Unmanned Combat Air Systems in Future Warfare

Transcription

1 Unmanned Combat Air Systems in Future Warfare

2

3 Unmanned Combat Air Systems in Future Warfare Gaining Control of the Air Colin Wills Director, Combat Air Solutions Ltd

4 Colin Wills 2015 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. No portion of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, Saffron House, 6-10 Kirby Street, London EC1N 8TS. Any person who does any unauthorized act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages. The author has asserted his right to be identified as the author of this work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act First published 2015 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN Palgrave Macmillan in the UK is an imprint of Macmillan Publishers Limited, registered in England, company number , of Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire, RG21 6XS. Palgrave Macmillan in the US is a division of St Martin s Press LLC, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY Palgrave Macmillan is the global academic imprint of the above companies and has companies and representatives throughout the world. Palgrave and Macmillan are registered trademarks in the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe and other countries. ISBN DOI / ISBN (ebook) This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fully managed and sustained forest sources. Logging, pulping and manufacturing processes are expected to conform to the environmental regulations of the country of origin. A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Wills, Colin, 1959 Unmanned combat air systems in future warfare : gaining control of the air / Colin Wills, Director, Combat Air Solutions Ltd. pages cm Includes bibliographical references and index. 1. Air warfare. 2. Uninhabited combat aerial vehicles. 3. United States. Air Force Weapons systems. 4. United States. Navy Weapons systems. I. Title. UG633.W dc

5 Contents List of Acronyms and Abbreviations viii 1 Introduction 1 2 Research Interviews 5 Interviewee background and experience 5 Analysis 7 NEC and requirement to enter the close-combat fight 8 Third-Party Targeting 9 UCAS airframe characteristics and manoeuvrability requirements 11 Ethical and political implications 13 Is the manned fighter necessary and could UCAS gain control of the air in 2040? 15 Summary 15 3 Overview 17 UCAS background 17 Future threat environment 19 Technologies 20 Aerial warfare 21 US UAS roadmaps 22 Autonomy or automation? 24 The one-seat versus two-seat debate 26 Potential cost benefits 29 Leadership challenges 30 The UCAS debate 31 Concept of operations 32 Summary 35 4 Unmanned Combat Air Systems: Technical and Legal Challenges 37 UCAS developments 37 UCAS technological challenges 40 Future weapon systems and autonomy capabilities 42 Autonomy 43 TDL 46

6 vi Contents AAR 47 Weapon systems and sensors 48 Countermeasures 50 The LOAC and employment of UCAS 51 The LOAC 52 Summary 55 5 The Role of Air and Space Power and Control of the Air 57 Control of the air 62 The counter-air campaign 64 Summary 67 Components of the counter-air campaign 68 Basing 69 Stealth 70 Counters to stealth 71 Weapon systems, sensors and enablers 73 Electronic warfare 75 Cyber warfare 76 Command and control 77 Network enabled capability 77 Integrated air defence system 78 Situational awareness 79 Historical analysis of situational awareness 80 AAM development 87 Western AAM development 88 Russian and Chinese AAM development 91 6 The Evolution of Air-to-Air Warfare 93 AAS kill probability 94 Historical analysis of air-to-air kills 96 Modern air-to-air combat philosophy 101 Future air-to-air scenario 104 UCAS CONOPS International Relations and Future Threats 111 Introduction 111 China 117 China s strategic priorities 120 Economic development 123 String of pearls, SLOC and the South China Sea 124 China s military build-up 126 The First and Second Island Chains 130

7 Contents vii Taiwan and the South China Sea 130 Summary 132 China s A2/AD doctrine 133 Counters to China s A2/AD doctrine 138 China s ASBM development 138 Summary Conclusion 145 Notes 153 Bibliography 189 Responders to Questionnaire 189 Military 189 Aviation Analysts 191 Civilians 191 Chatham House Rule 192 Archive References 192 Freedom of Information Requests 192 Personal Correspondence and Serendipitous Research 192 Transcripts 192 Books 193 Electronic Books 201 Journals 202 Electronic Journals 205 Dissertations and Theses 206 Official Publications 207 Newspaper and Periodical Articles 213 Electronic Newspaper and Periodical Articles 215 Websites 217 Index 221

8 List of Acronyms and Abbreviations A2/AD AAG AAM AAR AAS ABM ACEVAL ACM ACMI AESA AEW AFRL AI AM AMRAAM AAA ASBM ASCM ASRAAM ASMS ATD ATI ATR AWACS BACN BM BVR C2 C4ISTAR CAS CCP CDE CID Anti-Access/Area-Denial Air-to-Air Gun Air-to-Air Missile Air-to-Air Refuelling Air-to-Air System Anti-Ballistic Missile Air Combat Evaluation Air Chief Marshal Air Combat Manoeuvring Instrumentation Active Electronically Scanned Array Airborne Early Warning Air Force Research Laboratory Artificial Intelligence Air Marshal Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missile Anti-Aircraft Artillery Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile Anti-Ship Cruise Missile Advanced Short-Range Air-to-Air Missile Advanced Surface Missile System Automatic Target Detection Automatic Target Initiation Automatic target Recognition Airborne Warning and Control System Battlefield Airborne Communication Node Ballistic Missile Beyond Visual Range Command and Control Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance, Targeting Acquisition and Reconnaissance Chief of the Air Staff Chinese Communist Party Collateral Damage Estimation Combat Identification viii

9 List of Acronyms and Abbreviations ix CIHL CNP COIN COMAO CNO CONOPS COP CSBA CSG DAMM DCA DCDC DEW DIRCM DMT DoD DPOC DRFM DSTL EA ECM ELINT EMS EP ES EW FJ F2T2EA FLOAAT G GCS GDP GPS HEL HITL HMCS HMI HOBS HOTL HPM HVAA Customary International Humanitarian Law Comprehensive National Power Counter Insurgency Composite Air Operations Computer Network Operations Concept of Operations Common Operating Picture Center for Strategy and Budgetary Assessment Carrier Strike Group Dynamic Airborne Mission Management Defensive Counter Air Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre Directed Energy Weapons Directed Infrared Countermeasures Distributed Mission Training Department of Defense Deep and Persistent Offensive Capability Digital Radio Frequency Memory Defence, Science and Technology Laboratory Electronic Attack Electronic Countermeasures Electronic Intelligence Electromagnetic Spectrum Electronic Protection Electronic Support Electronic Warfare Fast Jet Find, Fix, Target, Track, Engage and Assess Function-specific Level of Autonomy and Automation Tool Force of Gravity Ground Control Station Gross Domestic Product Global Positioning System High Energy Laser Human-in-the-Loop Helmet Mounted Cueing System Human Machine Interface High-Angle Off-Boresight Human-on-the-Loop High-Powered Microwave High Value Airborne Asset

10 x List of Acronyms and Abbreviations IADS IISS IOT&E IR IRSTS ISR ISTAR JSF JTIDS km LADAR Lt Lt Col LO LOAC LVC-IA Maj MAKS MAWS MOD NASA NATO NCADE NCW NEC NIESR nm OCA OED OG OODA OUE OTH PACOM P k P ssk PLA PLAAF PLAN PRC Integrated Air Defence System International Institute for Strategic Studies Initial Operational Test and Evaluation Infrared Infrared Search and Track System Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance Intelligence, Surveillance, Target Acquisition, and Reconnaissance Joint Strike Fighter Joint Tactical Information Distribution System Kilometre Laser Detection and Ranging Lieutenant Lieutenant Colonel Low Observable Law of Armed Conflict Live Virtual and Constructive Integrating-Architecture Major Mezhdunarodnyj Aviatsionno-Kosmicheskij Salon Missile Approach Warning System Ministry of Defence National Air and Space Administration North Atlantic Treaty Organisation Network-Centric Airborne Defense Element Network Centric Warfare Network Enabled Capability National Institute of Economic and Social Research Nautical Mile Offensive Counter Air Oxford English Dictionary Objective Gateway Observe-Orient-Decide-Action Operational Utility Evaluation Over the Horizon Pacific Command Probability of a Kill Probability of a single-shot kill People s Liberation Army People s Liberation Army Air Force People s Liberation Army Navy People s Republic of China

11 List of Acronyms and Abbreviations xi QWI RAF RAM RCS RF RFC RMA RN RNAS ROE RPA RPAS SAM SEAD SIGINT SLOC Sqn Ldr TDL TIBS TLC TPT TRA TST TTP UA UAS UAV UCAS UCAS-D UCAV UCLAS USAF USMC USN VHF Wg Cdr WSO WVR Qualified Weapons Instructor Royal Air Force Radar Absorbent Materials Radar Cross Section Radio Frequency Royal Flying Corps Revolution in Military Affairs Royal Navy Royal Navy Air Service Rules of Engagement Remotely Piloted Aircraft Remotely Piloted Air System Surface-to-Air Missile Suppression of Enemy Air Defence Signals Intelligence Sea Lines of Communication Squadron Leader Tactical Data-Links Tactical Information Broadcast System Through-Life Costs Third-Party Targeting Taiwan Relations Act Time-Sensitive Target Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures Unmanned Aircraft Unmanned Aircraft System Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Unmanned Combat Air System Unmanned Combat Air System Demonstrator Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicle Unmanned Carrier Launched Air Surveillance and Strike United States Air Force United States Marine Corp United States Navy Very High Frequency Wing Commander Weapon Systems Operator Within Visual Range