RETAIL ELECTRIC CHOICE: PROVEN, GROWING, SUSTAINABLE
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1 RETAIL ELECTRIC CHOICE: PROVEN, GROWING, SUSTAINABLE Philip R. O Connor, Ph.D. PROactive Strategies, Inc. Institute for Regulatory Policy Studies Springfield, Illinois April 26, 2012 Phil.OConnor@PROactive-Strategies.net
2 THE ELECTRIC CHOICE SURGE: IN 18 CHOICE STATES During the economic slowdown overall U.S. electricity use in 2011 no greater than 2008 Yet electric choice volumes have grown 40% Competitive retail load has grown by 200 million MWh 488mm MWhto 685mm MWh Competitive customer accounts have grow 53% -from 8.7 million to 13.3 million 18% of all U.S. load served competitively.
3 ELECTRICITY USE FLATLINED DURING THE ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN Chart 1: No Growth in Total Continental U.S. Electricity Load % +4.53% -.86% U.S. Load - GWh (000s) Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
4 ELECTRICITY CHOICE LOAD HAS SURGED 200 MILLION MWH 40% Chart 2: 40% Growth in Retail Competitive Electricity Load (18 Jurisdictions) (% year over year) % % +19.5% 400 U.S. Load - GWh (000s)
5 4.6 MILLION MORE COMPETITIVE CHOICE CUSTOMERS Chart 3: 53% Growth in Competitive Retail Electricity Customer Accounts (% year over year) 11, % Accounts (In Thousands) 9,000 7,000 5, % +20.8% 3, % +18.4% +22.7% 1,000 Residential 7,111 7,493 9,049 10,957 C & I 1,583 1,641 1,943 2,385
6 THE CHOICE SURGE IS IN C&I AND RESIDENTIAL Chart 4: Annual Retail MWH Competitive Electricity Load by Customer Class ( ) 700 MWh (millions) Residential Commercial & Industrial Total
7 30.0% 18% OF U.S. LOAD SERVED COMPETITIVELY Chart 5: Competitive Load as a % of Total Continental U.S. ( ) 25.0% 24.0% Competitive Load % 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 17.1% 18.1% 13.2% 13.8% 20.7% 15.8% 18.5% 9.4% 5.0% 6.4% 6.7% 7.9% 0.0% C & I 17.1% 18.1% 20.7% 24.0% Total 13.2% 13.8% 15.8% 18.5% Residential 6.4% 6.7% 7.9% 9.4% and EIA
8 RULES OF THE GAME MAKE THE DIFFERENCE State and Federal Regulators have been harmonizing rules and achieving consistency Stable regulation and clear rules Wholesale competition & open access Cost-based delivery rates (no cross-subsidies) Market-based default service Customer Data & Electronic Data Interchange Utility Consolidated Billing (UCB) and Purchase of Receivables (POR) Customer Education & Promotion of Choice
9 CONNECTICUT: C&I AND RESIDENTIAL CHOICE GROWING IN TANDEM Chart 6: Connecticut % of Eligible C & I Load Served Competitively ( ) 90.0% 85.0% 80.0% 75.0% % Competitive 70.0% 65.0% 60.0% 55.0% 50.0% 45.0% 40.0% United Illum. Co. 70.6% 75.9% 83.2% 85.9% CT L&P 63.6% 73.0% 80.4% 84.9%
10 CONNECTICUT: MARKET-BASED DEFAULT & EASY SHOPPING Chart 7: Connecticut % of Eligible Residential Load Served Competitively ( ) 60.0% 50.0% % Competitive 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% United Illum Co. 9.9% 15.1% 34.7% 52.0% CT L&P 6.6% 11.3% 29.5% 44.2%
11 NEW JERSEY: TEXTBOOK CASE OF C&I ELECTRICITY CHOICE Chart 8: New Jersey % of Eligible C & I Load Served Competitively ( ) 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% % Competitive 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Atlantic City 38.3% 48.4% 63.2% 73.4% Jersey Central 36.6% 48.3% 62.5% 67.8% PSEG 33.3% 44.4% 57.3% 69.9% Rockland 18.2% 27.6% 41.3% 52.5%
12 NEW JERSEY RESIDENTIAL SURGE: MARKET-BASED PROCURMENT Chart 9: New Jersey % of Eligible Residential Load Served Competitively ( ) 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% % Competitive 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Atlantic City 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 14.6% Jersey Central 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% 13.2% PSEG 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 11.2% Rockland 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 8.1%
13 OHIO: UTILITY-BY-UTILITY DEVELOPMENT OF C&I CHOICE % Competitive Chart 10: Ohio % of Eligible C & I Load Served Competitively % 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% CG&E 4.3% 18.2% 72.4% 87.2% Cleveland 12.5% 18.0% 63.7% 86.7% Ohio Edison 20.9% 19.5% 69.9% 81.1% Toledo Edison 13.5% 19.0% 70.4% 77.0% Dayton P & L 34.4% 17.4% 49.5% 74.2% Columbus & So. 1.0% 1.1% 4.7% 31.5% Ohio Power 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.5%
14 OHIO: THE RESIDENTIAL CHOICE MUNICIPAL AGGREGATION MODEL % Competitive Chart 11: Ohio % of Residential Load Served Competitively % 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Cleveland 7.8% 18.3% 61.5% 77.7% Toledo Edison 9.1% 13.9% 52.0% 68.7% Ohio Edison 14.5% 11.0% 41.9% 64.3% CG&E 1.7% 5.1% 18.4% 34.4% Dayton P & L 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% Columbus & So. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% Ohio Power 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
15 PENNSYLVANIA: VARIATIONS ACROSS UTILITIES IN C&I CHOICE Chart 12: Pennsylvania % of Eligible C & I Load Served Competitively % Competitive 100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% PPL 0.1% 0.1% 75.6% 92.0% Duquesne 69.8% 73.4% 76.4% 82.1% Penn Power* 77.6% 76.7% 79.7% 80.7% Peco 1.8% 1.5% 1.5% 80.5% MetEd / Penelec* 2.5% 2.9% 5.2% 80.5% West Penn* 0.0% 2.2% 5.9% 69.2% UGI 0.0% 1.4% 38.9% 45.3% *First Energy
16 PENNSYLVANIA: VIGOROUS REGULATORY LEADERSHIP % Competitive Chart 13:Pennsylvania % of Eligible Residential Load Served Competitively % 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% PPL 0.0% 0.0% 26.8% 44.8% Duquesne 23.0% 21.3% 21.4% 32.7% Penn Power* 7.7% 10.8% 13.2% 20.2% Peco 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 19.9% West Penn* 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.2% MetEd / Penelec* 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.3% UGI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% *First Energy
17 MARYLAND: RESIDENTIAL CHOICE CATCHING UP TO C&I COMPETITION Chart 14: Maryland % Eligible Residential Load Served Competitively % 25.0% % Competitive 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Pepco 6.6% 7.6% 10.7% 22.2% BG & E 2.7% 3.6% 10.8% 24.6% Delmarva 1.3% 1.3% 3.3% 11.8% Potomac Edison 0.0% 0.4% 2.7% 7.9%
18 RHODE ISLAND: THE FIRST CHOICE STATE IS MOVING AGAIN 60.0% Chart 15: Rhode Island % of Eligible C & I Load Served Competitively % % Competitive 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Narragansett 22.9% 41.5% 52.3% 48.0%
19 ILLINOIS: COSTLIER THAN U.S. AVG BEFORE CHOICE BUT LOWER AFTER Total Electric Industry -All Sectors Average Rate (cents/kwh) Year Illinois US Ratio cents/kwh Historical EIA Average Retail Rates Illinois v. US ( ) Year Illinois US Ratio
20 EMBEDDING ELECTRICITY CHOICE 2012 AND BEYOND 20% of US load will be served under choice as customers access low prices due to gas glut. Pressure rising on California & Michigan to liberalize limits on customer choice Choice in the EU is growing and Japan is moving toward competition post-tsunami Smart Grid deployment benefits enhanced by customer choice and vice versa. Choice and smart appliances/equipment will yield substantial efficiency gains.
21 Philip R. O Connor, Ph.D. PROactive-Strategies, Inc. -- Chicago, Illinois Dr. Phil O Connor is President of PROactiveStrategies, a Chicago consulting firm providing advice in the energy and insurance industries. For over two decades Phil has been recognized as a leading advocate of competitive market solutions for regulated businesses. Phil is the author of Customer Choice in Electricity Markets: From Novel to Normal, published by COMPETE Coalition in November 2010 and co-author with Terrence L. Barnich of The Grand Experiment: Has Restructuring Succeeded on Either Continent?, published in Public Utilities Fortnightly, February In addition to a lengthy career in the private sector, Phil has had extensive government and political experience, having chaired the Illinois Commerce Commission serving as Director of the Illinois Department of Insurance and as a member of the Illinois State Board of Elections. Five consecutive Illinois Governors have appointed him to various boards and commissions. From March 2007 to March 2008, Phil served in the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, Iraq with the US Army Corps of Engineers and the US State Department as an advisor to the Iraqi Ministry of Electricity. A magna cum laude graduate of Loyola University of Chicago, Phil receivedhis Master s and Doctorate in Political Science from Northwestern University. Phil.OConnor@PROactive-Strategies.net
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