, 2010 One-Year Estimates Pennsylvania Labor Market Data 6.0 million employed (5,969,000) 1 509,000 unemployed 1 7.9% unemployment rate 1 103,300 jobs lost since start of recession 2 353,000 business establishments 3 5.2% of workforce aged million secondary and postsecondary students privately-owned business and technical training institutions degree-granting postsecondary institutions making program decisions 5 7

8 Pennsylvania s LMI Shop: Center for Workforce Information & Analysis CWIA today has funding from multiple funding sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, includes 6 federal-state cooperative programs (CES, LAUS, QCEW, OES, MLS, and SOII) Employment and Training Administration, Workforce Information Grant Pennsylvania Department of Public Welfare, New Hire Reporting Program Unemployment Compensation Wagner Peyser Pennsylvania Department of Health, Evaluation of RN/LPN Surveys Workers Compensation Grants, Green Jobs Grant, WDQI 8

9 LMI Outlook: Shifting Priorities Pennsylvania: 509,000 looking for work; ~ 200,000 long-term unemployed ~ 280,000 still collecting UC benefits; average duration of regular unemployment benefits ~ 19 weeks 494,000 New Hires first quarter of 2012 ~200,000 online job postings; 2.5 supply/demand ratio 12% of job postings on for more than three months (down from 17 percent in November 2011); diverse range with jobs at $25,000 to $73,000 Overarching Question/s: Where are the jobs? Why are jobs going unfilled if there are 2-3 unemployed people for every available job? Why are job postings not filled in 3 months? Bottom-line : Employers need workers who know how to do certain things; labor market inefficiencies in job matching costs employers/job-seekers; Changing strategy to help smooth & effective labor market interchange is priority for LMI shops 9

10 Goal: Increase relevance & consistency of LMI delivery Examples of recent/updated work to respond to customer need: 1. Research on Growing Industry (Fast Facts Series: PA, WIA, Marcellus Shale, Manufacturing; Green Jobs) 2. Real Time Analytics and Job Spidering (English, Spanish) 3. Career Tool ( 4. Performance Management Reports 5. New Hires Real time by WIA (Quarterly) 6. Local Employment Dynamics (LED) Database 7. Targeted Industry Cluster Reports (Quarterly)* 8. Employer Name-Address File (Quarterly)* 9. Reemployment Reports (ad hoc)* 10. New Hires Commuting Pattern (where people are getting hired...) 11. Supply-Demand Analysis (HPO, STEM) *Revised/updated Bolded entries indicate select projects done in partnership with EMSI 10

Marcellus Shale Research: Collaboration with EMSI CWIA defined Marcellus Shale sector; identified 6 industries as core, 30 ancillary Examples of jobs in core: Roustabouts, Rotary Drill Operators,

11 Marcellus Shale Research: Collaboration with EMSI CWIA defined Marcellus Shale sector; identified 6 industries as core, 30 ancillary Examples of jobs in core: Roustabouts, Rotary Drill Operators, Service Unit Operators, Derrick Operators, Welders Examples of jobs in ancillary or supply chain are: Truck Drivers Heavy and Tractor, Civil Engineers, Industrial Machinery Mechanics, Maintenance & Repair Workers, Construction & Building Inspectors Produced first report in Dec. 2010; began production of Shale Fast Facts April 2011 Italicized jobs have been identified as high priority by ShaleNET 11

Marcellus Shale in Pennsylvania Employment, Core Increase of 159.2 percent (2008Q4 to 2011Q4) Employment, Ancillary Increase of 2.8 percent (2008Q4 to 2011Q4) New Hires Increase of 34.

12 Marcellus Shale in Pennsylvania Employment, Core Increase of percent (2008Q4 to 2011Q4) Employment, Ancillary Increase of 2.8 percent (2008Q4 to 2011Q4) New Hires Increase of 34.4 percent (2009Q2 to 2012Q2) Job Postings Decrease of 3.3 percent (Jul 11 to Jul 12) Marcellus Shale in Six WIAs with Significant Activity Employment, Core Increase of percent (2008Q4 to 2011Q4) Employment, Ancillary Increase of 13.5 percent (2008Q4 to 2011Q4) New Hires Increase of 66.4 percent (2009Q2 to 2012Q2) Job Postings Decrease of 24.2 percent (Jul 11 to Jul 12) 12

13 Workforce Investment Areas with Significant Marcellus Shale Activity 13

14 Marcellus Shale Moving Forward: Occupational Research with Collaboration with EMSI 12 occupations projected to grow fastest in Pennsylvania are all in Marcellus Shale related industries: Rotary drill operators, Oil & Gas Derrick operators, Oil & Gas Service Unit Operators, Oil, Gas & Mining Roustabouts, Oil & Gas Pump operators Wellhead pumpers Petroleum engineers Helpers extraction workers Explosives workers and blasters Geological & petroleum technicians Earth drillers Riggers Shale Occupational Compendium 14

15 First Level of Supply-Demand Analysis for PA 135 unique occupations 2012 High Priority Occupation List. Educational attainment levels of 2012 HPO: 75 will need long-term training (> one year) or some work experience or moderate-term on-the-job training 26 require some postsecondary award or an associate degree 34 require a bachelor s degree or more 2012 Additions Reflect Market Demand: Rotary Drill Operators, Service Unit Operators, Roustabouts, Wellhead Pumpers, Parts Salespersons, Automotive Body & Related Repairers, Automotive Service Technicians, Wholesale & Retail Buyers, Purchasing Agents, Supervisors Retail Sales Workers 2012 Drop offs: Physical Therapists, Veterinarians, Medical Secretaries, Home Health Aides, Nursing Aides, Orderlies & Attendants, Phlebotomists State level HPO only provides framework of supply/demand; other resources to help... 15

16 Supply-Demand Landscape Vary Greatly, Need for Where are these Manufacturing Job Postings? Local Data for Local Decisions Source: The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine (HWOL) 16

17 Multiple Reasons for Imbalance... Skills Mismatch within an Industry Even in declining industries, certain occupations are still growing. Transitioning workers from declining sectors to growing sectors is possible, but additional training may still be needed. Skills Mismatches between Industries Dislocated workers from the construction industry may find better opportunities in another, growing industry. However, the skills required are often very different. Geographic Mismatches Due to the housing market s decline, people owe more on their mortgages than they can get by selling their homes. So, they can t afford to relocate to where job vacancies exist. Wage Mismatches Because of weak demand for goods and services (and excess job seekers) wages may not be at the most desirable levels for new hires. Lack of Training Programs Employers and educators expressing concerns about not having appropriate training programs or qualified educators to teach new and emerging skills to those looking for work. 17

18 State Responses... Local Manufacturers Struggled to Find Qualified Workers in 2011, July 09, 2012 Oregon. Oregon conducts targeted job vacancy survey in Marion, Polk, and Yamhill counties to find nearly one-third of fabricated metal manufacturers struggled to find qualified workers in Florida releases supply-demand model that produces analysis on supply (including unemployed, WIA training program completers, Higher Education completers) and demand (on line job postings including state job posting) by occupation and targets further dialog for occupations with over supply or demand Minnesota conducts a Skills Gap Survey via phone to better understand hiring conditions in Minnesota and what employers are looking for. STEM Gap Analysis done (Supply-Demand) for Pennsylvania and its eight designated STEM Regions in Pennsylvania with collaboration with EMSI 18

19 Thank You! Sue Mukherjee Director Center for Workforce Information & Analysis (717) Customer Response Team (717) (877) Website 19

Questions and Answers Florida Department of Economic Opportunity Employment and Unemployment Data Release July 2018 (Released August 17, 2018)

Questions and Answers Florida Department of Economic Opportunity Employment and Unemployment Data Release July 2018 (Released August 17, 2018) 1. What are the current Florida labor statistics and what