Israel-Hizbullah War, 201?

Transcription

1 Israel-Hizbullah War, 201? A matrix game scenario, developed by Rex Brynen, Tom Mouat, and the Dstl wargaming team using MaGCK: The Matrix Game Construction Kit.

2 ISRAEL-HIZBULLAH WAR, 201? 2 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1.0 INTRODUCTION COMPONENTS AND SET-UP GAME PHASES ACTORS PREWAR GAME Military Actions During the Prewar Game The End of the Prewar Game WARTIME GAME Reinforcements Movement During the Wartime Game Combat During the Wartime Game Collateral Damage United Nations Security Council Ceasefire 11

3 ISRAEL-HIZBULLAH WAR, 201? INTRODUCTION Israel-Hizbullah War is an examination of a near-future conflict between Israel and the Lebanese Shiite militia Hizbullah. The game involves three sets of actors: Israel, Hizbullah, and the government of Lebanon. Israel and Lebanon will also control the movement of civilians within their countries. While each of these can be played as a single individual, they are best played by teams of 2-3 players each. The scenario was first developed during a workshop on matrix game design held at the UK Defence Science and Technology Laboratory in July 2017, and was intended to demonstrate how matrix game techniques can be used to explore complex conflicts involving innovative and adaptive adversaries and a broader range of stakeholders. The game topic was selected by Rex Brynen (McGill University), and the game design in no way represents the official position or perspective of the UK government. The scenario was later refined with the assistance of students from the POLI 640 graduate seminar on Middle East politics at McGill University. With the exception of the game map, all game materials can be assembled using MaGCK (the Matrix Game Construction kit), and game procedures are drawn from those suggested in the MaGCK User Guide. For more information on MaGCK, visit the resource page at PAXsims: A game map can be downloaded from PAXsims, and printed in large format. The game is played using standard matrix game rules as outlined in the MaGCK User Guide. We recommend use of the weighted probabilities system of game adjudication (Section 2.2, MaGCK User Guide). Spendable bonuses (Section 2.5, MaGCK User Guide) can be used to purchase bonus ACTIONs as well as being used to modify dice rolls. We recommend using the SCRUD system for combat resolution (Section 6.1, MaGCK User Guide) for major combat during the latter half of the game. Keep in mind that flexibility is key to successful matrix gaming, and players should feel free to modify procedures as necessary. 2.0 COMPONENTS AND SET-UP The game uses units (consisting of coloured tokens + the appropriate stickers), support tracks (use the 0-10 mats contained within MaGCK, plus an appropriate marker), and modifier tracks (use the +3 to -3 mats contained within MaGCK, plus an appropriate marker). The game map depicts Lebanon and northern Israel, and is subdivided into zones for purposes of movement and combat. Once the war has started, a 0-10 mat should be used to record the number of wartime game turns. There is no need to track prewar turns.

4 ISRAEL-HIZBULLAH WAR, 201? 4 Israel (blue tokens): Place the following in any Israeli border zone (or off the coast, in the case of the naval unit): 3 armour 1 mechanized infantry 1 artillery 1 air 1 UAV 1 gunboat 1 police 1 medical Place Israeli reserve units in the appropriate holding box on that display. In addition, Israel has the following bonuses, which are placed on the spendable bonuses sheet: 2 ISR. Set the Israel political support track at 6/10. Set modifier track as +2 for US support, +1 missile defence. Smaller blue disks will be used to indicate damage to units. Hizbullah (yellow tokens): Place one militia in each of the following areas: southern Beirut each Lebanese border zone Baalbek Set aside another 12 militia as Hizbullah reserves. Since militia units can be upgraded during the game (representing Hizbullah units calling up reserves, using prepared positions, and accessing additional war-fighting stocks), it is convenient to have the reverse of each militia unit marked as regulars. In addition, Hizbullah has the following bonuses, which are placed on the spendable bonuses sheet: 2 fortification

5 ISRAEL-HIZBULLAH WAR, 201? 5 2 camouflage/concealment/deception 1 motivation/morale Set the Hizbullah political support track at 8/10. Set the Hizbullah modifier track at +3 for short-range missiles, +1 for medium-range missiles, and 0 for long-range missiles. Smaller yellow disks will be used to indicate damage to units. Lebanon (green tokens): Place units as follows: 1 infantry, 1 fire-fighter, 1 medical, 2 religious leaders in Beirut 2 infantry elsewhere Set the Lebanese government political support track at 5/10. Set the Lebanon modifier track at 0 for the international community, -1 for Arab countries. Smaller green disks will be used to indicate damage to units. Shuffle and place the Lebanese factions cards face-down near the Lebanese player. Civilians and Neutrals (white tokens): Place two blank white tokens in each Beirut district, Tripoli, Baalbek, Zahle, Sidon, and Tyre, and the two westernmost Israeli zones. Place one white token in every other zone. These represent civilians if you do not have enough white tokens, any agreed marker will do. Place 1 media in West Beirut, 1 UN observers (UNIFIL) in each Lebanese border zone, 1 (Palestinian/UNRWA) refugee camp in each of south Beirut, Sidon, and Tyre. In addition, prepare several black destruction tokens (using, for example, the images for fighting or ruins). Shuffle and face the event and narrative cards face-down near the map.

6 ISRAEL-HIZBULLAH WAR, 201? GAME PHASES Israel-Hizbullah War has two main sub-games. The first, the pre-war game, continues until one player decides to initiate major hostilities, or until the second Border Clash event card is drawn. The second phase is the wartime game, and it continues until the game ends with a ceasefire. 4.0 ACTORS As noted earlier, three sets of actors are represented in Israel-Hizbullah War: Israel (ideally, a 2-3 player team) Hizbullah (ideally, a 2-player team) Lebanese government and factions (ideally a 2-player team) During the first (prewar) part of the game, Israel and Hizbullah are permitted one ACTION per turn. This may be a limited kinetic action (such as a raid or terror attack or assassination, or a intelligence/political/diplomatic/economic action. The Lebanese government/factions actor is normally allowed only one ACTION in total during the pre-war game, and this should represent something that would enjoy broad Lebanese support. The Lebanese government/faction actor may get a second ACTION when the first Border Clash card is drawn. Once the second (wartime) part of the game begins, Israel and Hizbullah are permitted two ACTIONs per turn, one military/kinetic, and one intelligence/political/diplomatic/economic. Because of this, these actors are best played by 2 (or more players), with one assigned to each role. The Lebanese government and factions player has one ACTION per turn during turn, but must draw from the Lebanese Factions deck to determine who they will represent that turn. Optionally, a fourth player or team can be added as Fog, Friction, and The Law of Intended Consequences (MaGCK User Guide, Section 8.0). 5.0 PREWAR GAME Game play takes place in the following sequence: Draw Event Card Israel (limited military or intelligence/political/diplomatic/economic) Hizbullah (limited military or intelligence/political/diplomatic/economic) Lebanon (only one action in total during this phase, plus in response to Border Clash event card) Fog, Friction, and The Law of Intended Consequences (optional)

7 ISRAEL-HIZBULLAH WAR, 201? 7 Players may argue for spendable capability bonuses. Each should be described by a single associated keyword, such as air defences or naval or special tactics. Major success provides 2 bonuses, overwhelming success provides 3. Any bonuses that are obtained should be placed in an appropriate box on that player s bonus sheet, marking it as necessary. Players may also argue to raise or lower a score on a modifier track. This requires a major success, and hence is best support by one or more spendable bonuses. 5.1 Military Actions During the Prewar Game Most limited military ACTIONs during the prewar game, such as assassinations, interdictions of weapons shipments, or terrorism, are best resolved as regular matrix arguments. In some cases, however, it might be appropriate to use SCRUD instead. Note that Israel and Hizbullah may call up reinforcements during the prewar phase, as noted on their briefing sheets. 5.2 The End of the Prewar Game A player may choose to take a major military action, such as conducting a major cross-border attack. Initiating major military operations shifts the game into the Wartime Game. The player who does so loses 2 political support points for doing so, or 1 point if responding to a limited kinetic action by the other player in their previous turn. The Wartime Game begins automatically and immediately once the second Border Clash event card is drawn. Starting with the player than initiated the war, continue using the wartime turn sequence below. 6.0 WARTIME GAME Game play takes place in the following sequence: Draw Narrative Card Israel (military) o reinforcements o free movement o ACTION or additional movement o optional ground combat o optional air attacks against civilian infrastructure o rocket-hunting Hizbullah (military) o reinforcements o free movement o ACTION or additional movement

8 ISRAEL-HIZBULLAH WAR, 201? 8 o optional ground combat o optional rocket attacks against civilian infrastructure Israel (non-military political, diplomatic, economic, intelligence) Hizbullah (non-military political, diplomatic, economic, intelligence) Lebanon (draw faction card to determine role) Fog, Friction, and The Law of Intended Consequences (optional) The narrative card simply provides an image. The first player that turn who successfully incorporates the image into an argument might be granted a +1 dice roll modifier, provided a majority of players agree than the linkage is significant and makes sense. 6.1 Reinforcements Any reinforcements received by a player are noted on their briefing sheet, together with any points costs or delays associated with these. Of the various Lebanese factions, only Amal is likely to mobilize militia forces to assist Hizbullah. If it does so, it must do so as an ACTION. Any such forces should be placed in a Shiite area, and are thereafter under the control of the Hizbullah player. 6.2 Movement During the Wartime Game Israel may move any unit(s) in an unoccupied area (that is, not containing Hizbullah of Lebanese military units) into any adjacent area(s) without expending an ACTION. It may also place aircraft in close air support of troops. Any and all other movement would require a single military ACTION, representing the demands of complex military actions on C3 (command, control, communications) capabilities. This ACTION is usually automatically successful, unless it involves highly unusual activities. Hizbullah may move any regular unit(s) in an unoccupied area (that is, not containing Israeli military units) into any adjacent area(s) for free. Any and all other movement (including any movement by militia units) would require a military ACTION. Any military movement by Lebanon must be part of an ACTION. During their (non-kinetic) turns, Israel and Lebanon may also activate one civilian. This involve either replacing a (plain white) civilian marker with a refugee marker, or moving a refugee marker into an adjacent zone (towards Beirut or off the southern edge of the map). Refugees may not cross borders. This single activation is free, and does not require an ACTION. If additional refugee activations are desired in a turn, these must be achieved through a successful ACTION.

9 ISRAEL-HIZBULLAH WAR, 201? Combat During the Wartime Game All ground combat units in the same zone may (but is not required to) conduct a single round of SCRUD combat. This does not cost an action. The currently phasing player may choose to conduct a second round of combat if they have more military units in the zone than their opponent. SCRUD combat modifiers are as follows: IDF armor or mechanized infantry: +2 IDF infantry or paratroops: +1 IDF artillery (defending); Hizbullah; Lebanese regulars: 0 Hizbullah or other militia: -1 Police -2 When attacking, artillery provide a +1 indirect fire die roll modifier to any one friendly unit in the same or adjacent zone. Aircraft and helicopters committed to close air support provide a +1 close air support die roll modifier to any one friendly unit in the same zone. Note that no more than one indirect fire and one air support bonus may be applied in support of any one ground unit. Each hit places a hit marker (small round disk of appropriate colour). IDF units may retreat to an adjacent zone unoccupied by enemy units instead of taking hit. IDF units are withdrawn from fighting upon receiving three hits. Lebanese and Hizbullah units are destroyed upon taking 2 hits. 6.4 Rocket Hunting The IDF player may, at the end of their combat phase, go hunting for Hizbullah rocketlaunchers. Roll a d6: if this number is equal to or less than the total number of Lebanese border zones solely occupied by IDF forces, reduce Hizbullah s short-range rocket score by 1 (but do not reduce it below zero in this way). Then roll another d6: if this number is equal to or less than the total number of Lebanese non-border zones solely occupied by IDF forces, reduce Hizbullah s medium-range rocket score by 1 (but do not reduce it below zero in this way). 6.4 Collateral Damage Whenever a military action takes place in an area, calculate the amount of collateral damage points by adding the calculating the population density (civilians + refugees + refugee camps +1) in the zone, and multiplying by the number of 1s rolled in SCRUD combat or a matrix argument.

10 ISRAEL-HIZBULLAH WAR, 201? 10 If artillery or aircraft were used in support of unit that rolled a 1, count this as an additional 1 for each supporting unit, underscoring the danger of indirect fire and close air support in with high population density. Add 1 Destruction marker for every 4 points scored. Number of 1s rolled Population Density 1 Population Density = 1+civilians+refugees+refugee camps Population Density 2 Population Density 3 Population Density Destruction 0 Destruction 0 Destruction 0 Destruction 1 0 Destruction 0 Destruction 0 Destruction 1 Destruction 2 0 Destruction 1 Destruction 1 Destruction 2 Destruction 3 0 Destruction 1 Destruction 2 Destruction 3 Destruction 4 1 Destruction 2 Destruction 3 Destruction 4 Destruction 5 1 Destruction 2 Destruction 3 Destruction 5 Destruction Collateral damage may also be inflicted as a deliberate outcome of an ACTION, or as the unintended consequence of major or overwhelming failure. 6.5 Hizbullah Rocket Fire and Israeli Air Attacks Israel and Hizbullah may choose to conduct widespread attacks on civilian infrastructure during their military turn. If so, this is a free action, and does not require an ACTION to execute. Israel: Designate a target zone, and total the number of aircraft available for this purpose (that is, not used for other purposes) this turn. Roll this number of dice. If any 1s result, consult the collateral damage chart and apply the result in the designated zone. Intelligence bonuses may be spent to increase the number of dice rolled (1 per bonus spent). Hizbullah: Designate a target zone, and total the value of the short, medium, and long-range rocket modifiers, and subtract the value of Israeli missile defences. Roll this number of dice. If any 1s result, consult the collateral damage chart and apply the result in the designated zone. Intelligence bonuses may be spent to increase the number of dice rolled (1 per bonus spent).

11 ISRAEL-HIZBULLAH WAR, 201? United Nations Security Council Proposing a United Nations Security Council Resolution requires a successful ACTION, applying any modifier that player might have for US, Arab, or international support. As an ACTION, Israel may attempt to have the US veto the resolution, applying any US modifier it might have. Finally, another successful ACTION is required for the resolution to pass. A successful UN Security Council ceasefire resolution has the effect of reducing a player s political support track by one each time they undertake a kinetic ACTION, until all sides agree to a ceasefire. Players are welcome to detail the contents of the ceasefire resolution. 6.6 Ceasefire The Wartime Game ends when Hizbullah or Israel political support reaches 0, and they are forced to seek a ceasefire. If Lebanese political support reaches 0, the country falls into chaos and both Israel and Hizbullah lose. The game may also end at any point by mutual agreement between Israel and Hizbullah. If there is no ceasefire by Turn 10 of the war, Israel, Hizbullah, and Lebanon each roll d6 at the start of each subsequent game turn: 5-6: political support remains high 1-4: the public wearies of the conflict, subtract 1 from the political support track 7.0 VICTORY When the game ends, Israel and Hizbullah may each make two matrix arguments (one military, the other non-military) as why they have one the game. Resolve these as you would actions, providing a political support point for a successful argument. Extra points should be received for major or overwhelming successes, and points most for major or overwhelming failures. Lebanon may then make one such argument. The player with the highest adjusted political support point total is the winner.

12 ISRAEL-HIZBULLAH WAR, 201? 12 Hizbullah PREWAR May conduct one non-kinetic action, or one limited kinetic action (terror attack, abduction, raid, etc). As an ACTION, Hizbullah may also mobilize or upgrade up to three militia forces during the prewar game, at a cost of 1 political support point each. This ACTION is automatically successful. WARTIME Each turn starting on Turn 2, gain 1 militia in any Shiite zone (marked with a Hizbullah flag) unoccupied by Israel, and upgrade 1 existing militia to regular. POPULAR STEADFASTNESS If there is no ceasefire by Turn 10 of the war, roll d6 at the start of each subsequent game turn: 5-6: political support remains high 1-4: the public wearies of the conflict, subtract 1 from the political support track

13 ISRAEL-HIZBULLAH WAR, 201? 13 PREWAR Israel May conduct one non-kinetic action, or one limited kinetic action (terror attack, abduction, raid). As an ACTION, Israel may mobilize up to three brigades (from any one reserve division) or miscellaneous units during the prewar game, at a cost of 1 political support point each. WARTIME Gain one of the following miscellaneous units each turn, and place it in any Israeli zone: Air/strike (max 4) Transport aircraft Attack helicopter Transport helicopter Corvette Landing craft Police Two additional units may be gained in a turn for a total cost of 1 political support point. Israel may also announce the call up of reserve. Each division mobilized costs 1 political support point, and is available for deployment in any Israeli zone one turn later. 91 st Division (1 armour, 1 mech, 2 infantry, 1 artillery) 210 th Division (1 armour, 2 mech, 1 infantry, 1 artillery) 319 th Division (2 armour, 2 mech, 1 paratroop)

14 ISRAEL-HIZBULLAH WAR, 201? 14 HOME FRONT RESILIENCE If there is no ceasefire by Turn 10 of the war, roll d6 at the start of each subsequent game turn: 5-6: political support remains high 1-4: the public wearies of the conflict, subtract 1 from the political support track

15 ISRAEL-HIZBULLAH WAR, 201? 15 Lebanon PREWAR You may take one ACTION (only) during Prewar Game, and a second ACTION in a turn that the Border Clashes event card is drawn. This action must be taken on behalf of the Lebanese government, representing its common interest. WARTIME Draw a Lebanese Factions card. This determines the constituency the Lebanese player must try to satisfy this turn: Free Patriotic Movement (Christian/March 8 coalition) o Protect Christian areas from destruction o Political support for Hizbullah o Promote ceasefire Amal (Shiite/March 8 coalition) o Political or military support for Hizbullah (may mobilize militia) o Encourage de-escalation of conflict Future Movement (Sunni/March 14 coalition) o Protect Sunni areas from destruction o Undermine Hizbullah and March 8 alliance o Promote ceasefire Lebanese Forces or Phalange (Christian/March 14 coalition) o Protect Christian areas from destruction o Undermine Hizbullah and March 8 alliance o Promote ceasefire Progressive Socialist Party (Druze/neutral) o Protect Druze areas from destruction o Promote ceasefire Lebanese Government o Act in common interest of all Lebanese

16 ISRAEL-HIZBULLAH WAR, 201? 16 Free Patriotic Movement Free Patriotic Movement Amal Movement (Christian/March 8) (Christian/March 8) (Shiite/March 8) Amal Movement Future Movement Future Movement (Shiite/March 8) (Sunni/March 14) (Sunni/March 14) Lebanese Forces Phalange Progressive Socialist Party (Christian/March 14) (Christian/March 14) (Druze/independent)

17 ISRAEL-HIZBULLAH WAR, 201? 17 Lebanon Lebanon Lebanon (National Unity) (National Unity) (National Unity)

18 ISRAEL-HIZBULLAH WAR, 201? 18 High Value Target High Value Target Senior Israeli intelligence official on vacation in Europe. +2 political support for successful assassination Weapons Delivery Senior Hizbullah official located. +1 political support, Hizbullah disruption for successful assassination Weapons Delivery Iran, Syria provide major weapon system. Receive capability unless delivery disrupted. Iran, Syria provide major weapon system. Receive capability unless delivery disrupted.

19 ISRAEL-HIZBULLAH WAR, 201? 19 Combat Llamas Fleeting Opportunity Four-footed capability provides critical edge. +1 to any action by IDF special operation this turn Who dares, wins? +1 to first military action taken by an actor this turn. Posing as Tourist Quiet Times Hizbullah receives +1 to any limited attack within Israel this turn..

20 ISRAEL-HIZBULLAH WAR, 201? 20 Political Pressures Border Clash The population demands action. Conduct limited kinetic action or lose 1 support point. First time drawn: No penalty for launching war this turn. Lebanon may take (extra) ACTION this turn. Second time drawn: war starts. Border Clash Quiet Times First time drawn: No penalty for launching war this turn. Lebanon may take (extra) ACTION this turn. Second time drawn: war starts..

21 ISRAEL-HIZBULLAH WAR, 201? 21 SPENDABLE BONUSES CCD FORTIFICATION MOTIVATION TYPE TYPE TYPE RESERVES

22 ISRAEL-HIZBULLAH WAR, 201? 22 SPENDABLE BONUSES ISR TYPE TYPE TYPE TYPE TYPE TYPE TYPE

23 ISRAEL-HIZBULLAH WAR, 201? 23 RESERVES Northern Command 91 DIV Northern Command 210 DIV 1 support point to mobilize. 1 support point to mobilize. Northern Command 319 DIV Other Assets 1 support point to mobilize. 1 per turn (free) 2 additional (1 support point)

24 ISRAEL-HIZBULLAH WAR, 201? 24 POLITICAL SUPPORT TRACK

25 ISRAEL-HIZBULLAH WAR, 201? 25 Combat Resolution IDF: Armor, Mechanized infantry +2 IDF: Infantry, Paratroops: +1 Hizbullah, Lebanese regulars: 0 Militia: -1 Police -2 Aircraft (close air support): +1 Artillery (1 unit in adjacent zone): +1 Collateral Damage Number of 1s rolled Population Density 1 Population Density = 1+civilians+refugees+refugee camps Population Density 2 Population Density 3 Population Density Destruction 0 Destruction 0 Destruction 0 Destruction 1 0 Destruction 0 Destruction 0 Destruction 1 Destruction 2 0 Destruction 1 Destruction 1 Destruction 2 Destruction 3 0 Destruction 1 Destruction 2 Destruction 3 Destruction 4 1 Destruction 2 Destruction 3 Destruction 4 Destruction 5 1 Destruction 2 Destruction 3 Destruction 5 Destruction