Sporting Success and College Application Rates

Transcription

1 Allegheny College Allegheny College DSpace Repository Projects by Department or Interdivisional Program Academic Year Sporting Success and College Application Rates Paris, Dante All materials in the Allegheny College DSpace Repository are subject to college policies and Title 17 of the U.S. Code.

2 ECONOMICS 620 Allegheny College Meadville, Pennsylvania Sporting Success and College Application Rates Dante Paris 4/7/2017

3 Sporting Success and College Application Rates Dante Paris Submitted to The Department of Economics Project Advisor: Tomas Nonnenmacher Second Reader: Sickafuse Date: April 7, 2017 I hereby recognize and pledge to fulfill my responsibilities as defined in the Honor Code and to maintain the integrity of both myself and the College as a whole. Dante Paris

4 ii Acknowledgements To my mother and father. Thank you for your endless love and guidance you have given me not only through this project, but in every aspect of my life. Words cannot explain how thankful I am to have you had you both every step providing with me the needed support to where I am today. Never have you stopped being in my corner. You both have made me a better man preparing me for the rest of my life. This paper not only reflects my accomplishments but what you have taught me in this process. Thank you for everything. I love you both more than anything. To roommate and teammate Jon. You were my host on my first football visit and now you are my roommate to finish out our senior year. Thank you for being like a brother and giving me the support I needed to complete this paper. To Professor Nonnenmacher. Thank you for your continued help and guidance the whole year through this lengthy process. All of the help you have given me through our meetings in your office hours and from class helped me finish this project. You have shown what it takes to be successful in producing quality work while managing the rest of my studies, To Professor Sickafuse. You have been my advisor since the first year I transferred and it was the best decision I could have made. Thank you not only for your support through the process of this project, but helping me balance my class schedule while still helping me plan for my future in searching for opportunities after graduation. To everyone that I mentioned above. Thank you for playing a crucial role in helping me finish this project. You are all the reason I was able to get through this process while making it achievable from the beginning to the end. Thank you for everything.

5 iii Table of Contents Acknowledgements List of Figures Abstract ii iv v Chapter 1: Introduction 1 Chapter 2: Theory Background 6 Chapter 3: Case Studies 17 Chapter 4: Empirical Analysis 25 Chapter 5: Conclusion 30 Appendix: Data 34 References 36 About the Author 39

6 iv List of Figures Figure 1: Supply and Demand Curve 6 Figure 2: College Football National Championship Bracket ( season) 8 Figure 3: Athletic Department Revenue 9 Figure 4: Application Patterns After Program Success 14 Figure 5: SAT Statistics Summary of Applications 15 Figure 6: College Applications UCLA vs. BC 17 Figure 7: UCLA Sport Program Revenue 18 Figure 8: ACC Athletic Department Financial Data, Figure 9: March Madness Number of Viewers, Figure 10: BC New Marketing Campaign 22 Figure 11: Wasserman Football Center 24 Figure 12: Mo Ostin Basketball Center 24 Figure 13: Summary Statistics Table 27 Figure 14: Regression Statistics for All Variables 28 Figure 15: Regression on BB and FB Change in Winning % 29

7 v Abstract In an era full of different forms of entertainment, college sports a distinct and powerful market niche. This study examines the effects of successful collegiate football and men s basketball programs on the number of applications received for their respective university. The application data shown in this study are based on the number of applications received in the and academic years with the athletic data based on the and academic years. This list of schools includes 67 of the top Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) schools in Division 1 athletics. The analysis uses multiple variables based on success in each sport to determine whether they have an effect on the change of application rates during a two-year span. A case study of two schools (University of California, Los Angeles and Boston College) illustrates how successful and unsuccessful sports programs can change the number of applications each school received.

8 1 Chapter 1: Introduction College athletics has not only become a profitable industry, but it continues to grow larger and larger as each year passes. Gaining a competitive edge is vastly important as Andy Geiger, former Stanford University athletic director stated The altruistic goal is becoming perverted because the financial reward is so great the money creates an enormous amount of pressure and an educational dichotomy (Goodwin). This growing market has allowed a successful college athletic programs to have an effect on application rates that are received based on previous athletic performance. Specifically, college football and men s basketball being the two biggest sports in the NCAA. According to Harvard Business School Assistant Professor of marketing Doug J. Chung, The primary form of mass media advertising by academic institutions in the United States is, arguably, through their athletic programs (Silverthorne). It s no surprise that sports are one of the biggest forms of entertainment in the world today, especially in relation to the industry of college athletics. All over the country we see how big-time programs in Division 1 athletics affect the revenue that is generated at the end of each fiscal year. According to the data taken from Department of Education on football and men's basketball revenue, there are 20 schools that make at least $100 million in sports, which has increased substantially from 13 years ago. In, the University of Oregon generated the most money at a staggering $196 million in revenue. This consisted of $124.9 million in donations, $35.6 million in licensing/rights fees, $26.6 million in ticket sales, $54 million in a 3-year average football revenue, and $8.7 million in a 3-year average men s basketball revenue. Not to mention that the CEO and founder of Nike, Phil Knight (Oregon alumni) donated more than $300 million to the school (Gaines).

9 2 One of the most dominant football programs in the country, The University of Alabama, has created a dynasty for championships in the last decade. The University of Alabama is one of the highest 3-year revenue for a football programs has an intake at $88.5 million (Gaines). In the sports world, any college football fan or sport enthusiast can associate Alabama as a football powerhouse due to their 4 national championship seasons in 2009, 2011, 2012, and 2015 (School Index). These athletic successes often overshadow the great academic programs. In the case of Alabama, the school is ranked 15 th in the country in both medicine and accounting, while law is ranked 20 th (The University of Alabama) making the school known for sports instead of the great academic programs. Former president of the University of Michigan and author of Intercollegiate Athletics and the American University, James J. Duderstadt, would agree with how athletics have become the face of universities. He stated, Nine of 10 people don t understand what you are saying when you talk about research universities. But you say Michigan and they understand those striped helmets running down under the banner (Pappano). Do sports allow another way for the school to be advertised and be the first line of promotion for incoming students? Professor Chung found that on-field success can help benefit schools by increasing both the quantity and the quality of students they can expect to attract (Silverthorne). These discoveries not only indicate why students attend certain schools but also based on which types of students sport success can attract. Chung s findings included that as a school rises from mediocre to great on the gridiron, applications increase by 18.6 percent (Chung, 6). Students with lower-than-average SAT scores tended to have a stronger preference for schools known for athletic success, while students with higher SAT scores preferred institutions with greater academic quality (Silverthorne). This in-turn allows schools to become more academically

10 3 selective with athletic success which allows the school to bring students of higher academic quality that fit the requirements of the institution. Brand advertising can be very crucial in attracting new students for the start of the next academic semester. Success on the field, creates a general awareness of the school. This concept can be illustrated through the Flutie effect. In 1984 with quarterback Doug Flutie, he threw a last-second Hail Mary pass 48 yards that was caught for a game-winning touchdown in a game against the University of Miami to win the Orange Bowl. This put the college on the map, and applications went up 30 percent in two years (Silverthorne). We have also seen this new type of growth and exposure in the audiences during the time of college football playoffs/bowl games. Every year teams wait around for the selection of not only bowl games but the selection of the 4 teams playing for the FBS National title for college football. With the new change to the College Football Playoff National Championship in 2014 (Sports Index), the top 4 teams in the country based on rankings (1 vs. 4, 2 vs. 3) have the opportunity to play in a separate bowl game first and then the winners play for the National Championship in the next few weeks. It can be noted that games that are televised had one of the largest crowds drawn in from last year s championship final between Clemson and Alabama. According to ESPN College Football writer Derek Volner, The 2016 FBS Championship game was the Most-viewed telecast across all cable networks since last season s National Championship; rematch nearly matches audience from 2016 Tigers-Crimson Tide National Championship matchup. The championship final (January 9 at 8 p.m. ET) delivered a total live audience across the multi-network MegaCast (TV feeds + streaming) of 26,029,000 viewers, which was the most-watched event streamed on a cable network since the 2016 College Football Playoff National Championship (January 11, 2016) between the same two football teams at

11 4 26,709,000 viewers. Networks that broadcasted the game included TV viewership from ESPN s Nielsen-rated networks (ESPN, ESPN2 and ESPNU) and streaming feeds which were part of the MegaCast: SEC Network, ESPNEWS, ESPN Classic and ESPN Goal Line (Volner). This dominant viewing audience for college football through the cable network on just ESPN alone, the game TV viewership drew in a crowd of 24,391,000 viewers, which was the eighth mostwatched cable telecast of all time. In total, ESPN has televised the nine of the most-watched cable telecasts ever, with the College Football Playoff securing each of the top 3 positions (2015 National Championship and both 2015 Semifinals), as well as No. 6 (2016 National Championship) and No. 8 (Volner). As we move on to men s college basketball, the Championship play for this sport is so recognized that it has a whole month named after it, March Madness. Since its creation in March of 1939 (March Madness is born), the event has grown into an interactive way for individuals to fill out brackets and predict each game all the way through the championship final. American business investor and philanthropist, Warren Buffet was bold enough in 2014 (through his company Berkshire Hathaway Inc.) to offer a $1 billion cash prize to any person who perfectly picked each of the 64-team bracket in the NCAA men s basketball tournament (Fields). Unlike the College Football National Playoff, March Madness tournament games are broadcasted over 4 nationally (non-sport specific) televised networks that include TBS, CBS, TNT, and trutv for all 67 games of the tournament play (Maiman). The next chapter demonstrates the theory behind why application/enrollment rates are affected by the success of both college football and (men s) basketball programs. The third chapter is a case study of how applications numbers changed in a two-year period at Boston College and the University of California, Los Angeles due to athletic success in the two sports

12 5 and other factors. Chapter four is an empirical analysis and illustrates the gathering of data and describes how the dependent variable is used in relation to the statistical findings. The final chapter concludes with proposing potential methods of change, policy implications, and further developments of the results.

13 6 Chapter: 2 Theory Background In our modern-day society, there has been a shift in culture that has led to the sports industry being one of the biggest forms of entertainment. Besides the professional sports world, collegiate sports have also been associated with being a large source of income for universities all over the country. The two biggest college sports that are recognized throughout the United States are football and basketball. Not only do successful sports programs affect the influx of money generated for the schools, but they also can have a significant impact on student applications of enrollment for the following year. For example, as shown in figure 1, due to these successful programs (plus considering the basic principles of supply and demand) the demand curve for the number of applications would shift outward due to the winning culture that has been associated with the school in which more students want to participate. Figure 1: Supply and Demand Curve There are different factors besides sports that explain why the demand curve shifts outward which allows for an increasing enrollment for the following year after program success. These factors increasing the number of applications include: reputation, location, academic offerings/perks, sports programs, and the role sports culture.

14 7 Reputation plays a crucial role in effecting applications because it determines the way the sports programs and the university are viewed by the public and most importantly by those who could be potential students. This perception can be translated in terms of criteria that boils down to those big-time programs that everyone know about based on winning and if that team is ranked in the top 25 consistently. Based on the way the new college football playoff system has been put into effect, becoming one of those 4 teams has been a staple for all programs contending to win a national championship. This creation of a playoff system has contributed to the growing excitement to an already booming college football atmosphere. Not only does this competition factor contribute to this but so does the program being known for having a winning dynasty or coach who has been associated as a winner. Take the University of Alabama as an example. If you were to ask a random individual about what the school is known would they say or know that is Alabama s nationally ranked as the #103 best school in United States (in the upcoming 2017 edition Best Colleges is National Universities) or that its school of law and medicine are highly recognized as some of the best in the country (How does university)? They would associate the school with its dynasty of a football that has won 16 national titles and currently four under head coach Nick Saban, who again has his team finishing 1 st in the country and preparing for the second college football national playoffs showing in Figure 2.

15 8 Figure 2: College Football National Championship Bracket ( season) Source: SEC-Power (2016) Big-time coaches like Nick Saban can land top recruits that can help to build a winning program. This can be seen when Urban Meyer s came out of retirement in 2012 to become Ohio State University s new head coach and helped them win their eighth national title in 2014 after finishing 6-7 the year before he took over. Urban Meyer s contract paid him $4 million a year plus bonuses of $250,000 if the team is playing in the B.C.S National Championship game and an extra $150,000 if the graduation rate is over 80 percent (Pappano). The reasoning for why athletics is a great a tool for recruiting students is based on how well programs perform during their seasons, which can result in attracting individuals who want to be part of that school with a successful team, acting as their student fan base. This is evident in the money spent in securing Urban Meyer as the new coach by the university s athletic department because they want to be able to bring in students. Tim Collins, a junior at Ohio State back in 2012, gave his reasoning for choosing Ohio State by stating, It s not something I usually admit to, that I applied to Ohio State 60 percent for the sports. But the more I tell that to people, they ll say it s a big reason why they came, too (Pappano). The success of these powerhouse programs can be seen as the first way of attracting students to attend a university and not about how well-recognized the academic programs are at that school. In regards to this idea, Ohio State physics professor Gordon

16 9 Aubrecht would be in support as he stated in the same article, It s not Oh yeah, Ohio State, that wonderful physics department. It s football. But how beneficial is this revenue intake for universities that allows them to put a certain priority on holding their sports programs (mainly football and basketball) to a certain standard? Does this have an influence on the potential incoming class of students? Figure 3 illustrates that there has been a substantial increase of revenue for universities based on athletics programs in terms of millions of dollars (Hobson and Rich). Figure 3: Athletic Department Revenue Source: Hobson and Ric (2013) Shown from the profit margins for each university, the schools that had a substantial increase from were due to how well each program did in the football season. For example, schools at the top of the list like Alabama, LSU, Ohio State, Florida State, Michigan, Texas,

17 10 Auburn, and Florida accounted for 12 out of the 13 national championships for that 10 year span. Having a great reputation in the sports world as either a continued powerhouse program or that a university s program is on the rise definitely has an adverse effect on the desire for students to be a part of that school for the following year. For example, Florida Gulf Coast University did the near impossible in the 2013 NCAA tournament as a fifteen-seed by upsetting second seed Georgetown and making a run all the way to the sweet sixteen. The following year FGCU President Wilson Bradshaw recognized that a 35.4% increase in freshman applications for the following could have been a result of their Cinderella story run as he stated, Our visibility in basketball certainly didn t hurt We have to acknowledge that (Brennan). The next factor that shifts the number of applications is the location of the university. When we look at the location of Big time universities, each has a different type of characteristic that gives it a certain type of attraction factor for students when making a decision. This can be attributed to the school residing in a big college town, large city, great weather conditions, or nearby attractions. The night life scene that students interact in on the weekends is a huge part of the college experience that everyone wants to participate in. Some of the best college towns in America are at large Division 1 Universities. According to the article Forbes, The Best And Worst College Towns In America, the best towns ranking from 1 to 5 include Ann Arbor, Michigan (University of Michigan), College Station, Texas (University of Texas A&M (Iowa City, Iowa (Iowa State University)), Provo, Utah (Brigham Young University), and Gainesville, Florida (University of Florida). By combining these aspects of great college towns along with highest level of competitive Division 1-A Football Bowl Subdivision teams allow for substantial turn outs for home field support that pack the stadiums on game day. Next, we take a look at weather conditions that could in turn sway the decision for students to attend certain schools.

18 11 Being able to wear shorts and a t-shirt year on a daily basis, plus being able to go to the beach during the winter months can be very appealing to potential students. Schools like Texas A&M and the University of Miami are prime examples of these institutions located in great weather year-round, who have also been known for their powerful football programs and their men s basketball team teams being on the rise. Not only can students enjoy the night life in Florida but they enjoy the weather year-round. Director of Admissions Deanna Voss notes that, Students don't even need to venture off campus for an exotic experience We have such a gorgeous campus it's like a tropical garden setting, Voss says. "Students can be sitting outside conversing with each other having these intense academic conversations that don't have to be carried on in the classroom because it's 20 degrees outside (Lytle). In comparison Texas A&M also uses their close proximity to beaches to persuade students. University Director of Communication and Public Affairs Gloria Gallardo states, We are the only university that is on its own island [and] we have our own private beach If you are the type of person who likes surfing or kayaking, you can do them right here on our campus (Lytle). Big cities can also be very instrumental in enticing students to schools. Take for instance the University of Pittsburgh that shares its home field with the Pittsburgh Steelers. This alone works as a plus in the attractions department while at the same time the school is in the heart of the city for new students to enjoy and take in the great atmosphere of Pittsburgh as it was ranked the sixth best college city in America (Dill). The international market is another group of students that schools strive to appeal to in hopes in bringing in more diversity. When Magnus Mootoo, 23, of Trinidad and Tobago was deciding on Florida Institute of Technology (FIT), He says it was primarily the school s academics and strong ocean engineering program but its location, and attractions nearby, didn't hurt We re also located in a central spot in Florida so it s 45 minutes to go to

19 12 Disney and a two-hour trip to Tampa or Miami, so you re centrally located to all the major spots in Florida (Podolsky). Based on these locations if they schools aren t near any big cities or attractions they have focus on offering certain amenities that vary from different universities to entice their potential student body. Academic offerings/perks are another way schools can draw in more students by giving them a different experience compared to other universities they compete with. This is based on not only the different attractions their city offers but also based on the university. Now most schools offer grants and academic/athletic scholarships that help students pay for tuition costs. Outside of this, they will offer other incentives to bring in students and sweeten the deal for them to attend the university. For example, based on Academic programs schools will offer certain devices for students. Long Island University gives out ipad minis to all full-time freshmen and transfer students, Wake Forest University gives new students receive a Lenovo ThinkPad (loaded with a comprehensive suite of software applications and full access to cloud-based tools for use throughout their undergraduate years), and Seton Hall University also provides students with Lenovo ThinkPad ultra-books or Macs loaded with educational software, depending on their academic programs, says Alyssa McCloud, the university VP for enrollment management (Podolsky). Now on other hand, universities can offer to certain perks outside of education programs to set them apart from other schools. According to the article by Doug Podolsky, How Do Schools Market Themselves to Attract Students, school like Davidson College and Tulane University will offer free laundry in residence halls plus a micro fridge, while Northern Colorado will allow students to keep an under 40-pound cat or dog to live in specific dorms (Lawrence Hall). However, in that same article Podolsky discusses certain amenities there are very unique to certain schools that help to separate themselves. Boston University s Student Village has an

20 13 apartment-style energy efficient high-rise featuring a media lounge, and soundproof music practice rooms (plus breathtaking views of the Boston skyline and Charles River). Alongside of academics Baylor switches it up by offering a 53-foot-tall free-standing rock-climbing wall at the McLane Student Life Center (with at least 25 top-rope climbs ranging in difficulty from beginner to advanced climber), while Seton Hall University (being 14 about 14 miles outside of New York City will regularly at no charge take students to see Broadway shows, art exhibits, museums, and other places (Podolsky). Having this type of advantage helps bring in more students along with how successful their men s college basketball and football teams are each year. When understanding collegiate athletics, men s college basketball and football programs stand alone as the biggest revenue generator for most Division 1 universities. The success level of these teams attract more students and increase enrollment rate numbers for the following academic year. Pope and Pope illustrate between both sports what type of impact their program success rate can really have on their perspective universities. Men s college basketball, most known throughout the country every year for its March Madness tournament, is a place where some teams are expected to win a national title, while others hope to win 1 game or be a Cinderella team and make a deep run. Statistical data from Pope and Pope illustrate what kind of impact there will be on applications based on how well a team does is this prestigious tournament. If a team is one of the 64 teams competing they will see about a 1% increase in applications for the following year. Making it further if they are part of the Sweet 16 yields a 3% increase, Final Four a 4-5 increase, and winning the tournament will yield a 7-8% increase in applications (Pope and Pope, 763). The success of football programs will also increase the number of applications for the next year. Besides winning the national championship, which also had a 7-8% increase for football (Pope and Pope, 763), rankings play a crucial part in the

21 14 application effort. Based on the top 25 rankings in the country for both sports, they estimated in this article for football that a program ending the season ranked in the top 20 result ~2.5% increase in application, while the top 10 yields a 3% increase. Now going more into depth with both football and basketball it was also estimated ranging from 2% to 8% increase in these applications for the top 20 football schools and the top 16 basketball schools each year (Pope and Pope, 776). As shown in the figure below from the Pope article (page 763), applications to the schools saw huge increases at the end of each season. Figure 4: Application Patterns After Program Success Source: Pope and Pope (2012) Due to these overly increased rates of applications allows schools to be more selective in the type of students they want attending their university. Many varieties of SAT scores from potential students have been sent in as well. Based on a basketball team win in the NCAA tournament there would be an 18% increase a year later in sent SAT scores less than 900, 12% increase in scores between 900 and 1100, and an 8% increase in scores over 1100 (Pope and Pope, 768). This information can be shown in Figure 5 below from the Pope article illustrating the different

22 15 scores from each section of the examination and for the statistics on private and public institutions (Pope and Pope, 759). Figure 5: SAT Statistics Summary of Applications Source: Pope and Pope (2012) Athletic success does indeed present an opportunity to schools to be either more selective in their admission standards or enroll more students while keeping a fixed level of student quality. When tying all of this information on these basketball and football programs together one must consider, how does it all fit into is this overall theory being generated? In essence sports programs for a university play a monumental role not only advertising the school but promoting it by these different forms of entertainment through their network time when a game is being broadcasted. This in turn helps to increase the overall popularity because now that the viewers are being drawn in from the game being shown, commercials from the university are played during intermissions to give potential students more information regarding the institution, programs, visit dates, etc. Not only do these sports programs help promote the school, but they serve as one of their biggest revenue generators that help keep the school profitable for years to

23 16 come. For example, one of the best basketball teams in the country that are known to stay extremely competitive each year is the Kentucky Wildcats. Based on a CNN money analysis of figures that was filed with the U.S. Department of Education, the team generated $24 million in profits on revenue of about $40 million during the school year (Isidore). This can be generated through tickets, merchandise sales, TV deals, advertisements, etc. There are many more examples of these types of benefits from these twos sports programs all over the country that help to enable a school to further reach out to potential student-athletes and students. Programs with highly visible success rates due to winning seasons help to increase enrollment rates. As a result, due to this influx of students being drawn in, it benefits the university as a whole on its profitability and investments. The next chapter illustrates a case study between two athletic programs that are on different sides of the win/loss column.

24 17 Chapter 3: Case Studies Two schools on the opposite side of the athletic success spectrum are Boston College and the University of California, Los Angeles. The application data shown in this study was based on the number of applications received in the and academic years in relation to the athletic data based on and of the Power 5 conferences in Division1 athletics. These conferences included the Southeastern Conference (SEC), Pacific-12 Conference (Pac-12), Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC), Big 10 Conference (B1G), and the Big 12 Conference. Based on the data from Figure 6, over the two years studied, UCLA had the most positive correlation. In accordance to their success in both of their programs football and basketball their number in applications increased by 13,861. However, Boston College had the complete opposite effect as the school had the most negative correlation of the conferences due to both of their programs in the same sports having losing records each year. Shown in the same figure, Boston College is seen to have a decrease of 1,315 applications. Figure 6: College Applications UCLA vs. BC

25 18 When looking at the UCLA football team, it s no surprise that the application increase over the past few years can be attributed to the success the Bruins have had on the field. During the fiscal year, the athletic department saw a $10 million increase in revenue where the total balanced budget in revenue went from $86.43 million (during the year) to $96.61million. It was also reported that as the prime-money making sport (that generates 46% of the department total revenue) for UCLA, the football team generated $30.35 million (in ) that increased to $44.73 million for the following year (Kaufman). It really is the nature for football team to be a large contributor to revenue not only due to merchandise sales but the fact that stadiums have the ability to hold larger audiences than any other sports on a college campus. This larger revenue increase can also be attributed to the team being one of two sports (basketball) that saw their revenue margins exceed expenses, as shown in Figure 7 below for the fiscal year. The chart illustrates that each of the women s sports programs combined accounted for $6.19 million in revenue that did not surpass the total expenses of $18.51million. Figure 7: UCLA Sport Program Revenue Over the course of the and the athletic years the UCLA football program improved making themselves relevant against other winning teams. This started with

26 19 the 2012 season where the team went 9-5, earning a place in the Holiday Bowl. During the 2013 season they surpassed that year with a record of 10-3 which earned a spot in the Sun Bowl leading to their first bowl victory since 2009 (School Index). The opposite outcome can be seen for Boston College as the program has been on the decline, being virtually non-existent as a formidable team. The Eagles have struggled to be recognized like the team that boosted them to prominence with Doug Flutie s game winning Hail Mary in 1984 against the University of Miami, the defending national champion. A key member of that 1984 team who has been a major supporter of BC athletics, Scott Gieselman voiced his frustrations as he said It doesn t feel like there s a real strategy in place or a real fundamental focus on creating an athletic platform at Boston College that is superlative That s how you end up in mediocrity, which is where we are today (Hohler). Figure 8 illustrates the financial data for the ACC in total revenue and profit margins for each institution s athletic departments (Weinherimer). Figure 8: ACC Athletic Department Financial Data, Source: Weinheimer (2016)

27 20 The zero-profit margin illustrates an area of concern for the administrators of Boston College because the once prominent programs of basketball and football were the Eagles biggest drivers of revenue. Much of this decline has continued to grow, negatively affecting those margins. This trend can be attributed to home football game attendance dropping to its lowest point in 25 years, mainly because season ticket sales have plunged by more than 60 percent since the Eagles joined the ACC. By continuing to have seasons like in at 2-10 and in finishing 7-6 with a loss in the AdvocareV100 bowl the program will never be taken seriously in the conference (School Index). Heroics like Flutie s last-gasp heave in the Orange Bowl against Miami helped put the university on track to be a part of one of the nation s richest sports leagues, the Atlantic Coast Conference, and accumulated an endowment of $2.2 billion following this performance (Hohler). On the basketball side, UCLA has maintained its upward trajectory as the Bruins posted back to back winning seasons as they had more than 20 wins in and Having these successful regular seasons translated into the post season as they earned trips to the NCAA tournament each year with a sweet sixteen appearance in 2013 tournament (School Index). Shown in Figure 7, the school generated $12.22 million in revenue during the year, and $12.17 million the previous year, illustrating the team has continuously increased their value based on winning (Kaufman). This continued success has helped pave the way in terms making their team relevant alongside the university s successful football programs. Although UCLA has continued this success of winning in both sports, Boston College has done the same except on the losing side. Boston College Athletic Director, Brad Bates has acknowledged this losing culture as he stated The reality in college sports is that you have to win in football and basketball, and in both those sports we ve just had terrible seasons (Hohler).

28 21 The basketball team has continuous losing seasons including in season and 8-24 in , where their last NCAA tournament appearance hasn t occurred since 2009 (School Index). Figure 9 below illustrates the number of viewers for March Madness from the 2015 tournament. The farther your team makes it, the more the school will be noticed which plays a huge role in promoting the school through the team s success. Figure 9: March Madness Number of Viewers, 2015 In terms of marketing athletics Boston College wants to get more of an awareness for their team in a sense take back their city in getting the support they need for the different sporting contests for the upcoming year. The campaign will be done through using street teams throughout different neighborhoods to help re-establish the college into the fabric of the city by reaching out to people who have been to less than athletic event a year (Rubin). Also by having the Eagles Sport Icons with iconic figures and moments in relation the historic city, such as adding to mascots like Paul Revere and Samuel Adams (Boston s College). Shown in Figure 10,

29 22 the mascots give historical reference to the great the past of American history infused with the athletic programs. Figure 10: BC New Marketing Campaign Source: Boston s College Campaign Adds New Street Teams Members (2016) However, in cases with winning sports team as with UCLA, the marketing aspect can be approached to the school by an outside source. In 2015 Nissan launched a campaign to affiliate their marketing campaign to successful athletic programs, which was based on backing 100 specific colleges and universities as well as select NCAA championships and covering 22 sports based on athletic success. Jeremy Tucker, Vice President of marketing communications and media for Nissan explained the company s reasoning for the selection of certain schools by stating, The 100 schools covered are spread across the country and range from athletic icons such as Ohio State, Oklahoma, Alabama and UCLA to North Carolina Agricultural and Technical State, Hampton and Yale (Buss). Having the success on the field attracts marketing campaigns that not only advertise that company but in turn promotes the school as well. Athletic success in large part plays a monumental role in affecting applications received. Students and the community want to have a sense of pride when they watch their teams

30 23 especially in two of the biggest sports like football and basketball. However, looking towards the future can be very beneficial in making sure success in sports is continued. As with a school like UCLA who has had winning programs in basketball and football, the need to continue success can be fueled by large donations that can be used to help benefit teams. The Centennial Campaign started by the UCLA athletics department in 2013 runs through 2019, but by 2016 the school had already raised $200 million in donations (UCLA Athletics). The success of this campaign is critical to the future of UCLA and UCLA Athletics," said Director of Athletics Dan Guerrero. "With more than $200 million in giving, the support we've received thus far has been overwhelming. From the increase in student-athletes making the Director's Honor Roll due to additional investment in academic programs and mentoring to the two newest facilities taking shape on the southwest side of campus, in real time, we are witnessing philanthropy make a lasting impact on the lives of current and future generations of Bruins (UCLA Athletics). As shown in Figures 11 and 12, the facilities that are being constructed for the uses of the football and basketball programs will be beneficial in providing an advantageous training atmosphere for future generations of successful UCLA athletes. This type of investment is necessary for the growth of any program interested in future athletic success.

31 24 Figure 11 Wasserman Football Center Figure 12: Mo Ostin Basketball Center Source: UCLA Athletics Within $60 Million of Centennial Campaign Goal (2016)

32 25 Chapter 4: Empirical Analysis This chapter gathers and analyzes data to answer the main question in relation to success of high level Division 1 football and men s basketball programs on the number of applications a school will receive. The data used is based on the collection of the Power 5 Conferences in collegiate athletics consisting of the SEC, ACC, Big Ten, Pac-12, and Big 12 with one school that is an independent (Notre Dame). The 2-year period being studied are the academic years of and Compared to the and athletic years. Overall, while on a case to case basis athletic success does have an impact on application rates. My statistical analysis does not find a significant correlation between sporting success and applications. In this section, I ran a regression to determine the impact of athletic success on the number of applications received. Each school first had its win percentage calculated through its record (by dividing the total number of wins by the number of total games played) in the 2-year span for each sport. These then can be illustrated as BB (Basketball) Change in Win % and FB (Football) Change in Win% which was calculated by finding the average of the win percentage between both years. The next set of independent variables are dummy variables related to postseason success. The first variable was the FB Conference Championship, where the team received a 1 was if they won the conference championship for that year or a 0 if they lost. The second variable was FB Bowl Win, which was if the team won a bowl game they were given a 1 and if they didn t make or lost that bowl game they received 0. The next variable Top 4 Ranking FB, was if the team finished the end of that season in the top 4 in the country for the sport they received a 1 or if they weren t in the Top 4 they received a 0. The last variable FB NAT CHAMP, related to if the team won the national championship they received a 1, if they lost the

33 26 championship game or failed to make it there they were given a 0. The second set of independent variables correlated with the success of the institutions basketball teams. The first variable used was BB Make Tourney, which was if the team made the 64 team NCAA Tournament (known as March Madness) received a 1, if the team didn t they were given a 0. The second variable BB Sweet Sixteen, went a step further as the team was given a 1 if they made it to the last 16 teams left in the tournament or received a 0 if they weren t part of that grouping. The next variable again went a step further of the previous one, if the team was part of the last 4 teams in the tournament (Final Four) they were given a 1 or a 0 if they weren t in that set of teams. The last variable was BB. NAT. CHAMP for if the team won the championship game for that year they were given a 1 and if they didn t make it to the championship or lost received a 0. A separate independent variable just for comparison of the results, Index of Sporting Success (shown in the Appendix) sums up these dummy variables and illustrates which teams had the most success overall in both sports. The regression used in find the overall significance to determine if there was a correlation of athletic success to the change in application rates were from the year. The first regression was: Change in Apps=FB CONF. CHAMP , FB BOWL WIN , FB NAT. CHAMP , TOP 4 RANKING FB , BB SWEET SIXTEEN , FINAL FOUR , BB NAT. CHAMP When running, different regressions based on different the variable sets, this regression shown above had the best results taken. Figure 13 illustrates the summary statistics for the data collected. As shown in Figure 14 below the results illustrate the statistical insignificance for the regression. By first taking each variable in regards to its P-value, Coefficient, and the R Square value for the entire regression will help interpret the data to its full extent. Looking at the first variable, FB CONF. CHAMP , it

34 27 was assumed that assumed that the variable would be 87.3% significant when looking at the P- value. However, looking at the coefficient after the results for regression were depicted, the variable affected the dependent variable by 1.4%. The second variable, FB BOWL WIN , had a P-value of 45.3% whereas the coefficient was actually negative at 2.55%. The third variable, FB NAT. CHAMP , had a P-value of 98% but the coefficient for the variable ended up being negative as well at -3.8%. The fourth variable BB SWEET SIXTEEN had a P-value of 95.1% where the coefficient was 3.5%. The fifth independent variable, BB NAT. CHAMP actually had the biggest effect on the dependent variable by having a coefficient of 5.71%. For the sixth variable, BB MAKE TOURNEY , had a P-value of 44.2% and a coefficient of 3.23% (also being one of the highest). The seventh variable, FINAL FOUR , was assumed to be 70.9% statistically but as shown in its coefficient its value was negative -2.94%. For the last variable, TOP 4 RANKING FB , its P-value was assumed have certainty of 65% that it would be statistically significant. However, the coefficient that resulted actually had the worst percentage to have an effect on the dependent variable at %. Finally, when looking at the R Square to show it illustrates that this entire regression only effected the change in applications by 4.73%. This regression helped depict how statistically insignificant success in athletics had on the number of applications. Figure 13: Summary Statistics Table

35 28 Figure 14: Regression Statistics for All Variables SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R R Square Adjusted R Square Standard Error Observations 66 ANOVA df SS MS F Significance F Regression Residual Total Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0% Intercept FB CONF. CHAMP FB BOWL WIN FB NAT. CHAMP BB SWEET SIXTEEN BB NAT. CHAMP BB MAKE TOURNEY FINAL FOUR TOP 4 RANKING FB The second regression was used to show if just the changing in winning percentage between men s basketball and football really had an effect on the dependent variable. Shown in Figure 15, the regression used was: CHANGE IN APPS= BB CHANGE IN WIN %, FB CHANGE WIN %. As in the first equation the P-value, Coefficients, R-Square were observed to interpret the findings of the regression. Looking at the P-value for the first variable, BB CHANGE IN WIN % was assumed to be 92.6% statistically significant but its Coefficient illustrated it only effected the dependent variable 1.24% singularly. For the other independent, FB CHANGE WIN %, its P-value was 73.3% while its Coefficient was 2.58%. When looking at the R Square it can be determined from the whole regression that the changing in winning percentage for both sports had an extremely low effect on the change in applications by 0.19%.

36 29 Figure 15: Regression on BB and FB Change in Winning % SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R R Square Adjusted R Square Standard Error Observations 66 ANOVA df SS MS F Significance F Regression Residual Total Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0% Intercept E BB change FB change In this Chapter, we analyzed the data through the different regressions on statistically what type of effect each variable discussed singularly and as a whole on the change in applications a school would receive based on athletic success. There were many difficulties that went into running these regressions because certain combinations yielded many negative results. The regressions with the different independent variables shown above had the highest percentages of effecting the dependent variable. The overall understanding from the data illustrates that statistically athletic success doesn t have a large effect on the number applications a school would receive based on the success from the previous year in both sports.

37 30 Chapter 5: Conclusion The main question in this paper is whether the success of Division 1 collegiate football and men s basketball affects the number of applications. This argument was tested through theories from outside scholarly references (scholarly/non-scholarly), case studies, and empirical analysis. Overall, I found no strong correlation between athletic success and the application rate. However, on a case by case basis there is proof to believe that successful play on a basketball court and football field can attract incoming students for the next academic year. There is this constant need for success as Rutgers Athletic Director Julie Hermann stated, This is a competitive race among some of the biggest universities in this country to compete and achieve at the highest level (Worthington). Athletic success doesn t have a monumental impact on getting application rates but it can help. Athletic success can be quite beneficial in securing large donations, increased profit margins, attracting new ways to market the school, etc. In contrast to the Pope and Pope Article, my results were different from their findings. Compared to my data, they were able to access licensed data sets they purchased from the Thomas Corporation, a company that publishes the well-known Peterson Guide to Four Year Colleges containing detailed college-level data (Pope and Pope, 757). Since they had more indepth data they were able to extrapolate stronger correlations. Along with that unique data set, they also used summary statistics and SAT databases to provide stronger analysis tools that were not available to me in the use of my regressions (Pope and Pope, 758). Although on a case by case basis I was able to show a correlation between sporting success and application rates, Pope and Pope were able to find more conclusive results because of their access to more analysis/regression tools and data sets.

38 31 Through this paper, I had difficulty in researching the different trends along the lines of applications schools received on a year by year basis. This was also due to in part to the information being very selective and that different sources contained varying numbers. Much of the research involved going through different databases to determine if the application numbers correlated with the applications. It was also difficult running the regression because finding the right type of variables to affect the dependent variable in the largest way was problematic. This meant constant regressions of mixing and matching different variables until it yielded results at their highest potential possible. Another large difficulty from this project was creating my own index to be used in my regression to test different areas of significance in sporting success against the change in applications for the multiple teams who are in the top conferences at the Division 1 level. Based on my experience with the topic of this project, I recommend anyone pursuing the same study rely on using one database as I used in finding the varying application rates. Using multiple sources with different numbers will make the process extremely more problematic to compare and correlate data regression. Another piece of advice (if doing a case study) would be to focus on schools that showed the greatest impact in application rates based on how successful programs performed in the previous. This was very beneficial because the correlation was made immensely less challenging. It would have been easier if I used data from fewer conferences because the results were being skewed as the regression analysis due to the different outliers. The one large question that colleges need to address is if they should invest a significant amount of money in sports to improve application rates. From my research, I have concluded that there should be an emphasis placed on holding athletics to the highest possible standard due to its role in affecting applications. In today s environment, college athletics have become a large

39 32 part of the everyday American culture. The revenue generated from ticket sales, donations, and network deals not only affects the athletic departments but helps the school financially as well. When students are looking at attending large schools they don t just see the academics, they also see the athletic side that has been transformed into the college life on campuses. It s become so important on the college campus that it s one of the only ways the student body knows how to come together, said Allen Sack, president-elect of the Drake Group, a faculty network that lobbies for academic integrity in college sports. In China and other parts of the world, there is no gigantic stadiums in the middle of campus. There is a laser focus on education as being the major thing. In the United States, we play football (Pappano). Based on different school rivalries and how big some games can be when one school hosts the national champion or a top ranked team allow for so many different ramifications of the effects on campus. There have been cases where classes will be cancelled to attend a sporting event. A perfect example can be seen with the University of Tennessee where the school cancelled classes on the day of their home-opener for football on September 1 st of 2015 that also happen to be the first game of the college football season. Athletic Director Dave Hart believed the decision to be necessary in accommodating traffic, parking, and security on the day of the game. He addressed this matter more in depth in a public statement before the game by stating: I believe that everyone involved in the ongoing collaboration that led to this logistical conclusion feels good about the fact that we were able to meet our collective priority to not interrupt the academic schedule on that Thursday," he said in the statement. "We look forward to the exciting opportunity to represent our conference on the SEC Network to open the 2016 season on the first night in September. (Knoxville).

40 33 Overall, my results show that success at the Division 1 level in college football and men s basketball doesn t have a significant impact on the change in applications. However, based on certain schools it can noted that there is sometime type of correlation on case by case basis that demonstrates sporting success can make an impact on a school s application rates. College sports like basketball and football not only have become engrained in college life but in society as a whole.

41 34 Appendix Impact of Sporting Success in Division One of College Football and Men s Basketball on College Application Rates Data

42 35 Impact of Sporting Success in Division One of College Football and Men s Basketball on College Application Rates Data (cont d)

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46 39 About the Author My name is Dante Paris. I am from Rochester, New York. I transferred to Allegheny College after my sophomore year at SUNY Brockport. During my time at Allegheny I have been fortunate enough to continue my athletic career as a member of the football program and serving as the Director of Football Operations. The best decision I made in my college career was continuing my education at Allegheny College. This great institution has helped me plan and further my career objectives in scouting and Football operations through the NFL Internship I secured during the summer of Upon graduation I plan to continue looking for positions within the NFL industry or finding a Graduate assistantship at another University. I am excited to see where my Economics degree from Allegheny College will take me in my future career aspirations.