A mul&-&ered ADCIRC-based storm surge and wave predic&on system

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1 A mul&-&ered ADCIRC-based storm surge and wave predic&on system Brian Blanton, Renaissance Compu.ng Ins.tute, UNC-Chapel Hill Rick LueHch, Ins.tute of Marine Sciences, UNC-Chapel Hill Jason Fleming, Seahorse Coastal Consul.ng 1

2 Late and/or difficult-to-interpret informa4on is (almost) useless! Primary Goal: decrease the 4me to delivery of high-resolu4on storm surge, 4de, and wind-wave predic4ons to decision makers. 1) Hurricanes and the resul.ng wind, storm surge, and wave impacts. 2) Enhancements to the ADCIRC-based suite of tools 3) Sta.s.cal methods for early guidance informa.on in a maser of minutes as opposed to hours. DHS Relevance: Targeted at Mission 5: Strengthen Na+onal Preparedness for, and Resilience to, Natural Hazards (Goals 5.1, 5.2, 5.3) New capabili+es for both real-+me decision making informa+on and educa+onal tools Increased understanding of storm impacts on coastal environments essen$al to reducing risks, both now and in the future BeSer, more accurate, and more $mely predic$ons of natural hazards enhance pre- and post-storm emergency response ac$vi$es 2

3 Technical Approach 1) New ADCIRC grid for NC/VA region FEMA Region 3 grid V9.81 NC grid New grid for regional predic.ons CRC 1st Annual Mee.ng 3

4 Technical Approach 1) New ADCIRC grid for NC/VA region Valida.on of new grid Tides Storm surge Leverage FEMA NC and Region 3 knowledge and datasets North Carolina HWMs Region 3 HWMs High water marks Validated wind fields Hurricane Isabel (2003) Ernesto (2006) CRC 1st Annual Mee.ng 4

5 Technical Approach 2) Enhancements to the Adcirc Surge Guidance System (ASGS) ADCIRC Surge Guidance System Advances *Rapid deployment of new grids: all other input files auto-generated *Fine grained control over ADCIRC parameters, per ensemble member *Expanded metadata for use by analysts and decision makers *Integrate +me varying levee heights; model opening gates/spillways *Plugin capability to support database-driven solu.ons (ADCIRC_Lite) 5

6 Technical Approach 2) Enhancements to the Adcirc Surge Guidance System (ASGS) ADCIRC Surge Guidance System Outreach and Capacity Building * Con.nued Workshops and Training: US Army Corps of Engineers Naval Research Lab South Florida Water Management District Cameron Parish Emergency Management LSU Hurricane Center *Enabling Windows and MacOS opera.ng systems *Migra+on to GitHub to expand and facilitate community engagement *Tightened integra.on with Texas Emergency Management via THREDDS 6

7 Technical Approach 3) Sta+s+cal methods for early guidance informa+on Least Squares, Response Surface (ADCIRC_Lite) Kriging Ar.ficial Neural Networks NC Storm Popula.on Extensions to FEMA Region 3 7

8 ADCIRC_Lite GUI Technical Approach 3) Sta+s+cal methods for early guidance informa+on Ensemble track genera.on for ADCIRC-based tools Derived from NHC Forecast Error database 8

9 End Users: Transi4on Ac4vi4es: US Coast Guard FEMA HQ FEMA Region 4 USACE, MVN District NOAA ADCIRC community ADCIRC Annual Users Mee.ng (Apr 16) ADCIRC Bootcamp (Apr 16) WebEx demos of ADCIRC_Lite (May 16) NC-CERA.RENCI.ORG (ongoing) Amer Met Soc 2017 (Jan 17, SeaSle) 9

10 Milestones: 2016: Drak ADCIRC grid for NC/VA (31 Mar) ADCIRC Annual mee.ng and Bootcamp (Apr) Ini.al ensemble track generator for ADCIRC and ADCIRC_Lite (31 Dec) New ADCIRC grid in NC-CERA (31 Dec) 2017: ADCIRC Annual mee.ng and Bootcamp (Apr) Track generator in ADCIRC_Lite GUI (Aug) Comparison/valida.on of track genera.on methods (Oct) 10

11 Expected Outcomes: 1. High-resolu.on coverage of highly risk-prone area (NC/Lower Ches Bay) 2. Enhancements and addi.onal features to ASGS 3. New tools and applica.ons for probabilis.c hurricane track methods 4. Increased body of knowledge about storm surge impacts and tools 5. Broadcast of results to community 6. Entrainment of students (future decision makers) into research and applica.ons 11

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