Q Manpower. Employment Outlook Survey Romania. A Manpower Research Report

Transcription

1 Manpower Q3 9 Employment Outlook Survey Romania A Manpower Research Report

2 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Romania Contents Romania Employment Outlook Regional Comparisons Sector Comparisons Global Employment Outlook Survey Respondents by Region - Americas Survey Respondents by Region - Asia Pacific Survey Respondents by Region - EMEA About the Survey 17Q3/9 8 About Manpower 18

3 Romania Employment Outlook The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey for the third quarter 9 was conducted by interviewing a representative sample of 753 employers in Romania. All survey participants were asked, How do you anticipate total employment at your location to change in the three months to the end of September 9 as compared to the current quarter? Romanian employers are pessimistic about hiring prospects for Quarter 3 9. While 14% expect to increase headcount, 21% predict a decrease and 64% anticipate no change. Based on these figures, the Net Employment Outlook is a disappointing -7%. Comparison with the previous quarter reveals slightly weaker hiring intentions, with a 3 percentage point decline in the Outlook. However, year-over-year, employers report a steep decline in optimism, reflected in a 33 percentage point decrease. Throughout this report, we use the term Net Employment Outlook. This figure is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating total employment to increase, and subtracting from this, the percentage expecting to see a decrease in employment at their location in the next quarter. The result of this calculation is the. Increase Decrease No change Don t Know % % % % % 3rd quarter nd quarter st quarter th quarter rd quarter nd quarter

4 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Romania Regional Comparisons Employers in all eight regions expect negative Outlooks for Quarter 3 9. The gloomiest hiring prospects are reported by employers in the South-West, where the is -22%. There are also downbeat forecasts from employers in the Center and South-East regions, both with Outlooks of -9%. The least pessimistic Outlook is in the West, where employers are more uncertain about hiring prospects, reporting an Outlook of -2%. Quarter-over-quarter, hiring intentions have weakened in six regions and are unchanged in a seventh the South. Employers in the South-West and the North-East report considerably weaker Outlooks, with declines of 17 and 12 percentage points, respectively. In the West, meanwhile, employers report a sharp improvement of 25 percentage points. Year-over-year, hiring prospects have weakened sharply in all regions. The most notable decline is reported by South-East employers, where the Outlook decreases by 51 percentage points. In the North- West, the Outlook is 39 percentage points weaker and in the South it declines by 36 percentage points. Even in the West, where the decline is least pronounced, the Outlook declines by a steep 22 percentage points. Bucharest & Ilfov Center North-East North-West South South-East South-West West Bucharest & Ilfov -6% Center -9% Employers in Bucharest & Ilfov expect downbeat hiring activity in Quarter 3 9. They report a Net Employment Outlook of -6%. The current Outlook reflects a slight 4 percentage point decline quarter-overquarter. Year-over-year, the Outlook is 32 percentage points weaker. In the Center, employers expect the labor market to struggle during the upcoming quarter, reporting a Net Employment Outlook of -9%. Quarter-over-quarter, the Outlook is a moderate 6 percentage points weaker, while year-over-year, there has been a steep 33 percentage point decline

5 North-East -5% North-West -4% With a of -5%, North-East employers are forecasting a dull hiring climate for the upcoming quarter. Their assessment of hiring prospects has weakened considerably quarter-over-quarter, with the Outlook declining by 12 percentage points. Year-over-year, the Outlook declines by a sharp 28 percentage points. Job seekers in the North-West face a muted hiring environment in Quarter 3 9, with employers in the region reporting a of -4%. While the Outlook is relatively stable quarter-overquarter, it declines by a steep 39 percentage points year-over-year South -6% South-East -9% For the second quarter in succession, employers in the South predict a slumping hiring climate, with a of -6%. Year-over-year the regional Outlook declines by a steep 36 percentage points. In the South-East, employers forecast weak hiring intentions for the forthcoming quarter. They report a of -9%. The Outlook has weakened by a considerable 9 percentage points quarter-over-quarter, and declines by a very steep 51 percentage points year-over-year

6 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Romania South-West -22% West -2% Job seekers in the South-West face dim hiring prospects over the upcoming quarter. Employers report a gloomy of -22%. The Outlook declines by a considerable 17 percentage points quarter-over-quarter and decreases by a sharp 24 percentage points year-over-year. In the West, employers report mixed signals for the labor market in the forthcoming quarter, with a Net Employment Outlook of -2%. Unlike elsewhere in Romania, hiring intentions have improved quarter-overquarter, with a sharp increase of 25 percentage points in the Outlook. However, year-over-year, the Outlook is 22 percentage points weaker

7 Sector Comparisons Slight headcount gains are forecast during Quarter 3 9 for three of the industry sectors. In the Construction sector, there may be some limited opportunities for job seekers, with employers reporting a of +3%. The same is true for the Restaurants & Hotels and the Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Business Services sectors, with Outlooks of +2% and +1%, respectively. Elsewhere, however, the hiring climate is likely to be weak. Dismal prospects are reported by employers in the Electricity, Gas & Water Supply sector, with an Outlook of -%. A gloomy hiring climate is also reported for the Transport, Storage & Communication sector, with an Outlook of -15%. Quarter-over-quarter, the Outlook improves by a considerable 12 percentage points in the Construction sector, and there are slight increases reported in three additional sectors. However, there are weaker Outlooks in six sectors. The steepest decline of 28 percentage points is reported for the Electricity, Gas & Water Supply sector. Year-over-year, hiring intentions are weaker in all sectors. The decline in optimism does vary considerably, however, ranging from the moderate decrease of 6 percentage points in the Outlook reported in the Restaurants & Hotels sector, to the steep 52 percentage point decrease reported by Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry & Fishing sector employers. A steep decline of 47 percentage points is also reported by Construction sector employers, while in the Manufacturing sector there is a 42 percentage point decrease. Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry & Fishing Construction Electricity, Gas & Water Supply Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Business Services Manufacturing Mining & Quarrying Public & Social Restaurants & Hotels Transport, Storage & Communication Wholesale & Retail Trade Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry & Fishing -5% Sector employers expect muted hiring activity during Quarter 3 9, reporting a Net Employment Outlook of -5%. Hiring intentions in the sector are moderately weaker quarter-over-quarter, with a decline of 7 percentage points in the Outlook. Year-overyear, optimism has collapsed, and the Outlook is 52 percentage points weaker. Construction +3% Some limited headcount gains are predicted for the Construction sector during Quarter 3 9. With a of +3%, employers report a considerable 12 percentage point quarter-over-quarter improvement. However, when compared to the same quarter in 8, the Outlook declines by a steep 47 percentage points

8 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Romania Electricity, Gas & Water -% Prospects for job seekers in the sector in Quarter 3 9 are bleak. Employers report a Net Employment Outlook of -%. Hiring intentions have weakened sharply both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, with declines in the Outlook of 28 and percentage points, respectively. Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Business Services +1% Flat hiring activity is anticipated in the sector during the forthcoming quarter. Employers identify some limited opportunities to grow headcount with a Net Employment Outlook of +1%. Quarter-over-quarter, the sector Outlook remains relatively stable, but year-overyear it has declined by a steep 31 percentage points Valoarea zero a Previziunii Nete de Angajare nu va fi reprezentată grafic. Manufacturing -11% Gloomy hiring plans are anticipated in the sector, with employers reporting a of -11% for Quarter 3 9. Hiring intentions are a moderate 5 percentage points weaker compared to Quarter 2 9, while year-over-year, the Outlook declines by a steep 42 percentage points. Mining & Quarrying -12% Job seekers face a dim hiring climate in the sector during Quarter 3 9. Employers report a Net Employment Outlook of -12%, which remains relatively stable when compared to the previous quarter. Yearover-year, hiring expectations are considerably weaker, and the Outlook declines by 14 percentage points

9 Public & Social-4% Muted hiring prospects are reported by employers in the sector for Quarter 3 9. The Net Employment Outlook stands at -4%, having declined by a moderate 6 percentage points quarter-over-quarter and by a steep 25 percentage points year-over-year. Restaurants & Hotels +2% There may be some limited headcount gains in the sector during Quarter 3 9, according to employers who report a of +2%. Hiring intentions in the sector have improved by a slight 3 percentage points quarter-over-quarter, but year-overyear the Outlook is 6 percentage points weaker Transport, Storage & Communication -15% A of -15% indicates that sector employers forecast gloomy hiring prospects for Quarter 3 9. The Outlook weakens by 3 percentage points quarter-over-quarter and by a steep 25 percentage points year-over-year. Wholesale & Retail Trade 5% Sector employers forecast a sluggish hiring climate for Quarter 3 9, with a of -5%. The Outlook declines by a slight 3 percentage points when compared to Quarter 2 9, but year-over-year the employers forecast is a sharp 34 percentage points weaker

10 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Romania Regional and International Comparisons Americas Argentina Canada Columbia Costa Rica Guatemala Mexico Peru United States % % % (12) 1 6 (1) 1 5 (-3) 1-1 (-4) 1-16 (-15) 1 27 (17) 1 16 (12) 1 Q3 8 Q2 9 Q (-5) 1 6 (-3) 1 5 Qtr on Qtr Change Q9 to Q9 6 (2) 1 1 (-2) 1 2 (-2) 1 1 () 1-14 (-14) 1-1 Yr on Yr Change Q8 to Q9 - (-) 1-35 Asia Pacific Australia China Hong Kong India Japan New Zealand Singapore Taiwan Q3 8 Q2 9 Q3 9 % % % (22) 1 1 (-1) 1 (2) 1 12 (12) 1 3 (4) 1 2 (3) 1 27 (24) 1-3 (-3) 1 (-3) 1 47 (43) 1 19 (25) 1 23 (19) 1 9 (16) 1 12 (-5) 1-9 (-6) 1 12 (14) 1-9 (-) 1-6 (-5) 1 37 (37) 1-43 (-45) 1 5 (5) 1 25 (21) 1-5 (-) 1 12 (5) 1 Qtr on Qtr Change Q9 to Q9-1 (3) 1-1 (-1) 1 3 () 1 4 (-6) 1-21 (-1) 1 3 (5) 1 48 () 1 17 (15) 1 Yr on Yr Change Q8 to Q9 - (-) 1 - (-9) 1-27 (-27) 1-24 (-24) 1-18 (-22) 1-18 (-19) 1-32 (-32) 1-13 (-16) 1 EMEA* Austria Belgium Czech Republic France UK South Africa % Q3 8 Q2 9 Q3 9 7 (6) 1 7 (7) (3) 1 % % Qtr on Qtr Change Q9 to Q9 Yr on Yr Change Q8 to Q9 4 (2) 1-1 (-2) 1-5 (-4) 1-8 (-8) 1 (2) 1-1 (-1) 1-1 (-3) 1-8 (-8) (-2) 1-3 (-4) 1-1 (-2) 1-7 (-7) 1 Germany 11 (9) 1 2 () 1-2 (-4) 1-4 (-4) 1-13 (-13) 1 Greece Hungary -4 Ireland 3 (-1) 1-14 (-15) 1-7 (-11) 1 7 (4) 1 - (-) 1 Italy 3 () 1-5 (-7) 1-3 (-6) 1 2 (1) 1-6 (-6) 1 Netherlands 8 (9) 1 4 (4) 1-1 () 1-5 (-4) 1-9 (-9) 1 Norway 16 (11) 1 2 (1) 1 15 () 1 13 (9) 1-1 (-1) 1 Poland Romania Spain (-3) 1-9 (-11) 1-5 (-8) 1 4 (3) 1-5 (-5) 1 Sweden 13 () 1-3 (-5) 1 1 (-2) 1 4 (3) 1-12 (-12) 1 Switzerland 3 (6) 1 5 (2) 1-1 (2) 1-6 () 1-4 (-4) 1 7 (5) 1-6 (-6) 1-4 (-6) 1 2 () 1-11 (-11) *EMEA Europe, Middle East and Africa 1. The numbers between braketsare when adjusted to remove the impact of seasonal variations in hiring activity. Please note that this data is not available for all countries as a minimum of 16 quarters worth of data are required. 8

11 Over 7, employers have been interviewed across 34 countries and territories to measure anticipated employment trends* between July and September 9. Employers in Hungary are surveyed for the first time this quarter, expanding the reach of the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey to four of the most important economies in Eastern Europe. Employers in 11 of the 34 countries and territories Manpower surveyed expect to add to their workforces in Quarter 3 9. However, where year-over-year comparisons can be made, hiring expectations are decidedly weaker in all countries and territories surveyed compared to 12 months ago. Notably, employers in 17 countries and territories are reporting the weakest hiring plans since the surveys were established there by Manpower. Although weaker than historical patterns, employment prospects are most favorable in India, Norway, Poland, Peru, Singapore and Taiwan. Employer hiring expectations are weakest in Ireland, Spain, Greece, Romania, Italy, Japan and the United Kingdom. * Commentary is based on seasonally adjusted data where available. On a regional basis, employment prospects are mixed; a general downward trend continues, with Outlooks declining in all countries and territories in a year-overyear comparison. However, there are some indications of labor markets beginning to stabilize. In a quarterover-quarter comparison, s have improved in 12 countries and territories, and have remained steady in five others. In the Asia Pacific region, job prospects have improved in four of the eight countries and territories surveyed. In the Europe, Middle East & Africa (EMEA) region, Outlooks decline from three months ago in nine of 17 countries where quarter-over-quarter data is available, with employers in Norway, Ireland, the Czech Republic, Italy, Poland, Spain and Sweden anticipating an improved hiring pace. In the Americas, employers in Peru remain cautiously optimistic; however, employers in each of the region s other seven countries report negative hiring intentions in the next three months. Survey Respondents by Region America 55% Asia Pacific 22% EMEA 23% Research for the Quarter 3 9 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey involved surveying over 7, human resource directors and senior hiring managers from public and private organizations worldwide: 55% of the respondents came from eight countries in the Americas; 23% from 18 countries in EMEA; and 22% from eight countries and territories across Asia Pacific. 9

12 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Romania Americas Nearly 39, interviews have been conducted across Argentina, Canada, Colombia, Costa Rica, Guatemala, Mexico, Peru and the United States to measure employment prospects for Quarter 3 9. Negative s are reported in seven of the eight countries surveyed. Compared to three months ago, the hiring pace is expected to slow in every country except Mexico, with employers across all Mexican industry sectors expecting to take on more staff in the next three months. The hiring pace is also expected to slow from 12 months ago in each of the seven countries where year-over-year data is available. The subdued hiring pace expected in the United States remains unchanged from the second quarter. Although, employers in Peru are forecasting the only positive hiring intentions in the region, the Outlook is the country s least optimistic reported to date. Thirdquarter hiring intentions are weakest in Argentina, Canada and Mexico. In addition to Peru, the Outlooks for Argentina, Colombia, Costa Rica and Guatemala are the least optimistic reported to date, and for the second consecutive quarter employers in the United States report the gloomiest Outlook since the 1982 recession. Argentina Canada Columbia Costa Rica

13 Guatemala Mexic Valoarea zero a Previziunii Nete de Angajare nu va fi reprezentată grafic. Peru United States

14 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Romania Asia Pacific Nearly 16, interviews have been conducted across the Asia Pacific region to measure anticipated hiring activity between July and September 9. Employer confidence is improving in some labor markets, with positive hiring intentions reported by employers in five of the eight countries and territories surveyed. Notable improvements are reported by employers in Singapore and Taiwan where the Outlooks are considerably stronger compared to three months ago. However, the year-over-year hiring pace is expected to remain decidedly weaker throughout the region, with employers in China, India and Japan Australia reporting their least optimistic forecasts since the surveys began in these countries. In India s key Service industry sector, 11 percent of the employers indicated they would reduce staff in response to weaker demand from offshore clients, contributing to the moderately weaker national forecast. Despite the relatively weak forecast for the Indian market, employers there remain the most optimistic in the region. Elsewhere, employers in Singapore, Taiwan, China and Australia are anticipating the region s most favorable hiring activity for the upcoming quarter, although the Outlooks remain below historical patterns. China Valoarea zero a Previziunii Nete de Angajare nu va fi reprezentată grafic. Hong Kong India Valoarea zero a Previziunii Nete de Angajare nu va fi reprezentată grafic. 12

15 Japan New Zealand Singapore Taiwan

16 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Romania EMEA Nearly 16, interviews have been conducted with employers across 18 countries to measure anticipated employment trends for Quarter 3 9. Of the countries surveyed in the Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) region, only employers in Norway, Poland, Switzerland, South Africa and the Czech Republic are reporting positive, but modest third-quarter hiring activity. Hungarian employers are surveyed for the first time this quarter and, like the majority of their counterparts in the region, are reporting negative hiring expectations. Where year-over-year comparisons are possible, all countries expect cutbacks. Where quarterover-quarter comparisons can be made, the forecasts improve in seven of 17 countries. Job prospects in the Manufacturing industry sector have continued to Austria deteriorate across Continental Europe and South Africa and are contributing to the first negative hiring forecast of German employers in three years. Employers in Norway and Poland are forecasting the most favorable hiring activity, while employers in Ireland and Spain are the least optimistic for the quarter ahead. Furthermore, employers in Austria, Switzerland, France, Greece, the Netherlands, Romania, South Africa and the UK report their least optimistic hiring plans since the surveys were launched in these countries. Belgium Czech Republic France

17 Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Ungaria s-a alăturat studiului în Trim Italy Netherlands Norway Poland

18 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Romania Romania Spain Sweden Switzerland South Africa UK

19 About the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted quarterly to measure employers intentions to increase or decrease the number of employees in their workforce during the next quarter. The survey has been running for more than 45 years and is one of the most trusted surveys of employment activity in the world. Various factors underpin the success of the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey: Unique: It is unparalleled in its size, scope, longevity and area of focus. Projective: The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is the most extensive, forward-looking employment survey in the world, asking employers to forecast employment over the next quarter. In contrast, other surveys and studies focus on retrospective data to report on what occurred in the past. Focused: For more than four decades, the survey has derived all of its information from a single question. Independent: The survey is conducted with a representative sample of employers from throughout the countries in which it is conducted. The survey participants are not derived from Manpower s customer base. Robust: The survey is based on interviews with over 7, public and private employers across 34 countries and territories to measure anticipated employment trends each quarter. This sample allows for analysis to be performed across specific sectors and regions to provide more detailed information. Survey Question All employers participating in the survey worldwide are asked the same question, How do you anticipate total employment at your location to change in the three months to the end of September 9 as compared to the current quarter? Throughout this report, we use the term Net Employment Outlook. This figure is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating an increase in hiring activity and subtracting from this the percentage of employers expecting to see a decrease in employment at their location in the next quarter. The result of this calculation is the Net Employment Outlook. Seasonal Adjustment Seasonal adjustments have been applied to the data for Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, China, France, Germany, Hong Kong, India, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, the United Kingdom and the United States to provide additional insight into the survey data. These adjustments make it possible to review the data without the employment fluctuations that normally occur at the same time each year, thus providing a clearer picture of the data over time. Manpower intends to add seasonal adjustments to the data for other countries in the future, as more historical data is compiled. Note that in Quarter 2 8, Manpower adopted the TRAMO-SEATS method of seasonal adjustment for data. Methodology The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted using a validated methodology, in accordance with the highest standards in market research. The research team for the 34 countries and territories where the survey is currently conducted includes Manpower s internal research team and Infocorp Ltd. The survey has been structured to be representative of each national economy. The margin of error for all national, regional and global data is not greater than +/- 3.9%. The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey for Romania is conducted by the research team of Infocorp Ltd. and is based on 753 interviews of employers. The margin of error at national level is not greater than +/- 3.6%. 17

20 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Romania History of the Survey st generation of the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey launched in the United States and Canada Manpower s United Kingdom operation launches the equivalent of the United States survey, naming the report the Quarterly Survey of Employment Prospects. The survey adopts the same forward looking research format as the United States survey and is the first of its kind in Europe nd generation of Manpower s Employment Outlook Survey launched in the United States and Canada. Research methodology is updated to evolve with advancements in the field of market research. 2 Manpower United Kingdom s Quarterly Survey of Employment Prospects is updated to adopt an enhanced research methodology. Manpower s operations in Mexico and Ireland launch the survey in their respective countries. 3 3rd generation of the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is launched, expanding the program to a total of 18 countries worldwide: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom and United States. 4 Manpower operations in New Zealand launch the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey. 5 Manpower operations in China, India, Switzerland, and Taiwan launch the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey. 6 Manpower operations in Costa Rica and Peru join the survey program. Surveys in Australia, Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, Singapore, Spain and Sweden add seasonally adjusted data in the third quarter. Manpower operations in South Africa launch the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey. 7 Manpower operations in Argentina join the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey. The survey in New Zealand adds seasonally adjusted data in the first quarter. 8 Manpower operations in Colombia, the Czech Republic, Greece, Guatemala, Poland and Romania join the survey program. China and Taiwan add seasonally adjusted data in the second quarter. India and Switzerland add seasonally adjusted data in the third quarter. 9 Manpower operations in Hungary are surveyed for the first time this quarter, expanding the reach of the survey to four of the most important economies in Eastern Europe About Manpower Inc. Manpower Inc. (NYSE: MAN) is a world leader in the employment services industry; creating and delivering services that enable its clients to win in the changing world of work. Founded in 1948, the $22 billion company offers employers a range of services for the entire employment and business cycle including permanent, temporary and contract recruitment; employee assessment and selection; training; outplacement; outsourcing and consulting. Manpower s worldwide network of 4, offices in 82 countries and territories enables the company to meet the needs of its, clients per year, including small and medium size enterprises in all industry sectors, as well as the world s largest multinational corporations. The focus of Manpower s work is on raising productivity through improved quality, efficiency and cost-reduction across their total workforce, enabling clients to concentrate on their core business activities. Manpower Inc. operates under five brands: Manpower, Manpower Professional, Elan, Jefferson Wells and Right Management. More information on Manpower Inc. is available at www. manpower.com. About Manpower Romania Manpower Romania is one of the leaders in the employment services industry; creating and delivering services that enable its clients to win in the changing world of work. The company is specialized in: permanent, temporary and contract recruitment; payroll; contract administration; outsourcing and consulting. Manpower Professional is Manpower s brand delivering an entire range of services: recruitment, temporary working, selection, outsourcing and consulting on middle & top managers and specialists. Our extensive resources, worldclass client list, and reputation attract a diverse group of talented candidates, with every level of education, skills and experience ranging from permanent direct hire to one-day contracts. Manpower it is present in Romania from 3, with branches in Bucharest, Timisoara, Brasov, Cluj-Napoca, Iasi, Craiova and Ploiesti. For more information, you can access: 18

21 Manpower Romania, Str. Ion Câmpineanu, Nr. 11, Union International Center Etaj 2, Sector 1, 31 Bucureşti, România Tel: Fax: Manpower Inc. All rights reserved.