August Jobless Rates Dropped throughout Southwest Michigan Mostly Due to a Withdrawal of Youth and Other Seasonal Workers from the Labor Force
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1 Metropolitan Statistical Areas Author: Dr. Leonidas Murembya, State Coordinator of Regional Economic Research Southwest Michigan 201 N. Washington Sq., 5 th Floor Lansing MI Phone: Bureau of Labor Market Information and Strategic Initiatives (LMISI) Jobless Rates Dropped throughout Southwest Michigan Mostly Due to a Withdrawal of Youth and Other Seasonal Workers from the Labor Force unemployment rates fell substantially in all regional counties, despite modest changes in employment levels. The jobless rate declines were instead related to fewer summer and seasonal jobseekers in local labor markets in. Some support staff in the private and public schools were recalled in to prepare for the upcoming school year. Another factor in the jobless rate reductions in a few counties (e.g., Kalamazoo and St. Joseph) was a seasonal increase in temporary jobs in the agricultural sector. Grand Rapids-Wyoming Detroit-Warren-Dearborn Figure 1: Jobless Rates Ann Arbor Lansing-East Lansing Monroe Midland Kalamazoo-Portage Battle Creek Jackson Niles-Benton Harbor Bay City Saginaw Muskegon Flint points, respectively (Table 3). 3.4% 3.5% 4.0% 4.1% 4.2% 4.2% 4.6% 4.7% 4.8% 4.9% 5.0% 5.2% 5.4% 6.2% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% In, all Southwest Michigan labor markets displayed an unemployment rate that was lower than the unadjusted statewide rate of 5.2 percent, which matched the nation s unadjusted jobless rate (Figure 2). jobless rates in both metro and non-metro labor markets of Southwest Michigan were substantially below last jobless rates for all four Southwest Michigan Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA) fell below five percent. The Michigan unadjusted unemployment rate was estimated at 5.2 percent in. Of the 14 Michigan MSAs, the Kalamazoo-Portage displayed the 5 th lowest unemployment rate in, matching the rate in the Midland area. Battle Creek ranked 6 th ; Jackson 7 th ; and Niles- Benton Harbor 8 th. Regional Jobless Rates Reduced Considerably in and Over the Year Jobless rates decreased by an average of a full percentage point in all Southwest Michigan metro counties, and by 1.3 percentage points in nonmetro labor markets (Tables 1 and 2). Jobless rates in the two local Prosperity Regions 8 and 9 declined as well over the month by 1.1 and 1.0 percentage Figure 2: Jobless Rates for Southwest Michigan Counties Page Source: Bureau of Labor Market Information and Strategic Initiatives
2 year s levels by -1.6 and -1.8 percentage points on average, respectively. Labor Force Levels Declined Mostly over the Month but Were Up Generally over the Year In, civilian labor force declined in all metro and almost all non-metro labor markets of Southwest Michigan, with the exception of Cass, where workforce levels remained flat, and in Lenawee and St. Joseph counties where the levels of labor force rose by 225 and 525, respectively. The workforce reductions in local metropolitan statistical areas (MSA) were minor: -300 in Niles-Benton Harbor (Berrien County); -400 in Kalamazoo-Portage (Kalamazoo and Van Buren counties), -700 in Battle Creek (Calhoun County), and -800 in Jackson. Over the year, labor force gains were recorded in the Niles-Benton Harbor MSA (+300), Battle Creek (+900), and Kalamazoo-Portage (+1,600). Labor force levels declined year to year in in the Jackson MSA (-800) (Table 1). Labor force reductions in across Southwest Michigan non-metro labor markets were also minimal and extended from -125 in Branch to -375 in Allegan. Over the year, workforce levels edged down in Branch (-50), Lenawee (-150), and Hillsdale (-175), while inching up in Cass (+200) and St. Joseph (+250). Allegan County s labor force rose substantially year to year in (+1,125 or +1.9 percent) (Table 2). Household Employment Edged Up in and Improved Considerably Over the Year Employment by place of residence was stable in throughout Southwest Michigan. In metro areas, additions to household employment extended from +100 in Battle Creek to +1,300 in Kalamazoo-Portage. Jackson and Niles-Benton Harbor MSAs also added some employment in : +200 and +300, respectively. In non-metro areas, Lenawee and St. Joseph counties recorded substantial household employment gains in (+800 and +1,025, respectively). Place-ofresidence employment additions in the remaining non-metro counties of Southwest Michigan extended from +100 in Hillsdale to +250 in Cass. Since 2014, employment improved in all metro and nonmetro areas of Southwest Michigan. Employment expanded in the Kalamazoo-Portage (+4,300), Battle Figure 3: Percent Employment in Southwest Michigan Counties Over the Year Page 2 Over the Month Nation Michigan St. Joseph Lenawee Hillsdale Cass Branch Barry Allegan Berrien Van Buren Kalamazoo Jackson Calhoun Source: Labor Market Information and Strategic Initiatives
3 Unemployment Rates Author: Dr. Leonidas Murembya, State Coordinator of Regional Economic Research Creek (+1,800), Niles-Benton Harbor (+1,500), and Jackson (+400) metro areas. Place-of-residence employment also progressed in all local non-metro counties over the year, ranging from +225 in Hillsdale to +2,075 in Allegan County. Current jobless rates in all four Southwest metropolitan areas were considerably lower than the levels attained in 2006: Jackson (-3.1 percentage points), Battle Creek (-2.7), Niles-Benton Harbor (-2.4), and Kalamazoo (-1.4). However, the number of individuals active in the labor market (employed or unemployed) was substantially Figure 4: Local Metro Area Unemployment Rates Since 2006 Year s Areas Benton Harbor Battle Creek Grand Rapids Jackson Kalamazoo lower in than in 2006: Kalamazoo-Portage (-10,100); Jackson (-5,600), Battle Creek (-5,500); and Niles-Benton Harbor (-5,000). Unemployment rates in local metropolitan areas escalated to double digits by an average of 6.2 percentage points during the recent Great Recession. But, since the official end of the recession in the second half of 2009, local metros jobless rates have plunged by over eight percentage points on average. Figure 5: Comparing the Trend of Local MSAs Unemployment Rates Since Benton Harbor Jackson Kalamazoo Battle Creek Gd. Rapids Years Source: Labor Market Information and Strategic Initiatives Nonfarm Payroll Jobs Were Stable in in Southwest Michigan Metro Areas In, all four Southwest Michigan metropolitan statistical areas displayed typical seasonal payroll job changes: minor job gains in the education and professional and business services sectors, and in some areas, negligible employment reductions in leisure and hospitality. Page 3
4 Battle Creek Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) Author: Dr. Leonidas Murembya, State Coordinator of Regional Economic Research Payroll jobs in the Battle Creek MSA (Calhoun County) remained unchanged over the month but continued to expand over the year. Current payroll employment levels remained at 59,400. The area gained 100 jobs in local public education but cut another 100 in trade, transportation, warehousing, and utilities. Figure 6: Sectors with Payroll Job (July - ) Battle Creek MSA Trade, Transportation, -1.1% Government 1.0% -1.5% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% Source: Labor Market Information and Strategic Initiatives Since 2014, employment improved in most sectors, with the exception of trade, transportation, warehousing, and utilities (-300). A 500-job addition each was recorded in professional and business services, and in educational and health services. Leisure and hospitality services also created 400 new positions year to year. Manufacturing employment rose by 300 since 2014 in, despite the loss of 200 in non-durable goods manufacturing. Total payroll jobs in Battle Creek progressed by 1,500 (or +2.6 percent) from 2014 to, the highest level they have ever reached for since Jackson Metropolitan Statistical Area (Jackson County) Figure 7: Sectors with Payroll Job (July - ) Jackson MSA Total Nonfarm 0.5% Government Leisure and Hospitalit Professional and Busin 1.3% 2.0% 2.8% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% Source: Labor Market Information and Strategic Initiatives Nonfarm payroll employment in the Jackson MSA (Jackson County) inched up in by 300 to a total of 56,300. A 100-job gain each was recorded in local public education, leisure and hospitality, and professional and business services. Page 4
5 From 2014 to in, the gains of employment in the trade, transportation, warehousing, and utilities (+500) and in manufacturing (+200) were largely offset by over the year job cuts in leisure and hospitality (-300) and government (-400). Total nonfarm payroll jobs in Jackson edged down 100 over the year, and were 3,000 below the 2006 levels. Kalamazoo-Portage MSA (Kalamazoo and Van Buren counties) Leisure and Hospitalit Manufacturing Educational and Health Total Nonfarm Trade, Transportation, Government Professional and Busin Figure 8: Sectors with Payroll Job (July - ) Kalamazoo MSA -1.8% -0.5% -0.4% 0.5% 1.2% 1.6% 3.7% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% Source: Labor Market Information and Strategic Initiatives Total payroll jobs in the Kalamazoo-Portage MSA (Kalamazoo and Van Buren counties) rose slightly by 700 in to a total of 141,300. Seasonal job gains were recorded in professional and business services (+600) and in local and state public education (+300). Retail employment also rose by 300. However, employment in leisure and hospitality edged down by 300. A 100-job cut each in was recorded in manufacturing and in private educational services. Since 2014, trade, transportation, and utilities is the only sector that displayed a substantial payroll employment decline (-500). Information employment edged down 100. Jobs in all other sectors increased: +800 in manufacturing; +700 each in professional and business services and in leisure and hospitality; and +500 each in construction and in private educational services. Government employment also inched up 300 year to year in. Total payroll jobs in Kalamazoo were 3,300 or +2.4 percent above 2014 levels but were still 1,800 below the 2007 pre-recessionary levels. Page 5
6 Niles-Benton Harbor MSA (Berrien County) Author: Dr. Leonidas Murembya, State Coordinator of Regional Economic Research Figure 9: Sectors with Payroll Job (July - ) Niles-Benton Harbor MSA Total Nonfarm 0.5% Professional and Busin 1.7% Educational and Health 2.3% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% Source: Labor Market Information and Strategic Initiatives In, nonfarm payroll jobs in the Niles-Benton Harbor MSA (Berrien County) inched up by 300. Employment in most sectors remained flat over the month, with the exceptions of professional and business (+100) and education and health services (+200). Total nonfarm payroll jobs in the Niles- Benton Harbor MSA were estimated at 63,000 in. Since 2014, leisure and hospitality added 900, and jobs in manufacturing improved by 500. However, employment in the sector of trade, transportation, warehousing, and utilities plummeted by 500 over the year, and construction lost 100 positions. Total nonfarm employment was 1,000 or 1.6 percent above 2014 levels. However, current payroll jobs were still 4,200 below the 2007 pre-recessionary levels. Notes: Data in this release is not seasonally adjusted. As a result, employment and unemployment trends outlined in this release for could differ from previously released Michigan seasonally adjusted data. FOR MORE INFORMATION, please contact the Regional Contact, Dr. Leonidas Murembya, in Lansing at 517/ , or visit our website at Page 6
7 Table 1: Southwest Michigan Metropolitan Statistical Areas - Labor Force Estimates Area Data '15 July '15 '14 Numeric Percent Numeric Percent Niles-Benton Harbor Labor Force 74,800 75,100 74, % % MSA (Berrien County) Employed 71,200 70,900 69, % 1, % Unemployed 3,600 4,200 4, % -1, % Rate Battle Creek MSA Labor Force 64,900 65,600 64, % % (Calhoun County) Employed 61,900 61,800 60, % 1, % Unemployed 3,000 3,800 3, % % Rate Jackson MSA Labor Force 72,400 73,200 73, % % (Jackson County) Employed 69,000 68,800 68, % % Unemployed 3,400 4,400 4,700-1, % -1, % Rate Kalamazoo-Portage MSA Labor Force 164, , , % 1, % Employed 157, , ,000 1, % 4, % Unemployed 6,900 8,600 9,600-1, % -2, % Rate Kalamazoo Labor Force 128, , , % 1, % County Employed 123, , ,075 1, % 3, % Unemployed 5,125 6,450 7,125-1, % -2, % Rate Van Buren Labor Force 35,675 35,775 35, % % County Employed 33,875 33,625 32, % % Unemployed 1,800 2,150 2, % % Rate Grand Rapids-Wyoming Labor Force 560, , ,900-3, % 17, % MSA Employed 541, , ,100 1, % 24, % Unemployed 19,000 23,700 26,800-4, % -7, % Rate Source: Bureau of Labor Market Information and Strategic Initiatives Page 7
8 Table 2: Southwest Michigan Non-Metro Counties - Labor Force Estimates Area Data '15 July '15 '14 Numeric Percent Numeric Percent Allegan Labor Force 61,425 61,800 60, % 1, % Employed 59,300 59,100 57, % 2, % Unemployed 2,125 2,675 3, % % Unemployment Rate Branch Labor Force 19,400 19,525 19, % % Employed 18,550 18,400 18, % % Unemployed 850 1,125 1, % % Unemployment Rate Cass Labor Force 23,925 23,925 23, % % Employed 22,850 22,600 22, % % Unemployed 1,075 1,325 1, % % Unemployment Rate Hillsdale Labor Force 20,300 20,475 20, % % Employed 19,300 19,200 19, % % Unemployed 975 1,250 1, % % Unemployment Rate Lenawee Labor Force 47,500 47,275 47, % % Employed 45,400 44,600 44, % % Unemployed 2,100 2,675 2, % % Unemployment Rate St. Joseph Labor Force 29,875 29,350 29, % % Employed 28,725 27,700 27,950 1, % % Unemployed 1,150 1,650 1, % % Unemployment Rate Source: Bureau of Labor Market Information and Strategic Initiatives Page 8
9 Table 3: Prosperity Regions Labor Force Estimates Area Data Aug. '15 July '15 Aug. '14 Numeric Percent Numeric Percent 8 - Southwest Prosperity Region Labor Force 377, , , % 3, % (Berrien, Branch, Calhoun, Cass, Employed 360, , ,275 3, % 9, % Kalamazoo, St. Joseph, Unemployed 16,600 20,700 22,600-4, % -6, % Van Buren counties) Rate Southeast Prosperity Region Labor Force 496, , ,450-3, % % (Hillsdale, Jackson, Lenawee, Employed 475, , ,200 1, % 8, % Livingston, Monroe, Unemployed 20,625 25,750 29,325-5, % -8, % Washtenaw counties) Rate Source: Bureau of Labor Market Information and Strategic Initiatives Page 9
10 Table 4: Southwest Michigan MSAs - Payroll Employment - Battle Creek MSA July 2014 Total Nonfarm 59,400 59,400 57, % 1, % Mining, Logging, and Construction 1,900 1,900 1, % 0 0.0% Manufacturing 11,700 11,700 11, % % Trade, Transportation, 9,300 9,400 9, % % Financial Activities 1,200 1,200 1, % 0 0.0% Professional and Business 6,600 6,600 6, % % Educational and Health 10,900 10,900 10, % % Leisure and Hospitality 5,200 5,200 4, % % Other Services 2,200 2,200 2, % % Government 10,000 9,900 9, % % Jackson MSA July 2014 Total Nonfarm 56,300 56,000 56, % % Mining, Logging, and Construction 1,900 1,900 1, % 0 0.0% Manufacturing 9,800 9,800 9, % % Trade, Transportation, Utilities 13,300 13,300 12, % % Information % 0 0.0% Financial Activities 1,900 1,900 1, % 0 0.0% Professional and Business 3,700 3,600 3, % 0 0.0% Educational and Health 9,900 9,900 10, % % Leisure and Hospitality 5,100 5,000 5, % % Other Services 2,600 2,600 2, % 0 0.0% Government 7,700 7,600 8, % % Kalamazoo MSA July 2014 Total Nonfarm 141, , , % 3, % Mining, Logging, and Construction 5,700 5,700 5, % % Manufacturing 21,100 21,200 20, % % Trade, Transportation, Utilities 24,700 24,400 25, % % Information , % % Financial Activities 8,200 8,200 8, % % Professional and Business 16,900 16,300 16, % % Educational and Health 22,600 22,700 22, % % Leisure and Hospitality 16,600 16,900 15, % % Other Services 5,700 5,700 5, % % Government 18,900 18,600 18, % % Niles-Benton Harbor MSA July 2014 Total Nonfarm 63,000 62,700 62, % 1, % Mining, Logging, and Construction 1,900 1,900 2, % % Manufacturing 13,600 13,600 13, % % Trade, Transportation, Utilities 10,300 10,300 10, % % Information % 0 0.0% Financial Activities 2,300 2,300 2, % % Professional and Business 5,900 5,800 5, % 0 0.0% Educational and Health 8,800 8,600 8, % % Leisure and Hospitality 8,900 8,900 8, % % Other Services 2,400 2,400 2, % 0 0.0% Government 8,400 8,400 8, % 0 0.0% Page 10
11 Table 5: Southwest Michigan Works! Agencies Local Area Employment Data January Februa ry March April May June July September October November December Ann Avg Branch-Calhoun- Kalamazoo-St. Joseph Labor force 240, , , , , , , , ,575 Employment 227, , , , , , , , ,000 Unemployed 12,625 11,275 11,350 9,775 12,275 12,225 12,975 10,075 11,575 Rate Branch Calhoun Kalamazoo St. Joseph Labor force 19,150 19,175 19,450 19,175 19,750 19,800 19,525 19,400 19,425 Employment 18,000 18,150 18,350 18,300 18,700 18,775 18,400 18,550 18,400 Unemployed 1,150 1,050 1, ,050 1,025 1, ,025 Rate Labor force 64,600 64,700 64,750 64,475 66,000 65,950 65,600 64,900 65,125 Employment 60,850 61,325 61,375 61,575 62,400 62,400 61,825 61,925 61,725 Unemployed 3,750 3,350 3,350 2,900 3,600 3,550 3,775 2,975 3,400 Rate Labor force 127, , , , , , , , ,575 Employment 121, , , , , , , , ,800 Unemployed 6,225 5,575 5,550 4,850 6,225 6,225 6,450 5,125 5,775 Rate Labor force 29,000 29,050 29,275 29,250 29,850 29,850 29,350 29,875 29,450 Employment 27,475 27,750 27,925 28,100 28,450 28,450 27,700 28,725 28,075 Unemployed 1,525 1,300 1,350 1,150 1,425 1,400 1,650 1,150 1,375 Rate Berrien-Cass-Van Buren Labor force 131, , , , , , , , ,700 Employment 123, , , , , , , , ,125 Unemployed 8,925 7,950 7,700 6,400 7,825 7,700 7,650 6,425 7,575 Rate Berrien Cass Labor force 72,200 72,100 72,800 73,100 75,000 75,200 75,100 74,800 73,800 Employment 67,600 68,000 68,900 69,700 70,800 71,100 70,900 71,200 69,800 Unemployed 4,500 4,000 3,900 3,400 4,200 4,100 4,200 3,600 4,000 Rate Labor force 24,000 24,125 24,175 23,950 24,375 24,175 23,925 23,925 24,075 Employment 22,525 22,825 22,925 22,900 23,100 22,875 22,600 22,850 22,825 Unemployed 1,475 1,300 1,250 1,050 1,275 1,300 1,325 1,075 1,250 Rate Van Buren Labor force 35,775 35,875 36,075 35,300 36,125 36,150 35,775 35,675 35,850 Employment 32,900 33,275 33,550 33,300 33,800 33,875 33,625 33,875 33,525 Unemployed 2,900 2,600 2,525 2,000 2,350 2,275 2,150 1,800 2,325 Rate South Central Michigan Labor force 140, , , , , , , , ,200 Employment 131, , , , , , , , ,475 Unemployed 8,700 7,800 7,800 6,600 7,975 7,975 8,350 6,525 7,725 Rate Hillsdale Jackson Lenawee Labor force 20,150 20,125 20,400 20,225 20,825 20,875 20,475 20,300 20,425 Employment 18,825 18,975 19,200 19,225 19,600 19,650 19,200 19,300 19,250 Unemployed 1,325 1,150 1,200 1,000 1,225 1,200 1, ,175 Rate Labor force 72,700 72,700 72,800 72,400 73,800 73,400 73,200 72,400 72,900 Employment 68,200 68,600 68,800 68,900 69,600 69,200 68,800 69,000 68,900 Unemployed 4,500 4,100 4,000 3,400 4,200 4,200 4,400 3,400 4,000 Rate Labor force 47,475 47,750 47,950 47,750 48,650 48,375 47,275 47,500 47,850 Employment 44,550 45,200 45,375 45,600 46,100 45,825 44,600 45,400 45,325 Unemployed 2,900 2,550 2,575 2,150 2,575 2,575 2,675 2,100 2,500 Rate Page 11
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