What next for Life Sciences? Vir Lakshman
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1 What next for Life Sciences? Vir Lakshman CEO&CFO Gipfel BioDeutschland Reutlingen, Germany 3 rd December 2015
2 Big pharma is making deals, not drugs FINANCIAL TIMES November, 25th 2015
3 Life Sciences M&A completed deals (US$ bn) Amgen Onyx Pharmaceuticals $9.7 bn Perrigo Elan $8.5 bn Alexion Synageva $8.4 bn Roche InterMune $8.3 bn Gilead Pharmasset $11.0 bn OCT 2015 Pharma Acquirer - Pharma Target Pharma Acquirer - Bio Target Bio Acquirer Source: Thomson One November 2015, KPMG Analysis All rights reserved. The KPMG name, logo and cutting through complexity are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International. 2
4 Life Scienes M&A # of completed deals (by acquirer) OCT 2015 Pharma Acquirer - Pharma Target Pharma Acquirer - Bio Target Bio Acquirer Source: Thomson One November 2015, KPMG Analysis All rights reserved. The KPMG name, logo and cutting through complexity are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International. 3
5 Biotech M&A # of completed deals (by region) Increase in Europe/ASPAC share OCT 2015 Americas Europe ASPAC, Africa Source: Thomson One November 2015, KPMG Analysis All rights reserved. The KPMG name, logo and cutting through complexity are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International. 4
6 Acquisitions of Emerging Therapeutic and R&D Stage companies Number of acquisitions* Deal value in US$ bn (up-front payments only)* Gilead Pharmasset $11 bn Roche InterMune $8.3 bn Preclinical to Phase III Marketed Preclinical to Phase III Marketed * Only deals > US$ 10m Source: Biotechnology Industry Organization June 2015, KPMG Analysis All rights reserved. The KPMG name, logo and cutting through complexity are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International. 5
7 Biotech IPOs on Western Exchanges $ raised & number of IPOs 2,5 Amount raised in US$ billion Count , ,5 1,0 0,5 0, Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q Source: Evaluate Pharma July 2015, KPMG Analysis All rights reserved. The KPMG name, logo and cutting through complexity are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International. 6
8 FDA approvals and projected US$ sales 5 years after launch Prevnar 13 (Pfizer Inc.) Victoza (Novo Nordisk) Prolia/Xgeva (Amgen) Eliquis (BMS/ Pfizer) Stribild (Gilead) Xarelto (J&J / Bayer) Eylea (Regeneron / Bayer) 43 Sovaldi (Gilead) Tecfidera (Biogen) 35 Opdivo (BMY) Harvoni (Gilead) Orkambi (Vertex) Ibrance (Pfizer) EST. Sales 5 years after launch (US$ Bn) 11 No of FDA Approvals * * $11 bn YTD (July), $18.6 bn Potential Biotechnology companies are italicized Source: Evaluate Pharma July 2015, KPMG Analysis All rights reserved. The KPMG name, logo and cutting through complexity are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International. 7
9 Development of regional Life Sciences indices Index (base year 2010 = 100) EM: 171% US: 152% Europe: 141% World: 54% EM: -12% US: -3% Europe: -10% World: -5% 50 01/ / / / / / / / / / /2015 MSCI World Index MSCI Europe Pharma Biotech&Life Sci Index MSCI US Pharma, Biotech&Life Sci Index MSCI Emerging Markets Pharma, Biotech&Life Sci Index Source: Bloomberg November 2015 All rights reserved. The KPMG name, logo and cutting through complexity are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International. 8
10 All rights reserved. The KPMG name, logo and cutting through complexity are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International. 9
11 Value-based pricing reforming Life Sciences FFS VBP FEE FOR SERVICE VALUE-BASED PRICING Traditional volume-based fee-for-service payment Payment for visit Payment for prescription Outcome and patient-centric metrics for payment All-inclusive care packages (e.g. a year of diabetes care) Payment for surgery All rights reserved. The KPMG name, logo and cutting through complexity are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International. 10
12 Value-based pricing in context of The New York State DSRIP DSRIP Delivery System Reform Incentive Payment Transformation of the NYS Medicaid Healthcare Delivery System Improve core population Improve patient outcomes 90% value-based payments by 2020 All rights reserved. The KPMG name, logo and cutting through complexity are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International. 11
13 When is VBP appropriate? FFS VBP Evidence-based, outcome-focused disease management No generic versions Need to differentiate products Reimbursement challenges require innovative pricing strategy All rights reserved. The KPMG name, logo and cutting through complexity are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International. 12
14 VBP needs Real World Evidence All rights reserved. The KPMG name, logo and cutting through complexity are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International. 13
15 Real World Evidence along the Life Sciences value chain REVISITING FAILED DRUGS BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE PERSONALISED MEDECINE 3-D PRINTING Population Discovery and Development Manufacturing Sales & Marketing Patient PRODUCT PERFORMANCE ADVANCED ANALYTICS BETTER TRIAL DESIGN AND ANALYSIS PREVENTIVE MEDECINE All rights reserved. The KPMG name, logo and cutting through complexity are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International. 14
16 Making drugs, and deals Deal drivers Market consolidation Asset swaps Portfolio shifts / optimization Patent cliff Strong valuations Geographic expansion Cheap funding Tax inversion All rights reserved. The KPMG name, logo and cutting through complexity are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International. 15
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